Maxwell Ratings: Updated odds of each quarterfinal team winning title

By Loren Maxwell

For AJC.com

AAAAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

North Gwinnett versus Mill Creek, 444,927 times

Norcross versus Parkview, 398,896 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

North Gwinnett versus Norcross, 433,779 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): North Gwinnett (0.236), Parkview (0.237), Mill Creek (0.263), and North Cobb (0.321)

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Norcross

100.31

85.13

523,552

North Gwinnett

93.17

84.98

279,323

Camden County

87.14

89.52

67,117

Mill Creek

80.23

86.89

33,483

Parkview

80.28

88.43

27,355

Lovejoy

80.81

89.10

27,010

Colquitt County

80.05

88.50

25,887

North Cobb

77.24

88.11

16,273

Region

Wins

7-AAAAAA

836,358

1-AAAAAA

93,004

8-AAAAAA

27,355

2-AAAAAA

27,010

4-AAAAAA

16,273

3-AAAAAA

-

5-AAAAAA

-

6-AAAAAA

-

AAAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Northside (Warner Robins) versus Stephenson, 464,047 times

Gainesville versus Allatoona, 568,130 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Gainesville versus Northside (Warner Robins), 256,805 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): Stephenson (0.124), Harris County (0.124), Allatoona (0.235), and Gainesville (0.286)

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Northside (Warner Robins) 81.18 69.56

436,630

Gainesville 69.83 65.58

158,853

Allatoona 71.23 66.76

147,350

Stephenson 70.83 70.73

109,000

Tucker 70.55 73.11

73,513

Whitewater 64.65 70.33

37,182

Ware County 65.75 71.67

35,624

Harris County 51.48 71.70

1,848

Region

Wins

2-AAAAA

436,630

6-AAAAA

182,513

8-AAAAA

158,853

5-AAAAA

147,350

4-AAAAA

37,182

3-AAAAA

35,624

1-AAAAA

1,848

7-AAAAA

-

AAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Sandy Creek versus Monroe Area, 420,303 times

Ridgeland versus Marist, 534,288 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Sandy Creek versus Marist, 286,803 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): South Effingham (0.012), Mary Persons (0.252), and Monroe Area (0.327)

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Sandy Creek 80.58 62.72

495,325

Burke County 73.12 67.01

178,327

Marist 71.18 66.54

165,267

Ridgeland 68.01 67.18

113,266

Stockbridge 62.59 70.68

28,067

Monroe Area 53.13 64.83

9,368

Mary Persons 56.45 71.03

7,927

South Effingham 48.25 66.46

2,453

Region

Wins

5-AAAA

495,325

3-AAAA

180,780

6-AAAA

165,267

7-AAAA

113,266

4-AAAA

28,067

8-AAAA

9,368

2-AAAA

7,927

1-AAAA

-

AAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Buford versus Thomson, 408,105 times

Peach County versus Washington County, 423,950 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Thomson versus Washington County, 245,349 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): None (North Hall is closest with 0.392)

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Thomson 73.41 65.37

323,805

Washington County 70.26 63.83

261,937

Buford 68.10 67.43

134,731

Carver (Columbus) 65.91 68.16

86,900

Peach County 61.73 64.94

68,674

St. Pius X 61.93 67.23

52,961

Cartersville 63.16 68.92

46,816

North Hall 57.33 66.40

24,176

Region

Wins

3-AAA

585,742

7-AAA

158,907

2-AAA

155,574

6-AAA

52,961

5-AAA

46,816

1-AAA

-

4-AAA

-

8-AAA

-

AA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Fitzgerald versus Greater Atlanta Christian, 277,898 times

Lovett versus Calhoun, 312,399 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Fitzgerald versus Calhoun, 177,558 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): Early County (0.325)

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Calhoun 75.65 61.91

457,879

Brooks County 70.63 63.58

232,313

Fitzgerald 60.49 61.92

88,992

Jefferson 60.20 62.01

83,953

Greater Atlanta Christian 55.26 61.60

38,767

Lovett 56.87 63.25

37,068

Lamar County 56.81 63.26

36,547

Early County 53.34 62.29

24,481

Region

Wins

7-AA

457,879

1-AA

345,786

8-AA

83,953

6-AA

75,835

4-AA

36,547

2-AA

-

3-AA

-

5-AA

-

A-Public

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Lincoln County versus Dooly County, 349,860 times

Emanuel County Institute versus Wilcox County, 675,566 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Lincoln County versus Emanuel County Institute, 316,399 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): Trion (0.197)

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Emanuel County Institute 56.35 43.58

439,887

Lincoln County 52.64 46.29

244,420

Wilcox County 47.34 45.26

128,847

Wilkinson County 48.58 47.64

121,460

Dooly County 39.34 46.41

31,961

Seminole County 35.99 47.24

13,755

Trion 37.88 49.74

12,853

Marion County 34.56 48.04

6,817

Region

Wins

3-A

439,887

7-A

365,880

2-A

128,847

4-A

38,778

1-A

13,755

6-A

12,853

8-A

-

5-A

-

A-Private

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Athens Academy versus Landmark Christian, 361,325 times

Walker versus Eagle’s Christian Landing, 469,294 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Athens Academy versus Eagle’s Christian Landing, 296,854 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): George Walton Academy (0.289)

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Eagle’s Landing Christian 64.62 45.90

645,584

Athens Academy 51.16 50.80

116,945

Prince Avenue Christian 48.23 51.78

65,712

Landmark Christian 45.87 50.25

55,140

Walker 46.67 52.00

46,458

George Walton Academy 45.68 52.33

37,186

Savannah Christian 43.26 53.94

17,461

First Presbyterian 40.51 52.09

15,514

Region

Wins

5-A

700,724

8-A

219,843

6-A

46,458

3-A

17,461

7-A

15,514

1-A

-

2-A

-

4-A

-

20 comments Add your comment

Fan

November 27th, 2012
9:18 pm

Whether you disagree or agree with all the ratings and ranking I always enjoy looking at them. But im sure there will be people complaining about them no matter how you explain how you got the results.
GO PACKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Warrior Nation

November 27th, 2012
9:18 pm

We are always the underdog. Let that be your motivation, boys!

NG Bulldogs

November 27th, 2012
10:11 pm

Great. North Gwinnett is much better as the underdawg. We would feel much more comfortable if the computer had predicted Lovejoy to pound us into submission.

It will be a great game Friday. Lovejoy is an outstanding football team if you have not seen them and is entirely capable of winning state. All of these quarter finals in AAAAAA will be tough and I would say each of the 8 teams has a nearly equal chance of winning at this point.

sportsnut

November 27th, 2012
10:17 pm

NG Bulldog == CalPreps and MaxPreps pick North 31-26.

BullDawg Rick

November 27th, 2012
10:42 pm

Been saying ALL year for years that the BEST high school football is in Gwinnett County.. Possibly in the Nation!! 4 outta 8 teams remaining… Not too shabby!!

Suwanee 0wns

November 28th, 2012
1:54 am

There are FIVE (5) Gwinnett teams remaining. Buford is also in Gwinnett, and I would give them as much chance of winning another State Championship as any other team in the state in any classification.

The fact that Buford is only given a 13% chance of winning AAA shows you right there that these probabilities are missing some sort of very important predictive variables. Perhaps something along the lines of previous playoff wins by the same head coach. It seems to me that Colquitt has a better chance than 2% also and a coaching variable might account for that.

But, thank you very much Mr. Maxwell for computing these and posting them. They are very interesting.

Alex

November 28th, 2012
6:16 am

@Suwanee 0wns, 6 Gwinnett teams GAC is still in. That being said I believe BullDawg Rick was referring to the largest classification.

And then there were four in 6A

November 28th, 2012
6:17 am

North Gwinett
Mill Creek
Norcross
Parkview

Jacketaxe

November 28th, 2012
7:30 am

So far so good, need 3 more wins.

Go Big Blue

November 28th, 2012
8:41 am

Would love to see NSWR against Gainesville!

Northside Dawg

November 28th, 2012
12:00 pm

I don’t know if Northside could stop DeShaun Watson (70% comp pct, 3000 yds passing, 1200 yds rushing), but no use worrying about that at this point in time.

itsonlywrite

November 28th, 2012
12:52 pm

man… NSWR and Gainesville… that would be epic… then again, if we get to the finals, it would be epic against any of the teams on the left side of the except for Ware Co. b/c ppl are expecting them to lose to Stephenson. But as always, these predictions dont mean a dang thang b/c it predicted Gainesville to lose in the 1st and 2nd round due to losing 2 games at the end of the season… no matter, one game at a time.

#ElephantNation

Dylan

November 28th, 2012
10:21 pm

If NSWR beat Tucker, they WONT beat Stephenson.

cat doc

November 29th, 2012
8:39 am

Camden is ready, bring it on Norcross.

Blue devil fan

November 29th, 2012
12:50 pm

COUPLE OF CHARTER BUSES OF FANS, THE BAND BUS AND THE NORCROSS TEAM HAVE LEFT METRO ATL!!!!! CAMDEN HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HS

November 29th, 2012
10:46 pm

Wow…

Just cannot get over how much easier the road is to the Dome in ‘A’ with the divisions split between public and private

sportsnut

November 30th, 2012
12:51 pm

This makes the Lovejoy vs North Gwinnett game more special for me. If Lovejoy wins, they beat the odds. Those are some mighty strong odds.

lhsalum33

December 1st, 2012
7:15 pm

Wow…the computer went 1-3 in 6A…forget region schedules…when you dominate you dominate…let’s Lovejoy

sportsnut

December 2nd, 2012
9:57 am

What were those odds again ?

eagleforlife

December 3rd, 2012
1:52 pm

Guess NSWR doesn’t have to worry about beating Stephenson after beating Tucker. LOL. Go Eagles!!