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Prep Zone: High School Sports

Maxwell Ratings: Updated odds of each quarterfinal team winning title

8:43 pm November 27, 2012, by Todd Holcomb

By Loren Maxwell

For AJC.com

AAAAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

North Gwinnett versus Mill Creek, 444,927 times

Norcross versus Parkview, 398,896 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

North Gwinnett versus Norcross, 433,779 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): North Gwinnett (0.236), Parkview (0.237), Mill Creek (0.263), and North Cobb (0.321)

Team Rating Draw

Wins
Norcross

100.31

85.13

523,552
North Gwinnett

93.17

84.98

279,323
Camden County

87.14

89.52

67,117
Mill Creek

80.23

86.89

33,483
Parkview

80.28

88.43

27,355
Lovejoy

80.81

89.10

27,010
Colquitt County

80.05

88.50

25,887
North Cobb

77.24

88.11

16,273
Region

Wins
7-AAAAAA

836,358
1-AAAAAA

93,004
8-AAAAAA

27,355
2-AAAAAA

27,010
4-AAAAAA

16,273
3-AAAAAA

-
5-AAAAAA

-
6-AAAAAA

-

AAAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Northside (Warner Robins) versus Stephenson, 464,047 times

Gainesville versus Allatoona, 568,130 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Gainesville versus Northside (Warner Robins), 256,805 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): Stephenson (0.124), Harris County (0.124), Allatoona (0.235), and Gainesville (0.286)

Team Rating Draw

Wins
Northside (Warner Robins) 81.18 69.56

436,630
Gainesville 69.83 65.58

158,853
Allatoona 71.23 66.76

147,350
Stephenson 70.83 70.73

109,000
Tucker 70.55 73.11

73,513
Whitewater 64.65 70.33

37,182
Ware County 65.75 71.67

35,624
Harris County 51.48 71.70

1,848
Region

Wins
2-AAAAA

436,630
6-AAAAA

182,513
8-AAAAA

158,853
5-AAAAA

147,350
4-AAAAA

37,182
3-AAAAA

35,624
1-AAAAA

1,848
7-AAAAA

-

AAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Sandy Creek versus Monroe Area, 420,303 times

Ridgeland versus Marist, 534,288 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Sandy Creek versus Marist, 286,803 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): South Effingham (0.012), Mary Persons (0.252), and Monroe Area (0.327)

Team Rating Draw

Wins
Sandy Creek 80.58 62.72

495,325
Burke County 73.12 67.01

178,327
Marist 71.18 66.54

165,267
Ridgeland 68.01 67.18

113,266
Stockbridge 62.59 70.68

28,067
Monroe Area 53.13 64.83

9,368
Mary Persons 56.45 71.03

7,927
South Effingham 48.25 66.46

2,453
Region

Wins
5-AAAA

495,325
3-AAAA

180,780
6-AAAA

165,267
7-AAAA

113,266
4-AAAA

28,067
8-AAAA

9,368
2-AAAA

7,927
1-AAAA

-

AAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Buford versus Thomson, 408,105 times

Peach County versus Washington County, 423,950 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Thomson versus Washington County, 245,349 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): None (North Hall is closest with 0.392)

Team Rating Draw

Wins
Thomson 73.41 65.37

323,805
Washington County 70.26 63.83

261,937
Buford 68.10 67.43

134,731
Carver (Columbus) 65.91 68.16

86,900
Peach County 61.73 64.94

68,674
St. Pius X 61.93 67.23

52,961
Cartersville 63.16 68.92

46,816
North Hall 57.33 66.40

24,176
Region

Wins
3-AAA

585,742
7-AAA

158,907
2-AAA

155,574
6-AAA

52,961
5-AAA

46,816
1-AAA

-
4-AAA

-
8-AAA

-

AA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Fitzgerald versus Greater Atlanta Christian, 277,898 times

Lovett versus Calhoun, 312,399 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Fitzgerald versus Calhoun, 177,558 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): Early County (0.325)

Team Rating Draw

Wins
Calhoun 75.65 61.91

457,879
Brooks County 70.63 63.58

232,313
Fitzgerald 60.49 61.92

88,992
Jefferson 60.20 62.01

83,953
Greater Atlanta Christian 55.26 61.60

38,767
Lovett 56.87 63.25

37,068
Lamar County 56.81 63.26

36,547
Early County 53.34 62.29

24,481
Region

Wins
7-AA

457,879
1-AA

345,786
8-AA

83,953
6-AA

75,835
4-AA

36,547
2-AA

-
3-AA

-
5-AA

-

A-Public

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Lincoln County versus Dooly County, 349,860 times

Emanuel County Institute versus Wilcox County, 675,566 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Lincoln County versus Emanuel County Institute, 316,399 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): Trion (0.197)

Team Rating Draw

Wins
Emanuel County Institute 56.35 43.58

439,887
Lincoln County 52.64 46.29

244,420
Wilcox County 47.34 45.26

128,847
Wilkinson County 48.58 47.64

121,460
Dooly County 39.34 46.41

31,961
Seminole County 35.99 47.24

13,755
Trion 37.88 49.74

12,853
Marion County 34.56 48.04

6,817
Region

Wins
3-A

439,887
7-A

365,880
2-A

128,847
4-A

38,778
1-A

13,755
6-A

12,853
8-A

-
5-A

-

A-Private

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Athens Academy versus Landmark Christian, 361,325 times

Walker versus Eagle’s Christian Landing, 469,294 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Athens Academy versus Eagle’s Christian Landing, 296,854 times

Cinderella teams (any team with 0.333 or less): George Walton Academy (0.289)

Team Rating Draw

Wins
Eagle’s Landing Christian 64.62 45.90

645,584
Athens Academy 51.16 50.80

116,945
Prince Avenue Christian 48.23 51.78

65,712
Landmark Christian 45.87 50.25

55,140
Walker 46.67 52.00

46,458
George Walton Academy 45.68 52.33

37,186
Savannah Christian 43.26 53.94

17,461
First Presbyterian 40.51 52.09

15,514
Region

Wins
5-A

700,724
8-A

219,843
6-A

46,458
3-A

17,461
7-A

15,514
1-A

-
2-A

-
4-A

-
  • Print

20 comments Add your comment

Fan

November 27th, 2012
9:18 pm

Whether you disagree or agree with all the ratings and ranking I always enjoy looking at them. But im sure there will be people complaining about them no matter how you explain how you got the results.
GO PACKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Warrior Nation

November 27th, 2012
9:18 pm

We are always the underdog. Let that be your motivation, boys!

NG Bulldogs

November 27th, 2012
10:11 pm

Great. North Gwinnett is much better as the underdawg. We would feel much more comfortable if the computer had predicted Lovejoy to pound us into submission.

It will be a great game Friday. Lovejoy is an outstanding football team if you have not seen them and is entirely capable of winning state. All of these quarter finals in AAAAAA will be tough and I would say each of the 8 teams has a nearly equal chance of winning at this point.

sportsnut

November 27th, 2012
10:17 pm

NG Bulldog == CalPreps and MaxPreps pick North 31-26.

BullDawg Rick

November 27th, 2012
10:42 pm

Been saying ALL year for years that the BEST high school football is in Gwinnett County.. Possibly in the Nation!! 4 outta 8 teams remaining… Not too shabby!!

Suwanee 0wns

November 28th, 2012
1:54 am

There are FIVE (5) Gwinnett teams remaining. Buford is also in Gwinnett, and I would give them as much chance of winning another State Championship as any other team in the state in any classification.

The fact that Buford is only given a 13% chance of winning AAA shows you right there that these probabilities are missing some sort of very important predictive variables. Perhaps something along the lines of previous playoff wins by the same head coach. It seems to me that Colquitt has a better chance than 2% also and a coaching variable might account for that.

But, thank you very much Mr. Maxwell for computing these and posting them. They are very interesting.

Alex

November 28th, 2012
6:16 am

@Suwanee 0wns, 6 Gwinnett teams GAC is still in. That being said I believe BullDawg Rick was referring to the largest classification.

And then there were four in 6A

November 28th, 2012
6:17 am

North Gwinett
Mill Creek
Norcross
Parkview

Jacketaxe

November 28th, 2012
7:30 am

So far so good, need 3 more wins.

Go Big Blue

November 28th, 2012
8:41 am

Would love to see NSWR against Gainesville!

Northside Dawg

November 28th, 2012
12:00 pm

I don’t know if Northside could stop DeShaun Watson (70% comp pct, 3000 yds passing, 1200 yds rushing), but no use worrying about that at this point in time.

itsonlywrite

November 28th, 2012
12:52 pm

man… NSWR and Gainesville… that would be epic… then again, if we get to the finals, it would be epic against any of the teams on the left side of the except for Ware Co. b/c ppl are expecting them to lose to Stephenson. But as always, these predictions dont mean a dang thang b/c it predicted Gainesville to lose in the 1st and 2nd round due to losing 2 games at the end of the season… no matter, one game at a time.

#ElephantNation

Dylan

November 28th, 2012
10:21 pm

If NSWR beat Tucker, they WONT beat Stephenson.

cat doc

November 29th, 2012
8:39 am

Camden is ready, bring it on Norcross.

Blue devil fan

November 29th, 2012
12:50 pm

COUPLE OF CHARTER BUSES OF FANS, THE BAND BUS AND THE NORCROSS TEAM HAVE LEFT METRO ATL!!!!! CAMDEN HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HS

November 29th, 2012
10:46 pm

Wow…

Just cannot get over how much easier the road is to the Dome in ‘A’ with the divisions split between public and private

sportsnut

November 30th, 2012
12:51 pm

This makes the Lovejoy vs North Gwinnett game more special for me. If Lovejoy wins, they beat the odds. Those are some mighty strong odds.

lhsalum33

December 1st, 2012
7:15 pm

Wow…the computer went 1-3 in 6A…forget region schedules…when you dominate you dominate…let’s Lovejoy

sportsnut

December 2nd, 2012
9:57 am

What were those odds again ?

eagleforlife

December 3rd, 2012
1:52 pm

Guess NSWR doesn’t have to worry about beating Stephenson after beating Tucker. LOL. Go Eagles!!