Maxwell Ratings: Odds of each team winning state title, round 2
By Loren Maxwell
Special to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Maxwell Ratings were used last week to simulate this year’s playoffs 1,000,000 times starting from the first round.
This week, those odds are recalculated for the second round. A team’s odds go up just for surviving the first round. But a team’s odds also go up or down based on the results of all the games in the first round. A team’s draw might’ve gotten much better, or worse, pending what happened in a strange first week of the post-season.
Below, each team is shown with their rating, the strength of their draw in the tournament, and the chance of winning the state championship.
Cinderella teams are identified as the teams that have mathematically had the least likely results in the tournament so far based on the ratings prior to each round. The scale for likelihood is between 0 and 1 and is calculated from the probability of the team winning and the actual outcome of the game.
AAAAAA
Most Common Semifinal Matchups:
Grayson versus North Cobb, 179,001 times
Norcross versus Colquitt County, 257,016 times
Most Common Championship Matchup:
Grayson versus Norcross, 190,451 times
Cinderella team: Brookwood (0.233)
| Team | Rating | Draw | Wins |
| Norcross | 97.78 | 84.29 | 360,062 |
| Grayson | 91.79 | 83.09 | 204,237 |
| Camden County | 89.37 | 78.77 | 150,931 |
| North Gwinnett | 87.70 | 84.39 | 93,669 |
| Colquitt County | 81.28 | 80.76 | 44,427 |
| South Gwinnett | 84.74 | 87.41 | 25,880 |
| Lovejoy | 79.23 | 82.73 | 23,625 |
| Parkview | 79.92 | 84.20 | 22,758 |
| North Cobb | 76.63 | 80.30 | 20,648 |
| Mill Creek | 77.32 | 81.28 | 18,328 |
| Brookwood | 76.78 | 81.51 | 15,761 |
| West Forsyth | 78.38 | 84.69 | 14,789 |
| Marietta | 73.37 | 84.19 | 4,057 |
| Hughes | 65.49 | 83.09 | 576 |
| Newnan | 64.90 | 84.86 | 249 |
| East Coweta | 55.06 | 87.35 | 3 |
| Region | Wins |
| 7-AAAAAA | 472,060 |
| 8-AAAAAA | 268,636 |
| 1-AAAAAA | 195,358 |
| 4-AAAAAA | 24,705 |
| 2-AAAAAA | 23,625 |
| 6-AAAAAA | 14,789 |
| 3-AAAAAA | 827 |
AAAAA
Most Common Semifinal Matchups:
Northside versus East Paulding, 418,946 times
Kell versus M.L. King, 210,808 times
Most Common Championship Matchup:
M.L. King versus Northside, 162.210 times
Cinderella team: North Paulding (0.198)
| Team | Rating | Draw | Wins |
| Northside (Warner Robins) | 81.23 | 70.42 | 281,918 |
| East Paulding | 80.24 | 69.97 | 256,514 |
| M.L. King | 78.32 | 69.98 | 203,702 |
| Kell | 69.80 | 68.25 | 51,922 |
| Allatoona | 71.66 | 72.13 | 50,938 |
| Ware County | 68.74 | 70.75 | 32,505 |
| Gainesville | 67.52 | 69.27 | 29,267 |
| Tucker | 68.87 | 72.27 | 25,602 |
| Whitewater | 66.00 | 70.10 | 21,044 |
| Warner Robins | 62.94 | 67.62 | 14,997 |
| Thomas County Central | 66.77 | 74.04 | 10,820 |
| Stephenson | 65.51 | 74.50 | 8,626 |
| North Paulding | 64.80 | 72.90 | 7,903 |
| Glynn Academy | 59.85 | 71.63 | 3,160 |
| Union Grove | 57.02 | 73.68 | 867 |
| Harris County | 50.34 | 70.77 | 215 |
| Region | Wins |
| 5-AAAAA | 315,355 |
| 2-AAAAA | 296,915 |
| 6-AAAAA | 237,930 |
| 7-AAAAA | 51,922 |
| 3-AAAAA | 35,665 |
| 8-AAAAA | 29,267 |
| 4-AAAAA | 21,911 |
| 1-AAAAA | 11,035 |
AAAA
Most Common Semifinal Matchups:
Sandy Creek versus Grady, 270,451 times
Ridgeland versus Marist, 268,973 times
Most Common Championship Matchup:
Sandy Creek versus Ridgeland, 249,238 times
Cinderella team: South Effingham (0.064)
| Team | Rating | Draw | Wins |
| Sandy Creek | 83.30 | 61.92 | 558,396 |
| Burke County | 73.94 | 65.89 | 138,672 |
| Ridgeland | 70.05 | 63.86 | 112,407 |
| Marist | 71.13 | 68.65 | 83,290 |
| Carrollton | 68.71 | 69.48 | 48,330 |
| Stockbridge | 63.25 | 67.00 | 21,629 |
| Cairo | 60.51 | 67.18 | 12,043 |
| Grady | 55.81 | 61.81 | 8,082 |
| Monroe | 60.71 | 69.19 | 5,781 |
| Westover | 52.27 | 62.36 | 3,438 |
| Monroe Area | 52.03 | 63.44 | 2,563 |
| Mary Persons | 54.93 | 68.58 | 2,209 |
| Wayne County | 53.52 | 69.44 | 1,095 |
| Dalton | 53.58 | 67.70 | 799 |
| LaGrange | 51.48 | 69.87 | 690 |
| S.Effingham | 46.91 | 63.70 | 576 |
| Region | Wins |
| 5-AAAA | 607,416 |
| 3-AAAA | 140,342 |
| 7-AAAA | 113,206 |
| 6-AAAA | 91,372 |
| 4-AAAA | 21,629 |
| 1-AAAA | 21,263 |
| 8-AAAA | 2,563 |
| 2-AAAA | 2,209 |
AAA
Most Common Semifinal Matchups:
Carver (Columbus) versus Thomson, 465,545 times
Peach County versus Washington County, 367,311 times
Most Common Championship Matchup:
Thomson versus Washington County, 241,545 times
Cinderella team: Johnson (Savannah) (0.288)
| Team | Rating | Draw | Wins |
| Thomson | 74.74 | 55.47 | 386,524 |
| Washington County | 70.30 | 60.96 | 216,177 |
| Carver (Columbus) | 68.05 | 59.19 | 135,458 |
| Peach County | 63.35 | 59.24 | 84,828 |
| St. Pius X | 62.42 | 59.21 | 57,419 |
| Buford | 65.46 | 65.26 | 54,567 |
| Cartersville | 63.48 | 64.56 | 34,237 |
| North Hall | 56.60 | 59.39 | 16,510 |
| North Oconee | 57.87 | 67.22 | 6,459 |
| Blessed Trinity | 55.60 | 65.78 | 3,199 |
| Callaway | 53.50 | 65.16 | 3,156 |
| Morgan County | 47.34 | 63.06 | 856 |
| Pierce County | 45.77 | 63.64 | 476 |
| Hart County | 42.95 | 65.20 | 128 |
| Rockmart | 36.55 | 67.07 | 6 |
| Johnson (Savannah) | 29.40 | 66.80 | - |
| Region | Wins |
| 3-AAA | 602,701 |
| 2-AAA | 220,286 |
| 7-AAA | 71,077 |
| 6-AAA | 60,618 |
| 5-AAA | 34,237 |
| 8-AAA | 7,443 |
| 4-AAA | 3,162 |
| 1-AAA | 476 |
AA
Most Common Semifinal Matchups:
Jefferson versus Early County, 108,754 times
Lovett versus Calhoun, 280,234 times
Most Common Championship Matchup:
Jefferson versus Calhoun, 124,160 times
Cinderella team: Screven County (0.496)
| Team | Rating | Draw | Wins |
| Calhoun | 77.11 | 59.65 | 471,832 |
| Brooks County | 71.23 | 60.45 | 226,114 |
| Vidalia | 60.42 | 59.66 | 59,465 |
| Jefferson | 58.46 | 57.78 | 53,657 |
| Fitzgerald | 58.89 | 60.04 | 41,410 |
| Lamar County | 58.21 | 58.69 | 39,317 |
| Lovett | 57.02 | 56.19 | 38,610 |
| Heard County | 53.52 | 58.12 | 17,889 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | 53.28 | 58.21 | 16,736 |
| Early County | 52.48 | 57.65 | 16,211 |
| Washington-Wilkes | 56.57 | 63.20 | 6,957 |
| McIntosh County Academy | 54.06 | 64.75 | 3,830 |
| Benedictine | 49.46 | 60.87 | 3,229 |
| Screven County | 46.84 | 59.06 | 2,862 |
| Westminster | 46.76 | 60.57 | 1,793 |
| Manchester | 38.07 | 61.29 | 88 |
| Region | Wins |
| 7-AA | 471,832 |
| 1-AA | 283,735 |
| 2-AA | 66,524 |
| 8-AA | 60,614 |
| 6-AA | 57,139 |
| 4-AA | 39,317 |
| 5-AA | 17,977 |
| 3-AA | 2,862 |
A-Public
Most Common Semifinal Matchups:
Lincoln County versus Dooly County, 228,469 times
Emanuel County Institute versus Wilcox County, 567,761 times
Most Common Championship Matchup:
Lincoln County versus Emanuel County Institute, 242,213 times
| Team | Rating | Draw | Wins |
| Emanuel County Institute | 56.21 | 41.97 | 296,724 |
| Lincoln County | 55.89 | 42.82 | 281,907 |
| Wilcox County | 51.36 | 40.71 | 173,652 |
| Wilkinson County | 52.19 | 43.36 | 157,141 |
| Irwin County | 46.77 | 46.04 | 46,092 |
| Dooly County | 41.03 | 44.34 | 21,570 |
| Seminole County | 37.32 | 41.96 | 11,504 |
| Turner County | 36.26 | 45.53 | 5,356 |
| Marion County | 34.77 | 46.90 | 2,822 |
| Charlton County | 33.49 | 47.22 | 1,859 |
| Trion | 31.75 | 48.69 | 523 |
| Hancock Central | 30.41 | 49.19 | 348 |
| Miller County | 28.86 | 47.48 | 218 |
| Greenville | 26.36 | 49.19 | 159 |
| Commerce | 22.31 | 46.34 | 68 |
| Gordon Lee | 24.93 | 49.79 | 57 |
| Region | Wins |
| 7-A | 439,396 |
| 3-A | 296,724 |
| 2-A | 226,959 |
| 4-A | 24,551 |
| 1-A | 11,722 |
| 6-A | 580 |
| 8-A | 68 |
A-Private
Most Common Semifinal Matchups:
Athens Academy versus Cavalry Day, 272,440 times
Aquinas versus Eagle’s Christian Landing, 427,423 times
Most Common Championship Matchup:
Athens Academy versus Eagle’s Christian Landing, 288,844 times
| Team | Rating | Draw | Wins |
| Eagle’s Landing Christian | 63.75 | 41.84 | 620,836 |
| Athens Academy | 49.41 | 42.37 | 117,935 |
| Aquinas | 49.38 | 46.89 | 75,982 |
| Calvary Day | 47.94 | 46.92 | 63,492 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | 43.71 | 46.93 | 26,378 |
| Walker | 42.67 | 45.25 | 23,380 |
| Landmark Christian | 43.29 | 48.08 | 20,000 |
| Savannah Christian | 42.92 | 47.01 | 18,533 |
| First Presbyterian | 40.14 | 47.28 | 11,443 |
| George Walton Academy | 40.56 | 49.93 | 8,098 |
| Brookstone | 37.68 | 47.90 | 5,412 |
| Darlington | 38.16 | 48.34 | 5,405 |
| Our Lady of Mercy | 35.25 | 50.06 | 1,469 |
| Holy Innocents | 34.34 | 49.15 | 1,365 |
| Athens Christian | 27.61 | 49.02 | 188 |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | 24.98 | 48.47 | 84 |
| Region | Wins |
| 5-A | 643,670 |
| 8-A | 152,599 |
| 7-A | 87,426 |
| 3-A | 82,024 |
| 6-A | 28,869 |
| 4-A | 5,412 |
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
29 comments Add your comment
Fred
November 20th, 2012
11:28 am
Loren, once again thanks for all the hard work. Very interesting numbers. Evidently the computer liked Lassiter over Grayson as we weren’t in the finals the most last week nor was Norcross. Interesting that Camden dropped out of the most likely final match up pair. I don’t see that as an indictment on the Bluecats by the way. We will keep playing (all of us) and see how things compare after Friday.
Jefferson
November 20th, 2012
11:54 am
I hope you are right. Someone will lose this week who is not supposed to, as always.
The Cross
November 20th, 2012
12:03 pm
Computers never lie!!!!
I’ve been trying to tell you guys….
The Cross
how 'bout
November 20th, 2012
12:26 pm
@The Cross
…
…hope you were smiling when you typed that
sportsnut
November 20th, 2012
1:52 pm
@ The Cross == What number does the computer wear and what position does it play ?
HoochFan
November 20th, 2012
2:48 pm
Cross…..Congratulations on the Norcross win over Hooch!
It was not much fun watching my out-matched Hooch team, but it was enjoyable watching your Norcoss squad! Norcross controlled the line of scrimmage all night. Hooch couldn’t contain Norcross speed, and other teams will have difficulty too.
My only negative take-away was all of the penalties. Maybe the lopsided game factored into that, with the players getting too anxious. I imagine that is being addressed this week.
Norcross was definitely the best team Hooch played this year! Good luck over the next few weeks!
We’ll be back next year!
GO HOOCH!!!!
The Cross
November 20th, 2012
3:09 pm
Sportsnut-The number for Lovejoy is 2.3%…do you feel that is about right?
Good luck.
The Cross
The Cross
November 20th, 2012
3:11 pm
how bout-I have been smiling for 13 weeks now. It is easy to smile every week when you are 11-0. Not many teams in AAAAAA can say that…oh really just one… NORCROSS.
The Cross
why not
November 20th, 2012
4:31 pm
Watch out for those Heard County Braves. Something special about this years team.
sportsnut
November 20th, 2012
5:36 pm
@ The Cross == The number for Lovejoy is 4. That is what we need for the title.
The Cross
November 20th, 2012
6:32 pm
Hooch Thanks for the kind words. You guys are a class act.
The Cross
DawgFan
November 20th, 2012
8:30 pm
Marietta is vastly underrated and will give Lovejoy a run for their money this week. The winner of Marietta / Lovejoy will be a very tough match for either North Gwinnett or Grayson.
MIGHTY LION KING
November 20th, 2012
10:21 pm
region 5 over region 6!! LMBO jes remember everybody cpu’s can be wrong at times !! In this case, MISERABLY WRONG!! Jes cant wait to prove otherwise!! Is it jes me or is play-off wks the longest wks ever to get to FridayNight??? Call me impatient i guess but this wk is goin by pretty slow.. I mean its only TUESDAY when usually by now it would seem like a THURSDAY night! lol OH WELL CANT WAIT!!! GO LIONS!!
LION NATION/ THE DOMINATION!!!
Bogus
November 20th, 2012
11:27 pm
This is all bogus math
raider nation
November 21st, 2012
8:34 am
I hope all the Norcross fans sent South Gwinnett a xmas card for beating Parkview,because you would have being playing your last game Friday night when Grayson put the beat down on you.Grayson plays big bot football and Norcross plays little league.Enjoy this week Norcross fans because this will be the last win of the year,because Camden is waitng for you.
The Cross
November 21st, 2012
9:46 am
Raider nation-I like your in depth analysis…you are quite the prognosticator. Big boy football vs. little league? Norcross is the real deal, with tons of talent. There hasn’t been a team in the state that has played within two touchdowns of Norcross and we have played 6 playoff teams. Camden and Grayson will be a challenge if we are fortunate to play them, but if you think for a minute that there is any team in this state that would put a beat down on Norcross you are a certified, card carrying moron. I’m sure you are placing your displaced anger on Norcross when your little league coaches told you that you were better suited for the band or a baton twirler.
Thanks for playing raider moron!
The Cross
raider nation
November 21st, 2012
1:00 pm
@ The Cross – I want to hear from you next week when Camden puts the beat down on Norcross and then they can start the sport in which they are good in(basketball)? I heard you where the mascot in school is that true?
The Cross
November 21st, 2012
1:51 pm
Raider nation- i will be here or I can meet you at McDonalds after you get off your breakfast shift. You are a McMoron
raider nation
November 21st, 2012
1:53 pm
Somebody said you where Ronald McDonald.LOL
Flyer
November 21st, 2012
2:17 pm
@The Cross– Mill Creek and North Gwinnett played within 2 touchdowns of Norcross.
raider nation
November 21st, 2012
3:06 pm
Norcross 31 – NG 21 = 10 POINTS
Norcross 49 – MC 41 = 8 POINTS
Norcross 35 – CH 23 = 12 POINTS
They must have not taught math at Norcross
Suwanee 0wns
November 21st, 2012
3:09 pm
So the East Coweta guys might as well all go buy lottery tickets since they have about as much chance of winning the lottery as winning the State Championship.
But that is still not quite as bad as Johnson of Savannah who has 0% chance of winning the State Championship under any scenario.
There are some fun games on tap for the next round, but not for Johnson. Futility, thy name is Johnson.
MakesForGoodConversationBut
November 21st, 2012
4:09 pm
The game will be decided on the field….Grayson is a good team but they are NOT unbeatable. You Grayson fans may be surprised at the fight you have on the field with NG on Friday. That game will be decided by who makes the fewest mistakes. I will guarantee the loser will make more mistakes than the winner. Norcross has a good team; but they have only been challenged once – by NG. Two plays were the difference in that game, when all was said and done. Norcross is DEFINITELY NOT unbeatable…I hope they remember Dacula…Region 8 has a way of payback in the post season like few others. That being said, I WANT to see Norcross – Camden! I think that will be a great game. A lot of other good teams left – not many pretenders.
Fred
November 21st, 2012
8:14 pm
@MakesForGoodConversation – I don’t think anyone from Grayson is expecting anything other than a very hard fight! NG is too good a team and there is extra incentive to beat us.
Falconguy45
November 21st, 2012
9:06 pm
I am expecting a good fight Friday night. Maybe Grayson will be challenged. If so, it will be the first in many weeks. Go ask our friends that are still in it ( Brookwood and South Gwinnett) about playing Grayson, but anything can happen and North is a great team.
cat doc
November 22nd, 2012
9:31 am
Big upsets this week Grayson , Colquittand Norcross out.
Fred
November 23rd, 2012
10:27 am
North Gwinnett fans – If you are coming to the game tonight, there is a new entrance to Grayson that is much easier to get in and out of. Continue down 20/Grayson Hwy past Hope Hollow where you used to turn to get to the school. The very next light is the new entrance to the school. The light may be flashing as it is programed to only cycle during the start and end of the school day. The Gwinnett Sheriffs will have it operating after the game for sure.
Also, once you are in the parking lot, if you go to the left around the school, there is a back entrance to the stadium that generally is not as crowded as the main ticket gate. The main gate will be crowded since school was out this week and there weren’t very many advance ticket sales.
Safe travels and see you at the game!
The Cross
November 24th, 2012
7:43 am
Cat doc-You were 1 out of 3 on your upset picks. Can’t wait to hear about next weeks games.
The Cross
Flyer
November 26th, 2012
1:30 pm
@Fred– Thanks for the heads up on the new entrance and the alternate ticket window. It all worked out great.