Maxwell Ratings: Odds of each team winning state title, round 2

By Loren Maxwell

Special to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution

The Maxwell Ratings were used last week to simulate this year’s playoffs 1,000,000 times starting from the first round.

This week, those odds are recalculated for the second round. A team’s odds go up just for surviving the first round. But a team’s odds also go up or down based on the results of all the games in the first round. A team’s draw might’ve gotten much better, or worse, pending what happened in a strange first week of the post-season.

Below, each team is shown with their rating, the strength of their draw in the tournament, and the chance of winning the state championship.

Cinderella teams are identified as the teams that have mathematically had the least likely results in the tournament so far based on the ratings prior to each round.  The scale for likelihood is between 0 and 1 and is calculated from the probability of the team winning and the actual outcome of the game.

AAAAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Grayson versus North Cobb, 179,001 times

Norcross versus Colquitt County, 257,016 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Grayson versus Norcross, 190,451 times

Cinderella team: Brookwood (0.233)

Team Rating Draw Wins
Norcross 97.78 84.29 360,062
Grayson 91.79 83.09 204,237
Camden County 89.37 78.77 150,931
North Gwinnett 87.70 84.39 93,669
Colquitt County 81.28 80.76 44,427
South Gwinnett 84.74 87.41 25,880
Lovejoy 79.23 82.73 23,625
Parkview 79.92 84.20 22,758
North Cobb 76.63 80.30 20,648
Mill Creek 77.32 81.28 18,328
Brookwood 76.78 81.51 15,761
West Forsyth 78.38 84.69 14,789
Marietta 73.37 84.19 4,057
Hughes 65.49 83.09 576
Newnan 64.90 84.86 249
East Coweta 55.06 87.35 3
Region Wins
7-AAAAAA 472,060
8-AAAAAA 268,636
1-AAAAAA 195,358
4-AAAAAA 24,705
2-AAAAAA 23,625
6-AAAAAA 14,789
3-AAAAAA 827

AAAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Northside versus East Paulding, 418,946 times

Kell versus M.L. King, 210,808 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

M.L. King versus Northside, 162.210 times

Cinderella team: North Paulding (0.198)

Team Rating Draw Wins
Northside (Warner Robins) 81.23 70.42 281,918
East Paulding 80.24 69.97 256,514
M.L. King 78.32 69.98 203,702
Kell 69.80 68.25 51,922
Allatoona 71.66 72.13 50,938
Ware County 68.74 70.75 32,505
Gainesville 67.52 69.27 29,267
Tucker 68.87 72.27 25,602
Whitewater 66.00 70.10 21,044
Warner Robins 62.94 67.62 14,997
Thomas County Central 66.77 74.04 10,820
Stephenson 65.51 74.50 8,626
North Paulding 64.80 72.90 7,903
Glynn Academy 59.85 71.63 3,160
Union Grove 57.02 73.68 867
Harris County 50.34 70.77 215
Region Wins
5-AAAAA 315,355
2-AAAAA 296,915
6-AAAAA 237,930
7-AAAAA 51,922
3-AAAAA 35,665
8-AAAAA 29,267
4-AAAAA 21,911
1-AAAAA 11,035

AAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Sandy Creek versus Grady, 270,451 times

Ridgeland versus Marist, 268,973 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Sandy Creek versus Ridgeland, 249,238 times

Cinderella team: South Effingham (0.064)

Team Rating Draw Wins
Sandy Creek 83.30 61.92 558,396
Burke County 73.94 65.89 138,672
Ridgeland 70.05 63.86 112,407
Marist 71.13 68.65 83,290
Carrollton 68.71 69.48 48,330
Stockbridge 63.25 67.00 21,629
Cairo 60.51 67.18 12,043
Grady 55.81 61.81 8,082
Monroe 60.71 69.19 5,781
Westover 52.27 62.36 3,438
Monroe Area 52.03 63.44 2,563
Mary Persons 54.93 68.58 2,209
Wayne County 53.52 69.44 1,095
Dalton 53.58 67.70 799
LaGrange 51.48 69.87 690
S.Effingham 46.91 63.70 576
Region Wins
5-AAAA 607,416
3-AAAA 140,342
7-AAAA 113,206
6-AAAA 91,372
4-AAAA 21,629
1-AAAA 21,263
8-AAAA 2,563
2-AAAA 2,209

AAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Carver (Columbus) versus Thomson, 465,545 times

Peach County versus Washington County, 367,311 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Thomson versus Washington County, 241,545 times

Cinderella team: Johnson (Savannah) (0.288)

Team Rating Draw Wins
Thomson 74.74 55.47 386,524
Washington County 70.30 60.96 216,177
Carver (Columbus) 68.05 59.19 135,458
Peach County 63.35 59.24 84,828
St. Pius X 62.42 59.21 57,419
Buford 65.46 65.26 54,567
Cartersville 63.48 64.56 34,237
North Hall 56.60 59.39 16,510
North Oconee 57.87 67.22 6,459
Blessed Trinity 55.60 65.78 3,199
Callaway 53.50 65.16 3,156
Morgan County 47.34 63.06 856
Pierce County 45.77 63.64 476
Hart County 42.95 65.20 128
Rockmart 36.55 67.07 6
Johnson (Savannah) 29.40 66.80 -
Region Wins
3-AAA 602,701
2-AAA 220,286
7-AAA 71,077
6-AAA 60,618
5-AAA 34,237
8-AAA 7,443
4-AAA 3,162
1-AAA 476

AA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Jefferson versus Early County, 108,754 times

Lovett versus Calhoun, 280,234 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Jefferson versus Calhoun, 124,160 times

Cinderella team: Screven County (0.496)

Team Rating Draw Wins
Calhoun 77.11 59.65 471,832
Brooks County 71.23 60.45 226,114
Vidalia 60.42 59.66 59,465
Jefferson 58.46 57.78 53,657
Fitzgerald 58.89 60.04 41,410
Lamar County 58.21 58.69 39,317
Lovett 57.02 56.19 38,610
Heard County 53.52 58.12 17,889
Greater Atlanta Christian 53.28 58.21 16,736
Early County 52.48 57.65 16,211
Washington-Wilkes 56.57 63.20 6,957
McIntosh County Academy 54.06 64.75 3,830
Benedictine 49.46 60.87 3,229
Screven County 46.84 59.06 2,862
Westminster 46.76 60.57 1,793
Manchester 38.07 61.29 88
Region Wins
7-AA 471,832
1-AA 283,735
2-AA 66,524
8-AA 60,614
6-AA 57,139
4-AA 39,317
5-AA 17,977
3-AA 2,862

A-Public

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Lincoln County versus Dooly County, 228,469 times

Emanuel County Institute versus Wilcox County, 567,761 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Lincoln County versus Emanuel County Institute, 242,213 times

Team Rating Draw Wins
Emanuel County Institute 56.21 41.97 296,724
Lincoln County 55.89 42.82 281,907
Wilcox County 51.36 40.71 173,652
Wilkinson County 52.19 43.36 157,141
Irwin County 46.77 46.04 46,092
Dooly County 41.03 44.34 21,570
Seminole County 37.32 41.96 11,504
Turner County 36.26 45.53 5,356
Marion County 34.77 46.90 2,822
Charlton County 33.49 47.22 1,859
Trion 31.75 48.69 523
Hancock Central 30.41 49.19 348
Miller County 28.86 47.48 218
Greenville 26.36 49.19 159
Commerce 22.31 46.34 68
Gordon Lee 24.93 49.79 57
Region Wins
7-A 439,396
3-A 296,724
2-A 226,959
4-A 24,551
1-A 11,722
6-A 580
8-A 68

A-Private

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Athens Academy versus Cavalry Day, 272,440 times

Aquinas versus Eagle’s Christian Landing, 427,423 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Athens Academy versus Eagle’s Christian Landing, 288,844 times

Team Rating Draw Wins
Eagle’s Landing Christian 63.75 41.84 620,836
Athens Academy 49.41 42.37 117,935
Aquinas 49.38 46.89 75,982
Calvary Day 47.94 46.92 63,492
Prince Avenue Christian 43.71 46.93 26,378
Walker 42.67 45.25 23,380
Landmark Christian 43.29 48.08 20,000
Savannah Christian 42.92 47.01 18,533
First Presbyterian 40.14 47.28 11,443
George Walton Academy 40.56 49.93 8,098
Brookstone 37.68 47.90 5,412
Darlington 38.16 48.34 5,405
Our Lady of Mercy 35.25 50.06 1,469
Holy Innocents 34.34 49.15 1,365
Athens Christian 27.61 49.02 188
Mount Pisgah Christian 24.98 48.47 84
Region Wins
5-A 643,670
8-A 152,599
7-A 87,426
3-A 82,024
6-A 28,869
4-A 5,412

29 comments Add your comment

Fred

November 20th, 2012
11:28 am

Loren, once again thanks for all the hard work. Very interesting numbers. Evidently the computer liked Lassiter over Grayson as we weren’t in the finals the most last week nor was Norcross. Interesting that Camden dropped out of the most likely final match up pair. I don’t see that as an indictment on the Bluecats by the way. We will keep playing (all of us) and see how things compare after Friday.

Jefferson

November 20th, 2012
11:54 am

I hope you are right. Someone will lose this week who is not supposed to, as always.

The Cross

November 20th, 2012
12:03 pm

Computers never lie!!!!

I’ve been trying to tell you guys….

The Cross

how 'bout

November 20th, 2012
12:26 pm

@The Cross
…hope you were smiling when you typed that :D

sportsnut

November 20th, 2012
1:52 pm

@ The Cross == What number does the computer wear and what position does it play ?

HoochFan

November 20th, 2012
2:48 pm

Cross…..Congratulations on the Norcross win over Hooch!

It was not much fun watching my out-matched Hooch team, but it was enjoyable watching your Norcoss squad! Norcross controlled the line of scrimmage all night. Hooch couldn’t contain Norcross speed, and other teams will have difficulty too.

My only negative take-away was all of the penalties. Maybe the lopsided game factored into that, with the players getting too anxious. I imagine that is being addressed this week.

Norcross was definitely the best team Hooch played this year! Good luck over the next few weeks!

We’ll be back next year!

GO HOOCH!!!!

The Cross

November 20th, 2012
3:09 pm

Sportsnut-The number for Lovejoy is 2.3%…do you feel that is about right?

Good luck.

The Cross

The Cross

November 20th, 2012
3:11 pm

how bout-I have been smiling for 13 weeks now. It is easy to smile every week when you are 11-0. Not many teams in AAAAAA can say that…oh really just one… NORCROSS.

The Cross

why not

November 20th, 2012
4:31 pm

Watch out for those Heard County Braves. Something special about this years team.

sportsnut

November 20th, 2012
5:36 pm

@ The Cross == The number for Lovejoy is 4. That is what we need for the title.

The Cross

November 20th, 2012
6:32 pm

Hooch Thanks for the kind words. You guys are a class act.

The Cross

DawgFan

November 20th, 2012
8:30 pm

Marietta is vastly underrated and will give Lovejoy a run for their money this week. The winner of Marietta / Lovejoy will be a very tough match for either North Gwinnett or Grayson.

MIGHTY LION KING

November 20th, 2012
10:21 pm

region 5 over region 6!! LMBO jes remember everybody cpu’s can be wrong at times !! In this case, MISERABLY WRONG!! Jes cant wait to prove otherwise!! Is it jes me or is play-off wks the longest wks ever to get to FridayNight??? Call me impatient i guess but this wk is goin by pretty slow.. I mean its only TUESDAY when usually by now it would seem like a THURSDAY night! lol OH WELL CANT WAIT!!! GO LIONS!!

LION NATION/ THE DOMINATION!!!

Bogus

November 20th, 2012
11:27 pm

This is all bogus math

raider nation

November 21st, 2012
8:34 am

I hope all the Norcross fans sent South Gwinnett a xmas card for beating Parkview,because you would have being playing your last game Friday night when Grayson put the beat down on you.Grayson plays big bot football and Norcross plays little league.Enjoy this week Norcross fans because this will be the last win of the year,because Camden is waitng for you.

The Cross

November 21st, 2012
9:46 am

Raider nation-I like your in depth analysis…you are quite the prognosticator. Big boy football vs. little league? Norcross is the real deal, with tons of talent. There hasn’t been a team in the state that has played within two touchdowns of Norcross and we have played 6 playoff teams. Camden and Grayson will be a challenge if we are fortunate to play them, but if you think for a minute that there is any team in this state that would put a beat down on Norcross you are a certified, card carrying moron. I’m sure you are placing your displaced anger on Norcross when your little league coaches told you that you were better suited for the band or a baton twirler.

Thanks for playing raider moron!

The Cross

raider nation

November 21st, 2012
1:00 pm

@ The Cross – I want to hear from you next week when Camden puts the beat down on Norcross and then they can start the sport in which they are good in(basketball)? I heard you where the mascot in school is that true?

The Cross

November 21st, 2012
1:51 pm

Raider nation- i will be here or I can meet you at McDonalds after you get off your breakfast shift. You are a McMoron

raider nation

November 21st, 2012
1:53 pm

Somebody said you where Ronald McDonald.LOL

Flyer

November 21st, 2012
2:17 pm

@The Cross– Mill Creek and North Gwinnett played within 2 touchdowns of Norcross.

raider nation

November 21st, 2012
3:06 pm

Norcross 31 – NG 21 = 10 POINTS
Norcross 49 – MC 41 = 8 POINTS
Norcross 35 – CH 23 = 12 POINTS

They must have not taught math at Norcross

Suwanee 0wns

November 21st, 2012
3:09 pm

So the East Coweta guys might as well all go buy lottery tickets since they have about as much chance of winning the lottery as winning the State Championship.

But that is still not quite as bad as Johnson of Savannah who has 0% chance of winning the State Championship under any scenario.

There are some fun games on tap for the next round, but not for Johnson. Futility, thy name is Johnson.

MakesForGoodConversationBut

November 21st, 2012
4:09 pm

The game will be decided on the field….Grayson is a good team but they are NOT unbeatable. You Grayson fans may be surprised at the fight you have on the field with NG on Friday. That game will be decided by who makes the fewest mistakes. I will guarantee the loser will make more mistakes than the winner. Norcross has a good team; but they have only been challenged once – by NG. Two plays were the difference in that game, when all was said and done. Norcross is DEFINITELY NOT unbeatable…I hope they remember Dacula…Region 8 has a way of payback in the post season like few others. That being said, I WANT to see Norcross – Camden! I think that will be a great game. A lot of other good teams left – not many pretenders.

Fred

November 21st, 2012
8:14 pm

@MakesForGoodConversation – I don’t think anyone from Grayson is expecting anything other than a very hard fight! NG is too good a team and there is extra incentive to beat us.

Falconguy45

November 21st, 2012
9:06 pm

I am expecting a good fight Friday night. Maybe Grayson will be challenged. If so, it will be the first in many weeks. Go ask our friends that are still in it ( Brookwood and South Gwinnett) about playing Grayson, but anything can happen and North is a great team.

cat doc

November 22nd, 2012
9:31 am

Big upsets this week Grayson , Colquittand Norcross out.

Fred

November 23rd, 2012
10:27 am

North Gwinnett fans – If you are coming to the game tonight, there is a new entrance to Grayson that is much easier to get in and out of. Continue down 20/Grayson Hwy past Hope Hollow where you used to turn to get to the school. The very next light is the new entrance to the school. The light may be flashing as it is programed to only cycle during the start and end of the school day. The Gwinnett Sheriffs will have it operating after the game for sure.

Also, once you are in the parking lot, if you go to the left around the school, there is a back entrance to the stadium that generally is not as crowded as the main ticket gate. The main gate will be crowded since school was out this week and there weren’t very many advance ticket sales.

Safe travels and see you at the game!

The Cross

November 24th, 2012
7:43 am

Cat doc-You were 1 out of 3 on your upset picks. Can’t wait to hear about next weeks games.

The Cross

Flyer

November 26th, 2012
1:30 pm

@Fred– Thanks for the heads up on the new entrance and the alternate ticket window. It all worked out great.