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Prep Zone: High School Sports

Maxwell Ratings: The odds of each playoff team winning state title

10:02 am November 14, 2012, by Todd Holcomb

By Loren Maxwell

Special to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution

The Maxwell ratings were used to simulate this year’s playoffs 1,000,000 times for the top five classifications.  Each team is shown with their rating, the strength of their draw in the tournament, and the chance of winning the state championship.

Of the more interesting results:

- Camden County’s loss to Colquitt County last week dropped Camden behind Norcross in the Maxwell ratings, but Camden’s significantly easier draw in the playoffs still leaves it the slight favorite to win the state title according to the system.  The primary difference between Camden County and Norcross is the first two rounds, where the Wildcats have a significantly easier draw than the Blue Devils.  Camden County has a 92% chance of making the third round whereas Norcross has only about a 75% chance.  However, if Norcross can make it to the third round, the Blue Devils will likely be favored to win the championship.

- The average depth into the playoffs for NSWR was 3.83 rounds and they made it to the Semifinals on approximately four out of every five simulations.

- Marist and Stockbridge were extremely close in AAAA, but a Stockbridge was slightly more likely than Marist to reach the Semifinal due to their weak draw, making a Stockbridge-Ridgeland game the most likely outcome.  However, Marist actually made it to the state championship game more often and was Sandy Creek’s most common opponent.

- Calhoun and Brooks County met in the Quarterfinals over 80% of the time in a game that comes far too early in the AA playoffs.

- Perhaps in a strange twist of fate, Lovett received help from getting the weakest draw in the AA tournament after suffering through the toughest regular season schedule in AA.

- The least fortunate team was 3-7 Rockdale County, who didn’t win even once out the simulations and whose odds of running the table are a whopping 304 billion to 1.

- Finally, how did the computer rate the chances for a fifth straight Buford-Calhoun matchup in the AA title game?  Zero.  Buford moved to AAA this season.

AAAAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Lassiter versus Grayson, 173,180 times

Colquitt County versus Camden County, 193,241 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Camden County versus Lassiter, 106,366 times

Team Rating Draw

Champion

Camden County

93.42

74.78

283,764
Norcross

94.51

80.69

248,163
Lassiter

87.09

79.45

107,093
Grayson

88.44

80.65

103,416
Lowndes

86.76

81.43

71,749
Colquitt County

83.04

78.94

46,658
North Gwinnett

84.92

83.39

36,057
Valdosta

80.46

80.60

24,948
Lovejoy

81.34

79.29

22,711
West Forsyth

79.33

80.11

17,704
South Gwinnett

81.25

83.79

10,620
McEachern

75.88

80.37

5,582
Parkview

75.65

81.25

5,288
Alpharetta

74.29

81.68

2,973
Mill Creek

73.81

81.76

2,495
North Cobb

73.26

83.28

2,424
Walton

73.09

81.84

2,111
Johns Creek

75.78

84.98

1,805
Milton

74.70

84.50

1,104
Hughes

67.73

72.72

861
Brookwood

71.25

82.62

817
Collins Hill

69.86

82.00

622
Newnan

66.02

74.37

473
Marietta

69.49

85.55

215
Chattahoochee

69.94

85.60

178
Hillgrove

65.74

80.32

128
Wheeler

65.16

85.30

32
East Coweta

56.68

77.69

9
Tri-Cities

54.27

84.70

-
Newton

45.28

78.45

-
Alcovy

36.02

80.44

-
Rockdale County

26.83

80.90

-
Region

Champion
1-AAAAAA

427,118
7-AAAAAA

287,337
8-AAAAAA

120,141
5-AAAAAA

110,341
2-AAAAAA

22,711
6-AAAAAA

22,659
4-AAAAAA

8,349
3-AAAAAA

1,344

AAAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Northside (Warner Robins) versus East Paulding, 423,873 times

M.L. King versus Kell, 280,430 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Northside (Warner Robins) versus M.L. King, 329,385 times

Team Rating Draw

Champion
Northside (Warner Robins) 89.40 65.09

503,952
M.L. King 81.66 66.79

224,245
East Paulding 78.38 69.81

102,990
Kell 74.45 69.74

56,651
Warner Robins 67.80 65.96

18,011
Ware County 69.20 67.88

17,958
Whitewater 67.61 68.49

13,974
Flowery Branch 70.43 71.93

13,524
Gainesville 67.78 70.80

10,379
Allatoona 68.46 70.93

9,783
Tucker 69.47 73.30

8,790
Thomas County Central 69.21 71.74

7,360
Stephenson 67.22 71.23

6,820
Creekview 62.66 75.01

809
Heritage (Conyers) 61.20 71.74

800
Southwest DeKalb 60.24 72.59

682
Glynn Academy 58.19 70.24

680
Union Grove 59.50 72.31

626
Rome 59.52 72.32

586
Bainbridge 57.99 72.69

346
Northgate 54.34 69.42

229
Clarke Central 58.11 73.87

194
Jones County 54.33 71.18

144
Lee County 54.31 71.15

121
North Paulding 56.66 74.69

85
Richmond Hill 52.02 71.32

68
Harris County 51.29 70.03

64
Creekside 56.30 72.42

55
Pope 54.33 73.27

52
Sequoyah 51.63 72.79

20
Lakeside (Evans) 45.40 72.64

2
Effingham County 41.93 74.58

-
Region

Champion
2-AAAAA

522,109
6-AAAAA

240,538
5-AAAAA

113,444
7-AAAAA

57,531
8-AAAAA

24,897
3-AAAAA

18,706
4-AAAAA

14,883
1-AAAAA

7,892

AAAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Sandy Creek versus Westside (Macon), 333,888 times

Stockbridge versus Ridgeland, 196,409 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Sandy Creek versus Marist, 144,365 times

Team Rating Draw

Champion
Sandy Creek 83.87 62.75

442,604
Marist 73.92 65.58

104,223
Stockbridge 71.19 61.60

84,363
Ridgeland 70.52 63.20

83,035
Burke County 75.11 68.56

80,963
Westside (Macon) 70.52 61.79

73,401
Griffin 72.42 69.43

41,682
Carrollton 69.45 66.21

37,937
Jonesboro 66.37 65.12

22,367
Mary Persons 60.68 64.71

6,885
Grady 59.91 63.77

5,492
Cairo 60.48 66.23

5,172
Carver (Atlanta) 62.03 68.20

2,706
Riverdale 58.53 66.62

2,619
Washington 58.37 65.63

2,484
Baldwin 59.00 66.89

2,162
Monroe Area 53.05 64.85

536
LaGrange 50.69 64.34

272
Monroe 57.30 72.09

252
River Ridge 50.21 66.88

139
Perry 55.65 72.45

133
Statesboro 50.07 67.40

120
Westover 51.39 67.85

103
Wayne County 51.11 68.34

92
Dalton 53.22 68.74

85
Shaw 48.45 65.77

79
Chestatee 46.37 64.99

42
Gilmer 49.80 70.41

30
Stephens County 48.39 69.80

18
Eastside 45.32 70.46

3
South Effingham 39.54 67.99

1
Worth County 37.00 68.44

-
Region

Champion
5-AAAA

480,892
4-AAAA

151,032
6-AAAA

114,906
7-AAAA

83,290
2-AAAA

82,581
3-AAAA

81,175
1-AAAA

5,526
8-AAAA

598

AAA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Thomson versus Carver (Columbus), 486,009 times

Washington County versus Peach County, 425,462 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Thomson versus Washington County, 197,162 times

Team Rating Draw

Champion
Thomson

76.65

56.24

317,322
Washington County

72.91

58.88

206,592
Carver (Columbus)

72.80

57.67

193,383
Peach County

69.00

56.75

139,606
Cartersville

67.95

60.65

54,492
St. Pius X

64.39

57.52

47,289
Buford

65.21

64.13

26,575
Callaway

54.89

59.53

2,697
Blessed Trinity

57.40

64.12

2,457
North Hall

54.01

61.88

2,389
North Oconee

56.26

64.47

2,094
Cedar Grove

52.95

62.09

1,636
Gordon Central

51.98

60.75

1,510
Woodward Academy

54.91

67.21

873
Pierce County

47.45

58.74

428
Adairsville

46.66

61.52

187
Jefferson County

45.97

63.92

124
Appling County

46.46

61.55

112
Morgan County

44.38

62.85

73
Ringgold

47.57

66.21

67
Jackson

45.20

62.53

42
Pike County

43.76

66.83

22
Dodge County

41.82

63.86

10
Hart County

39.34

62.96

8
White County

41.90

67.21

5
Dawson County

37.01

62.99

3
Chapel Hill

35.94

60.08

2
Rockmart

35.93

62.73

1
Central (Carrollton)

32.77

61.67

1
Johnson (Savannah)

26.19

60.61

-
Tattnall County

28.63

64.78

-
Jackson County

36.02

67.04

-
Region

Champion
3-AAA

524,048
2-AAA

333,052
5-AAA

56,257
6-AAA

52,254
7-AAA

28,971
4-AAA

2,701
8-AAA

2,176
1-AAA

541

AA

Most Common Semifinal Matchups:

Heard County versus Vidalia, 150,722 times

Calhoun versus Lovett, 310,891 times

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Calhoun versus Vidalia, 155,330 times

Team Rating Draw

Champion
Calhoun 78.32 55.18

437,059
Brooks County 75.47 55.20

300,495
Vidalia 62.70 50.25

79,505
Lovett 59.70 48.89

49,131
Fitzgerald 59.98 57.05

33,695
Heard County 55.96 50.97

22,826
Greater Atlanta Christian 55.86 51.99

21,696
Jefferson 55.27 52.17

19,312
Lamar County 57.13 58.49

13,196
Early County 52.08 56.30

6,288
Cook 53.46 59.22

4,079
McIntosh County Academy 55.26 59.87

2,936
Bleckley County 48.98 57.31

2,154
Westminster 48.41 55.33

2,131
Benedictine 50.20 57.64

2,100
Washington-Wilkes 53.84 60.09

1,932
Bacon County 45.42 56.78

748
Screven County 43.87 57.09

401
Manchester 40.93 51.95

159
Northeast 43.25 60.14

90
Laney 41.24 59.59

57
Pepperell 33.53 58.85

4
Bowdon 37.87 61.02

3
Wesleyan 37.04 63.44

2
East Laurens 35.25 61.84

1
Macon County 32.28 63.84

-
Kendrick 25.88 58.05

-
Model 22.76 59.24

-
Rabun County 18.00 58.56

-
Coosa 17.33 57.36

-
Greene County 13.18 57.08

-
Westside (Augusta) 13.40 60.11

-
Region

Champion
7-AA

437,063
1-AA

344,557
2-AA

85,289
6-AA

72,960
5-AA

22,988
8-AA

21,243
4-AA

15,440
3-AA

459

Tentative Class A results. These will be updated after this week’s games.

Public schools:

Team Rating Draw

Champion
Emanuel County Institute

57.67

43.27

319,647
Lincoln County

56.34

43.86

265,339
Wilcox County

51.89

42.10

162,619
Wilkinson County

53.15

44.37

159,504
Irwin County

47.60

47.29

44,532
Dooly County

42.26

45.25

23,421
Seminole County

38.46

43.08

12,066
Turner County

37.10

46.54

5,221
Marion County

36.53

47.64

3,746
Charlton County

34.20

48.22

1,761
Trion

34.84

49.41

1,058
Hancock Central

31.45

50.09

373
Miller County

30.25

48.51

261
Greenville

28.35

50.07

231
Gordon Lee

28.39

50.59

134
Commerce

23.94

47.30

87
Region

Champion
7-A

425,216
3-A

319,647
2-A

214,133
4-A

27,398
1-A

12,327
6-A

1,192
8-A

87

Private schools:

Team Rating Draw

Champion
Eagle’s Landing Christian

66.04

43.46

641,792
Athens Academy

51.12

44.55

112,598
Aquinas

50.44

49.06

63,254
Calvary Day

49.35

48.83

57,759
Walker

45.67

46.81

30,297
Prince Avenue Christian

45.22

49.11

23,411
Landmark Christian

45.25

49.85

20,846
Savannah Christian

43.86

48.95

14,901
First Presbyterian

41.64

49.17

10,467
Darlington

41.31

50.12

7,777
George Walton Academy

42.20

51.83

7,541
Brookstone

39.69

49.68

5,785
Our Lady of Mercy

37.51

51.79

1,697
Holy Innocents

36.58

50.77

1,610
Athens Christian

28.82

51.03

146
Mount Pisgah Christian

27.86

50.37

119
Region

Champion
5-A

665,945
8-A

143,696
7-A

73,721
3-A

72,660
6-A

38,193
4-A

5,785


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49 comments Add your comment

Jefferson

November 14th, 2012
10:42 am

I hope you are right.

The Cross

November 14th, 2012
10:44 am

Norcross/Grayson- The Trophy stays in Gwinnett for the third year in a row.

Region 1 is OVERRATED. Colquitt and Valdosta get sent home in round 1. Lowndes in round 2. And the pride of region 1 Camden gets bumped in round 3.

Thanks for playing.

The Cross

williambrado1

November 14th, 2012
11:04 am

The Cross you need 1 of three things, drug tested, a cat scan or a coarse in common sense! Dont count Camden,Lowndes,Colquitt or Valdosta out.

Fred

November 14th, 2012
11:04 am

Loren, very interesting work! I know some will complain about setting up odds and gambling but I appreciate your work! Do you plan on updating this as the playoffs progress? I think it would be cool to maybe run the numbers each week and then publish the results at the end after it is all said and done. That way, you get to see the dynamics of the changing reality vs the model.

Anyway, way cool and thanks!

HS football fan

November 14th, 2012
11:09 am

I read this as either a Lassiter or Camden championship. Bring it home for Cobb County boys!

only a matter of time

November 14th, 2012
11:22 am

I’m pulling for the Cobb teams but really Lassiter is the only team I can see going pretty deep. They have solid players on both sides of the ball and a QB that can distribute the rock. They would be the only Cobb team I see going far. In fact, the only other Cobb team I can see surviving round one is McEachern and that’s because they’re at home. I support region 4 all year long but region 1 is for real.

Loren Maxwell

November 14th, 2012
11:59 am

@Fred: “Do you plan on updating this as the playoffs progress?”

I will be providing them each week to Todd. I will also have Class A once the GHSA releases the official brackets.

kramers2009

November 14th, 2012
12:53 pm

Will someone clarify:
The “draw” rating – the higher the number, the easier/more favorable your draw? The lower the number, the harder/less favorable your draw? Right?

FridayNightLightsFan

November 14th, 2012
1:29 pm

Very interesting stuf. Thanks Loren.

kramers2009

November 14th, 2012
1:35 pm

@Kramers2009.

Nevermind, the lower the “draw” number, the easier/more favorable the draw.

Loren Maxwell

November 14th, 2012
1:36 pm

@kramers2009

The draw is a team’s average opponent rating if it made it all the way through the tournament. A higher number is a stronger draw, or a tougher path.

Son of Waco

November 14th, 2012
2:14 pm

Is that another win for region 3 AAA…….Also a win for Region 2 AAA….

yo

November 14th, 2012
2:31 pm

So I’m seeing one of the 4 teams from 1-6A have about a 40% chance of bringing home the championship as compared to one of the other 28 teams having about a 60% chance when pooled all together. Sounds about right.

Blue devil alumni

November 14th, 2012
3:00 pm

ITS TIME NORCROSS FANS TO GET AMPED!!

NORCROSS RAP VIDEO!!!! IT’S GAME TIME!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwQzv3ybrrw

HS football fan

November 14th, 2012
3:01 pm

Of the 1 million times run, the opening 6a notes state that a Championship game between Lassiter & Camden is most likely to happen. From what I can tell, Camden is the likely winner of that game…interesting that the quietest fans on this blog have a better shot at beating Camden than ‘The Cross’ & ‘Sportsnut’. Good luck Trojans!!!!

battleaxekid

November 14th, 2012
3:12 pm

All 4 playoff teams from region 1 will win the 1st round with the toughest win by Colquitt over McEachern.. according to the above. Again this is just as the polls, worthless..

blu eagle

November 14th, 2012
3:15 pm

Very interesting numbers they look very favorable at being played out. The only thing that may hurt some good teams will be the weather conditions if raining and cold,and how the teams react to it. A passing team may do well if the rain does not interfere with visibility, a running team would do well by staying on the ground and pounding it out. Of course it will not matter once you reach the dome cause that stadium has a roof, if I am not mistaken!

LoveFridayFootball

November 14th, 2012
8:03 pm

No love for 1A…

sportsnut

November 14th, 2012
10:05 pm

@ HS Football Fan == Lovejoy is not in the conversation. We have no chance no matter what any numbers may say. Region 1 has spoken.

RobFromNorcross

November 14th, 2012
10:55 pm

What I see is that the winner of the Camden/Norcross game is expected to win about 53% of the time in a million simulations. And since Norcross has a higher rating than Camden, assuming that both teams make it to that matchup, Norcross would be the slight favorite. In reality the winner of the coin toss to determine home field will be the favorite in that game.

But this is just a computer, in the real world the game is played by 17 and 18 year old young men, and their coaches. And then in a close matchup, there are always the refs and the way the ball bounces. Should be an exciting tournament, and can’t wait!

bksmith14

November 15th, 2012
12:24 am

camden county will beat norcross convincingly if they play…..not even close. Much better team..much better coaching…homefield or not. 27-10 would be score..camden

The Cross

November 15th, 2012
4:39 am

Thanks for that in depth analysis Radio I mean Bk. Loren has probably wasted a ton of money on high powered computers and programming. He could have just hired you for $8 per hour and just like that you can spit out the analysis and the final score. How do you do it Bk? Your post get more moronic everyday! It is amazing!

Norcross 38 Camden 24

Because I said so!

The Cross

RobFromNorcross

November 15th, 2012
6:27 am

I’ll let our young men answer the question of who will win in each of these games. I have seen our team play, and I have seen 12 other playoff teams in action . (6 of them against Norcross- Colquitt, North Gwinnett, Mill Creek, Collins Hill, Parkview, South Gwinnett- all wins)

I have watched Camden, Lassiter, West Forsyth, McEachern,…

If Norcross plays as they are capable of playing, then I like our chances. I think they are prepared, I think they are ready, and unlike those of us fans on these formums, they are not looking past anyone.

Bksmith14

November 15th, 2012
7:18 am

If anyone is wondering why I love Lowndes so much, this is my story:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gca8-s097jA

RealisticFan

November 15th, 2012
8:12 am

Very cool stats.

Interesting looking that the 5 favorites according to this and the disparity in the percentages of how often those favorites were chosen to win it all.

AAAAAA- Camden 28%
AAAAA – Northside 50%
AAAA – Sandy Creek 44%
AAA – Thomson – 31%
AA – Calhoun – 43%

The higher the % suggesting the less parity there is among the teams in this particular version of the draws. Northside at 50% really sticks out as the biggest favorite of all. Also interesting though is that between the top three in AAAAA that they make up 83% of the winning scenarios which is also the highest across the classifications although only slightly ahead of AA at 81%.

Loren Maxwell

November 15th, 2012
9:02 am

@FridayNightLightsFan: “Very interesting stuf. Thanks Loren.”

Thanks!

@LoveFridayFootball: “No love for 1A…”

I am trying to post the Class A results here, but without success for some reason. At the latest they will be included in next week’s simulation.

Todd Holcomb

November 15th, 2012
9:29 am

Class A has been added to the original story.

Loren Maxwell

November 15th, 2012
9:32 am

Thanks, Todd!

NGHS 09

November 15th, 2012
1:27 pm

What a surprise LOL….Out of the top ten teams in AAAAAA on that list with the highest chances to win it all…look who has the toughest draw. It never fails…same thing every year LOL Just can’t catch a break.

NG – Draw Rating = 83.39

NGHS 09

November 15th, 2012
1:42 pm

The highlights in that Norcross video are of players from 4 and 5 years ago.

The Cross

November 15th, 2012
2:09 pm

Lets change the subject for a min. We all know Norcoss is going to win it all. Bk…did you get your whooper today at burger king on your lunch break? I go through the burger king drive through almost every day here. Its starting to work on me some. Got to start workinig out again i reckon. Anyways, i know my skills and knowledege in football are second to none, but i am also a good dancer and i have video to prove it. I do this in my spare time. Take a look, link below. Tell me what you think guys.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J659hiXiUbM

Decatur 4 Life

November 15th, 2012
2:15 pm

bksmith14

“camden county will beat norcross convincingly if they play…..not even close”

Not a Norcross fan but are you saying this because Camden came in your backyard and tap that behind, I don’t know sir that sounds like such a bias statement.

bksmith14

November 15th, 2012
2:23 pm

Cross….please man..never post another video of you dancing. and get some clothes on man….if you can find any that fit. i threw up in my mouth watching that.

i wish lowndes could play norcross….unforunatley camden or colquitt will knock them out first

Decatur 4 Life

November 15th, 2012
2:39 pm

A lot of talk about region 1-AAAAAA but last season only one of 4 teams made it passed the 2nd round last year. Also yall talk much stuff about Rush Propst and his cheating ways but he’s had the recent playoff success from that region, just sayin

G-dub

November 15th, 2012
4:33 pm

Thank God they play on the field and not on paper.

The Cross

November 15th, 2012
5:07 pm

Bk-Ok…good one. I call a truce. That was awesome though.

The Cross

bskmith14

November 15th, 2012
6:03 pm

Cross…..you better bring your A game if you want to play jokes with me. LOL….that was a hilarious video of you dancing though….lol!!!

JAB

November 15th, 2012
6:22 pm

RANKINGS ARE WRITERS CHESS MOVES… ;)

bskmith14

November 15th, 2012
6:35 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-67Xt5R8DY

another one of your videos cross…………this one is of your one of your norcross friends that cheer with you every fri night

footballmom

November 15th, 2012
6:49 pm

Numbers, numbers, numbers….that’s all you all are banking on. What really counts is what happens on the field the night of the game! What you THINK might happen is just that…a thought! Wait to see what the brackets say next Friday night when the games are over and lights are out.

fo real

November 15th, 2012
9:08 pm

bksmith14- One of the biggets negatives of running team like lowndes is that in practice you scrimmage against run. Wait until you play lassiter. Make it rain all day. Plus they play in a region that they have to defend the run. It’s gonna be ugly when eddie printz picks you apart. no need to thread the needle.

fo real

November 15th, 2012
9:09 pm

biggest

bksmith14

November 15th, 2012
9:31 pm

for real………..not worried about lassiter……..lowndes has more speed…it would be a sackfest…and besides……….walton held them to 21 at lassiter and walton has a bad defense…….lassiter wouldnt break 14 against lowndes

bksmith14

November 15th, 2012
9:33 pm

colquitt and valdosta both run the spread…colquitt had 1 td…offensively….valdosta 2………against the lowndes defense…….their is a reason lassiter has no titles…..and lowndes does…

HS football fan

November 16th, 2012
7:25 am

Lassiter was missing one of our best wide receivers during region play…he’s back! I’m not sure any team has enough talent at db to cover all of their weapons. To make matters worse, Lassiter averages 152 yards rushing per game too. They put up over 400 yards per game EVERY Friday night! Good luck!

cat doc

November 16th, 2012
4:35 pm

I am glad they play the game on a feild all those numbers make me dizzy.

sportsnut

November 18th, 2012
10:37 am

I assume the odds will change now.

Seen a few

November 19th, 2012
11:51 am

I’d like to see the new odds. When do they get posted?
Thanks

Tipp Smooth

November 20th, 2012
1:55 pm

Let’s go Camden…don’t eat too much Turkey..