Maxwell’s odds of going 10-0 for the remaining unbeaten teams

There are 21 unbeaten, untied teams in Georgia entering the final two weeks of the season. Of those, only 15 have a better than 50-50 chance of finishing 10-0, according to the Maxwell Ratings. Two of the six that are projected not to finish 10-0 are No. 1-ranked Camden County and No. 4 Lowndes, which play each other tonight in Valdosta. How is that? The winner is very likely to finish 10-0, but nobody has won yet. Maxwell rates Lowndes’ chances of beating Camden as 38 percent. That explains Lowndes. Meanwhile, Camden must win at Lowndes and then at Colquitt County. Camden has a 68 percent of beating Lowndes, a 76 percent chance of beating Colquitt, but only a 47 percent chance of beating both. What are the chances that Maxwell will be wrong? There is an 85 percent chance that Lowndes or Camden County will be 10-0. Go figure.

Here are the chances of finishing 10-0 for the 21 teams that are 8-0 or 9-0, according to Maxwell. There were 21 teams that were 10-0 in 2011.

Norcross (9-0) – 100%

Calhoun (8-0) – 100%

Brooks County (9-0) – 99%

Thomson (9-0) – 96%

Northside-W.R. (8-0) – 89%

Athens Academy (8-0) – 89%

Lassiter (8-0) – 88%

Walker (8-0) – 81%

Cartersville (8-0) – 81%

Vidalia (8-0) – 80%

Sandy Creek (8-0) – 78%

Heard County (8-0) – 75%

East Paulding (8-0) – 74%

Peach County (8-0) – 74%

M.L. King (8-0) – 60%

Camden County (8-0) – 47%

Monroe Area (8-0) – 44%

Carver-Atlanta (8-0) – 44%

Lowndes (9-0) – 38%

Chamblee (8-0) – 22%

Allatoona (8-0) – 18%

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5 comments Add your comment

THE "CANNON RULES"!!

November 2nd, 2012
7:41 am

Interesting that the only real obstacle to EAST going 10 / 0 is next weeks game in “THE BONEYARD” against ALLATOONA, while ALLATOONA has to play NORTH at 6 / 2 tonight and EAST next week.

It would seem EAST would be a bit higher than only 74%?!?!?!?!

TICK…TICK…TICK…BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!
GO RAIDERS!!!

Fred

November 2nd, 2012
9:47 am

@Cannon – It is the uncertainty factor of 2 games vs 1. That is the deal with Camden as well. Two opportunities for “oops” instead of 1. Norcross is 100% because they just have 1 more game -not sure against who – but that is fewer opportunities to be surprised. I wouldn’t read too much into it.

Cville Canes

November 3rd, 2012
12:05 pm

@ Maxwell Cartersville Canes will be 10-0, 100%. The ratings underestimate the Canes and region 5 AAA.

Go Canes!!!!!!!!!!

Swamp Lizard

November 4th, 2012
8:43 pm

Walker …. undefeated …. one & done in the playoffs.

Walker Fan

November 5th, 2012
1:08 pm

@SwampLizard…two points
1) If Walker is undefeated, they will have a 3, 4, of 5 seed based on region winners being seed first (by power rating) followed by non-region winners, again by power rating. Whoever they play in that positon, it will be a competiive game win or lose.
2) Regardless of outcome, we will have done it with kids who have been in the school since elementary, most since pre-K, unlike ELCA’s recruiting machine…adding seniors is just shameful. We will be happy either way.