Strength of schedule for AAAAAA and AAAAA teams

Colquitt County and Coffee play on Friday in Moultrie in a game that might decide which team makes the playoffs out of Region 1-AAAAAA. According to the computer Maxwell Ratings, Colquitt is the eighth-best team and Coffee is the 13th best in AAAAAA. But they also have the toughest two schedules in the state, and the loser will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs. Here are the Maxwell Ratings’ rankings of each team’s strength of schedule for AAAAAA and AAAAA. We’ll have the other classifications later in the week. The rating is an indication of strength for the average opponent. For example, Colquitt’s average opponent is about 13 points better than Lassiter’s average opponent, according to Maxwell.

Class AAAAAA

1. Colquitt County (5-3) 76.26

2. Coffee (5-3) 74.2

3. Dacula (1-7) 72.75

4. Tift County (2-7) 72.16

5. Brookwood (6-2) 70.68

6. Brunswick (3-5) 70.62

7. Parkview (6-2) 70.54

8. South Gwinnett (6-2) 70.18

9. Central Gwinnett (4-4) 70.14

10. Valdosta (5-3) 70.01

11. Peachtree Ridge (3-5) 69.7

12. Walton (6-2) 68.94

13. Woodstock (3-5) 68.38

14. Berkmar (1-7) 68.07

15. Grayson (7-1) 67.71

16. Archer (6-3) 66.85

17. Roswell (2-6) 66.54

18. Milton (5-3) 66.05

19. Shiloh (3-6) 65.94

20. Alpharetta (5-3) 64.96

21. Centennial (3-5) 64.67

22. Camden County (8-0) 64.66

23. McEachern (6-2) 64.58

24. Norcross (9-0) 64.54

25. Mountain View (3-5) 64.52

26. Etowah (4-4) 64.47

27. Wheeler (4-4) 64.37

28. Cherokee (1-7) 64.36

29. Harrison (4-4) 64.05

30. Duluth (3-5) 64

31. East Coweta (3-5) 63.93

32. Lassiter (8-0) 63.85

33. Mill Creek (5-3) 63.7

34. West Forsyth (7-1) 63.11

35. Pebblebrook (0-8) 62.66

36. Collins Hill (5-3) 62.45

37. Johns Creek (7-1) 62.32

38. Habersham (1-8) 62.26

39. Hillgrove (5-3) 61.61

40. Marietta (6-2) 61.41

41. Meadowcreek (0-8) 61.3

42. Lowndes (9-0) 61.15

43. Lambert (5-3) 60.95

44. Chattahoochee (5-3) 60.93

45. North Gwinnett (7-1) 60.89

46. Westlake (0-8) 60.85

48. Douglas County (2-6) 60.54

47. Tri-Cities (3-5) 60.54

49. North Cobb (6-2) 60.26

50. Kennesaw Mtn. (2-6) 58.96

51. North Forsyth (3-5) 58.84

52. South Cobb (6-2) 58.23

53. Campbell (3-6) 57.81

54. Newnan (6-2) 57.14

55. South Forsyth (3-5) 56.33

56. Newton (3-5) 52.53

57. Hughes (7-1) 52.46

58. Rockdale County (2-6) 49.23

59. Luella (2-7) 48.87

60. Lovejoy (8-1) 47.09

61. Alcovy (3-5) 47.06

62. Morrow (1-7) 44.9

63. Druid Hills (3-5) 37.87

Class AAAAA

1. Dunwoody (1-7) 60.84

2. Flowery Branch (7-2) 60.24

3. Clarke Central (3-5) 59.26

4. Gainesville (7-1) 58.67

5. North Atlanta (0-8) 58.27

6. Stephenson (5-2-1) 57.74

7. Winder-Barrow (1-7) 57.64

8. Grovetown (2-6) 57.54

9. Thomas Co. Cent. (8-1) 57.13

10. Lakeside, Atlanta (1-7) 56.78

11. Mays (5-3) 56.77

12. M.L. King (8-0) 56.4

13. Loganville (2-6) 56.35

14. Lakeside, Evans (4-4) 55.69

15. Apalachee (4-4) 55.45

16. Cedar Shoals (3-5) 55.14

17. Northside, W.R. (8-0) 54.72

18. Salem (2-6) 54.56

19. Miller Grove (6-2) 54.17

20. Arabia Mountain (2-6) 54.05

21. Northgate (3-5) 53.98

22. Starr’s Mill (2-6) 53.98

23. Greenbrier (1-7) 53.9

24. Hardaway (2-6) 53.88

25. Bainbridge (5-3) 53.75

26. SW DeKalb (5-3) 53.71

27. Tucker (7-1) 53.43

28. Houston County (3-5) 53.22

29. Evans (3-5) 53.06

30. Sprayberry (2-6) 52.89

31. Harris County (4-4) 52.78

32. Paulding County (1-8) 52.76

33. Warner Robins (7-1) 52.69

34. Kell (7-1) 52.54

35. Heritage, Con. (7-2) 52.42

36. Lithia Springs (1-7) 52.37

37. Woodland, Cart. (2-6) 52.34

38. New Manchester (2-7) 52.07

39. Mundy’s Mill (3-5) 51.23

40. Jones County (5-3) 50.84

41. Villa Rica (4-4) 50.79

42. Groves (0-8) 50.49

43. Hiram (3-5) 50.37

44. Windsor Forest (1-7) 49.96

45. South Paulding (4-4) 49.45

46. Pope (6-2) 49.19

47. Forest Park (0-8) 49.03

48. North Paulding (6-2) 48.95

49. Mt. Zion, Jones. (0-8) 48.84

50. Rome (6-2) 48.54

51. Whitewater (7-1) 48.12

52. East Paulding (8-0) 47.82

53. Allatoona (8-0) 47.72

54. Ware County (7-1) 47.17

55. Northside, Col. (2-5-1) 46.96

56. Glynn Academy (5-3) 46.89

57. Osborne (1-7) 46.73

58. Creekside (6-3) 45.13

59. Bradwell Institute (1-7) 44.65

60. Lee County (6-2) 44.41

61. Ola (3-5) 43.81

62. Jenkins (5-3) 43.75

63. Union Grove (7-1) 43.73

64. Effingham County (5-3) 43.48

65. McIntosh (5-3) 43.44

66. Northview (2-6) 42.3

67. Drew (6-2) 39.85

68. Cambridge (1-7) 39.4

69. North Springs (0-8) 37.89

70. Forsyth Central (2-6) 37.74

71. Sequoyah (5-3) 37.05

72. Riverwood (6-3) 36.33

73. Richmond Hill (6-2) 34.6

74. Creekview (7-1) 33.72

75. Clarkston (4-5) 14.45

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94 comments Add your comment

FridayNightLightsFan

October 30th, 2012
8:15 am

HMMM? If Lovejoy didn’t play Colquitt County they might have been the bottom of the list.

outside looking in

October 30th, 2012
8:23 am

Your right, but being placed in a week conference by the state is not their fault. They are playing the schedule handed to them and they are doing what they have to do. Just like last year when they were doubted. They were going to lose to Kell and beat them. They were going to lose to Ware County, beat them. Gonna lose to Warner Robins, beat them. Lets see what happens this year in the playoffs and then you can run your mouth.

gman57

October 30th, 2012
9:05 am

Coffee will have a strong showing on Friday night. This team will make a bold statement the last 2 games of the regular season. They are 1 click away from bringing it all together. As I see it, Special Teams is the only weakness Coffee has at this moment.

FridayNightLightsFan

October 30th, 2012
9:10 am

But But But. Its just fun playing with Sportsnut. :)

Rankings are fun.
Blogs are fun.
Games are played.

Dekalb Co Guy

October 30th, 2012
9:43 am

Strength of schedule is a weird thing though, and of course the whole season hasnt been played yet. But Dunwoody has the toughest schedule because they play in 5A Region 6, but SW Dekalb and Tucker are 26th and 27th respectively from the same region. Therefore someone might infer that S.O.S. gives bad teams credit for losing to good teams, but good teams cant get credit.

Also just curious, Dunwoody 1 and SW Dekalb 26, but 6 of their 8 games were against the same opponents. The 2 differences, SW dekalb has yet to play Miller Grove and Dunwoody hasnt played Arabia Mtn. Then they play each other the final week. And in their 1 non region game, Dunwoody played a AAAA team (though unbeaten) and SW DEkalb played a 6a team (winless) . Did those differences cause such a disparity for Dunwoody to be considered having played the toughest 5A schedule while SWD is only 26?

how 'bout

October 30th, 2012
9:50 am

@AJC STAFF

…this is cute …BUT IT’S WEAK LAZY JOURNALISM …INSTEAD REGURGITATING Maxwell strength of schedule rankings YOU GUYS PUT A LITTLE EFFORT INTO THIS …and SAY LET US ALL KNOW HOW EACH REGION SHAKES OUT GOING INTO THIS WEEK OF MEGA MATCH-UPS …BECAUSE AFTER THIS FRIDAY WE WON’T NEED YOU GUYS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT’S A STAKE GOING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF GAMES AS FAR AS THE TEAMS MAKING THE PLAYOFFS AND THEIR SEATINGS… (IMHO)

how 'bout

October 30th, 2012
9:50 am

…but hey what do the rest of you think …squabble ’bout who got the best of the bad luck draw …or talking ’bout what can still be possible …even if not probable…

Heisenberg

October 30th, 2012
9:52 am

Interesting and on par with what many have argued on this blog about regions 1 & 8. I would be curious if this could be broken out into strength of schedule for only games won and strength of schedule for only games lost. That would give an indication of the quality of the wins and a better measure of what to expect when going against better opponents in the playoffs. Naturally these numbers do not change for undefeated or teams without a win.

Not to pick on Colquitt County but since they are the top of the list, they can be the example. Of the 5 wins, 2 came against lower classifications (a 4A & a 5A). The combined record for both of these lower classifications is 16-1. These are good teams in those classifications but not the same as beating a 6A opponent. Of the 3 6A wins, only 1 (Lovejoy at 8-1 against one of the easiest schedules) could be considered a quality win. The other 2 are a combined 5-12 (against a tougher schedule) making the record of wins against 6A competition an even 13-13. Colquitt loses have all been against 6A opponents with a combined record of 21-4 (against middle of the pack strength of schedules). Throwing out the lower classification games, Colquitt is 3-3 against 6A competition. This makes Colquitt a good but not really good or great team.

Considering Colquitt is in a 3 way battle for 2 playoff spots and will go on the road should they get in probably against either McEachern or Marietta from region 4, I would expect they would play a close competitive game but come up short.

Jefferson

October 30th, 2012
9:58 am

When you are good, your schedule seems weak.

When you are bad, its you against the world.

. RealisticFan

October 30th, 2012
10:36 am

@FNL

Reg5AAAAA ( EP, Allatoona, Rome, NP) of which toughest schedule is #48

vs first round opponents

Reg8AAAAA (Gainsville, FB, Heritage-Conyers, CC), of which 3 are ranked in the top 4

One paper Reg8 appears much more battle tested. Reg5 needs to be ready for a fight.

Camden74

October 30th, 2012
10:59 am

All I can do is sit back and smile about this subject……… :-)

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
11:13 am

This is laughable! :-) For years, we have heard senseless posters in the overhyped Region 1 complain about programs like Camden County having a weak schedule. What I know is this. Northside (Warner Robins) last played in the largest classification State Championship in our last season in the largest classification in 2009. That Northside team beat three different teams that had been ranked nationally in the top 10 in AMERICA!

We ended the senseless National Championship whispers coming out of Valdosta by beating Lownes County (ranked third in the nation). We ended the season of Peachtree Ridge, ranked as high as eighth in the nation. We beat undefeated Newnan at Newnan with Alec Ogletree, ranked high nationally.

We then faced Camden County, who had “supposedly” played a WEAK schedule. The result was one of the most brutal beatings that our beloved Eagles have had in decades. This is simply another attempt for the AJC to hype coaches and programs that the AJC adores, errrr Colquitt County. This is additional propoganda!

HaveBinocularsWillTravel

October 30th, 2012
11:17 am

Heisenberg— As region 1-AAAAAA’s 3rd OR 4th place team, Colquitt will travel to and demolish either oMACg’s McEachern Redskins or Marietta. Either one or both if they combined’em! Trouble is, Colquitt may not even make the playoffs.

Oh, and YES, Payne WILL be in the stadium Nov. 9th with binoculars. Colquitt Fan and WildHawg2012, you can bet on it!

AVikingFan

October 30th, 2012
11:29 am

eaglenationrising — refresh your memory or laptop! Not a single region 1 fan EVER suggested Camden was in a weak region or that they should come over and join us! Their old region was stronger than Cherokee’s, or West Forsyth’s, etc. That was all coming from the Greater Atlanta jabber mouths, and you know it. Also yes, NSWR did defeat us in 2009, but what happened in 2008? Did we not also do the same to your Eagles who thought they were world beaters? Lowndes defeated NSWR 24-7!!! And what did we do to ya’ll in the “Flop of All Time” games in the 99 semi’s?
31-28!!!! Or have you forgotten.

You know, you’re kinda weird. All Northside fans and booster but you say they wish Northside was still in our region where there is some “competition.” Even the much respected reeze says so! Do you live in a vacuum? You should lay off the Union Grove, Stephenson and Newnan Koolaid!

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
11:35 am

First, who is Maxwell? Where has he been all of these years. What difference does strength of schedule have to do when you have a playoff system? There is no data that can create a credible correlation between strength of schedule and hoisting a State Championship. There is no correlation whatsoever.

Valdosta is America’s winningest program. However, they are along the same level of a Brooks County, perhaps St. Pius X, today. Before one person from Colquitt County speaks about State Championship game appearances, tell the board how many seasons have the Packers lost 5 or more games. You can not lose 4+ games every 3 seasons and call yourself a top program in Georgia. There is clearly a connection between the AJC and Colquitt County’s mediocre program. Look at the top programs year in and year out in Georgia (Camden County, Northside-Warner Robins, Tucker, Marist, Buford, etc.). They may lose 10 games in a decade. The AJC should be ashamed and STOP this propoganda exercise. When you have 2500-3000 students and lose to AA schools, you are not what you think you are. When you lose to one Middle Georgia school 17 out of 18 games, you are not what you think you are.

Camden County (the program maligned for playing a weak schedule in their own geography) is going to show all of Region 1 what they are…just like Northside (Warner Robins) did. SOS. What a joke! Practically every high school program plays a schedule dictated by geography. This is high school sports, not the SEC.

I wish all the posters could actually see how those South Georgia fanbases turn on their own kids and coaches once the scoreboard starts looking a little negative. If you saw the Falcons game this past weekend and watched those gutless Philly fans, that is your typical South Georgia fanbase. In one word, “frontrunners.” Coffee, Colquitt County, Valdosta and Thomas County Central posters, deny that Northside did not clear out each of those stadiums by the middle of the third quarter with fans booing their own kids and coaches. Deny it! You can not.

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
11:43 am

@ AVikingFan: I personally consider Lowndes County to have a “special” fanbase. However, even you have to admit that Colquitt County and information surrounding that program has been force fed down our throats for the past few seasons. I could get it if they actually won something. However, they have not.

Where was the strength of schedule meter when programs like Lowndes County and Northside-Warner Robins (who could have been top 5 program) could not even make the playoffs back when only one Region representative made the playoffs.

I would make the point about strength of schedule best by rehashing the negative memory of Camden County undressing my Eagles in the middle of the Georgia Dome in 2009. People, especially Region 1 (South Georgia) and these Gwinnett County regions (Region 7 & 8) openly complained on this board (we were both here) about Camden County’s “weak scheduling.” I made the point back then and I will make the point again. A program can not change their geography.

People often say that Northside football should play in AAAAAA when our real enrollment is that of a AAAAA school and practically every school in our own geography (Warner Robins, Houston County and Jones County) are AAAAA schools. There are more sports and GHSA activities than just football.

It did not make logical sense for Camden County. They ran up the score on a GREAT Northside team that had a SUPERIOR strength of schedule. It did not matter. They were the better…heck, much better…team on that night (probably others too). This is gross AJC propoganda. This is GHSFDaily’s justification for their love affair with Colquitt County HS, a program that is (at best) above average but FAR from elite.

sportsnut

October 30th, 2012
11:44 am

Same as last season. Region 4 AAAA was also the weakest in the state. This was without a doubt true. Problem was though, when it boiled down a little, say the final eight(8), two of those remained. Funny how things work ! Yes, that sorry region produced a participant for the Championship game and it was no fluke. That school earned what they got. Through all the talk that took place about them not belonging, just as it is now, they achieved. There is no reason to think they can not get there again. The reason given is just crazy. ” It is 6A “. THATS THE REASON ? Get serious! Many will have you think there is some validity to this Idea. Those with a little common sense and that includes the ability to be impartial will see, given all the intangibles and variables involved, they would come to the conclussion that it is possible for them to compete and they have just as much a chance as anyone else. The road ahead will be just as the road of the past. On it, we will encounter many who are on the same quest as we are. We will have to deal with each obstacle as it presents itself. That is how it was done and nothing will change.

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
11:51 am

@ AVikingFan: I wish that a Camden County poster was on this page, right now. It is disingenuous to claim that “no one” from our region (we were in the same region at the time battling for the Region title). There was EXTENDED conversations about Camden County’s weak schedule. Because you did not say it, does not mean that people from the area did not. Going on record and saying that “no one” from region 1 said that is a HUGE statement that you can not back up. I know a Northside poster and two Warner Robins poster along with many others that whispered and posted that Camden County should not play those AAA Savannah schools (code for weak schedule). It was not you and many Lowndes posters because Camden had kicked you around. It stopped from Northside and Warner Robins folks after Camden kicked us around in 2009.

The folks in Gwinnett have regularly had chatter for years about Camden County’s weak “Savannah” schedule. It happened. Of course, Camden County has slowly stopped the chatter across the state by cracking teams from across the state and hoisting State Championships. Titles have a way of ending the talk.

AVikingFan

October 30th, 2012
11:53 am

eaglenationrising – I was just messing with you old friend. I ALWAYS enjoy your posts. They are as folks in and around Fargo, GA say “sensical.” As a former school board member, I know about the trouble with all those “other sports” having to travel long distances on school nights. NSWR is doing the correct thing. Good luck this year in AAAAA!

AVikingFan

October 30th, 2012
11:56 am

@ENR My Vikings have met Camden in the semi’s twice and Camden has yet to score a single point. The combined score is Lowndes 40, Camden 0. That’s not “kicking us around.” Just saying…..

how 'bout

October 30th, 2012
12:04 pm

@AVikingFan …and let’s not forget all the times Camden County has sent you home early…

Tipp Smooth

October 30th, 2012
12:05 pm

@Eaglenationrising, you are 100% correct, for years
all you heard was Camden playing in a weak region or
Savannah schools, whenever they played out of region
the still won, go ask the Brookwoods, Parkviews, Peachtree
Ridges, Lowndes, Valdosta, First Coast Jacksonville, Hoover
Alabama, Aiken South Carolina, just to name a few, now that
Camden is doing the darn thang in Region 1 the talk has soften
some what, but there is still whispering going on, winning will
stop the whispering..

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
12:06 pm

Tucker is another example of a program that has supposedly had “weak” scheduling in the past. They have one two State Championships in 3 seasons (although we all know that the last one was gift wrapped by a certain Middle Georgia program). 8)

how 'bout

October 30th, 2012
12:07 pm

…Friday night should be fun …fans …boosters …and especially the coaches and players :D …here’s to a another classic and all the kids making it through without injury…

Heisenberg

October 30th, 2012
12:07 pm

HaveBinocularsWillTravel, I have no ill will towards Colquitt. Just an impartial analysis based on the subject matter of this thread. I used a similar technique to project Milton to defeat Walton this past week and…………………………wait! What?

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
12:23 pm

@AVikingFan: FYI: Camden County sent us home early one year. That was our lesson in losing one game in Region 1. We got to travel to Florida, errr Kingsland, in the 2nd round with what I know what the 3rd of 4th best team in the state that season. Of course, that little Greg Reid created some challenges.

If you look at the history of Northside (Warner Robins) and Camden County, we only have one pre-State Championship loss to Camden County. At the end of the day, I believe those folks down there have done a great job building their program. I have even more respect for them in seeing how their former top assistant made Tucker a player (DeKalb County sports is not easy…at all).

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
12:30 pm

Maxwell has been slowly forced down our throats. High school football in Georgia is about local rivalries with then morph into state rivalries in the hunt for a trip to the Georgia Dome. As a subscriber to the AJC and regular on AJC.com…and as a tremendous fan of high school sports in Georgia, I believe that people should speak out against these number being made a part of the conversation by the AJC.

As many of you know, I was a college basketball coach for almost a decade. I recruited players in South Florida, were 15 year old…16 year old and 17 year old kids were intimidated and physically assaulted due to underground gambling in high school sports. This is real and the AJC making this Maxwell data a part of the conversation is bigger than most of us reading game spreads and SOS data.

For a matter of fact, I am going to write the editor of the AJC. This is complete chaos. Take a look at the past decade in the largest classification. The team that won the most State Championship (Camden County) supposedly had the weakest schedule. High school football is local. When we have big games like Northside (Warner Robins) vs. Warner Robins and MLK vs. Tucker, does anyone think the kids are evaluating their opponents’ SOS? It is useless. The AJC and GHSF Daily are forcing this Maxwell crap into the high school conversation. IT SHOULD STOP!

Todd Holcomb

October 30th, 2012
12:34 pm

Dekalb Co Guy – The reason that Dunwoody’s schedule is harder than Tucker’s (when they are playing basically the same teams) is that Dunwoody has to play Tucker, and Tucker doesn’t.

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
12:35 pm

That previous post is full of typos. My point is that spreads (from Maxwell) and SOS of schedule data (also from Maxwell) is generally used in gambling. I love casinos, like the outdoor poker room in Hollywood at the Hard Rock, Beau Rivage in Biloxi or the Hard Rock in Tampa. However, I pray that I NEVER see my high school (Northside) or any other high school in some form of gambling. Todd or Chip need to articulate to us how spread and SOS data is valuable for anyone that is not gambling. If Todd or Chip doubt what I am saying, I will happily accompany you guys to a football or basketball game at Miami Northwestern HS or Ft. Lauderdale Dillard HS or many others across Dade, Broward & Palm Beach counties. This is unproductive. You guys should call Colquitt County and tell him that the state of high school football in Georgia trumps an insecure coach feeling better about his multi-loss regular season!

Todd Holcomb

October 30th, 2012
12:37 pm

”First, who is Maxwell? Where has he been all of these years. What difference does strength of schedule have to do when you have a playoff system?”

If you put it that way, then what difference does anything make? Don’t talk about history. Don’t talk about players having great seasons. Don’t talk about big games that are coming up. Don’t talk about rankings. None of it matters since we have a playoff system. The reason we write about strength of schedule or most anything else is that people find it interesting. Nobody says that it matters.

As for Maxwell:

The ratings are compiled by Loren Maxwell, who has been involved with sports ratings since 1986. Maxwell is an avid sports historian and the founder of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Currently, he is an active duty officer in the Air Force as an instructor at the Air Force Institute of Technology.

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
12:38 pm

Todd is here! Why Todd? Seriously, help us out here. Why is the Maxwell data (spreads, SOS) appropriate to the conversation with a 32 team playoff system?

Jefferson

October 30th, 2012
12:42 pm

why don’t you just stop eagle, the world according to you is not the world. Go Demons.

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
12:49 pm

LOL, Jefferson. Is your brilliant coach going to open the Big Game with silly trick plays again this year? We were a little worried that you guys were going to fire Brian Way (a real class guy) after only winning 5 games in two years.

Jefferson, I remember when Warner Robins HS used to really care about football. Now, you boys are just happy to be competitive against us and finish in the top ten. We have completely dismasculated the Demon program in 15 short years. Decades of excellence has been replaced with simply accepting getting violated by Northside annually. I love it! :-)

Demon fans had put up a white flag in the first quarter last year (although, your kids kept fighting as stands emptied by halftime). 8) Will Demon fans make it to the 2nd quarter before hoisting a white flag this season? McConnell-Talbert Stadium is OUR LAND!

CoffeeC100

October 30th, 2012
12:55 pm

All of this does not matter. As far as region one goes we find out the answer to all the questions this weekend. I’ll be in Moultrie.

Cof Coffee!!

CoffeeC100

October 30th, 2012
12:56 pm

Please don’t cough Coffee. Instead…

Go Coffee!!

Fred

October 30th, 2012
12:56 pm

@eaglenationrising – To answer your first question, Loren Maxwell is a numbers guy that looks a the entire state, not just a single region/classification. I think he is also a part of the force behind the historians site so many of us use to back up (or not) our outrageous clams.

As to your questions/issues with the spread/point predictions, I for one find them very interesting and helpful as I look at other programs. I don’t have a gambling gene in my body and these projections don’t push me to develop one.

It seems that I vaguely remember you crowing some about rankings and ratings when NS is on top though. Maybe not his year but in previous years. As Todd points out, when you are one of the top programs, your SOS will not be as high because you don’t play yourself.

Double Standard

October 30th, 2012
1:00 pm

Lovejoy should be well rested and fresh come playoff time. Just like they were last year. Add home field advantage and the ‘home cooking” they get from the refs and they should be back in the dome again this year.

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
1:07 pm

ENR & Jefferson (along with every Northside Eagle fan across the globe) would like to announce our unyielding support for Warner Robins head football coach Bryan Way! We officially endorse a lifetime contract for the Demon head football coach who is like a gift that just keeps on giving. 8)

While Georgia High School Hall of Fame and former Warner Robins head coach Robert Davis went 21-7 as the head coach at Warner Robins against Northside (Warner Robins) while winning 2 National Championships and 3 State Championships. The great Bryan Way has hoisted one State Championship in 2004 for the Demons has amassed a record of 2-6 in the Big Game (City Championship).

Like Jefferson, I love this guy Coach Way. He has done so much for Northside Eagle football, I mean Warner Robins Demon football. He has really done great work for that program. 8) This is not the world according to ENR. This is the world, Jefferson. Our Eagles are going to confirm what you know and believe about the world on Friday night in OUR STADIUM (McConnell-Talbert Stadium) on OUR LAND. We will “let” the Demons play Lakeside (Evans) there next Friday after we make another example out of the Demon program. :-)

how 'bout

October 30th, 2012
1:13 pm

Todd Holcomb – why are we discussing Maxwell SOS instead of…

…how ’bout a 5-3 Colquitt controls its own playoff destiny and could finish as high as #2 by winning out or on the outside looking by losing their last two or…

…how ’bout in reg1 Grayson with its national rankings and Parkview’s upset loss, Grayson still needs help to win their region or…

…how ’bout that due to pairing how some region champs might find themselves facing a tougher road to the dome than the 2nd or 3rd seeds from their regions or

…who needs to do what these last 2 weeks or almost anything other than this…

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
1:16 pm

@ Fred: I do not believe that the gambling issue would be a part of practically any person that posts regularly. Surely, I am not the only person that sees that if a major publication posts spreads (that is exactly what they are) on one of the largest publications in the entire nation that there are underground elements that will use those numbers. Should this happen, as it happens in many major cities (Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles, etc.) there is the real possibility that this becomes a part of Georgia high schools in places like Atlanta and potentially other places.

We are being a little naive to assume that spreads are posted in the paper and no one is gambling. These numbers have absolutely nothing to do with anything. Loren Maxwell is probably a good man. However, projected spreads is a pretty complex deal that includes a myriad of factors that no one can have. How many of these AJC guys do you believe actually see the majority of high school football games? This is a HUGE state and the AJC & GHSF Daily staff is not nearly big enough to cover the 9th largest state in the nation.

Spreads lead to gambling. The strength of schedule question should be addressed. What is the point of a strength of schedule with a 32 team playoff system? Teams with losing records or 0.500 records reach the state playoffs. Some of them (i.e. Colquitt County) reach the state championship with a 0.500 regular season record.

Practically every regular poster on this site is aware of the multi-year conversation about the SOS of Camden County HS. I point to 2009 when Camden County destroyed my beloved Eagles of Northside (Warner Robins) who beat a series of top nationally ranked programs including Miami Booker T. Washington, Lowndes County, Peachtree Ridge (in overtime) and Newnan. Camden County played no one and beat us like a drum. There are a myriad of other examples. High school football in Georgia proves that SOS means nothing. Again, what’s the point with such a large playoff system?

Mike Hunt

October 30th, 2012
1:18 pm

Cool how the number 1 high school in a region has it’s stregnth of schedule rated below the schools that they beat. Hmm . . . .

VikingTillEye

October 30th, 2012
1:19 pm

Camden will get beat by 3 touchdowns. You heard it here first. Do they have a better running game than us? NO. Do they have a better defense than us? NO. There’s no reason they should win this game in the Concrete Palace

Northside Dawg

October 30th, 2012
1:19 pm

@ENR: I like your confidence, but I hope we’re not giving Warner Robins “blackboard material”.

Fred

October 30th, 2012
1:21 pm

@how ’bout – Actually we are region 8 but you knew that. ;-) It has certainly been a topsy turvey year for region 8 for sure! One loss has hurt us in many ways. Parkview has won against all the right teams to put themselves in control of the region. Unless they lose again, the tie breakers come into effect and they win in the head to head competition – assuming we win out. I kind of thought it might come down to the lat week in region 8 to decide the region but this wasn’t the way I thought it would play out!

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
1:25 pm

@ Fred: I believe with all of my heart that high school football is local. If it creates what is perceived as a difficult schedule, so be it. If it does not, who cares because Georgia has such a large playoff system. If you go back, I have and would have continued to defend Camden County playing teams in their area.

I have said that it makes no logical sense to try to create super regions as many AJC writers and posters have pushed for. There was a push for Northside (Warner Robins), Warner Robins and Camden County to all play in Region 1. I said it then and would say it now that is make no sense to force high school kids (some as young as 14 years old) to get on a bus and ride 3-4 hours for the sake of playing in a “competitive” region. These are kids. Anyone on this board knows that I hated Northside (Warner Robins), Houston County and Warner Robins playing in Region 1.

Region 1 did not bring larger crowds for home games at Northside, with the exception of Lowndes County, because most of Region 1 assumed that they were going to get violated (which they did). When Northside plays local Middle Georgia teams like Peach County, Baldwin, Westside (Macon), etc. we get much larger crowd for all local sports and activities. These crowds create revenue which create additional opportunities for kids. I have said this for years…not to mention the gas costs for long trips. There are more sports and activities in GHSA than Friday night football games. Most sports are played on school nights. I never supported Northside’s best SOS opportunities because I know for a fact that our athletic programs lost tons of money. It is not worth it. High school sports is local!

Fred

October 30th, 2012
1:26 pm

@Mike Hunt – If you are on top, you don’t get the opportunity to play the top rated team. Sometimes I think we all get confused about the differences between ratings, rankings and standings. In GA, the only one that counts is standings. The others make for good discussion and when you throw strength of schedule in it just adds fuel to the fire.

Heisenberg

October 30th, 2012
1:27 pm

@eaglenationrising, how much did you lose?

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
1:29 pm

@ Northside Dawg: Demon players are not reading the AJC. I guarantee it! Most of Bryan Way’s kids would struggle finding the Macon Telegraph page. These Demons have no self confidence. I have returned to Letterwinner events back home. These Eagles work so hard and have so much discipline and confidence. It is honestly different than the early 1990s when I was in school.

It is not bulletin board material for a Demon football player that everyone thinks that they are going to get the score run up on them. They know it…in the depths of their soul. 8)

Fred

October 30th, 2012
1:33 pm

@eaglenationrising – I think I remember that you are a numbers guy but I could be wrong. If you are, you should appreciate his methods. Loren doesn’t attempt watch all of the games. He takes all the game results as reported, plugs them in and lets his algorithm crunch away. For him it is data entry only at this point. I would imagine that if he sees a consistent issue he will tweak the formula some but I don’t pretend to speak for him (although I have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express! 8) ) You and others may have issues with his reasoning but he is not biased as best as I can tell. It is very interesting to me to look at his projections and match them up against reality. Often they are real close but sometimes it is way off as he does not take into account injuries, rivalries, weather or anything other than the past scores.

eaglenationrising

October 30th, 2012
1:35 pm

@ Heisenberg: When we first move to Region 1, we (Booster Club) had to raise tens of thousands of additional funds that had never been needed before. It was not an issue of football. It was an issue of boy’s & girl’s basketball, baseball, softball, One Act, State Literary, Forensic (Debate), boy’s & girl’s golf & tennis. There were sports that needed money to travel that had not even taken trips in the past. Now, they were going on 3 hour trips…many in the middle of the week.

A baseball player with 5 out of 8 of his Region opponents 3-4 hours away would have to leave school (missed class time), play a game and return to Northside at 1 or 2 in the morning. This story is not what should be “normal” operating practice for the sake of saying that Northside (Warner Robins), Lowndes County, Valdosta, Warner Robins, Tift County, Colquitt County and Camden County all play in the same region in football. What do you think any of those programs mean in a conversation about top baseball programs…top basketball programs (boy’s or girl’s)…tennis…etc? The super-regions are about football. There is more to GHSA sports and activities than football, which is rarely played on a school night.