Today we conclude our examination of the playoff chances for every team in Class AAAAA with a look at Region 4, which began league play last week.
Keep in mind that no team was given a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs, because there are too many unknowns, and the 95 percent grade was reserved for Tucker and Northside-Warner Robins. Remember also that the top four teams in each region advance to the playoffs.
As always, tell us which teams on the list below are getting too much credit, and which ones are being underestimated.
Also note that Region 4 is subdivided, with the two subregion winners meeting in the region championship game and earning automatic berths in the state playoffs. The second- and third-place teams from each subregion will play crossover games on the final weekend of the regular season to determine the third and fourth state playoff teams.
Whitewater (85%) – The Wildcats have emerged as the region favorites after a 5-1 start and a victory last weekend against 2011 region champion Northgate. They can essentially wrap up the Division B subregion title with a victory against Creekside on Oct. 19.
Drew (75%) – The Titans are the favorites to win Division A and a spot against (most likely) Whitewater in the region championship game. Drew, which played in Class AAA last season, is 4-1 overall and 1-0 in subregion play.
Creekside (60%) – The Seminoles put themselves in good position for a run at the Division B title, and certainly to qualify for the play-in games, with a victory against Starr’s Mill last week.
Union Grove (60%) – If Drew doesn’t win its subregion, the title most likely will go to the Wolverines. But whichever team doesn’t win the subregion will have a good shot at a state playoff berth by winning a play-in game.
Northgate (45%) – The Vikings are 2-4 against a difficult schedule and lost a tough one to Whitewater 33-26 last weekend, but they can get back in the playoff picture if they can knock off Creekside on Friday.
Starr’s Mill (25%) – The Panthers are 2-4, but the losses have come against North Cobb, West Forsyth, Drew and Creekside. Don’t count Starr’s Mill completely out yet.
McIntosh (20%) – The Chiefs’ four victories already match their best win total since 1995, but getting another one is not going to be easy in subregion play.
Mundy’s Mill (10%) – The Tigers are tied for first place in Division A after beating Mount Zion-Jonesboro last week, but a game against Drew on Friday probably marks the beginning of the end.
Ola (10%) – The Mustangs could finish as high as third place in Division A, which would at least give them a shot at the playoffs.
Forest Park (5%) – The Panthers are 0-5 this year and haven’t won more than two games in a season since 2003.
Mount Zion (5%) – The Bulldogs are winless this season and have been outscored 203-32 in their five games.