Maxwell Ratings: Northside, Tucker, Sandy Creek, Callhoun are top-10 in all classes

Each week, AJC.com will publish the Maxwell Ratings to give fans a computerized look at how Georgia’s 412 football-playing teams rank in each class and in all classifications.

The Maxwell Ratings are based strictly on scores. As the season progresses, the rankings will rely more and more on this season’s results and less on previous seasons. By the playoffs, the rankings will reflect 2012 results entirely.

All classifications
1. Northside (Warner Robins) (94.35)
2. Camden County (93.9)
3. Lowndes (92.64)
4. Norcross (92.53)
5. Tucker (89.57)
6. Sandy Creek (88.93)
7. North Gwinnett (88.54)
8. Colquitt County (88.11)
9. Calhoun (87.55)
10. Grayson (87.35)
11. Lassiter (85.94)
12. Buford (85.78)
13. West Forsyth (84.14)
14. Peach County (83.71)
15. Gainesville (83.39)
16. Stephenson (83.09)
17. M.L. King (82.75)
18. Thomas County Central (82.33)
19. Lovejoy (81.5)
20. Parkview (81.26)
21. Burke County (81.03)
22. East Paulding (80.57)
23. Johns Creek (79.56)
24. South Gwinnett (79)
25. Walton (78.78)

Class AAAAAA
1. Camden County (93.9)
2. Lowndes (92.64)
3. Norcross (92.53)
4. North Gwinnett (88.54)
5. Colquitt County (88.11)
6. Grayson (87.35)
7. Lassiter (85.94)
8. West Forsyth (84.14)
9. Lovejoy (81.5)
10. Parkview (81.26)
11. Johns Creek (79.56)
12. South Gwinnett (79)
13. Walton (78.78)
14. Brookwood (78.51)
15. Mill Creek (76.81)
16. Coffee (76.7)
17. Collins Hill (76.63)
18. McEachern (76.55)
19. Valdosta (76.08)
20. Milton (75.55)
21. Newnan (75.17)
22. Archer (73.36)
23. North Cobb (73.18)
24. Marietta (72.89)
25. Hillgrove (72.22)
26. Peachtree Ridge (70.46)
27. Chattahoochee (70.25)
28. Alpharetta (69.84)
29. Central Gwinnett (69.35)
30. Lambert (68.33)
31. South Cobb (67.42)
32. Etowah (67.15)
33. East Coweta (66.04)
34. Tri-Cities (65.87)
35. Dacula (64.57)
36. Brunswick (64.28)
37. Wheeler (64.1)
38. Tift County (62.77)
39. Hughes (61.95)
40. Woodstock (61.94)
41. Harrison (61.24)
42. Duluth (59.09)
43. Roswell (57.74)
44. Newton (55.45)
45. Shiloh (54.93)
46. North Forsyth (53.09)
47. Westlake (53.01)
48. Mountain View (52.35)
49. Alcovy (51.68)
50. Centennial (51.31)
51. Pebblebrook (51.13)
52. South Forsyth (51.12)
53. Kennesaw Mountain (50.52)
54. Douglas County (49.57)
55. Campbell (48.95)
56. Cherokee (48.71)
57. Luella (47.37)
58. Berkmar (44.29)
59. Habersham Central (43.03)
60. Rockdale County (36.94)
61. Druid Hills (34.37)
62. Morrow (27.63)
63. Meadowcreek (22.7)

Class AAAAA
1. Northside (Warner Robins) (94.35)
2. Tucker (89.57)
3. Gainesville (83.39)
4. Stephenson (83.09)
5. M.L. King (82.75)
6. Thomas County Central (82.33)
7. East Paulding (80.57)
8. Warner Robins (78.14)
9. Kell (78.05)
10. Flowery Branch (75.01)
11. Ware County (74.63)
12. Bainbridge (71.79)
13. Allatoona (71.55)
14. Clarke Central (70.15)
15. Whitewater (69.56)
16. Southwest DeKalb (69.03)
17. Heritage (Conyers) (66.28)
18. Rome (64.02)
19. Pope (62.77)
20. Lee County (62.49)
21. Union Grove (62.47)
22. North Paulding (61.49)
23. Mays (60.92)
24. Creekview (60.12)
25. Cedar Shoals (60.04)
26. Creekside (59.97)
27. Drew (59.68)
28. Northgate (59.07)
29. Glynn Academy (58.83)
30. Lakeside (Evans) (57.51)
31. Jones County (56.98)
32. Richmond Hill (56.33)
33. South Paulding (56.32)
34. Hiram (54.31)
35. Starr’s Mill (53.91)
36. Riverwood (53.84)
37. Apalachee (53.47)
38. Evans (52.8)
39. Miller Grove (51.77)
40. Houston County (51.53)
41. Villa Rica (51.41)
42. Sprayberry (51.05)
43. Loganville (50.84)
44. Sequoyah (50.77)
45. Harris County (48.15)
46. Salem (47.97)
47. Effingham County (47.07)
48. Jenkins (47.03)
49. McIntosh (46.85)
50. Hardaway (44.74)
51. Greenbrier (44.2)
52. Grovetown (44.13)
53. Mundy’s Mill (43.63)
54. Arabia Mountain (43.54)
55. Ola (42.66)
56. Woodland (Cartersville) (41.65)
57. Northside (Columbus) (41.1)
58. Northview (41.05)
59. Dunwoody (41.01)
60. Windsor Forest (40.31)
61. Lakeside (DeKalb) (39.47)
62. New Manchester (38.37)
63. Mount Zion (Jonesboro) (37.55)
64. Paulding County (36.48)
65. Forsyth Central (36)
66. North Atlanta (34.82)
67. Groves (34.37)
68. Osborne (33.01)
69. Lithia Springs (32.83)
70. Winder-Barrow (31.64)
71. Bradwell Institute (29.07)
72. Forest Park (26.3)
73. Cambridge (15.01)
74. Clarkston (13.67)
75. North Springs (2.32)

Class AAAA
1. Sandy Creek (88.93)
2. Burke County (81.03)
3. Marist (77.98)
4. Carrollton (77.55)
5. Griffin (74.34)
6. Cairo (72.29)
7. Baldwin (69.64)
8. Statesboro (69.6)
9. Stockbridge (69.45)
10. Westside (Macon) (69.07)
11. Jonesboro (66.46)
12. Ridgeland (65.26)
13. Monroe (62.73)
14. LaGrange (62.05)
15. Mary Persons (61.5)
16. Dutchtown (60.72)
17. Washington (60.65)
18. Monroe Area (59.99)
19. Carver (Atlanta) (59.59)
20. Perry (59.36)
21. Americus-Sumter (59.1)
22. Riverdale (58.12)
23. Columbia (57.17)
24. Westover (57.04)
25. Stephens County (56.96)
26. Chamblee (56.95)
27. Shaw (56.09)
28. Northwest Whitfield (55.93)
29. Locust Grove (55.85)
30. Eastside (55.7)
31. Grady (55.39)
32. Cass (55.24)
33. Banneker (54.8)
34. Dalton (54.48)
35. Wayne County (54.17)
36. Veterans (53.85)
37. Troup (53.09)
38. Upson-Lee (51.81)
39. Worth County (51.71)
40. North Clayton (49.93)
41. West Laurens (49.51)
42. Chestatee (49.48)
43. Crisp County (48.63)
44. Cedartown (46.95)
45. Gilmer (46.02)
46. Woodland (Stockbridge) (45.85)
47. Liberty County (45.44)
48. Spalding (44.53)
49. Redan (44.28)
50. South Effingham (44.12)
51. Fayette County (43.62)
52. South Atlanta (43.2)
53. Stone Mountain (43.13)
54. Richmond Academy (42.53)
55. Pickens (41.99)
56. Rutland (41.98)
57. Albany (41.68)
58. Lithonia (41.12)
59. Lanier (39.88)
60. River Ridge (38.39)
61. Alexander (35.63)
62. Dougherty (34.64)
63. Eagle’s Landing (33.34)
64. Butler (32.94)
65. Madison County (29.4)
66. Johnson (Gainesville) (28.55)
67. Southeast Whitfield (28.04)
68. Glenn Hills (26.81)
69. Lumpkin County (26.79)
70. Heritage (Catoosa) (26.01)
71. LaFayette (25.4)
72. Therrell (21.33)
73. Walnut Grove (21.05)
74. Columbus (20.19)
75. Cross Creek (20.07)
76. Howard (19.41)
77. Hephzibah (17.12)

Class AAA
1. Buford (85.78)
2. Peach County (83.71)
3. Thomson (78.45)
4. Carver (Columbus) (76.64)
5. Washington County (76.5)
6. St. Pius X (75.91)
7. Elbert County (63.63)
8. Woodward Academy (63.57)
9. North Oconee (63.52)
10. Blessed Trinity (63.12)
11. Cartersville (60.8)
12. Callaway (59.29)
13. Jefferson County (58.69)
14. Cedar Grove (57.36)
15. Appling County (55.67)
16. North Hall (55.28)
17. Pierce County (54.53)
18. Swainsboro (52.32)
19. Jackson (52.28)
20. Gordon Central (51.57)
21. White County (50.92)
22. Adairsville (48.9)
23. Morgan County (48.75)
24. Hart County (48.52)
25. Chapel Hill (46.88)
26. Ringgold (46.64)
27. Henry County (45.49)
28. Pike County (44.31)
29. Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe (44.25)
30. Dodge County (43.78)
31. Tattnall County (43.18)
32. Central (Carrollton) (42.75)
33. Decatur (41.53)
34. Dawson County (41.51)
35. Rockmart (40.69)
36. Jackson County (38.75)
37. Central (Macon) (38.19)
38. North Murray (37.66)
39. Beach (36.78)
40. Oconee County (35.74)
41. McNair (35.35)
42. Franklin County (34.89)
43. Jackson (Atlanta) (33.81)
44. Haralson County (32.46)
45. B.E.S.T Academy (30.16)
46. Fannin County (28.8)
47. Southwest (28.71)
48. Southeast Bulloch (26.95)
49. Savannah (26.8)
50. Johnson (Savannah) (26.66)
51. East Hall (25.69)
52. West Hall (25.61)
53. Douglass (25.37)
54. Sonoraville (22.83)
55. Coahulla Creek (21.48)
56. Banks County (21.43)
57. Brantley County (18.19)
58. East Jackson (15.99)
59. Towers (12.81)
60. Cross Keys (-25.11)

Class AA
1. Calhoun (87.55)
2. Brooks County (76.01)
3. Fitzgerald (70.85)
4. Cook (68.24)
5. Lovett (66.92)
6. Greater Atlanta Christian (60.74)
7. Westminster (60.24)
8. Thomasville (56.24)
9. Early County (56.15)
10. Lamar County (56.04)
11. Jefferson (55.54)
12. Vidalia (55.21)
13. Heard County (54.34)
14. Washington-Wilkes (52.69)
15. Screven County (52.69)
16. Laney (52.68)
17. Wesleyan (50.9)
18. Bleckley County (49.52)
19. Benedictine (48.63)
20. McIntosh County Academy (48.13)
21. Pepperell (46.4)
22. Northeast (45.99)
23. Bowdon (44.97)
24. East Laurens (42.74)
25. Manchester (41.14)
26. Bremen (39.66)
27. Bacon County (39.08)
28. Toombs County (38.05)
29. Macon County (37.44)
30. Westside (Augusta) (34.96)
31. Putnam County (34.06)
32. Taylor County (32.86)
33. Kendrick (31.43)
34. Dade County (31)
35. Union County (30.1)
36. Coosa (29.71)
37. Dublin (28.1)
38. Berrien (27.34)
39. Greene County (26.79)
40. Chattahoochee County (26.75)
41. Metter (26.71)
42. Armuchee (26.05)
43. Model (25.98)
44. Bryan County (25.43)
45. Long County (25.24)
46. Chattooga (25.15)
47. Monticello (24.36)
48. Oglethorpe County (23.66)
49. Rabun County (22.17)
50. Pelham (21.98)
51. Spencer (21.53)
52. Josey (21.32)
53. Jeff Davis (20.85)
54. Temple (12.84)
55. Harlem (12.83)
56. Riverside Military (8.14)
57. Crawford County (8.03)
58. Hapeville (6.33)
59. Atkinson County (5.19)
60. Jordan (4.03)
61. Murray County (2.18)
62. Social Circle (0.43)

Class A (public)
1. Lincoln County (59.1)
2. Wilcox County (55.62)
3. Emanuel County Institute (52.73)
4. Clinch County (51.4)
5. Dooly County (50.19)
6. Turner County (50.02)
7. Wilkinson County (49.98)
8. Charlton County (49.46)
9. Seminole County (49.2)
10. Irwin County (42.76)
11. Marion County (42.43)
12. Claxton (42.22)
13. Hancock Central (42.09)
14. Greenville (41.38)
15. Mitchell County (40.07)
16. Trion (39.69)
17. Johnson County (39.51)
18. Miller County (39.18)
19. Commerce (38.44)
20. Gordon Lee (34.66)
21. Warren County (32.04)
22. Terrell County (31.61)
23. Treutlen (30.58)
24. Hawkinsville (30.57)
25. Jenkins County (23.65)
26. Randolph-Clay (22.69)
27. Georgia Military College (21.97)
28. Calhoun County (21.73)
29. Telfair County (21.37)
30. Lanier County (20.99)
31. Twiggs County (20.88)
32. Schley County (16.6)
33. Portal (14.68)
34. Central (Talbotton) (11.8)
35. Glascock County (11.27)
36. Wheeler County (9.85)
37. Mount Zion (Carroll) (9.28)
38. Montgomery County (7.01)
39. Rabun Gap (-2.46)
40. Baconton (-3.8)
41. Towns County (-4.16)
42. Stewart County (-12.8)

Class A (private)
1. Eagle’s Landing Christian (69.38)
2. Aquinas (59.13)
3. George Walton Academy (54.99)
4. Savannah Christian (54.69)
5. Prince Avenue Christian (52.03)
6. Darlington (51.71)
7. Athens Academy (51.21)
8. Calvary Day (48.42)
9. Holy Innocents’ (47.28)
10. First Presbyterian (45.36)
11. Landmark Christian (44.31)
12. Brookstone (42.61)
13. Our Lady of Mercy (38.29)
14. Athens Christian (32.31)
15. Mount Paran Christian (31.8)
16. Walker (29.98)
17. King’s Ridge (29.42)
18. Pace Academy (27.8)
19. Whitefield Academy (24.35)
20. Christian Heritage (23.19)
21. Mount Pisgah Christian (22.08)
22. Savannah Country Day (21.92)
23. Pinecrest Academy (18.99)
24. Pacelli (18.43)
25. Strong Rock Christian (13.72)
26. Lakeview Academy (12.61)
27. Fellowship Christian (3.25)
28. Mount Vernon (0.02)
29. Southwest Atlanta Christian (-2.24)
30. St. Francis (-5.38)
31. Hebron Christian Academy (-7.03)
32. Providence Christian (-9.61)
33. North Cobb Christian (-19.28)

The ratings are compiled by Loren Maxwell, who has been involved with sports ratings since 1986. Maxwell is an avid sports historian and the founder of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Currently, he is an active duty officer in the Air Force as an instructor at the Air Force Institute of Technology.

34 comments Add your comment

sportsnut

October 9th, 2012
10:38 pm

November is coming !

not understanding this thing

October 9th, 2012
10:52 pm

I’m not the brightest computer person, but I don’t understand a couple of things about this at all. For example, how is Colquitt ranked so high? I understand it takes this year and previous years into account but still…Colquitt went 11-3 last season, is 4-2 this season, has scored 26 and given up 13 per game. MLK went 12-1 last year, is 6-0 this year, has scored 28 and give up 5 per game. Lassiter was 11-3 last season (also lost in the semis), is 6-0 this year, has scored 36 and given up 12 per game. How are they both behind Colquitt? I know it is rankings and they mean squat in the grand scheme of high school football, but what gives?

not understanding this thing

October 9th, 2012
11:14 pm

not to mention the obvious…How are they ahead of Grayson? Or Calhoun? or Buford? even Walton might be a bit of a stretch.

Camden74

October 9th, 2012
11:36 pm

Looking forward to December……..Go Camden County Wildcats! :-D

WarEagle

October 10th, 2012
12:07 am

@Todd — do the Maxwell Ratings skew in favor of larger classifications? That is, do wins over 6A teams get more points than wins over 2A teams?

Carver Panther 1

October 10th, 2012
7:31 am

Thank you for acknowledging Carver Atlanta enough to crack the top 20. I believe that as the season continues to progress we will continue to ascend.

Loren Maxwell

October 10th, 2012
8:41 am

@not understanding this thing: “how is Colquitt ranked so high?”

Colquitt County’s two losses are by a total of five points and came to North Gwinnett, whose only loss is to undefeated Norcross, and to Lowndes. Additionally, three of their wins were over teams ranked in the top 35 in the state, Thomas County Central, Lovejoy, and Carver (Columbus), which for all three are the only losses so far this year. In fact, I show Colquitt County’s schedule as easily being the toughest in the state and not letting up for the rest of the year.

@WarEagle: “do wins over 6A teams get more points than wins over 2A teams?”

No. Classification is not considered in the ratings except for determining preseason ratings for teams that have no established history. In that case only, the classification is used to judge where a new team might fall in the ratings.

WarEagle

October 10th, 2012
9:40 am

@Loren — thanks. It is curious, though, that the point totals for 6A teams seem to have a far greater median. For example, there are 27 6A teams with 70 or more total points; the next highest class with teams having 70 or more points is 5A, with 14 teams. No other class has more than 6 such teams. Why is that if the only thing that matters is record of opponents?

JLS

October 10th, 2012
9:54 am

How can Buford be ranked higher than Gainesville and West Forsyth in ALL classifications? Gainesville beat Buford and West Forsyth beat Gainesville.?????

Loren Maxwell

October 10th, 2012
10:26 am

@WarEagle

The classifications are based on school size, so to me it makes sense that the larger schools can field more competitive teams.

Loren Maxwell

October 10th, 2012
10:32 am

@JLS: “How can Buford be ranked higher than Gainesville and West Forsyth in ALL classifications?”

It is always difficult to balance past performance with current performance when they conflict. However, as the season progresses, the weight of the current season’s performance will continue to grow and the past season’s weight will continue to diminish. At this point, the system still believes Gainesville’s defeat of Buford to be an upset.

not understanding this thing

October 10th, 2012
10:46 am

Whatever you say, but still. Grayson has one loss (against 1 loss Parkview, whose only loss was to Norcross…sound familiar?) and they went undefeated last year by beating COLQUITT. Lassiter is still 6-0 with No losses, and has three wins over teams ranked in the top 40 in the state. MLK has lost 1 game in two years. But if your computer likes Colquitt so much…

blu eagle

October 10th, 2012
11:29 am

I love this rating system, NSWR is # 1 all the way. Does it mean NSWR will could beat anyone in state based on this rating system? I would like to think so, at least based on any given friday night anyway.

WarEagle

October 10th, 2012
12:08 pm

@Loren — “The classifications are based on school size, so to me it makes sense that the larger schools can field more competitive teams.”

Yes, but not sure why that explains 6A schools having so many more high-point teams than other classes, because the 6A teams largely play each other. For example, Brookwood, with a record of 2-3, is No. 14 in 6A. In the rest of the classes, there are only 12 teams that have more points than Brookwood, including many 1 loss teams. Maybe it will equalize over the course of the season, but right now it sure seems skewed for some reason towards the 6A teams.

Loren Maxwell

October 10th, 2012
12:20 pm

@blu eagle: “Does it mean NSWR will could beat anyone in state based on this rating system?”

You can compare the ratings of two teams to find the differences in their strengths. In this particular set of ratings, NSWR is 0.45 points higher than Camden County, so yes, NSWR would be expected to beat Camden County by about a half point on a neutral field. That also translates into being expected to win that particular match up about 51.1% of the time.

What’s not shown here is the home advantage for each team. NSWR has a home advantage of 1.26 and Camden County has a home advantage of 1.16. Simply add the home advantage to the home team to adjust for that scenario.

This is not necessarily a perfect correlation to a predicted margin of victory, especially when comparing teams that have a large disparity in their ratings since most teams will not continue to score at the maximum rate possible once they have a comfortable lead. The predicted margins of victory published each week account for this.

Loren Maxwell

October 10th, 2012
12:30 pm

@WarEagle: “it sure seems skewed for some reason towards the 6A teams.”

I agree the ratings are skewed toward 6A, but for the reason that larger schools can field stronger teams, not because the system takes their classification into account.

Using Brookwood as the example, teams in 6A have at least 2000 students, so if they stayed the same size in terms of enrollment but could drop down into 5A or 4A, they most likely would have a better record.

WarEagle

October 10th, 2012
1:40 pm

@Loren — Your point that 6A schools are larger and thus field stronger teams would explain rationally why we might subjectively rank a 2-3 Brookwood team higher than a 4-1 3A team. It does not seem to explain, however, why a 2-3 Brookwood team has more points in your model than a 4-1 3A team when the model is based solely on wins and losses and when, as you stated, a 6A win is not given greater points than a 5A win, all else being equal.

BROOKS COUNTY 2005

October 10th, 2012
1:50 pm

I SEE ALOT OF ONE AN TWO LOST TEAM THAT ARE OVER RATED AN 6A GET ALL THE RAITING WHY THESE 2A SCHOOL BEAT SOME 6 A TEAMS BROOKS COUNTY IS ONE OF THEM TEAM TO BEAT THE WINNEST HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL TEAM IN THE NATION

WarEagle

October 10th, 2012
1:58 pm

Great example!: Brooks County (2A) is 6-0 and beat Valdosta (6A), which is 2-3. Yet, Valdosta has more points this year in the Maxwell Rankings than Brooks County.

Loren Maxwell

October 10th, 2012
2:47 pm

@WarEagle: “the model is based solely on wins and losses”

The model is not based off of wins and losses. Rather, it uses the scores and sites of the games to determine the relative strength between teams. Although Brookwood is 3-2, the schedule they’ve played is much more competitive (4th toughest in the state) than any faced by any team in a lower classification. This warrants a higher rating.

You might be thinking of a system similar to what is used in Ohio. They use what’s called the “Harbin Ratings” to determine their playoff seeding where points are award by victories. The classification of the opponents is considered in that system.

@BROOKS COUNTY 2005:

Brooks County’s victory over Valdosta is no doubt significant for that program, but Valdosta is not near the same team they have been in the past. Their two in-state victories are from 1-4 Crisp County in Class AAAA and over 1-4 Newton. Additionally, Camden County just handed Valdosta a 43-6 loss. Brooks County’s win won’t be enough to propel them above many AAAAAA teams.

However, Fitzgerald and Cook are both good upcoming games for Brooks County to demonstrate they should have a higher rating. If they have significant victories in both, you’ll see it reflected.

WarEagle

October 10th, 2012
3:37 pm

@Loren — Now I’m confused — if the model is not based solely on wins and losses, then how is it determined that one schedule is stronger than another? Surely it is not based on points for/against, because that would ignore teams that empty the bench when a route is on. Is it just a subjective assumption (or “bias”) that 6A teams are better than 5A teams, etc. In other words, how do you know that the schedule Valdosta has played is tougher than the schedule Brooks has played. Brooks County might not be propelled above “many” 6A teams, but how about above the 6A team it actually beat on the field!

I suspect part of the problem (in my view) is that your ratings continue to include data from the prior year at this point in the season, which seems suspect to me given the annual turnover and changes in high school football teams. Why not just ditch last year’s data entirely by the time you get to the 5th week of the new season?

WarEagle

October 10th, 2012
3:40 pm

@Loren — BTW, thanks for commenting on your ratings and thanks for all you do for Georgia high school football fans. While your ratings may not be perfect (an unfair standard, no doubt!), it is nice to have them to debate and the historians’ association’s site is also terrific.

Michael

October 10th, 2012
4:00 pm

I am very perplexed to the rankings. M.L. King has not lost a regular season game since Oct of 2010(Eighteen and counting) and have had the best offense in the state for the past two years, but they cannot crack the top ten in the rankings. This is a straight bogus poll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Loren Maxwell

October 10th, 2012
5:13 pm

@WarEagle: “if the model is not based solely on wins and losses, then how is it determined that one schedule is stronger than another? Surely it is not based on points for/against, because that would ignore teams that empty the bench when a route is on.”

Actually, basing a system off of solely wins and losses is much worse at determining the strength of schedule than one that takes into account the score of the game. The score is directly reflective of the difference between teams. However, the system does use a diminishing returns principle to account for strong teams overpowering weak ones. In other words, a 70-0 victory is always better than a 69-0 victory over the same team (even though only marginally), but a 1 point victory over a strong team can be better than a 70 point victory over a weak team.

“your ratings continue to include data from the prior year”

Yes, past ratings are factored into the system, but the impact diminishes to the point of being negligible as the current season progresses. By the end of the season, past ratings make less than 1/100th of a point difference in a team’s rating.

“thanks for commenting on your ratings and thanks for all you do for Georgia high school football fans”

Thanks for the support!

“While your ratings may not be perfect (an unfair standard, no doubt!)”

Yes . . . an unfair standard, indeed . . . :-)

“the historians’ association’s site is also terrific”

I founded the GHSFHA, but admittedly haven’t been active for several years. The true credit goes to several folks that actively participate and maintain the site, not the least of which is AJC’s very own Todd Holcomb, who has researched and input the vast majority of the scores from 1948 forward. I would also recognize Steve Slay for running down all the scores each week and Bobby Hodges who maintains the site (for free!). There are also a host of active researchers we can thank for all the data available there.

Pete

October 10th, 2012
7:05 pm

Why does everyone, every week, keep wondering about the absurdity of this poll? It’ a complete joke.

Todd Holcomb

October 11th, 2012
4:04 pm

Loren can explain better than I can, but some seem to be confused about how ‘points’ are generated. Teams aren’t earning points like the GHSA’s Class A model. It’s far more complex than that. It’s a mathematical formula that generates probabilities based on every score. It considers margin of victory, history, etc.

For those who want to ridicule it, I can only say that they cannot imagine how sophisticated and well-done this model is. It’s not some silly points system that took a couple of hours to contrive. There’s a science to doing sports rankings based on scores alone. Loren could teach a college course on it. If you don’t like computer rankings and their limitations, that’s understandable. But Loren’s model and his understanding of computer rankings are as good as anybody’s in the country. It would win a ribbon at the county fair. :)

Firstdowncreek!!!!

October 11th, 2012
4:10 pm

@Loren…Any time Sandy Creek is in your top ten I’d say the formula is just fine :-)
We are 57-3 since 2008 and destroyed 6a and 21st ranked Newnan giving them their only loss. My point being that school size in Ga doesn’t always mean much when you have great programs in the lower classifications. Calhoun, Brooks County, Burke County, Peach County, Buford, Sandy Creek etc…etc.. Can play with any team in the state. Keep up the good work!!

Loren Maxwell

October 11th, 2012
6:58 pm

@Todd – Thanks for the kind words. You are correct in that the math behind the system is the same as is used in practically any regression analysis on any number of subjects. I also agree with you, it might not be everyone’s cup of tea and quantitative analysis has its limitations, but if we can appreciate the analysis and its limitations there is some great information found in looking at the data in this manner. I often see fans justifying the strength of their team by looking at win-loss records and comparing point differences against common opponents and even extending that to opponent’s opponent. This system does something similar, only using the same criteria for every single team.

@Firstdowncreek!!!!: “point being that school size in Ga doesn’t always mean much”
Classification is not factored into the ratings except in the special case of a new program. Then it makes sense to consider a new AAAAAA team to be different than a new A team when there is no other information available. Otherwise the only factors are a team’s past performance and its current performance with the past performance diminishing as the season progresses.

bulldognation

October 14th, 2012
4:58 pm

Yeah because having columbia ranked above Chamblee makes perfect sense. That is a perfect example of why all these computer polls are stupid

November is almost here

October 15th, 2012
8:41 am

@ Todd, maybe Lauren needs to start some ’splaining. @bulldognation has a point here folks. Chamblee totally dominated Columbia in every facet of the game. Jumped up 27-0 by half time – coasted to a 34-0 win on Friday. Coulda easily won 50-0 – EASILY. I was there and have no dog in this hunt. Chamblee has put together a terrific team with a first year coach – Allen Johnson. He has these kids hungry for more. If Lauren is teaching the course on this I am willing to take it. Columbia is 2-4. Chamblee is 6-0. There is no way “mathematical formulas” are used because 1+1 ALWAYS equals 2. Using this system 1+1 equals six……I guess it sells, but teach the course – BULLSPIT. November is almost here folks.

Loren Maxwell

October 15th, 2012
10:55 am

@bulldognation and @November is almost here

These ratings are for games through Oct 6 and the Chamblee-Columbia game was Oct 12. Look for the new ratings later this week.

Todd Holcomb

October 15th, 2012
6:56 pm

We publish the new ratings on Wednesdays. Maybe we should move it up to Monday to prevent this kind of confusion.

Yes, the Maxwell Ratings had Chamblee and Columbia rated about even prior to Friday’s game. Chamblee dominated. The new ratings will reflect that.

Loren and I have quibbled over the possibility that Maxwell Ratings holds on too long to past seasons as a guide. The Ratings were skeptical of Chamblee because of a relatively weak schedule and a subpar record in 2011. This is an example where the computer looks slow to adjust, but there will be just as many examples where skepticism based on history pays off.

Todd Holcomb

October 15th, 2012
6:57 pm

1Bighammer

October 16th, 2012
11:40 am

Isn’t it great that in GA…these polls are useless. We have a Playoff system and it takes care of who’s the best. Just win Baby!