Calhoun, Northside most likely to go undefeated

There is a cliché that applies to certain baseball pitchers. If you don’t get them early, you won’t get them. That applies to these 20 teams we’re about to highlight.

The first 10 are the most likely teams in Georgia to finish 10-0. The next 10 are those that have lost a game, but are most unlikely to lose again.

These teams qualify because they have less-than-impressive schedules down the stretch, or they’re just so good that it would take a great schedule to stand in their way. Or both.

We list them in order of their chances to win out. The numbers to the right of their remaining opponents represent the power rating difference between the two teams in the computer Maxwell Ratings. Those numbers could be called projected margins of victory, except that they do not take into consideration home-field advantage, or the fact that a winning team may hold down the score once the outcome is no longer in doubt.

Unbeaten, untied, unstoppable

Don’t be shocked if Norcross is the No. 1-ranked team in Class AAAAAA entering the playoffs. No. 1 Camden County and No. 2 Lassiter are more likely to lose before then. Calhoun, the most likely 10-0 team in Georgia, has won 42 consecutive regular-season games, with no end in sight.

1. Calhoun (5-0)
Pepperell -40
Murray County -86
at Armuchee -62
Model -61
at Chattooga -62

2. Northside, W. Robins (4-0)
at Houston County -43
Grovetown -51
at Jones County -36
Greenbrier -50
Warner Robins -17
Evans -42

3. Norcross (5-0)
Habersham Central -48
at Collins Hill -19
Mountain View -40
at Peachtree Ridge -18
Meadowcreek -70

4. Vidalia (5-0)
at Atkinson County -50
Bryan County -40
at Bacon County -17
Toombs County -16
at Jeff Davis -34

5. Sandy Creek (4-0)
at Troup -36
Shaw -34
at Alexander -52
at LaGrange -27
Carrollton -11
Columbus -69

6. Peach County (4-0)
at Henry County -37
at Jackson -25
Central, Macon -46
at Pike County -43
Carver, Columbus -7
Southwest, Macon -52

7. Washington-Wilkes (5-0)
at Jefferson -6
Greene County -31
at Rabun County -37
at Oglethorpe County -32
at Social Circle -56

8. Heard County (4-0)
at Chattahoochee County -27
Manchester -14
at Jordan -51
Temple -42
Spencer -33
at Bowdon -10

9. East Paulding (5-0)
at Hiram -27
Rome -16
at South Paulding -23
at Lithia Springs -47
Allatoona -8

10, Prince Ave. Christian (5-0)
Athens Academy -14
Commerce -13
Hebron Christian Academy -66
at Pinecrest Academy -40
at George Walton Academy -4


The next 10:
West Forsyth, Cartersville, Thomson, Tucker, Brooks County, Lowndes, Lassiter, Camden County, Allatoona, Washington County. (Note: The Maxwell Ratings say that Camden County is slightly better than Lowndes, but Lowndes has the better chance of going 10-0. Why? Camden still must play Colquitt County, which Maxwell rates as a much tougher opponent than Valdosta.)

The least likely current unbeaten teams to finish 10-0: Pacelli, South Cobb, Lambert, Walker, Morgan County, Athens Academy, Riverwood, Lee County, Chamblee, Northeast.

Lost at least once, won’t lose again

Buford moved up in classification but ended up in a weaker overall region. Other than Calhoun, Buford is the least likely team to lose another regular-season game. By the way, we aren’t picking on Lakeview Academy. Lakeview has played some pretty good teams on its non-region schedule, but the second half brings four of the seven lowest-rated teams in the state. That’s hard to do.

1. Buford (3-1)
West Hall -61
at White County -35
Dawson County -47
Fannin County -58
at East Hall -61
North Hall -32

2. ELCA (4-1)
Mount Vernon -69
at Our Lady of Mercy -21
Strong Rock -54
at Pace Academy -42
Landmark Christian -29

3. Lovejoy (4-1)
Rockdale County -44
at Morrow -54
at Luella -34
Newton -28
Alcovy -27

4. Darlington (3-2)
Christian Heritage -30
Gordon Lee -19
at Mount Zion -53
SW Atlanta Christian -49
*King’s Ridge -19

5. Lakeview Academy (2-2)
at Cross Keys -37
at St. Francis -19
North Cobb Christian -31
Towns County -16

6. Burke County (4-1)
Wayne County -27
at Richmond Academy -39
Glenn Hills -54
at Butler -50
*Statesboro -13

7. Marist (3-1)
at Columbia -22
Lithonia -41
at Redan -33
Stone Mountain -30
at Chamblee -20
*Washington -14

8. Ware County (3-1)
at Glynn Academy -15
Jenkins -27
at Richmond Hill -18
Groves -39
at Bradwell Institute -45
Effingham County -30

9. Kell (4-1)
at Riverwood -22
Osborne -43
at Sprayberry -26
Pope -13
*Creekview -18

10. Thomas County Central (4-1)
Bainbridge -11
Northside, Columbus -42
at Lee County -20
at Hardaway -38
Harris County -35

*Region championship game.

Story produced by Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

12 comments Add your comment

Columbia Blue Blood

October 5th, 2012
7:18 am

whoooo whooo go Camden! Go out there and play Coffee tough!

Loren Maxwell

October 5th, 2012
8:11 am

For those who like a little more numbers, below are the 44 teams who are undefeated and their chances of finishing the regular season undefeated. This shows their schedule strength to date as well as their schedule strength in total for the remainder of the regular season, the teams’ projected W-L-T record, and how many times they would go undefeated if the remainder of the regular season were to be played 1,000 times and the odds of them going undefeated.

Teams that are scheduled to face a region play-in opponent (Calvary Day, Carver (Atlanta), Chamblee, Riverwood, Walker, and Washington) are assumed to play an equal opponent in that game.

Of interest is that 4-0 Pacelli is about to hit a difficult road ahead and is projected to finish 5-5.

PS Not sure whow this will post, but spaces should be between columns.

Overall Rank Team Class Class Rank W L T Rating SchStrTD StrStrTot ProjW ProjL ProjT 10-0 out of 1,000 seasons Odds to go 10-0
8 Calhoun AA 1 5 0 0 87.77 53.21 38.14 9.98 0.02 0.00 979.11 0.02
1 Northside (Warner Robins) AAAAA 1 4 0 0 94.60 65.01 58.71 9.79 0.21 0.00 799.54 0.25
3 Norcross AAAAAA 2 5 0 0 92.79 78.88 68.71 9.70 0.30 0.00 726.92 0.38
7 Sandy Creek AAAA 1 4 0 0 89.20 61.69 57.02 9.63 0.37 0.00 666.67 0.50
142 Vidalia AA 11 5 0 0 55.59 40.64 33.99 9.59 0.41 0.00 642.95 0.56
14 Peach County AAA 2 4 0 0 83.69 62.02 54.00 9.56 0.44 0.00 609.79 0.64
121 Washington-Wilkes AA 8 5 0 0 58.10 25.98 26.56 9.46 0.54 0.00 514.18 0.94
149 Heard County AA 13 4 0 0 54.35 36.75 30.00 9.40 0.60 0.00 510.26 0.96
23 East Paulding AAAAA 7 5 0 0 80.43 45.21 51.40 9.39 0.61 0.00 510.11 0.96
111 Appling County AAA 12 4 0 1 58.96 42.68 39.68 8.30 0.70 1.00 445.81 1.24
109 Prince Avenue Christian A-Pri 2 5 0 0 59.40 17.79 26.20 9.29 0.71 0.00 426.28 1.35
93 Cartersville AAA 10 5 0 0 61.83 42.74 43.50 9.19 0.81 0.00 404.18 1.47
12 West Forsyth AAAAAA 7 5 0 0 84.65 68.06 66.87 9.19 0.81 0.00 392.29 1.55
28 Thomson AAA 3 5 0 0 78.64 67.94 63.77 9.17 0.83 0.00 371.59 1.69
5 Tucker AAAAA 2 5 0 0 89.83 43.69 55.39 9.14 0.86 0.00 360.73 1.77
42 Brooks County AA 2 5 0 0 75.11 56.76 55.42 9.05 0.95 0.00 316.41 2.16
13 Lassiter AAAAAA 8 5 0 0 84.02 62.85 66.16 9.01 0.99 0.00 311.89 2.21
4 Lowndes AAAAAA 3 5 0 0 92.10 52.13 65.11 9.03 0.97 0.00 300.71 2.33
163 Lamar County AA 14 3 0 1 52.84 38.09 37.29 7.78 1.22 1.00 227.28 3.40
2 Camden County AAAAAA 1 5 0 0 92.95 53.42 67.51 8.82 1.18 0.00 220.64 3.53
41 Washington County AAA 6 5 0 0 75.20 58.97 60.15 8.78 1.22 0.00 206.81 3.84
100 Monroe Area AAAA 18 5 0 0 60.55 37.53 41.10 8.75 1.25 0.00 196.66 4.08
120 Aquinas A-Pri 3 4 0 0 58.12 34.57 40.18 8.65 1.35 0.00 186.87 4.35
24 North Cobb AAAAAA 12 4 0 0 80.03 61.79 64.47 8.63 1.37 0.00 183.83 4.44
16 Stephenson AAAAA 4 4 0 1 83.34 54.08 59.79 7.75 1.25 1.00 169.94 4.88
50 Allatoona AAAAA 12 5 0 0 72.16 47.82 51.36 8.81 1.19 0.00 163.55 5.11
26 Johns Creek AAAAAA 14 5 0 0 78.90 63.42 64.59 8.65 1.35 0.00 154.02 5.49
17 M.L. King AAAAA 5 5 0 0 82.85 56.39 57.90 8.68 1.32 0.00 127.49 6.84
88 Washington AAAA 16 4 0 0 62.63 48.68 45.81 8.77 1.23 0.00 110.76 8.03
54 Cook AA 3 4 0 0 71.28 48.16 51.33 8.43 1.57 0.00 109.93 8.10
196 Northeast AA 19 4 0 0 49.28 30.84 33.97 8.27 1.73 0.00 90.08 10.10
184 Gordon Central AAA 22 5 0 0 50.82 31.49 34.87 8.41 1.59 0.00 78.30 11.77
138 Richmond Hill AAAAA 34 4 0 0 56.24 35.84 41.33 8.27 1.73 0.00 60.34 15.57
211 Calvary Day A-Pri 8 4 0 0 46.97 26.77 26.26 8.63 1.37 0.00 54.85 17.23
136 Carver (Atlanta) AAAA 29 4 0 0 56.69 44.78 44.27 8.29 1.71 0.00 48.82 19.48
168 Morgan County AAA 20 4 0 0 52.53 34.23 39.55 7.77 2.23 0.00 27.89 34.86
223 Athens Academy A-Pri 9 4 0 0 45.20 23.26 28.77 7.88 2.12 0.00 24.24 40.25
327 Walker A-Pri 16 4 0 0 26.84 -0.22 12.32 7.73 2.27 0.00 20.88 46.90
89 Lee County AAAAA 20 5 0 0 62.57 42.13 48.69 7.92 2.08 0.00 19.24 50.97
134 Chamblee AAAA 28 4 0 0 56.83 45.57 46.49 7.95 2.05 0.00 14.30 68.92
61 Lambert AAAAAA 31 5 0 0 69.54 55.33 63.60 7.26 2.74 0.00 10.16 97.43
152 Riverwood AAAAA 35 5 0 0 54.13 34.69 40.80 7.88 2.12 0.00 8.41 117.97
78 South Cobb AAAAAA 36 4 0 0 64.26 51.17 62.36 6.28 3.72 0.00 1.52 656.19
377 Pacelli A-Pri 24 4 0 0 18.34 0.98 25.06 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 331525.49

Loren Maxwell

October 5th, 2012
8:13 am

With fewer columns, so maybe a little easier to read:

Team Rating StrStrTot 10-0 out of 1,000 seasons Odds to go 10-0
Calhoun 87.77 38.14 979.11 0.02
Northside (Warner Robins) 94.60 58.71 799.54 0.25
Norcross 92.79 68.71 726.92 0.38
Sandy Creek 89.20 57.02 666.67 0.50
Vidalia 55.59 33.99 642.95 0.56
Peach County 83.69 54.00 609.79 0.64
Washington-Wilkes 58.10 26.56 514.18 0.94
Heard County 54.35 30.00 510.26 0.96
East Paulding 80.43 51.40 510.11 0.96
Appling County 58.96 39.68 445.81 1.24
Prince Avenue Christian 59.40 26.20 426.28 1.35
Cartersville 61.83 43.50 404.18 1.47
West Forsyth 84.65 66.87 392.29 1.55
Thomson 78.64 63.77 371.59 1.69
Tucker 89.83 55.39 360.73 1.77
Brooks County 75.11 55.42 316.41 2.16
Lassiter 84.02 66.16 311.89 2.21
Lowndes 92.10 65.11 300.71 2.33
Lamar County 52.84 37.29 227.28 3.40
Camden County 92.95 67.51 220.64 3.53
Washington County 75.20 60.15 206.81 3.84
Monroe Area 60.55 41.10 196.66 4.08
Aquinas 58.12 40.18 186.87 4.35
North Cobb 80.03 64.47 183.83 4.44
Stephenson 83.34 59.79 169.94 4.88
Allatoona 72.16 51.36 163.55 5.11
Johns Creek 78.90 64.59 154.02 5.49
M.L. King 82.85 57.90 127.49 6.84
Washington 62.63 45.81 110.76 8.03
Cook 71.28 51.33 109.93 8.10
Northeast 49.28 33.97 90.08 10.10
Gordon Central 50.82 34.87 78.30 11.77
Richmond Hill 56.24 41.33 60.34 15.57
Calvary Day 46.97 26.26 54.85 17.23
Carver (Atlanta) 56.69 44.27 48.82 19.48
Morgan County 52.53 39.55 27.89 34.86
Athens Academy 45.20 28.77 24.24 40.25
Walker 26.84 12.32 20.88 46.90
Lee County 62.57 48.69 19.24 50.97
Chamblee 56.83 46.49 14.30 68.92
Lambert 69.54 63.60 10.16 97.43
Riverwood 54.13 40.80 8.41 117.97
South Cobb 64.26 62.36 1.52 656.19
Pacelli 18.34 25.06 0.00 331525.49

Golden Isles Fan

October 5th, 2012
8:24 am

GO COFFEE HIGH TROJANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jefferson

October 5th, 2012
9:51 am

Calhoun has won 88 strait region games.

WarEagle

October 5th, 2012
10:55 am

Great info. Question — are fewer teams undefeated at this time of the season than in prior years?

Todd Holcomb

October 5th, 2012
12:31 pm

”Calhoun has won 88 strait region games.”

I believe it’s 73. But the statement in the article was ”regular-season” games, not region games. Calhoun has won 42 straight regular-season games. The record is 58, btw.

Todd Holcomb

October 5th, 2012
12:36 pm

”Great info. Question — are fewer teams undefeated at this time of the season than in prior years?”

There were 62 unbeaten teams at about this point a year ago, but without studying it further, that might be because fewer games had been played. In others, the average number of games played might be 4.8 now, but 4.6 then. The schedule changed this year.

I would think there would be a bit fewer undefeated teams this year because of the move to six classifications. That means smaller regions, fewer region games, and more opportunity to play really good non-region opponents, which lead to more losses.

Todd Holcomb

October 5th, 2012
12:38 pm

Thanks, Loren. Hopefully people can read that. I relied heavily on the Maxwell Ratings to identify the least-likely to lose. I did make some manual adjustments to account for teams that will play a region championship game.

THE "CANNON RULES"!!

October 5th, 2012
2:41 pm

Assuming neither team “trips up” between now and then…Nov. 9th in “THE BONEYARD” will decide the Region 5 AAAAA title when ALLATOONA visits EAST PAULDING’S RAIDERS for the first time!

TICK…TICK…TICK…BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!
GO RAIDERS!!!

Jefferson

October 5th, 2012
4:14 pm

Todd, the number is 88. When Region 7 was split into subregions A and B, there were 2 crossover games a year where region 7a would play region 7b. These are region games. The outcomes of the crossovers were used in tie breaker/home field situations. To not call them region wins for Calhoun is flat out wrong. 4 teams from each subregion didn’t go to the playoffs, but 4 from region 7 did, so a region subregion crossover game IS a REGION game.

What would be the logic to not count them as region games ?

Jefferson

October 5th, 2012
4:17 pm

No doubt about Bufords regular season record, I was just braggin’ about Calhoun, just sayin’.