Maxwell Ratings: Computer suspects Lassiter, North Cobb overrated; don’t write off Colquitt, Lovett, Cairo

Each week, AJC.com will publish the Maxwell Ratings to give fans a computerized look at how Georgia’s 412 football-playing teams rank in each class and in all classifications.

The Maxwell Ratings are based strictly on scores. As the season progresses, the rankings will rely more and more on this season’s results and less on previous seasons. By the playoffs, the rankings will reflect 2012 results entirely.

This week’s rankings reveal that Maxwell’s methodology looks closely at history and strength of schedule and less at W-L records, at least compared to the human polls.

Five that Maxwell suspects are overrated? Try Lovett, North Cobb, Washington, Vidalia and Calvary Day. Not enough history or schedule strength to justify their high rankings in the AJC or AP polls, says Maxwell. Underrrated teams: Maxwell sees beware of those traditional powers teams with multiple losses to good teams – Cairo, Baldwin, Lovett, to name three.

All classification

1. Northside (Warner Robins) (94.6)
2. Camden County (92.95)
3. Norcross (92.79)
4. Lowndes (92.1)
5. Tucker (89.83)
6. North Gwinnett (89.32)
7. Sandy Creek (89.2)
8. Calhoun (87.77)
9. Colquitt County (87.71)
10. Grayson (87.29)
11. Buford (86.04)
12. West Forsyth (84.65)
13. Lassiter (84.02)
14. Peach County (83.69)
15. Gainesville (83.68)
16. Stephenson (83.34)
17. M.L. King (82.85)
18. Thomas County Central (82.57)
19. Parkview (81.77)
20. Walton (81.47)
21. Lovejoy (81.38)
22. Burke County (81.05)
23. East Paulding (80.43)
24. North Cobb (80.03)
25. South Gwinnett (79.03)

CLASS AAAAAA

1. Camden County (92.95)
2. Norcross (92.79)
3. Lowndes (92.1)
4. North Gwinnett (89.32)
5. Colquitt County (87.71)
6. Grayson (87.29)
7. West Forsyth (84.65)
8. Lassiter (84.02)
9. Parkview (81.77)
10. Walton (81.47)
11. Lovejoy (81.38)
12. North Cobb (80.03)
13. South Gwinnett (79.03)
14. Johns Creek (78.9)
15. Brookwood (78.89)
16. Mill Creek (78.05)
17. Coffee (77.38)
18. McEachern (77.24)
19. Valdosta (75.79)
20. Newnan (75.35)
21. Peachtree Ridge (74.05)
22. Marietta (73.37)
23. Archer (73.25)
24. Collins Hill (73.07)
25. Milton (72.11)
26. Hillgrove (71.64)
27. Chattahoochee (70.04)
28. Central Gwinnett (69.8)
29. Etowah (69.74)
30. Alpharetta (69.65)
31. Lambert (69.54)
32. Tri-Cities (66.46)
33. East Coweta (66.22)
34. Dacula (65.57)
35. Brunswick (64.97)
36. South Cobb (64.26)
37. Tift County (63.62)
38. Wheeler (62.85)
39. Harrison (61.99)
40. Woodstock (61)
41. Hughes (60.98)
42. Roswell (59.34)
43. Duluth (58.78)
44. Shiloh (55.34)
45. Alcovy (54.24)
46. Newton (53.97)
47. North Forsyth (53.35)
48. Westlake (52.8)
49. Mountain View (52.66)
50. Pebblebrook (52.5)
51. Centennial (52.05)
52. South Forsyth (51.48)
53. Cherokee (50.37)
54. Kennesaw Mountain (50.25)
55. Douglas County (49.79)
56. Campbell (48.88)
57. Luella (47.3)
58. Berkmar (44.61)
59. Habersham Central (44.02)
60. Druid Hills (37.81)
61. Rockdale County (37.33)
62. Morrow (27.75)
63. Meadowcreek (22.9)

CLASS AAAAA

1. Northside (Warner Robins) (94.6)
2. Tucker (89.83)
3. Gainesville (83.68)
4. Stephenson (83.34)
5. M.L. King (82.85)
6. Thomas County Central (82.57)
7. East Paulding (80.43)
8. Warner Robins (77.82)
9. Kell (76.99)
10. Flowery Branch (76.19)
11. Ware County (74.79)
12. Allatoona (72.16)
13. Bainbridge (71.52)
14. Clarke Central (70)
15. Southwest DeKalb (69.23)
16. Whitewater (69.2)
17. Heritage (Conyers) (66.98)
18. Rome (64.2)
19. Pope (63.76)
20. Lee County (62.57)
21. Union Grove (62.38)
22. Drew (61.67)
23. Cedar Shoals (60.26)
24. Mays (60.26)
25. North Paulding (59.85)
26. Northgate (59.81)
27. Glynn Academy (59.43)
28. Jones County (58.73)
29. Creekview (58.63)
30. Lakeside (Evans) (58.33)
31. Starr’s Mill (58.18)
32. Creekside (57.8)
33. South Paulding (57.27)
34. Richmond Hill (56.24)
35. Riverwood (54.13)
36. Hiram (53.49)
37. Apalachee (53.35)
38. Evans (52.88)
39. Miller Grove (51.59)
40. Houston County (51.56)
41. Sequoyah (51.14)
42. Loganville (51.13)
43. Sprayberry (50.67)
44. Villa Rica (49.53)
45. Salem (49.21)
46. Jenkins (47.96)
47. Harris County (47.92)
48. McIntosh (46.94)
49. Hardaway (44.84)
50. Greenbrier (44.3)
51. Effingham County (44.21)
52. Windsor Forest (43.98)
53. Grovetown (43.71)
54. Arabia Mountain (43.68)
55. Woodland (Cartersville) (43.5)
56. Ola (41.91)
57. Mount Zion (Jonesboro) (41.79)
58. Mundy’s Mill (41.26)
59. Northview (41.09)
60. Dunwoody (41.01)
61. Northside (Columbus) (40.96)
62. Lakeside (DeKalb) (39.72)
63. New Manchester (37.67)
64. Paulding County (36.7)
65. North Atlanta (35.92)
66. Forsyth Central (35.77)
67. Groves (35.25)
68. Lithia Springs (33.1)
69. Osborne (33.07)
70. Winder-Barrow (30.09)
71. Bradwell Institute (29.5)
72. Forest Park (26.59)
73. Cambridge (17.37)
74. Clarkston (14.76)
75. North Springs (2.99)

CLASS AAAA
1. Sandy Creek (89.2)
2. Burke County (81.05)
3. Marist (78.24)
4. Carrollton (78.07)
5. Griffin (73.86)
6. Cairo (72.36)
7. Baldwin (69.37)
8. Stockbridge (69.2)
9. Statesboro (68.87)
10. Westside (Macon) (67.07)
11. Jonesboro (65.8)
12. Dutchtown (64.56)
13. Mary Persons (64.34)
14. Monroe (62.93)
15. Ridgeland (62.9)
16. Washington (62.63)
17. LaGrange (62.21)
18. Monroe Area (60.55)
19. Cass (59.75)
20. Riverdale (59.66)
21. Perry (58.84)
22. Americus-Sumter (58.6)
23. Banneker (57.93)
24. Stephens County (57.73)
25. Dalton (57.35)
26. Westover (57.19)
27. Eastside (56.95)
28. Chamblee (56.83)
29. Carver (Atlanta) (56.69)
30. Columbia (56.36)
31. Northwest Whitfield (55.66)
32. Grady (55.49)
33. Shaw (55.34)
34. Wayne County (54.76)
35. Troup (53.48)
36. Veterans (53.21)
37. Locust Grove (52.95)
38. Worth County (52.3)
39. West Laurens (52.28)
40. Cedartown (51.91)
41. North Clayton (50.5)
42. Chestatee (50.35)
43. Upson-Lee (48.97)
44. Stone Mountain (48.81)
45. Crisp County (47.89)
46. Gilmer (46.41)
47. Liberty County (46.13)
48. Woodland (Stockbridge) (45.95)
49. Spalding (45.79)
50. Redan (45.39)
51. Fayette County (44.66)
52. South Effingham (43.74)
53. Richmond Academy (42.86)
54. Rutland (42.57)
55. Albany (41.43)
56. South Atlanta (41.39)
57. Lanier (41.13)
58. Alexander (37.5)
59. Lithonia (37.33)
60. Dougherty (34.7)
61. Pickens (32.36)
62. Eagle’s Landing (32.14)
63. River Ridge (31.72)
64. Butler (31.47)
65. Madison County (30.59)
66. Johnson (Gainesville) (28.57)
67. Glenn Hills (27.59)
68. Lumpkin County (26.82)
69. LaFayette (26.61)
70. Southeast Whitfield (26.53)
71. Heritage (Catoosa) (23.64)
72. Therrell (22.42)
73. Walnut Grove (21.38)
74. Cross Creek (21.3)
75. Howard (20.22)
76. Columbus (20.12)
77. Hephzibah (20.04)

CLASS AAA
1. Buford (86.04)
2. Peach County (83.69)
3. Thomson (78.64)
4. Carver (Columbus) (76.67)
5. St. Pius X (76.3)
6. Washington County (75.2)
7. Woodward Academy (64.04)
8. Blessed Trinity (63.75)
9. Elbert County (63.31)
10. Cartersville (61.83)
11. North Oconee (61.49)
12. Appling County (58.96)
13. Jackson (58.21)
14. Callaway (58.04)
15. Jefferson County (57.93)
16. Cedar Grove (57.53)
17. North Hall (54.25)
18. Swainsboro (53.36)
19. Pierce County (53.19)
20. Morgan County (52.53)
21. White County (51.4)
22. Gordon Central (50.82)
23. Chapel Hill (49.78)
24. Hart County (49.01)
25. Adairsville (48.36)
26. Henry County (46.5)
27. Ringgold (46.44)
28. Dodge County (46.04)
29. Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe (44.03)
30. Tattnall County (43.51)
31. Central (Carrollton) (42.45)
32. Decatur (41.87)
33. Rockmart (40.89)
34. Pike County (40.34)
35. Dawson County (39.98)
36. North Murray (38.05)
37. Franklin County (37.58)
38. Central (Macon) (37.06)
39. Oconee County (37.05)
40. Beach (36.77)
41. Haralson County (35.74)
42. Jackson (Atlanta) (35.65)
43. McNair (33.86)
44. Jackson County (32.98)
45. Savannah (31.37)
46. Southwest (31.15)
47. Fannin County (28.52)
48. East Hall (25.92)
49. Douglass (25.88)
50. Johnson (Savannah) (25.84)
51. West Hall (25.82)
52. Southeast Bulloch (24.96)
53. Sonoraville (22.26)
54. Banks County (22.13)
55. Coahulla Creek (20.44)
56. B.E.S.T Academy (19.55)
57. Brantley County (18.84)
58. East Jackson (16.97)
59. Towers (14.22)
60. Cross Keys (-24.28)

CLASS AA
1. Calhoun (87.77)
2. Brooks County (75.11)
3. Cook (71.28)
4. Fitzgerald (70.38)
5. Lovett (68.32)
6. Westminster (61.3)
7. Greater Atlanta Christian (61.29)
8. Washington-Wilkes (58.1)
9. Thomasville (57.8)
10. Early County (55.75)
11. Vidalia (55.59)
12. Laney (55.47)
13. Heard County (54.35)
14. Lamar County (52.84)
15. Jefferson (52.65)
16. Wesleyan (51.99)
17. Bleckley County (51.79)
18. Screven County (50.8)
19. Northeast (49.28)
20. Benedictine (48.65)
21. Pepperell (47.23)
22. McIntosh County Academy (46.4)
23. Bowdon (45.27)
24. Bremen (44.37)
25. Manchester (40.94)
26. East Laurens (40.72)
27. Putnam County (40.41)
28. Toombs County (39.36)
29. Bacon County (38.86)
30. Westside (Augusta) (36.45)
31. Dublin (33.06)
32. Dade County (31.23)
33. Coosa (30.39)
34. Monticello (30.02)
35. Taylor County (29.79)
36. Macon County (28.12)
37. Greene County (27.96)
38. Chattahoochee County (27.84)
39. Union County (27.59)
40. Berrien (26.96)
41. Metter (26.52)
42. Oglethorpe County (26.37)
43. Model (26.34)
44. Armuchee (25.68)
45. Chattooga (25.4)
46. Long County (25.08)
47. Bryan County (25.02)
48. Kendrick (23.29)
49. Josey (22.03)
50. Rabun County (21.86)
51. Jeff Davis (21.78)
52. Spencer (21.74)
53. Pelham (21.74)
54. Harlem (13.95)
55. Temple (12.11)
56. Riverside Military (10.4)
57. Crawford County (8.35)
58. Hapeville (7)
59. Atkinson County (5.02)
60. Jordan (3.46)
61. Social Circle (2.1)
62. Murray County (1.98)

CLASS A (public)

1. Lincoln County (59.77)
2. Wilcox County (56.79)
3. Charlton County (55.7)
4. Emanuel County Institute (52.79)
5. Clinch County (50.96)
6. Dooly County (49.87)
7. Wilkinson County (49.32)
8. Seminole County (47.73)
9. Turner County (44.41)
10. Hancock Central (43.28)
11. Commerce (42.93)
12. Claxton (42.88)
13. Greenville (41.07)
14. Marion County (41.07)
15. Irwin County (40.85)
16. Johnson County (40.16)
17. Mitchell County (39.21)
18. Trion (38.74)
19. Miller County (38.48)
20. Warren County (33.88)
21. Gordon Lee (33.31)
22. Terrell County (31.79)
23. Treutlen (30.44)
24. Hawkinsville (30.43)
25. Randolph-Clay (24.02)
26. Georgia Military College (22.6)
27. Jenkins County (21.88)
28. Calhoun County (21.67)
29. Twiggs County (21.48)
30. Telfair County (21.31)
31. Lanier County (20.8)
32. Portal (17.41)
33. Schley County (16.55)
34. Central (Talbotton) (12.02)
35. Glascock County (11.92)
36. Wheeler County (9.73)
37. Montgomery County (7.47)
38. Mount Zion (Carroll) (-1.7)
39. Rabun Gap (-2.16)
40. Towns County (-3.82)
41. Baconton (-5.97)
42. Stewart County (-13.49)

CLASS A (private)

1. Eagle’s Landing Christian (69.22)
2. Prince Avenue Christian (59.4)
3. Aquinas (58.12)
4. Savannah Christian (57.22)
5. George Walton Academy (55.4)
6. Darlington (52.39)
7. Holy Innocents (47.8)
8. Calvary Day (46.97)
9. Athens Academy (45.2)
10. First Presbyterian (44.69)
11. Brookstone (42.21)
12. Landmark Christian (40.42)
13. Our Lady of Mercy (38.14)
14. King’s Ridge (33.3)
15. Pace Academy (27.11)
16. Walker (26.84)
17. Mount Paran Christian (26.68)
18. Mount Pisgah Christian (25.71)
19. Athens Christian (25.66)
20. Whitefield Academy (24.04)
21. Savannah Country Day (22.59)
22. Christian Heritage (22.36)
23. Pinecrest Academy (19.78)
24. Pacelli (18.34)
25. Strong Rock Christian (15.25)
26. Lakeview Academy (13.09)
27. Fellowship Christian (4.27)
28. Southwest Atlanta Christian (3.89)
29. Mount Vernon (-0.67)
30. St. Francis (-6.26)
31. Hebron Christian Academy (-7.14)
32. Providence Christian (-9.34)
33. North Cobb Christian (-18.53)

The ratings are compiled by Loren Maxwell, who has been involved with sports ratings since 1986. Maxwell is an avid sports historian and the founder of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Currently, he is an active duty officer in the Air Force as an instructor at the Air Force Institute of Technology.

15 comments Add your comment

WarEagle

October 3rd, 2012
10:18 am

@Todd — is Lovett over- or under-rated? Last paragraph has them both. Judging from the headline, maybe you intended “Lassiter” for “Lovett” in the overrated group.

TJ Morris

October 3rd, 2012
11:14 am

How bout them northside eagles best team in the state.

sportsnut

October 3rd, 2012
11:50 am

Nothing new.

sportsnut

October 3rd, 2012
11:58 am

I can hardly wait for the playoffs.

My dad is a tv repairman. I can fix it.

October 3rd, 2012
12:02 pm

Trying to figure out how buford is ranked several spots ahead of gainesville when gainesville beat buford. ??

how 'bout

October 3rd, 2012
12:26 pm

@TJ Morris

…at least on paper…

sportsnut

October 3rd, 2012
3:21 pm

There are more than five in 6A that are over-rated.

BROOKS COUNTY 2005

October 3rd, 2012
3:46 pm

AA ONLY HAS ONE TEAM IN THE TOP 25 BUT WHAT ABOUT BROOKS COUNTY WHO BEAT A TOP RANKED EARLY COUNTY TEAM 42 TO 8 WHO YALL HAD RANK AT #8 IN THE POLLS

Jeez

October 3rd, 2012
4:30 pm

Computer rankings for high school? Useless. That’s why the games are actually played and sort out the reality.

Laser

October 3rd, 2012
8:17 pm

It’s been very interesting to watch Tucker, so far, fly under the radar screen. Not much talk at all about the Tigers. I don’t know how far they can go, or how deep they may advance in the play-offs, but since 2007 they are 69-6 with 2 state championships. Next week’s game with Stephenson will be huge in Region 6-AAAAA

BamaBornDukie

October 3rd, 2012
8:46 pm

I attended the Walton vs North Cobb game a few weeks back. I’m a Walton fan……but North Cobb dominated the 2nd half of that game. Complete mismatch in terms of speed/athleticism as Walton’s defense couldn’t match-up with North Cobb’s speed.

I’d favor North Cobb by 10 points in a rematch with Walton’s only chance at winning being Jones having a game like he had against Brookwood or McEachern with 300+ yards rushing and 4/5 TDs. Too much of a difference from an athletic standpoint overall in favor of North Cobb.

Also, Tyler Queen of North Cobb will probably be the #1 rated QB in Georgia in the 2015 Class. Kid is LEGIT. I think North Cobb is underrated.

The Cross

October 3rd, 2012
9:48 pm

Is Maxwell Ratings the same as MaxPreps? Because I thought Norcross moved to number 1 in MaxPreps and they also ranked our schedule as one of the toughest in AAAAAA.

Norcross is a very strong team. I watched Camden play in the dome and we would give them all they wanted and more. That game in my opinion is a coin flip. I also watched some film on Lassiter and I am confident we would beat them soundly.

The Cross

O

October 3rd, 2012
10:30 pm

I was also a fan at the north cobb/walton game and went to see the tyren jones “show” but I ended up seeing the north cobb “show”. They are loaded and i agree with BamaBornDukie, they are underrated. Tyren had a quiet 170 yards but worked extra hard to get them. North Cobb is good on both sides of the ball and look for them to make some major noise the rest of the season and postseason. They are worth the price of admission and some!

CJ

October 4th, 2012
8:01 am

I’m a North Cobb alum from years and years ago, and North Cobb is definitely overrated. North Cobb has never won anything – I mean ANYTHING outside of their region – and they’ve only won their region a couple of times. They haven’t won a single playoff game since something like 1957 or so. A few years ago, they went 10-0 in the regular season and then lost in the first round of the playoffs (as they always have). Until they actually win a single state playoff game, why does anyone bother to rank them anywhere near the top? I look for them to be strong in the region (the weakest one in the state, by the way) and then fold in the playoffs when they play the real teams, just like they always, always, always have. Cold reality – outside of McEachern and, to a lesser extent, Walton, Cobb County football is an absolute joke on the state level. Ask anyone from the South Georgia regions or anyone from Gwinnett if they prefer playing a team from their own regions or a team from Cobb. They’ll tell you – Cobb – every time.

sportsnut

October 7th, 2012
6:57 am