Region race begins this week in 6-AAAAA

Region play begins this week in 6-AAAAA, perhaps one of the most competitive regions in Class AAAAA. Here’s a look at each team’s playoff chances going into region play.

Keep in mind that these are as much guesses based on history as they are predictions. No team was given a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs, because there are too many unknowns, such as forfeits, injuries or bad weather. And the 95 percent grade will be reserved for Tucker and Northside-Warner Robins (when we get to 1-AAAAA), the two elites in the classification. But any grade at 80 percent or more means I’m pretty confident that team will make the playoffs.

Which teams on the lists below are getting too much credit? Which ones are being underestimated?

I’ll have more regions in the coming weeks as they begin league play.

Region 6-AAAAA

*Tucker (95%) – The 2011 Class AAAA champions are ranked No. 2 in the state and the favorites to win the region. The Tigers are a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

*M.L. King (85%) – The Lions’ chances of making the playoffs are probably higher than this, but they’ll need to prove they’ve overcome an abrupt coaching change just before the start of the season. A 23-0 victory over Stockbridge in the opener was a good start.

*Stephenson (85%) – Like M.L. King, the Jaguars’ real playoff chances could be higher, but the cancellation of their game last week leaves them as one of just a handful of teams across the state that hasn’t played. It’s hard to make a fair judgment.

*Southwest DeKalb (60%) – The Panthers made the playoffs six of the past seven seasons and appear to be the frontrunner to grab the fourth postseason berth from the region this year. The Sept. 21 game against Mays will be a big one.

*Mays (30%) – The Raiders also made the playoffs six of the past seven seasons, but they’ll have a fight on their hands to go back this season. A loss to Carver-Atlanta last week does not bode well. Mays probably needs to beat Miller Grove and Southwest DeKalb over the next three weeks to have a shot.

*Miller Grove (25%) – The Wolverines were in the playoff hunt last year until late-season, lopsided losses to Tucker and Southwest DeKalb knocked them out. Miller Grove will need to reverse last season’s results and knock off at least one of the top-tier teams to have a shot.

*Dunwoody (8%) – The Wildcats usually are at least close to the playoff hunt, but it’s going to be tough for them this year with the addition of Stephenson and M.L. King to the region. A 38-6 loss to Chamblee in the opener was not a good sign.

*Arabia Mountain (8%) – The Rams appear to be headed in the right direction, but they are in just their third full varsity season and have not been better than 3-7 (and that was in AAA).

*North Atlanta (3%) – The Warriors went 2-8 in Class AAA last season and haven’t been to the playoffs since 1996. The will have a difficult time changing that this season.

*Lakeside-DeKalb (1%) – The Vikings won’t make the playoffs, but they should be dramatically improved under first-year coach Mike Rozier. The 14 points they scored in a season-opening loss to Holy Innocents’ were more than they had in nine of their 10 games last season.

*Clarkston (0%) – The Angoras aren’t eligible for the postseason because they opted to play a non-region schedule. That probably was a wise choice considering they lost their first two games to Arabia Mountain and Druid Hills by a combined score of 73-2.

5-AAAAA

Region play already is under way in 5-AAAAA, which has 11 members and is playing a full round-robin schedule. Look for East Paulding, Allatoona and Rome to pull away from the pack, with Hiram, Villa Rica and perhaps North Paulding fighting for the final playoff spot. New Manchester is currently in first place at 2-0, but it’s hard to imagine that the second-year Jaguars can survive a three-game stretch beginning Sept. 21 that has them facing East Paulding, Rome and Allatoona on consecutive weekends. Here’s how I see the chances of making the playoffs in this region:

East Paulding – 94%

Allatoona – 80%

Rome – 75%

Hiram – 51%

Villa Rica – 40%

North Paulding – 25%

New Manchester – 12%

South Paulding – 12%

Woodland-Cartersville – 8%

Lithia Springs – 2%

Paulding County – 1%

20 comments Add your comment

Dragstrip Road

September 4th, 2012
10:11 am

First………………..EAST !

footballcounty1

September 4th, 2012
7:21 pm

I know people are waiting on the MLK to fall (lose). They did lose their HC, but they are fortune enough to have an outstanding coaching staff. I look forward to seeing you in the playoffs.

Dekalb County Guy

September 4th, 2012
9:51 pm

Tucker 95% chance? I would say more like 99% chance. I thought Mays might have a shot to get in there, but losing to Carver doesnt look good for them. I think a sleeper might be Arabia Mtn. I would give them better than 8% chance though.

Chip Saye

September 4th, 2012
10:18 pm

@Dekalb County Guy … I’m in agreement with everything you just said. Tucker will definitely be in the playoffs. Although the Mays loss doesn’t hurt them in the region standings, it sure brought up a lot of questions. And I agree that Arabia Mountain is getting better, but it’s still going to be difficult with all of the strong teams ahead of them.

I'm Keep it REAL

September 4th, 2012
10:49 pm

Mays coaches have to keep the intensity up…… Mays lead 27-6 with :40 sec left in 2qt…. the coach went for the kill and offense turn it over on there 35. Carver threw bomb cut 27-12,
then converted a two point conversion. Mays never gain that big MO back…. Its this simple
Coach Callaway will have to STEP UP or STEP DOWN this year!

Mays Maniac

September 5th, 2012
12:52 pm

I totally agree Mays should have never lost that game, it was a small test and we must commit to the run game if we are to be special in our region and not go for killer passes that may put us in a horrible position. The run game was very effective with # 32 and we blew it…. The passing game for Mays was very disappointing to say the least. This is the year we do or die for Coach Calloway and in this region we can’t afford mistakes. The Hill Is Real !!!!!

WinderDawg

September 5th, 2012
5:21 pm

Clarkston? Though never a state power the Angoras were a force within their region from the late 60’s up unitl the year 2000. Reaching the state playoffs in 74 and other times through the 80’s and through the 90’s one year reached the semi-finals.

what has changed to create this football void in Clarkston yet Tucker, ML King, Stephenson, other schools around Clarkston have programs that can compeat?

74 Angora

5AReg6Fan

September 5th, 2012
5:25 pm

Well you know I would chime in on this article, hence my blog handle. (LOL) I would agree with most of Chip’s analysis on each team in the region, also I agree with DeKalb County Guy assessment on Arabia Mtn…the Rams might be this year’s sleeper – Friday the 7th will tell much about their readiness. Stephenson shouldn’t take Arabia too lightly.

Thanks for the input Mays fans. I was surprised at the final score. Things don’t get any easy for Mays; Miller Grove is next, followed by two teams that Chip has rated high in making the playoffs, MLK & SWD. If what you mention about the HC is true, well, he doesn’t have much time to get it right…don’t want 2 region losses this early in the season, still having Stephenson and Tucker left. Remember one of Chip’s notes on MG, they will need to beat Mays, if they want to improve their playoff hopes…I’m guessing the Wolverines will be ready for this matchup.

Waiting to hear from the Stephenson supporters (JAB, Stephensonfinest, etc.). (LOL)

This week’s game of the week in 5A region 6 is the SWD/MLK matchup. The winner will be in the driver seat, for at least one week in the season.

“WE ARE TUCKER”

REGION 6, the best in GA 2012 5A Football……

5AReg6Fan

September 5th, 2012
6:55 pm

So Chip, are you saying the ONLY two teams in 5A deserving of your highest rating (95%) is Tucker and NSWR? Have you seen the 2012 playoff brackets? Can’t find them on the GHSA site. Would be nice if Tucker and NSWR are on opposite side of the brackets…could lead to something special down the road. Much football to be played before this possibility happens.

“WE ARE TUCKER”

REGION 6, the best in GA 2012 5A Football……

blu eagle

September 5th, 2012
9:37 pm

5AReg6Fan, hope you are right about the brackets turning in our favor with us being on opposite sides.I will be curious as how NSWR offense continues to develop, as they have a lot of tricks in their bag. anyway good luck and stay healthy!

James K Polk

September 5th, 2012
11:32 pm

I hate it when you all put “Warner Robins” after our name. We are Northside…not Northside-Warner Robins, not Northside (WR), and not NSWR. I think we’ve more than earned the right to drop our city’s name, which happens to be shared by that cesspool of a school on the south side of town. Save the ink.

Chip Saye

September 6th, 2012
12:40 am

@5AReg6Fan … I just looked at the brackets (you have to dig in the Constitution and By-Laws section on the GHSA Web site), and it appears that if Northside and Tucker both win their regions, they would not meet until the championship game. Now you just have to make sure that Warner Robins, Stephenson or M.L. King don’t get in the way in your regions.

@James K Polk … No disrespect intended to the Northside Eagles. But there is another Northside (the one in Columbus) that plays football in AAAAA, although obviously not at the same level. We do the same thing with the Centrals, Westsides, Johnsons, Heritages and Lakesides of the world. You have earned the respect … we just have to be clear for those fans who don’t follow it as closely as you do.

dekalbco46

September 6th, 2012
8:25 am

definitely have mlk underrated and tucker overrated

Tiger4Life

September 6th, 2012
6:20 pm

I seen ML King play against Cedar Grove and Stockbridge. They are not very good this year. If they can’t block better on the O line they are in for a long season. And for that reason I see them losing against SWD this Saturday.

thehillisreal

September 7th, 2012
12:52 am

@tiger4life…. threw those game out….. everybody return except Carson, in the Stockbridge game Outlaw and two other starting OL did not play. There were couple defense player missing to. MLK is much larger than last year. In that Stockbridge game that defense was on point. remember Mlk turned over on it 30 and only gave 5 yd in 4 plays.

James K Polk

September 7th, 2012
12:53 am

Well, just call us, “Northside-Middle Georgia”…it’s the “Warner Robins” part that bothers us. I don’t want us associated with WRHS. Northside-Warner Robins is a game…not our school’s name. My diploma says Northside High School…nothing about Warner Robins is mentioned.

Old Gold Panther

September 7th, 2012
3:10 am

SWD fighting for Fourth seed??? All i have to say is keep doubting them Panthers. Panthers will be ranked after this weekend. Write it down!

Ace #MLKLionsDen

September 9th, 2012
11:34 am

Honestly ..Arabia Mountain has a WAY better chance to making the playoffs then SWD, Dunwoody, Mays, and Miller Grove. After seeing them play this past friday in a game they should have easily won against Stephenson (28-18).. I know now they are no joke…SPEED KILLS, but when you dropping touchdown passes about 10 Times .. its going to be hard. Look for a real intense game against Tucker this friday …

Lakeside Legend

September 10th, 2012
2:51 pm

The 1% solution is the Lakeside Viking Football team. Stay asleep Top four. Tucker still does not have a winning record against Lakeside after how many years on top? What school has the most State Championship appearances and wins? We are back, better get used to it.

5AReg6Fan

September 14th, 2012
2:57 pm

@Lakeside legend – Yep, you are right and in 2012 (emphasis) Lakeside has won there only game until Nov 2 against North Atlanta. 2-8 is a lot better than 0-10 (2011). See you Sept 28th – Tucker’s homecoming, where all the Tigers will play.

“WE ARE TUCKER”

REGION 6, the best in GA 2012 5A Football……