Maxwell computer ratings, projected records for AAAAAA, AAAAA and AAAA teams

For each of the past three seasons, GHSF Daily has called on the Maxwell Ratings to provide objective, computerized rankings of Georgia’s teams, regions and schedules. The Maxwell Rankings also predict winners and margins of victory.

Below, the Maxwell Ratings project the region finish and record for the three highest classifications. We’ll have AAA, AA and A on Thursday.

The only data used are historical scores. A computer cannot take into account personnel and coaching changes from season to season.

So what good are computer rankings? They tell us what history says about the current season. Using history as our guide, this is what the 2012 season might look like. Note that the projected W-L records are rounded to whole numbers. That explains why total region records might not equal .500.

The ratings are compiled by Loren Maxwell, who has been involved with sports ratings since 1986. Maxwell is an avid sports historian and the founder of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Currently, he is an active duty officer in the Air Force as an instructor at the Air Force Institute of Technology.

Story produced by Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Class

Rank

State

Rank

Team

Rating

Sch. Str.

Overall

W-L

Region

W-L

1-AAAAAA

3

7

Lowndes

89.07

67.80

8 – 2

4 – 2

4

8

Colquitt County

88.00

79.16

7 – 3

4 – 2

5

9

Camden County

87.95

71.11

8 – 2

4 – 2

11

22

Valdosta

80.81

72.71

7 – 3

3 – 3

25

53

Coffee

70.46

76.11

4 – 6

2 – 4

30

68

Tift County

66.96

72.95

4 – 6

2 – 5

33

89

Brunswick

63.07

73.16

3 – 7

1 – 5

2-AAAAAA

16

33

Lovejoy

76.81

56.85

8 – 2

5 – 1

31

71

Newton

66.56

57.51

6 – 4

5 – 1

47

134

Luella

57.38

57.06

5 – 5

4 – 2

48

139

Alcovy

56.98

55.39

5 – 5

4 – 2

60

260

Rockdale County

40.72

55.68

3 – 7

2 – 4

61

289

Druid Hills

35.58

43.95

4 – 6

1 – 5

62

333

Morrow

26.66

51.12

1 – 9

1 – 5

3-AAAAAA

18

38

Newnan

75.90

62.75

7 – 3

4 – 1

22

46

East Coweta

73.33

65.47

6 – 4

4 – 1

29

65

Tri-Cities

67.59

62.44

6 – 4

3 – 2

37

100

Westlake

61.45

65.32

4 – 6

2 – 3

53

185

Douglas County

49.43

67.12

2 – 8

1 – 4

56

205

Hughes

47.75

61.42

3 – 7

1 – 4

4-AAAAAA

7

12

McEachern

84.53

67.44

8 – 2

7 – 1

13

29

Hillgrove

78.44

64.93

8 – 2

6 – 2

28

64

Marietta

67.76

66.84

5 – 5

5 – 3

32

75

South Cobb

65.63

62.76

6 – 4

4 – 4

33

76

North Cobb

65.33

66.76

5 – 5

4 – 4

35

95

Harrison

62.42

66.59

4 – 6

4 – 4

36

99

Pebblebrook

61.52

64.34

5 – 5

4 – 4

57

217

Campbell

46.13

61.54

3 – 7

1 – 7

58

218

Kennesaw Mountain

46.03

66.95

1 – 8

1 – 7

5-AAAAAA

6

11

Walton

85.04

69.34

8 – 2

6 – 1

14

30

Lassiter

78.38

68.94

7 – 3

5 – 2

17

35

Etowah

76.46

65.70

7 – 3

5 – 2

27

56

Woodstock

69.12

67.53

5 – 5

4 – 3

38

101

Roswell

61.33

66.26

4 – 6

3 – 4

40

105

Milton

60.77

67.29

4 – 6

3 – 4

50

160

Wheeler

53.48

67.52

3 – 7

2 – 5

52

170

Cherokee

51.92

64.59

3 – 7

1 – 6

6-AAAAAA

19

42

Chattahoochee

74.68

60.35

8 – 2

5 – 2

21

45

West Forsyth

73.80

65.49

7 – 3

5 – 2

24

52

Alpharetta

70.67

63.75

7 – 3

5 – 2

39

102

Johns Creek

61.21

64.03

5 – 5

3 – 4

40

104

Centennial

60.90

64.98

4 – 6

3 – 4

43

111

Lambert

60.22

63.70

4 – 6

3 – 4

51

165

North Forsyth

52.91

58.95

4 – 6

2 – 5

55

200

South Forsyth

48.26

58.78

3 – 7

1 – 6

7-AAAAAA

2

6

North Gwinnett

91.53

68.72

8 – 2

7 – 1

9

15

Peachtree Ridge

82.76

69.82

7 – 3

6 – 2

10

20

Norcross

81.61

68.08

7 – 3

6 – 2

15

32

Collins Hill

76.84

67.97

6 – 4

5 – 3

20

44

Mill Creek

73.84

71.91

5 – 5

5 – 3

45

129

Habersham Central

57.90

66.62

4 – 6

3 – 5

46

129

Duluth

57.90

68.16

4 – 6

3 – 5

54

197

Mountain View

48.45

69.19

2 – 8

2 – 6

63

342

Meadowcreek

24.58

67.55

0 – 10

0 – 8

8-AAAAAA

1

1

Grayson

95.69

68.31

9 – 1

7 – 1

8

13

Brookwood

84.21

69.39

8 – 2

6 – 2

12

28

Dacula

78.46

69.24

7 – 3

6 – 2

23

51

South Gwinnett

71.08

68.89

5 – 5

4 – 4

26

54

Parkview

70.30

72.75

5 – 5

4 – 4

42

110

Central Gwinnett

60.24

72.28

3 – 7

3 – 5

44

118

Archer

59.30

69.10

4 – 6

3 – 5

49

159

Shiloh

53.72

64.94

4 – 6

2 – 6

59

228

Berkmar

44.89

67.18

2 – 8

1 – 7

1-AAAAA

10

36

Thomas Co. Central

76.28

65.46

7 – 3

4 – 1

17

62

Bainbridge

67.94

59.15

7 – 3

4 – 1

35

147

Harris County

55.97

55.07

5 – 5

2 – 3

42

179

Lee County

50.56

50.17

5 – 5

2 – 3

43

180

Hardaway

50.39

57.89

4 – 6

2 – 3

48

192

Northside (Col.)

48.81

52.74

5 – 5

1 – 4

2-AAAAA

2

4

Northside (W. R.)

92.42

57.46

9 – 1

7 – 0

6

23

Warner Robins

79.85

55.01

8 – 2

6 – 1

24

103

Lakeside (Evans)

60.93

58.24

6 – 5

4 – 3

33

141

Houston County

56.43

58.52

5 – 5

3 – 4

33

145

Jones County

56.10

58.33

5 – 5

3 – 4

51

203

Evans

47.94

60.13

3 – 7

2 – 5

54

215

Greenbrier

46.58

57.79

3 – 7

2 – 5

67

284

Grovetown

37.06

61.23

2 – 8

1 – 6

3-AAAAA

12

39

Ware County

75.82

52.20

9 – 1

7 – 0

21

87

Glynn Academy

63.20

49.96

8 – 2

5 – 2

50

199

Windsor Forest

48.30

51.86

4 – 5

3 – 4

52

212

Richmond Hill

46.88

44.29

6 – 4

3 – 4

55

216

Effingham County

46.43

46.97

5 – 5

3 – 4

56

233

Jenkins

44.47

51.26

4 – 6

3 – 4

61

259

Groves

40.76

52.20

3 – 7

2 – 5

68

290

Bradwell Institute

35.38

50.10

2 – 8

2 – 6

4-AAAAA Div. A

26

113

Union Grove

59.81

49.53

6 – 3

4 – 1

39

154

Drew

54.82

47.96

6 – 3

3 – 2

44

182

Mount Zion (Jones.)

50.20

53.67

4 – 5

3 – 2

53

214

Ola

46.68

46.64

5 – 4

2 – 3

60

256

Mundy’s Mill

41.09

57.29

2 – 7

2 – 3

69

305

Forest Park

31.78

55.00

1 – 8

1 – 4

4-AAAAA Div. B

15

59

Whitewater

68.53

54.85

7 – 2

3 – 1

16

60

Northgate

68.27

61.43

6 – 3

3 – 1

23

96

Starr’s Mill

62.22

59.80

5 – 4

2 – 2

27

114

Creekside

59.69

56.94

5 – 4

2 – 2

57

245

McIntosh

43.01

53.07

3 – 6

0 – 4

5-AAAAA

7

24

East Paulding

79.71

51.33

9 – 1

9 – 1

18

72

Allatoona

66.42

52.06

8 – 2

8 – 2

25

106

Rome

60.65

52.73

6 – 4

6 – 4

29

117

Hiram

59.35

52.41

6 – 4

6 – 4

30

136

Villa Rica

57.22

52.81

6 – 4

6 – 4

37

149

South Paulding

55.68

53.18

6 – 4

6 – 4

45

183

North Paulding

50.08

54.16

4 – 6

4 – 6

47

191

Woodland (Carters.)

48.85

54.35

4 – 6

4 – 6

62

268

Paulding County

39.75

55.44

3 – 7

3 – 7

64

277

Lithia Springs

38.70

55.97

2 – 8

2 – 8

73

375

New Manchester

17.31

56.01

0 – 10

0 – 10

6-AAAAA

1

3

Tucker

92.51

57.61

9 – 1

8 – 1

3

14

M.L. King

83.26

58.19

8 – 2

7 – 2

4

17

Stephenson

82.46

57.22

8 – 2

7 – 2

14

55

Southwest DeKalb

70.06

59.40

6 – 4

6 – 3

22

92

Mays

62.55

57.56

6 – 4

5 – 4

32

138

Dunwoody

57.02

58.64

5 – 5

4 – 5

46

184

Miller Grove

49.89

60.01

4 – 6

3 – 6

65

281

Arabia Mountain

37.74

59.89

3 – 7

2 – 7

66

283

North Atlanta

37.25

63.05

2 – 8

2 – 7

71

349

Lakeside (DeKalb)

23.34

62.62

1 – 9

1 – 8

75

441

Clarkston

13.80

17.00

5 – 5

7-AAAAA Div. A

40

161

Sequoyah

53.35

44.83

5 – 3

3 – 1

40

162

Creekview

53.27

41.26

6 – 3

4 – 1

49

194

Northview

48.56

47.31

5 – 4

3 – 2

59

253

Forsyth Central

41.84

44.86

4 – 5

3 – 2

72

357

Cambridge

22.19

46.93

1 – 8

1 – 4

74

395

North Springs

9.32

42.04

1 – 7

0 – 4

7-AAAAA Div. B

5

21

Kell

81.52

60.10

7 – 2

4 – 0

13

49

Pope

72.29

56.62

7 – 2

3 – 1

20

81

Sprayberry

64.97

56.12

6 – 3

2 – 2

58

249

Riverwood

42.15

51.15

4 – 6

1 – 3

63

273

Osborne

39.23

53.70

3 – 6

1 – 3

8-AAAAA

8

26

Flowery Branch

79.01

65.74

7 – 3

6 – 2

9

31

Gainesville

77.58

65.32

7 – 3

6 – 2

11

37

Clarke Central

76.27

63.23

7 – 3

6 – 2

19

79

Heritage (Conyers)

65.11

61.13

6 – 4

4 – 4

28

115

Loganville

59.39

59.41

5 – 5

4 – 5

31

136

Apalachee

57.22

61.71

4 – 6

3 – 5

36

148

Cedar Shoals

55.92

63.47

4 – 6

3 – 5

38

152

Salem

55.21

61.98

4 – 6

3 – 5

70

311

Winder-Barrow

31.07

62.12

1 – 9

0 – 8

1-AAAA

4

27

Cairo

78.60

58.04

8 – 2

6 – 1

19

115

Americus-Sumter

59.39

46.38

7 – 3

4 – 3

21

121

Worth County

58.68

56.68

6 – 5

4 – 3

27

135

Monroe

57.31

60.24

5 – 5

4 – 3

31

158

Crisp County

53.88

57.27

5 – 5

3 – 4

33

173

Westover

51.10

57.80

4 – 6

3 – 4

56

263

Albany

40.32

54.28

2 – 8

1 – 6

60

276

Dougherty

38.77

58.84

2 – 8

1 – 6

2-AAAA

8

50

Baldwin

71.59

56.20

8 – 2

6 – 1

13

93

Westside (Macon)

62.54

51.34

7 – 3

5 – 2

17

109

Mary Persons

60.47

54.10

6 – 4

5 – 2

20

120

Perry

59.06

52.63

6 – 4

5 – 2

37

187

West Laurens

49.27

53.20

4 – 6

3 – 4

51

243

Veterans

43.16

60.09

3 – 7

2 – 5

61

285

Rutland

37.03

50.24

3 – 7

2 – 5

67

323

Howard

28.77

48.67

2 – 8

1 – 6

3-AAAA Div. A

6

47

Statesboro

72.92

52.66

8 – 2

3 – 0

33

176

Wayne County

50.83

58.35

3 – 6

1 – 2

39

190

Liberty County

49.13

40.82

6 – 3

1 – 2

50

242

South Effingham

43.19

42.52

5 – 4

1 – 2

3-AAAA Div. B

3

25

Burke County

79.12

47.51

8 – 1

5 – 0

48

231

Richmond Academy

44.54

42.47

5 – 4

3 – 2

49

239

Butler

43.91

44.62

5 – 4

3 – 2

66

319

Hephzibah

29.57

38.31

3 – 6

2 – 3

70

339

Glenn Hills

24.93

43.63

2 – 7

1 – 4

74

361

Cross Creek

20.29

42.45

2 – 7

1 – 4

4-AAAA Div. A

14

94

Stockbridge

62.51

57.62

5 – 4

3 – 1

15

97

Dutchtown

61.79

52.27

6 – 3

3 – 1

42

210

Woodland (Stock.)

47.38

54.32

4 – 5

2 – 2

58

272

Locust Grove

39.26

50.36

3 – 6

1 – 3

68

328

Eagle’s Landing

27.85

53.97

1 – 8

0 – 4

4-AAAA Div. B

7

48

Griffin

72.37

58.41

7 – 2

4 – 1

9

74

North Clayton

66.16

58.35

6 – 3

3 – 2

16

108

Jonesboro

60.48

52.38

6 – 3

3 – 2

28

143

Upson-Lee

56.13

51.57

5 – 4

2 – 3

36

186

Riverdale

49.40

57.55

3 – 6

1 – 4

52

246

Spalding

42.97

55.88

2 – 7

1 – 4

5-AAAA

1

10

Sandy Creek

85.25

59.07

9 – 1

6 – 1

2

19

Carrollton

82.09

56.99

8 – 2

6 – 1

12

88

Troup

63.16

56.41

6 – 4

4 – 3

30

153

LaGrange

55.18

60.26

4 – 6

3 – 4

38

188

Shaw

49.23

58.99

4 – 6

3 – 4

40

201

Fayette County

48.25

60.54

3 – 7

3 – 4

43

213

Alexander

46.74

54.47

4 – 6

2 – 5

72

354

Columbus

22.89

56.79

1 – 10

0 – 7

6-AAAA Div. A

5

40

Marist

75.01

55.76

7 – 2

5 – 0

26

131

Stone Mountain

57.78

53.78

5 – 4

3 – 2

29

150

Columbia

55.62

52.87

5 – 4

3 – 2

45

221

Lithonia

45.77

52.72

3 – 6

2 – 3

46

222

Chamblee

45.66

52.97

3 – 6

2 – 3

47

227

Redan

44.96

58.19

2 – 7

1 – 4

6-AAAA Div. B

24

126

Banneker

58.10

52.23

5 – 4

4 – 1

25

128

Grady

58.02

46.95

6 – 3

4 – 1

35

181

Washington

50.36

50.64

5 – 4

3 – 2

44

220

Carver (Atlanta)

45.89

47.65

4 – 5

3 – 2

63

302

South Atlanta

32.21

45.60

2 – 7

1 – 4

69

329

Therrell

27.48

48.19

2 – 7

1 – 4

7-AAAA Div. A

40

204

Cedartown

47.79

40.40

6 – 3

3 – 1

54

251

Gilmer

41.92

36.32

6 – 3

3 – 1

57

264

Cass

40.21

45.38

4 – 5

3 – 2

73

359

Pickens

21.80

39.38

2 – 7

1 – 3

75

369

River Ridge

18.35

47.44

1 – 8

1 – 3

7-AAAA Div. B

11

84

Dalton

63.60

47.66

7 – 2

4 – 1

22

123

Northwest Whitfield

58.54

41.18

7 – 2

4 – 1

23

125

Ridgeland

58.18

43.83

6 – 3

4 – 1

53

250

LaFayette

42.04

43.23

4 – 5

2 – 3

62

296

Heritage (Catoosa)

33.68

44.37

3 – 6

1 – 4

64

304

Southeast Whitfield

32.02

45.86

3 – 6

1 – 4

8-AAAA

10

82

Eastside

64.64

46.47

8 – 2

6 – 1

18

112

Stephens County

60.04

44.77

8 – 2

6 – 1

32

168

Monroe Area

52.58

40.75

7 – 3

5 – 2

55

252

Madison County

41.91

45.19

5 – 5

4 – 3

59

274

Lumpkin County

39.07

38.69

5 – 5

3 – 4

65

306

Chestatee

31.73

39.96

4 – 6

2 – 5

71

344

Lanier

24.34

45.97

2 – 8

1 – 6

76

372

Walnut Grove

17.67

45.71

1 – 9

1 – 6

77

431

Johnson (Gaines.)

17.34

26.62

3 – 6

1-AAAAA

10

36

Thomas County Central

76.28

65.46

7 – 3

4 – 1

17

62

Bainbridge

67.94

59.15

7 – 3

4 – 1

35

147

Harris County

55.97

55.07

5 – 5

2 – 3

42

179

Lee County

50.56

50.17

5 – 5

2 – 3

43

180

Hardaway

50.39

57.89

4 – 6

2 – 3

48

192

Northside (Columbus)

48.81

52.74

5 – 5

1 – 4

2-AAAAA

2

4

Northside (W. Robins)

92.42

57.46

9 – 1

7 – 0

6

23

Warner Robins

79.85

55.01

8 – 2

6 – 1

24

103

Lakeside (Evans)

60.93

58.24

6 – 5

4 – 3

33

141

Houston County

56.43

58.52

5 – 5

3 – 4

33

145

Jones County

56.10

58.33

5 – 5

3 – 4

51

203

Evans

47.94

60.13

3 – 7

2 – 5

54

215

Greenbrier

46.58

57.79

3 – 7

2 – 5

67

284

Grovetown

37.06

61.23

2 – 8

1 – 6

3-AAAAA

12

39

Ware County

75.82

52.20

9 – 1

7 – 0

21

87

Glynn Academy

63.20

49.96

8 – 2

5 – 2

50

199

Windsor Forest

48.30

51.86

4 – 5

3 – 4

52

212

Richmond Hill

46.88

44.29

6 – 4

3 – 4

55

216

Effingham County

46.43

46.97

5 – 5

3 – 4

56

233

Jenkins

44.47

51.26

4 – 6

3 – 4

61

259

Groves

40.76

52.20

3 – 7

2 – 5

68

290

Bradwell Institute

35.38

50.10

2 – 8

2 – 6

4-AAAAA Div. A

26

113

Union Grove

59.81

49.53

6 – 3

4 – 1

39

154

Drew

54.82

47.96

6 – 3

3 – 2

44

182

Mount Zion (Jones.)

50.20

53.67

4 – 5

3 – 2

53

214

Ola

46.68

46.64

5 – 4

2 – 3

60

256

Mundy’s Mill

41.09

57.29

2 – 7

2 – 3

69

305

Forest Park

31.78

55.00

1 – 8

1 – 4

4-AAAAA Div. B

15

59

Whitewater

68.53

54.85

7 – 2

3 – 1

16

60

Northgate

68.27

61.43

6 – 3

3 – 1

23

96

Starr’s Mill

62.22

59.80

5 – 4

2 – 2

27

114

Creekside

59.69

56.94

5 – 4

2 – 2

57

245

McIntosh

43.01

53.07

3 – 6

0 – 4

5-AAAAA

7

24

East Paulding

79.71

51.33

9 – 1

9 – 1

18

72

Allatoona

66.42

52.06

8 – 2

8 – 2

25

106

Rome

60.65

52.73

6 – 4

6 – 4

29

117

Hiram

59.35

52.41

6 – 4

6 – 4

30

136

Villa Rica

57.22

52.81

6 – 4

6 – 4

37

149

South Paulding

55.68

53.18

6 – 4

6 – 4

45

183

North Paulding

50.08

54.16

4 – 6

4 – 6

47

191

Woodland (Carters.)

48.85

54.35

4 – 6

4 – 6

62

268

Paulding County

39.75

55.44

3 – 7

3 – 7

64

277

Lithia Springs

38.70

55.97

2 – 8

2 – 8

73

375

New Manchester

17.31

56.01

0 – 10

0 – 10

6-AAAAA

1

3

Tucker

92.51

57.61

9 – 1

8 – 1

3

14

M.L. King

83.26

58.19

8 – 2

7 – 2

4

17

Stephenson

82.46

57.22

8 – 2

7 – 2

14

55

Southwest DeKalb

70.06

59.40

6 – 4

6 – 3

22

92

Mays

62.55

57.56

6 – 4

5 – 4

32

138

Dunwoody

57.02

58.64

5 – 5

4 – 5

46

184

Miller Grove

49.89

60.01

4 – 6

3 – 6

65

281

Arabia Mountain

37.74

59.89

3 – 7

2 – 7

66

283

North Atlanta

37.25

63.05

2 – 8

2 – 7

71

349

Lakeside (DeKalb)

23.34

62.62

1 – 9

1 – 8

75

441

Clarkston

13.80

17.00

5 – 5

7-AAAAA Div. A

40

161

Sequoyah

53.35

44.83

5 – 3

3 – 1

40

162

Creekview

53.27

41.26

6 – 3

4 – 1

49

194

Northview

48.56

47.31

5 – 4

3 – 2

59

253

Forsyth Central

41.84

44.86

4 – 5

3 – 2

72

357

Cambridge

22.19

46.93

1 – 8

1 – 4

74

395

North Springs

9.32

42.04

1 – 7

0 – 4

7-AAAAA Div. B

5

21

Kell

81.52

60.10

7 – 2

4 – 0

13

49

Pope

72.29

56.62

7 – 2

3 – 1

20

81

Sprayberry

64.97

56.12

6 – 3

2 – 2

58

249

Riverwood

42.15

51.15

4 – 6

1 – 3

63

273

Osborne

39.23

53.70

3 – 6

1 – 3

8-AAAAA

8

26

Flowery Branch

79.01

65.74

7 – 3

6 – 2

9

31

Gainesville

77.58

65.32

7 – 3

6 – 2

11

37

Clarke Central

76.27

63.23

7 – 3

6 – 2

19

79

Heritage (Conyers)

65.11

61.13

6 – 4

4 – 4

28

115

Loganville

59.39

59.41

5 – 5

4 – 5

31

136

Apalachee

57.22

61.71

4 – 6

3 – 5

36

148

Cedar Shoals

55.92

63.47

4 – 6

3 – 5

38

152

Salem

55.21

61.98

4 – 6

3 – 5

70

311

Winder-Barrow

31.07

62.12

1 – 9

0 – 8

9 comments Add your comment

THE "CANNON RULES"!!

August 8th, 2012
9:55 am

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!! FIRST!!!
GO RAIDERS!!!!

HS Football

August 8th, 2012
3:11 pm

I see Lassiter losing 1 game, but not a region game. If they do, it will be to Hillgrove or Kell. Kell always seems to be able to beat the 5, now 6A teams they play.

Camden74

August 8th, 2012
5:15 pm

Don’t bet the house on these RANKINGS! :-)

WarEagle

August 8th, 2012
10:14 pm

Ratings that admittedly ignore graduating seniors, new players, coaching changes, and depend on wins/losses under prior class alignment. Very reliable. Just good guesses.

Real Talk

August 9th, 2012
3:26 pm

Take this list and throw it away with the rest of the trash, it’s worthless.

Bigsxee

August 10th, 2012
11:12 pm

Griffin bears losing 2 regular season games this year ? Who made up these predictions ? Must have been smoking weed

Tom

August 11th, 2012
1:26 pm

Obviously the computers don’t know that Troup lost several great players, with some going to the other local schools. They won’t be nearly as good this year

Colquitt Fan

August 12th, 2012
11:00 am

Quit reading after Lowndes was ahead of Colquitt and Camden. List is garbage

Viking fan

August 13th, 2012
11:16 am

A nice scenario….but that’s why they play on the field not on the computer….GO VIKINGS