Validating the bias: Gwinnett teams go 10-1 in first round
It was a fun first round. I still think the score was reversed on the Northside game. I might be ready to believe that Whitewater won, but at no point was the score 28-0. Just don’t believe it. …
No need to kick the Eagles when their down. It had been 13 straight first-round wins until Whitewater beat the No. 1-ranked team in Class AAAA 28-21.
Meanwhile, three of my favorite biases – Gwinnett County, Region 1-AA and Region 6-AA – were impressive in the first round. About 90 percent of the time when there’s a team ranked despite a questionable W-L record, it’s a team from one of these places.
Is there a Gwinnett bias in the AJC rankings? Generally, yes. It’s because Gwinnett teams so often deliver in the playoffs.
Mill Creek 32, Etowah 6.
Parkview was the only Gwinnett team to lose, and it took a 52-yard FG by a region champion playing at home to do it. The rest went 10-0. Four of them won on the road vs. higher-seeded teams.
There was a complaint in an early season Poll Talk blog that it was a Gwinnett conspiracy to have all its AAAAA teams put in two regions, thereby ensuring eight Gwinnett teams would make the playoffs.
Instead, Gwinnett got a bad deal because ONLY eight Gwinnett teams could’ve made the playoffs. Is there any doubt that Peachtree Ridge (which has beaten No. 4 McEachern) and Dacula (which has beaten No. 3 Brookwood) would’ve made the playoffs in just about every region except the ones they played in? Would those teams have won regions 5 and 6?
Meanwhile, Region 1-AA (Thomasville, Fitzgerald, Cook) and Region 6-AA (Buford, Westminster, Lovett) also stood up in the first round. They fare perennial winners in the playoffs: Westminster (7-3) beat North Oconee (9-1), and Lovett (7-3) beat Elbert County (9-1), and Fitz clobbered Dublin. This is why teams like Westminster and Thomasville stay in the rankings with three losses.
Now, for things I wasn’t so smart about. …
-Northside & TCC. Nobody saw Northside coming, but I gave Thomas Central too much benefit of the doubt with its two losses. TCC, which lost 15-0 to Dutchtown, was not a top 10 team.
-Region 3-AAAA: When Griffin couldn’t beat teams badly enough, the Bears began dropping in the polls for winning ugly. Maybe the region was better than we thought. Dutchtown, Whitewater, Starr’s Mill and Griffin all advanced in the first round.
-Grady & Region 5-AAA. I wrote off Grady after the Blessed Trinity loss and wrote off St. Pius after the Grady loss. No teams from this region are rankings, but I’ve got to think at least one ought to be now after a 4-0 sweep in the first round.
-Coastal Georgia: Not saying I should’ve ranked Statesboro or Ware or Glynn Academy or Brunswick, but those teams apparently are pretty goood. That region swept Region 4, which I can’t say that we overrated since Lovejoy didn’t get ranked until it became 9-0.
-Burke/WaCo: Overrated, and I was guilty. In fact, Washington County has been the team that I have most consistently overrated the past three seasons, each time getting as high as No. 5 in AAA only to drop out of the playoffs early.
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417 comments Add your comment
yo
November 17th, 2010
10:05 am
Valdosta McEachern has a very nice stadium. Enjoyable place to watch a football game.
On the other hand McE didn’t seem prepared for the amount of fans Lowndes would bring. No organization when it came to parking or security. It might be they weren’t accustomed to that big crowd on the visitors side attending a football game like we bring.
Any way, bring the W back on home with you.
yo
November 17th, 2010
10:09 am
football fanatic you seem to have region envy…..I do understand and feel your pain.
yo
November 17th, 2010
10:16 am
All we’ve heard for years is this is Newnan’s year. Newnan is loaded.
This is the greatest team Newnan has “ever” had. All of the kind of stuff you hear from Stephenson every year. Newnan you have joined the right region and the one you are well suited for.
Always promising but never delivering.
I know it’s a long drive down to here but ya’ll be sure to bring more than the band, football team and cheerleader’s parents.
If you truly believe you will show up with a big fan base.
Let’s see if you “truly” believe.
football fanatic
November 17th, 2010
10:22 am
@ YO….can you people comprehend ANYTHING down there? Let me say this again and go REALLY slow for you… I NEVER said that Lowndes was not a great football team. I NEVER said that Region 1 does not have good football teams. I NEVER said that Newnan would come down there up and beat Lowndes. If you can READ and COMPREHEND, I stated that it is going to be tough because it is always hard to beat a good football team on their home field. All of poor Newnan folk is saying stop declaring a blowout before the teams even step on the field. Who knows…Newnan just might come back home with a “W”. All I am trying to get you crazy people down there to understand is that Region 1 is not the “end all, be all” for high school football.
football fanatic
November 17th, 2010
10:39 am
@YO…also if you have been following posts, Newnan has never stated that this year is our strongest year. We know that we are down from the last couple of years
bksmith14
November 17th, 2010
11:01 am
@indianfathermceachern, you guys didnt beat lowndes, your clock keeper did!!!!!!!!! Game was over and boy also stepped out of bounds at 1 yard line on last play. I have watched it 10 times on film. Valdosta will take care of you guys fri night and if not you guys season will ed when you run into north gwinnett. Sorry you guys want be making it to the title game. Mceachern is good but not good enough
topper
November 17th, 2010
11:12 am
bksmith14- Just give it a rest! The records say Lowndes lost that game, now it is playoff time you have a #1 seed,that game does not matter anymore.
Overrated 1-AAAAA
November 17th, 2010
11:23 am
Last year your soft region was owned by a AAAA school that kept saying they were rebuilding with lots of soph and juniors. And they rebuilt right into a first round loser this year back in AAAA. What else do you need to know?
Lowndes may squeak by at home if they get a few turnovers, but Valdosta has very little chance at MAC (if Lowndes couldn’t win there why shoulc Valdosta?), and while MLK is probably not a top ten team, neither is Colquitt, and MLK is home.
Every year I hear three teams in the semis and every year one makes it. This year only Lowndes has a chance for the semis because we all know they don’t play bad until they have to go on the road. There’s really only Camden, NG, and a bunch of pretneders.
Go Newnan, MLK and roll MAC!!!
Anthony
November 17th, 2010
11:30 am
@poor.ole.lambert idk bout most overrated team in 5a but i think brunswick is most underrated team in 4a.
@Tiger4life Brunswick is a spread team who will put alot of points on you. Everybody remembers there great game with valdosta. Even tho they lost 64-62 in OT they proved they could hang. Our starting QB Chris Anderson has passed for 1800 yards and 19 tds and ran for 950 yards and 12 tds. In Valdosta game he went 32-39 340 yards 3 tds and ran for 195 and 2 tds. Then we have mr everything justin coleman a tennesse commit who had 850 recieving yards 700 rushing yards 3 kick return for tds 80 tackles and 6 int. 2 returned for tds. It should be great game friday night in fayetville.
Faith 3:16
November 17th, 2010
11:33 am
To GHSF Daily: Do you believe in God? With God any thing is possible Monroe Area is standing on the word of God. And keeping the faith if they do there part he will do his. There’s nothing to impossible for God Nothing even wining a state championship. God choose David to defeat the unbeatable Goliath. God like to take the impossible and make it possible. Don’t be surprise if you see Monroe Area in the state championship.
GO CANES
Tiger4Life
November 17th, 2010
11:58 am
@Anthony
Those stats are very impressive. Having a potent offense is good for the playoffs, jump on a team quick and go up by 2 or 3 touchdowns will almost guarantee a victory. But playing a stout defense can throw you off your game and cause a team and/or coach to get frustrated and start playing and coaching out of character. I had a look at your box scores and It looks as if you guys are hot one week and cold the next (last four games points scored are-22,38,14,48), is it due to injuries?
s/n— We all know if the other team doesn’t score they don’t win, and that my friend is why defense wins championships!
Camden74
November 17th, 2010
12:13 pm
@Gman57……..It’s obvious you know nothing about Camden Football!
Camden74
November 17th, 2010
12:17 pm
@footballfanatic…….I would never be so stupid as to believe any given team can’t be defeated on any given night! Everyone can be beat! You must not read most of the anti Camden post on the board. I would suggest that you go back and READ through the messages……
Anthony
November 17th, 2010
12:23 pm
@Tiger4Life yeah our defense has ben a lil shaky against the run. our secondary is real good hard for any team to pass on. But we sat some of our star players down in last few games bc of guaranteed playoff spot. What kinda offense does starr mills run? we have ben vulnerable to the wing t offense
Camden74
November 17th, 2010
12:25 pm
@!Faith 3:16……..Please, please, please! Don’t bring GOD into this conversation unless you’re praying for an injury free game! In my opinion, GOD could care less who wins a HS football game!
LSJU82
November 17th, 2010
12:30 pm
poor.ole.lambert, I see the line has changed again. Glad I locked in at Marist plus the five TDs since your line is down to 3 TDs and a field goal.
Overrated 1-AAAAA
November 17th, 2010
12:40 pm
Jammer, bksmith14 and the rest of you plowboys – Here’s my story. I had nothing against your region, I was glad they were representing the state so well, winnersville and all. That was until the disgraceful performance by team and the cowardly coach McP at Grayson three years ago. Here’s what I saw, and I saw it several times because I Tivoed the game. All star now at FSU piling on late and then running his mouth and waving his arms lik he actually made the tackle. Then Pemberton breaks said stars arm tackle on the crucial drive. Other DB taking vicious cheap shots, even post whistle on more than one occasion. This I believe, is what precipitated the fight. Then the coward McP stands there while his team storms the field looking for a fight. Lowndes lost the game, the fight, and all respect. These are 16 and 17 year old kids playuing a game and, hopefully, learning life lessons in the process. but at Lowndes you have undisciplined gangsta wannabes and the coach did nothing cause winning is apparently everything in Valdosta. Any self-respecting school would have fired him after that regardless of record. So I hope Newnan wins about 99-0 and Valdosta has a long painful ride home from the MAC back to loserville!
yo
November 17th, 2010
12:41 pm
Overrate …..You Overstate.
Check out last years playoffs and tell me who it was
that took region 1AAAAA out. Basically one team
and mostly on their home field.
yo
November 17th, 2010
12:43 pm
Overrate you also have a complex. And it is not overrated.
yo
November 17th, 2010
12:50 pm
Overrate it wasn’t any one from your precious and saintly (save you)Grayson area schools that took 1AAAAA out last year.
By the way…..sorry we gave you that 3 year complex.
hsfb
November 17th, 2010
1:09 pm
@yo
Thanks for the info about the visitor accomadations at McEachern’s stadium. I will be there and was wondering how the arrangements would be.
topper
November 17th, 2010
1:18 pm
gman57- Lol !!! Really!
Tiger4Life
November 17th, 2010
1:36 pm
@Anthony
I haven’t watched them this year, I’ll check out the game they have on Comcast against Griffin and get back to you.
poor.ole.lambert
November 17th, 2010
1:56 pm
@ LSJU82 … It’s all due to the current weather. Rainy – then 3 tds/1fg; clear skies – 5 tds
Will be a great game – Marist will be well prepared — can they stop the passing game / qb draws of Hooch? Don’t know – in my opinion – 2 of the best kickers in the state
78INDIANFATHERMCEacherN
November 17th, 2010
2:02 pm
bksmith14
November 16th, 2010
10:33 pm
south cobb loss to mceachern 56-21 and beat a pebblebrook team 24-21 a team lowndes beat 47-0. newnan beat south cobb 31-7 not that impressive. i can assure you that lowndes is better than woodstock, ridge, newton and stephenson all whom are teams newnan bksmith14
November 17th, 2010
11:01 am
@indianfathermceachern, you guys didnt beat lowndes, your clock keeper did!!!!!!!!! Game was over and boy also stepped out of bounds at 1 yard line on last play. I have watched it 10 times on film. Valdosta will take care of you guys fri night and if not you guys season will ed when you run into north gwinnett. Sorry you guys want be making it to the title game. Mceachern is good but not good enough
Dude do you go back and read some of the stuff you write?
Using your logic! Valdosta hasn’t played anyone other than Lowndes county this entire year.My logic wouldn’t suggest that.
Overrated 1-AAAAA
November 17th, 2010
2:29 pm
yo – No complex, Lowndes and their punk coach got the whipping they deserved during and after the game. The kids have moved on but the cause of the disease, the head coache at Lowndes, remains and that’s pretty sad.
I’m no Grayson lover but their coaching staff was on the field trying to seperate the kids not standing there dumbfounded like the cowardly McP. The demonstrated reality that this kind of behavior is tolerated in Valdosta makes it clear you’re really losers despite your record. Mark my words, Reid, who is blessd with all the talent in the world, is gonna have a bad ending and McP is partly responsible for not maintaining discipline.
Just more of the same sad culture, whining about winning at the MAC and getting cheated by the clock. There was a very good explanation of the timekeeping at that game in the AJC a few days later, but then you plowboys would have to be able to read!
cat doc
November 17th, 2010
3:15 pm
I predict an early exit for region 1 teams. Valdosta down to big Mc, Lowndes will get blasted by Newnan, Colquitt Co. will stick around to the semis. I have my Cats wining it all but I am just a fan. Camden will not be outcoached and the players have the heart and desire to see thier way through any obstacle out there. Time will tell.
cat doc
November 17th, 2010
3:20 pm
To all of the Lowndes fans, 3-0 Ware Co W, 7-10 Tift Co L. You tell me what that Lowndes team is up to?
God
November 17th, 2010
3:20 pm
I really don’t care who wins a HS football game. Now the cheerleading contests, that’s a different matter…
Fair Play Fan
November 17th, 2010
3:32 pm
I have said this before———the lost of one or two skill position players and there goes your season. NSWR lost to a superior Whitewater team last Friday. Their defense was flat——–Their QB was injured during the week, their primary RB had an ankle injury, and the one D-1 LB was waiting to be operated on in Birmingham. So, to all who (like NSWR) think they are a shoo-in to a state championship——–kool it! Don’t be overconfident to the point where you think you are invincible.
My Brother who teachers at Whitewater is driving me crazy—–oh well, I guess I deserve it!
Go Peach County!
Atheist
November 17th, 2010
3:51 pm
Faith 3:16, Camden 74: Jesus, Moses, and Allah don’t care either!
Bulldawg 15
November 17th, 2010
3:53 pm
@STMJGL …Florida also has nearly 3 times the amount of people Ga. does. So that does not compute with anything a Ga team does.
drock10
November 17th, 2010
3:56 pm
Im sure Tift is the best 5 seed of all time… im sure coffee just because they scored 22 on lowndes is the best 4 seed of all time. im sure colquitt which lost to TCC another over hyped team is the best 3 seed of all time because they played lowndes tough. im sure valdosta is the best 2 seed of all time because they played lowndes tough. im also sure ware county will win AAAA because they only lost to lowndes 3-0. SMH. Lowndes the 3 time defending champs will win it again this year 4-peat.
Bulldawg 15
November 17th, 2010
3:56 pm
WILDCAT FAN…i refferred to Camden because they have won titles recently you idiot. Sorry i get under your skin because of a post on a blog. Sad.
Nukieie
November 17th, 2010
3:58 pm
I’m just can’t understand why some people/posters hold on to ONE incident that happened 3 years ago. Then the same group of people/posted keep telling the South GA teams to “quit living in the past”. It seems that you are too living in the past as well. MAN/WOMAN what ever you are LET IT GO ALREADY.
drock10
November 17th, 2010
4:01 pm
We hear it every year in the pre-season as well as the post season region 1AAAAA will have 3 or 4 teams in the semi-finals as well as lowndes will win the title. YO and BK whatever your name is must realize the other teams now realize its all hype. no substance. anybody that knows football that has seen film on Lowndes knows they are a solid football team. Valdosta is the most talented team but will not beat McEachern and Colquitt Co cant stop anybody. Region 1aaaaa 0-3 this week.
Bulldawg 15
November 17th, 2010
4:16 pm
wow who really cares about South Ga. talk anymore. It always ends with we are wrong and they are right. This is a blog littered with people who just love to argue no matter right or wrong. WILDCAT FAN and Camden74 who cares? I don’t wake up every morning and think of all the ways i can say something bad or good about Camden like you claim i do. Lets just say that having a false perception, that winning state titles creates jealousy by everyone else in the state, is somewhat of a personal problem. But it is clearly evident on this blog all the time. Legitimately no1 cares about what Camden does outside of this blog. If you spent half as much time realizing that, as you do post(for pages and pages and pages) about Camden, then this would not be an issue. Always got a comment on everything and everyone no matter what school. You obviously know everything about everyone and what they think about, so why even get on this blog? I could care less than to argue with you or read your smart ass comments.
gman57
November 17th, 2010
4:21 pm
cat doc: apparently Camden got out-coached and out-played in the 2nd half last friday night. It could happen again this friday or the next by a team and coaching staff who are in the game for the whole game….
newnancougar
November 17th, 2010
4:24 pm
Ok please tell me what Newnan Cougar fan said this is our year AT ALL this year. If anything all Ive heard around this town is how awful we are compared to previous years and how were not as great as we should be.The funny thing is we should have won the region even without our best players in our worst year in several, we just didnt come out on top in two close games without our best offensive and defensive players( Chris Robinson and OD Pittman). Now were good this year and can make a run but anybody beating Newnan this year shouldnt be downing the program because this is a down year if anything. That being said I believe were hot enough to even make a run to the semifinals with a healthy team if we play well. I just hope we can get by Lowndes.
DSGB
November 17th, 2010
4:27 pm
I’m not sure if this was addressed in a previous post or not. I didn’t have time to read all 7 pages of this thread, but I did see alot of people claiming that Gwinnett schools are at a disadvantage b/c they have more high schools and the athletes are more spread out. This would be true if the Gwinnett area pulled from the same number of athletes population wise that Lowndes/Valdosta does, which is not the case. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I’m sure the Gwinnet area has a significantly larger population to pull from, so this argument seems to be a moot point.
Bulldawg 15
November 17th, 2010
4:36 pm
It is not a moot point because Gwinnett has 17 AAAAA high schools. How hard is this to understand? You can not compare Lowndes/Valdosta or Camden to Gwinnett because of smaller populations. With a bigger population, it would be a disadvantage because of MORE high schools. And the population in Valdosta is alot more than most people would think. Look it up.
topper
November 17th, 2010
4:49 pm
gman57 – . Camden moves on! This week all eyes here in Camden are on Hillgrove. No looking back.
Bulldawg 15
November 17th, 2010
4:50 pm
County’s do not win state titles, high schools do. Everyone knows that. I can see where people question Gwinnett’s title success because of the number of high schools. But the whole point of this is that the talent in Gwinnett is filtered out across the county. And A LOT of great players all over the area go out of district to play at Buford.
WILDCAT FAN and Camden 74 whatever….Here’s something a lot of people don’t know about Camden. They get players from parts of South Ga. and FL alllll the time. I have a VERY realiable source to back this up. I would not call it recruiting because their is no tution required, like at Buford. It is however something they get away with, not saying its illegal, because they are so far down south. Hmmmm i wonder what that influx of talent does every year. Simple. Wins Titles. One High School in the whole freakin county.
Really don’t care to hear a response from you two. Just hot air.
topper
November 17th, 2010
4:52 pm
Bulldawg 15 – Not trying to stir things up with you but in the end all these schools have 5A numbers of students to draw from. You really base anything on the surrounding population just the number of students at each school.
Touchdown T
November 17th, 2010
4:52 pm
Bulldawg15, I see the point that you are trying to make but it still does not make sense. The school populations in the Gwinnett schools are comprable to the S. Ga schools, so essentially your still pulling from the same pool we are. Yeah, Valdosta has two public high schools but the student count isnt different from whats in Gwinnett. I think the point that the other Bulldawg fan is the right answer. The Community. Coming up I grew up wanting to wear the Black and Gold. I leave in Gwinnett now and some schools have the community backing but no where near what I had growing up in Valdosta.
topper
November 17th, 2010
4:53 pm
Bulldawg 15 – Would love to know who your reliable source is cause he is not very reliable!
Touchdown T
November 17th, 2010
4:54 pm
live not leave… oops!
topper
November 17th, 2010
4:54 pm
Touchdown T – Should have waited to post you said exactly what I was trying to say.
OMacG
November 17th, 2010
5:25 pm
I have never, EVER, understood the logic behind the argument of “the talent is spread out” in the metro ATL school systems…it makes absolutely no sense. A school with 2,500 kids is a school with 2,500 kids; how could being the only school in a county make the talent amongst those 2,500 any better? Now, if someone wants to argue that the SUPPORT of an entire county is an advantage over what there is in metro ATL, then I’m completely on board. If someone wants to argue that such support behind a county school is a big-time motivator for the players and gives them a distinct advantage over a metro ATL “neighborhood” school…I’m also completely on board.
Camden74
November 17th, 2010
5:30 pm
@Fair Play fan……..All EXCUSES! Stop crying in your milk!