Best 2-loss teams: Early W-L records can be deceiving

Houston County and Warner Robins are playing tonight in a game that is unusual because the 3-0 team – Houston County – is probably the underdog to the 0-3 team – Warner Robins. Houston County coach Greg Robinson tells Chris Deighan of the Macon Telegraph that he has oceanfront property that he wants to sell to anyone that believes otherwise. (Warner Robins leads the series 10-1-1.)

 

At GHSF Daily, we see that the game will be close, but Robinson makes a good point – records can be deceiving, especially at this point in the season.

 

With that suggestion, we’ve decided to use the Maxwell Ratings to help us generate a list of some of the better teams whose records aren’t pretty.

 

We also list the toughest and easiest schedules to date, according to Maxwell’s computer. Note that schedule strength is the average of all the opponents, which means that playing the best team and the worst team is equal to playing two middle teams.

 

Class AAAAA

We think Walton or Parkview might be a better choice than Lassiter. The computer is still giving the Trojans points for 2009, which might prove smart.

 

Five best teams with two or more losses:

1. Newnan (1-2)

2. Roswell (1-3)

3. Collins Hill (1-3)

4. Lassiter (2-2)

5. Colquitt County (2-3)

 

Five toughest schedules:

1. Collins Hill (1-3)

2. Roswell (1-3)

3. Newnan (1-2)

4. Dacula (2-1)

5. Lowndes (4-1)

 

Five easiest schedules:

1. Groves (2-1)

2. Jenkins (3-1)

3. Johnson-Savannah (1-3)

4. Beach (2-2)

5. Luella (2-1)

 

Class AAAA

The computer loves Region 8-AAAA because of its 2009 playoff success. That’s OK, but we think Sprayberry (1-3) and Carver of Atlanta (2-2) would’ve been fine choices, too.

 

Five best teams with two or more losses:

1. Southwest DeKalb (2-2)

2. Salem (2-2)

3. Rockdale County (2-2)

4. Warner Robins (0-3)

5. Brunswick (3-2)

 

Five toughest schedules:

1. Kell (4-0)

2. Thomas County Central (2-1)

3. Hardaway (1-2)

4. Heritage-Conyers (3-1)

5. Habersham Central (0-3)

 

Five easiest schedules:

1. Lee County (3-0)

2. Northside-Columbus (3-0)

3. Richmond Hill (3-1)

4. Lithia Springs (3-0)

5. South Effingham (2-2)

 

Class AAA

Good group here. Note that these rankings were compiled before Thursday night’s games, which resulted in a victory for Troup and an upset loss for LaGrange.

 

Five best teams with two or more losses:

1. LaGrange (2-3)

2. North Hall (1-2)

3. Burke County (1-2)

4. Worth County (2-2)

5. Troup (3-2)

 

Five toughest schedules:

1. Gainesville (2-1)

2. North Hall (1-2)

3. Carrollton (4-0)

4. LaGrange (2-3)

5. Washington County (1-1-1)

 

Five easiest schedules:

1. Heritage-Ringgold (4-0)

2. Chestatee (2-1)

3. North Atlanta (3-0)

4. Cross Creek (0-3)

5. Columbus (1-3)

 

Class AA

We originally planned to list the best five teams with losing records in each class, but when we got to Class AA, we found there aren’t any real sleepers with losing records. They’re all 2-2. The best teams with losing records, for what it’s worth, are probably Screven County and Pierce County, both 1-3.

 

Five best teams with two or more losses:

1. Westminster (2-2)

2. Brooks County (2-2)

3. Pepperell (2-2)

4. Laney (2-2)

5. McIntosh County Academy (2-2)

 

Five toughest schedules:

1. Westminster (2-2)

2. Buford (3-1)

3. Chattooga (1-3)

4. Pierce County (1-3)

5. Carver-Columbus (4-0)

 

Five easiest schedules:

1. Temple (2-1)

2. Cross Keys (1-3-1)

3. River Ridge (0-3)

4. Jeff Davis (2-2)

5. Banks County (3-1)

 

Class A

Each year since 2005, one Class A team has made the semifinals after starting 1-2 or worse.

 

Five best teams with two or more losses:

1. Holy Innocents’ (2-2)

2. Twiggs County (1-3)

3. Wilkinson County (2-2)

4. Commerce (1-3)

5. Bowdon (2-2)

 

Five toughest schedules:

1. Mitchell County (2-1)

2. Darlington (3-1)

3. Twiggs County (1-3)

4. Irwin County (1-3)

5. Washington-Wilkes (0-3)

 

Five easiest schedules:

1. King’s Ridge Christian (4-0)

2. Mount Pisgah Christian (4-0)

3. Fellowship Christian (1-2)

4. North Cobb Christian (1-4)

5. Georgia Military College (1-1)

 

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7 comments Add your comment

EagleNationRising

September 24th, 2010
11:58 am

FYI: Greg Robinson is in his third season at Houston County and has a 9-14 record. He padded his schedule this season after back-to-back 3-7 seasons at Houston County, a program LOADED with talent (NFL talent). This is simply his way of creating cover for himself. This is the kind of spin that David Axelrod of the Obama administration is famous for.

If Robinson loses to this hapless Warner Robins team tonight, he and his family are going to pick up the phone on Saturday and call a realtor. I guarantee it! A HoCo loss tonight means that the HoCo job will open by season’s end. He knows it and everyone in Warner Robins knows it. The Demons of historic Warner Robins HS have scored only twice all season. The Demons were mercifully shut out (at home) by Peach County and roughed up in their own stadium by Douglas County…Dounglas County HS!!! It can’t get any worse for the Big Red of Warner Robins. Their fanbase has already quit on the season. ***Yes, as a Northside fan I am smiling.

Robinson barely beat the smallest HS in the county (Perry), as he coaches at the largest school in the county (Houston County) in a 10-9 struggle against little Perry HS. This is the kind of game that gets you run out of town. It is nice to seek cover via friends at the GHSF Daily. However, as evidence by the manner Valdosta sent Tomberlin packing a daily blog is not going to save Robinson job. Warner Robins is horrible!

The AJC and GHSF Daily continue to display a failed grasp of the state of football outside of metro Atlanta. Why don’t youi guys just hire someone to increase your depth of understanding in matters of football in Middle and South Georgia? Those are the areas that really matter when discussing the best in the state of Georgia.

EagleNationRising

September 24th, 2010
12:11 pm

How bad is Warner Robins HS this season? The Demons own two National Championships and five state championships. The Demons have not had a team to go their first two games without scoring since 1964. It has been over four decades since any Warner Robins football team has gone the first three weeks scoring 15 points or less.

As the AJC attempts to make this program one of the top 2+ loss programs in the state. I can assure every blogger on this site that Warner Robins HS football program is in a full blown STATE OF EMERGENCY! People who are a part of a rapid fanbase that cheers for the Big Red are in full panic mode. I am getting texts and emails from all over the nation. People are humiliated. This is one of the worst teams in Warner Robins history, no matter what Houston County coach Greg Robinson says.

It has been 46 years since a group of football players wearing uniforms that read Warner Robins with an “R” on their helmets have started a season in such a feeble manner. Don’t believe the AJC hype! This team is a borderline disgrace in our hometown. This is not (only) ribbing the Big Red. Go to Warner Robins and ask around. People are crawling under rocks. People are getting more and more livid every week with this team and program.

For Warner Robins posters, I can not imagine how bad it is going to be on October 1, 2010 after all of that jumping around and chest pumping from the Big Red community in last season’s City Championship. In 7 days, someone needs to place Warner Robins HS on “BLOW OUT ALERT” and “VIOLATION ALERT”

Houston County 10, Warner Robins 7 – September 24, 2010
Northside (Warner Robins) 56, Warner Robins 0 – October 1, 2010

Let the kids play

September 24th, 2010
3:38 pm

ENR – We got rezoned to Warner Robins from HoCo this year. Coach Robinson and his staff are good people but soft in the coaching department and it reflects in the way the kids have performed on Fridays . You have to work hard in the off season and in practice. When you do that you will view Friday night as PAYDAY or SHOWTIME like NSWR does. As for the Dixie Demons they run the program like the civil service ( seniority baby ). The Dixie Demons are better than they are showing but the better players are sitting on the bench. They work hard to win but you got to put your best 11 on the field regardless of how the GOP Booster Club feels or grade level. Some of it is a new offense, new defense and WEAK coaching. Their schemes are pretty good but they have not tweaked it yet to line up with what the kids on the field can do.

cane fan

September 26th, 2010
12:36 pm

Fitzgerald has not had an easy schedule…..play 2 5a teams and anyone in region 1AA is always tough calhoun and buford have easy schedlules… dublin jefferson and swainsboro very tough as well.

asa

September 26th, 2010
6:53 pm

gainesville,carver/columbus,westminister,lovett bufords 1`st 4 games fitzgerald would be lucky to win 1 of these

SportsFan31313

September 27th, 2010
5:22 pm

Greetings EagleNationRising,

If you think that Warner Robins are in bad shape, please read this article below. You will see how bad things are at Bradwell Institute. Click on this article below:

http://community.coastalcourier.com/blogs/section/4/

SportsFan31313

September 27th, 2010
5:24 pm

Greetings EagleNationRising,

Click on this article below as well:

http://community.coastalcourier.com/blogs/detail/3129/