The Georgia High School Football Daily’s Weekend Predictions: Who’s winning and losing in Playoffs First Round
By CHIP SAYE
For the AJC
Life in the playoffs isn’t easy for a No. 4 seed. It isn’t supposed to be.
Most of the 40 fourth-place teams that begin the playoffs tonight had to win a crucial game last week just to qualify for the postseason. All of them will be on the road this weekend, and all will face a region champion.
But there is reason for hope. Eight fourth-place teams won first-round games last year, including three each in Class AAAAA (Coffee, Woodstock and Lassiter) and AAAA (Hillgrove, Cedar Shoals and Mt. Zion-Jonesboro). And three of those teams went on to win in the second round, as well. Over the past five seasons, about six No. 4 seeds have won their first-round games each year. I’m picking only one this year, so I’ll probably be wrong on five or six of the 1 vs. 4 matchups.
Here’s a look at the one No. 4 seed I’m predicting will win, plus a few more that I think have a good chance.
Cook (at Northeast-Macon): The Hornets have been here before. Last year, they took their No. 4 seed to Appling County and came away with a 26-10 first-round victory. This year, they take on a Northeast-Macon team that finished in a three-way tie for first place with Henry County and Putnam County in a relatively weak Region 4-AA. Depending on how the tiebreakers had fallen into place, Northeast easily could have been a No. 3 seed. Cook’s 5-5 record is not impressive, but three of the losses were to the playoff teams from its strong region (Fitzgerald, Thomasville and Brooks County), and the others were to teams from higher classifications (AAAAA Tift County and AAAA Brunswick). I expect Cook to make it through to the second round and give Region 1-AA a first-round sweep.
Valdosta (at Newnan): The Wildcats’ next loss will be the final game at Valdosta for coach Rick Tomberlin, who was told after the team’s 57-15 loss to rival Lowndes that he won’t be returning in 2010. Valdosta hasn’t lost in the first round of the postseason since 1976, and it plays in the state’s strongest region. I’m going with Newnan, though, primarily because of its defense. The Cougars have allowed only 6.1 points per game and have recorded five shutouts.
Statesboro (at Lakeside-Evans): Statesboro isn’t used to being a No. 4 seed, but this Blue Devils team has not been as good as we’ve come to expect from Statesboro. Lakeside’s region went 0-4 in the first round of the playoffs last year, so its teams are suspect this time around. But Lakeside appears a bit better than those teams from last season and should hold off Statesboro.
Loganville (at Sandy Creek): The Red Devils were a No. 1 seed last year when they were knocked off in the first round by Hillgrove, so here’s their chance to turn the tables. Running back Storm Johnson leads a strong offense that is averaging 36 points per game. Loganville fell behind the leaders in Region 8-AAAA with its 1-2 start and had to scramble to reach the postseason. The Red Devils face a Sandy Creek team that has a history of early exits from the playoffs, but I don’t expect it to happen this time.
Flowery Branch (at Ridgeland): The Falcons have proved they can score, and that makes them dangerous. They averaged 44 points during the regular season and scored at least 34 in every game except their loss to No. 1-ranked Gainesville. The problem has been stopping people. The Falcons are allowing 25.6 points per game and gave up 51 and 49 in the past two games. Ridgeland had five shutouts in the regular season, and that defense will be severely tested tonight. But I’ll go with Ridgeland to survive.
Chattooga (at Lovett): The good news for Chattooga was that by being the No. 4 seed instead of the No. 3, it got to avoid playing Buford. Now it just has to beat the team that beat Buford 28-21. Chattooga is 9-1, its only loss to No. 1 Calhoun, and has been under the radar all season. I expect this to be one of the better first-round games in any classifications, with Lovett advancing to the second round.
Also: Look for perennial Class A powers Lincoln County and Clinch County to struggle with Trion and Marion County, respectively, before moving on to Round 2.
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The weekend predictions
Last week: 145-35 (.806); Overall: 1,497-377 (.799)
Class AAAAA
Winner–Loser
Camden Co.–Newton
Colquitt Co.–Westlake
Grayson–Marietta
Lassiter–North Forsyth
Lowndes–East Coweta
M.L. King–Jenkins
McEachern–Brookwood
Newnan–Valdosta
North Gwinnett–Centennial
Northside-W.R.–Chapel Hill
Peachtree Ridge–Kell
Roswell–Collins Hill
South Gwinnett–Etowah
Stephenson–Bradwell Institute
Union Grove–Windsor Forest
Woodstock—Dacula
Class AAAA
Apalachee–Starr’s Mill
Banneker–Rockdale Co.
Brunswick–Hephzibah
Clarke Central–Mays
Griffin–Harris Co.
Hiram–Chamblee
Lakeside-Evans–Statesboro
Marist–Sprayberry
North Clayton–Bainbridge
Richmond Acad.–Glynn Acad.
Sandy Creek–Loganville
SW DeKalb–NW Whitfield
Thomas Co. Central–Alcovy
Tucker–Dalton
Ware Co.–Evans
Westside-Macon–Mt. Zion-Jonesboro
Class AAA
Baldwin–Northside-Col.
Cairo–Woodland-Stockbridge
Carrollton–Creekview
Carver-Col.–Burke Co.
Eastside–Towers
Elbert Co.–Dunwoody
Gainesville–Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe
Hart Co.–Grady
Jackson–Monroe
LaGrange–Liberty Co.
North Hall–Ringgold
Peach Co.–Spalding
Ridgeland–Flowery Branch
St. Pius–Franklin Co.
Washington Co.–Troup
Woodward Acad.–Worth Co.
Class AA
Appling Co.–Vidalia
Brooks Co.–Putnam Co.
Buford–Pepperell
Calhoun–Avondale
Callaway–Riverside Military
Charlton Co.–Dublin
Cook–Northeast-Macon
East Jackson–Manchester
Fitzgerald–Greene Co.
Jefferson–Heard Co.
Jefferson Co.–Tattnall Co.
Lamar Co.–North Oconee
Lovett–Chattooga
Swainsboro–McIntosh Co. Acad.
Thomasville–Henry Co.
Westminster–Armuchee
Class A
Bowdon–Washington-Wilkes
Brookstone–Miller Co.
Chattahoochee Co.–Seminole Co.
Clinch Co.–Marion Co.
Commerce–Landmark Christ.
Darlington–Warren Co.
ELCA–Athens Academy
ECI–Hawkinsville
Greenville–Pelham
Holy Innocents’–Social Circle
Lincoln Co.–Trion
Sav. Christian–Irwin Co.
Twiggs Co.–Sav. Country Day
Wesleyan–Whitefield Acad.
Wilcox Co.–Treutlen
Wilkinson Co.–Bremen
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103 comments Add your comment
bulldog pride
November 13th, 2009
9:16 am
Mount Zion is winning state so how could they possibly lose to Westside Macon??? GAIN some faith in the bulldogs… have they not proven their point yet???
BullDawg Rick
November 13th, 2009
9:22 am
So. Ga.. I know lot of those ’smack talkers’ you are referring to & I agree that Buford need NOT travel to Texas or Ohio & spend 10’s of 1000’s of $$ on travel… All they need to do is stay in COUNTY & play the competition & they’d get “it” handed to them.. At AA the Wolves are great.. At AAAAA – they’d get punked by N & S Gwinnett, Collins Hill, Grayson, Brookwood & probably Parkview (even in ‘down years),
I could not believe all the ‘wet eyes’ after the Lovett game… LOL… But I really believe the loss has made them more hungry.. Their D has been off the charts .. They have great line play on both sides of the ball w/ Milsap & Houston…
I also agree that lot of the Wolves fans are front runners, even full of themselves to an extent.. That explains their absence from boards.. I go to some of their games as i have a niece that goes there.. Their facilities are second to none, especially for a AA skol …
Let me close with this: I hope all teams (win or lose) come outta the action unscathed in injury.
Tyler – Believe in God, & hit the books.. Unfortunately, this is an example of a kid that has/had higher aspirations on the gridiron…. But that’s on hold… Get that education & the world’s the limit..
Happened to Shiloh & UGA great Dave Pollack (broken neck) and can happen to anyone..
God Bless this holiday season…
Bulldawg Girl
November 13th, 2009
9:31 am
does anyone know whats wrong with gwinnettpreprally’s site?
it started yesterday…everytime i try to access the site it says the link was moved or never existed.
Sassy
November 13th, 2009
9:53 am
Go SWD!!
plowboy
November 13th, 2009
9:55 am
tyler can still play BASEBALL!!!!
SportsFan31313
November 13th, 2009
10:05 am
Rod,
Wishful thinking….. I applaud your virtuosity…..
ImaTitleTownBaby
November 13th, 2009
10:07 am
If Valdosta does move down, it would end up in a region (likely 1-AAAA) with Thomas County Central (1562), Bainbridge (1578) and Lee County (1735), and possibly central Georgia schools Jones County (1593.5), Harris County (1565), Columbus (1506), Upson-Lee (1435.5) and the three Warner Robins schools. That would be the most spread out region in the GHSA.
Region 1-AAAAA will also be waiting to see what the Savannah-area schools do. Only one school from the current Region 3-AAAAA is actually big enough to be a legitimate AAAAA school (Camden County is the seventh-largest high school in the state, with 2,876.5 students). But the public schools in the Savannah area – which have the size of AAA and AAAA schools – have long petitioned to play in AAAAA. If those schools continue to stay in AAAAA, Region 3 will remain much the same. But if they don’t, Camden could be forced to move to Region 1, creating many long trips for the school’s athletic teams.
The classification numbers were calculated by averaging enrollments at a school from the 2008-09 and 2009-10 school years.
The class assignments will not be finalized until later this month, when the GHSA will hear requests from schools that wish to play in higher classifications than the ones they are assigned to. The GHSA will assign teams to regions in December.
SportsFan31313
November 13th, 2009
10:49 am
ImaTitleTownBaby,
That is a great analysis…. You are probably right. More than likely right…
TENNESSEE VOL MOM
November 13th, 2009
11:05 am
LET’S GO WESTLAKE LET’S SHOW EVERYONE WE DESERVE TO BE IN THE PLAYOFFS. LET’S AT LEAST WIN TONIGHT AT HOME..LET’S GO LIONS SCRATCH THEIR EYES OUT…
azcat225
November 13th, 2009
11:12 am
Nothing personal against the other A teams, but I am going to be a big Greenville Patriots fan for the duration of the playoffs. Chip—outstanding story.
And may all of the players stay injury free!
SportsFan31313
November 13th, 2009
11:33 am
Enter your comments here
1-AAAAA Sweep
November 13th, 2009
11:39 am
hustle boi ceo AND kd To try and answer your questions about Tyler Hunter I must first say some things are protected by the privacy laws when it comes to talking about someone’s medical conditions. But I will say this, twice this year Tyler has had to leave a game with shoulder and neck “stingers.” From reports I’ve read, Tyler had an MRI in valdosta and is seeing a specialist in Tallahassee. He reportedly told classmates he is not playing tonight. That’s all I can say and can not quote informed sources. That must come from his mother or from him.
At Lowndes Tyler is a junior def. back, returns kicks, and is a backup wingback. His father starred at Valdosta, UGA and Tampa Bay. Tyler has also played QB for us in the past, and played it in a Tebow offense against Grayson last year.
Tyler has many scholarship offers, and dozens of colleges are interested in him. His speed is equal to that of Greg Reid and he’s about 6′2′ and weighs 215.
As another poster said, it’s in the hands of the Man Upstairs. Please everyone, lay aside differences, and pray for him.
hustle boi ceo
November 13th, 2009
12:00 pm
1-AAAAA Sweep,
thanks for explaining my question, the reoson why i ask is because my brother told me that he would be in the starting rotation for fullback at lowndes but he didnt tell me because somebody was hurt though.
Reeze
November 13th, 2009
12:04 pm
I see S Gwinnette upseting Etowah and Valdosta upsetting Newnan
SouthGARules
November 13th, 2009
12:04 pm
BullDawg Rick: Very good points. I agree with you especially on the facilities. They put several AAAAA teams in Gwinnett to shame.
Friday Night Patriot Screamers: I for one will be pulling for your team to win state. A tremendous story by Michael Carvell about Greenville, Coach Williams & his family. The man is definitely an inspiration & a wonderful outlook on life. Anybody that feels sorry for themselves should read this story & thank God for your many blessings.
Pops
November 13th, 2009
12:22 pm
Reeze – S Gwinnett is the higher seed, at home and favored. The upset will be when Etowah wins. I am predicting 20 -17.
Black is Back
November 13th, 2009
12:48 pm
GO INDIANS!!
NEWNAN
November 13th, 2009
12:56 pm
NEWNAN’s defense is totally stacked. Offensive is farther along this than expected with young players. RELOADED not regrouped. Valdosta beware of the COUGARs. GO NEWNAN !
SportsFan31313
November 13th, 2009
1:02 pm
Okay Class AAAAA teams Lowndes, Valdosta, Colquitt County, Northside Warner Robins, Camden County, Bradwell Institute, Peachtree Ridge, Grayson, McEachern, North Gwinette, South Gwinette, Roswell, and Woodstock. Lets get it on, and lets get it done……….
cowetatakenover57
November 13th, 2009
1:10 pm
valdosta who? smh to who ever think valdosta will beat Newnan tonight. 35-6 (Newnan)
lowndes co. is about to see one of the best running backs in the state of GA sat.
Pops
November 13th, 2009
1:15 pm
6 hours and 15 minutes. Sure wish the EP guys were in the mix. I need a countdown…Boom!!!
Wolverine2Blazer
November 13th, 2009
1:19 pm
D-town. Incase you didn’t fully understand the article we were that team last year. As you’ll see tonight there’s a nice new 2008 Elite Eight sign on our pressbox. There is no way that your being overlooked by Woodstock. Much less Coach O’B.
Release the FURY!!! Take ‘em to da Woodshed!
VIKING DAD
November 13th, 2009
1:27 pm
To cowetatakenover57………. Bring your rb to Lowndes and let him get a warm welcome to our defense. LOWNDES 42 EC 7.
azcat225
November 13th, 2009
1:35 pm
Correction to my previous post: Michael, tremendous and inspiring story about Coach Williams and his team.
randy prosen
November 13th, 2009
3:36 pm
It starts tonite. The Camden wildcats are coming to your town next. Believe in the PAW!!
JIm Dandy
November 13th, 2009
4:16 pm
Runor on the street is that Roswell’s senior QB quit after last week’s poor play leaving a junior (arguably a better player) and sophmore (promoted from JV). Upset in the making???
RSX (Former DeKalb Student)
November 13th, 2009
6:00 pm
Dunwoody over Bumble County, then Gainesville v. Dunwoody: Biggest game in AAA this year.
ETA: Watch your language on the blog. We had to edit your post. Thanks. — AJC Sports
Justafan
November 13th, 2009
8:57 pm
Valdosta up 9-7 at half.
Rumor–Valdosta coach going to Coffee HS next year.
Big Dirty
November 13th, 2009
9:18 pm
Whats the Buford score aint no repeat this year!!! Go Fitzgerald
AMHmom
November 13th, 2009
9:47 pm
I just got a text from someone at the Brookwood game. They won 20-10! Any word on the grayson game?
dunwoody
November 13th, 2009
10:53 pm
Dunwoody over Elbert 26 to 14.
wildcat alumni
November 13th, 2009
11:08 pm
Whatever happens, move down or stay in your current qualification, I love my wildcats. I will always support the young men who wear the black and gold. Thank you for a good season, let’s get ready for basketball, take it all the way this year, Rome and Sapp. Good luck to the rest of Region 1 AAAAA.
GAINESVILLEALLTHEWAY!!!!!!!!!!!
November 13th, 2009
11:55 pm
Gainesville 42-0
good job flowery branch 17-14
Goldenglove002
November 13th, 2009
11:57 pm
If you want to see horrible work from an officiating crew, look no further then the Kell-Peachtree Ridge game. I understand this is HS football, but never in my life have I seen such a badly callled game. I don’t know how they select refs for playoff games, but I hope for the integrity of the game that crew is not back on the field this fall. Kell should have had the upset, but since every official in the state seems to hate them they got screwed.
Want an example? someone tell me what you do in this situation when you are the ref. Right infront of you, a player from one team grabs another player by the facemask, slings him around and throws him a few yards. After the play is over. Personal foul, right? Well not tonight, apparently that is ok to do. I could go on and on about what went wrong, but I doubt anyone wants to here it. Way to go, refs, way to go.
MM
November 14th, 2009
12:35 am
Way to go Grady!! Even though the refs made some horrible, horrible calls, they still managed to win! Great game, guys!
Mhsraider09
November 14th, 2009
3:51 am
congrats to the grady grey knights! Your all alone now… *tear tear*
THOOD
November 14th, 2009
6:01 am
BALDWIN BRAVES……….THE SLEEPER….GO BRAVES!!!!!!!
Larry Legend
November 14th, 2009
7:43 am
Don’t sleep on Union Grove!!!
its the rematch of last years 1st Round UG vs. N.S. Warner Robins.
And UG has a pretty good squad this year and last time I checked N.S. Bearly won last year by a T.D.So it should be a great match up 2nd round.
More on the line! Let Go Grove!
Its Great To Be A Wolverine!
AVikingFan
November 14th, 2009
10:24 am
Union Grove some of you are my friends so please realize this advice is sincere. Perhaps your team should follow the advice some of my Lowndes friends tried to give Peachtree Ridge when they came down here in September. When your team go loads up and goes down to Northside next week, tell them “DON’T GET OFF THE BUS. TAKE THE FORFEIT AND SAVE THE BUT WHOOPING.” Seriously, like last year, next week could be a really good game. Good luck.
Region 1-AAAAA will go 3 – 0 next week.
Congrats to Woodstock, Region 5 AAAAA’s only winner. Guess it’s because of Coach Mike O’Brien’s 1-AAAAA background, huh? Hoya Chuck, Cannon Rules, HeadEast, etc. Ya’ll still want to ridicule region 3 as being “weak?”
I don’t think Lassiter with their high powered Hoover offense and “Give Up 30 to 40 Points a Game” defense can beat South Gwiinnett next week. Upset Special.
Stephenson, your team so full of “athletes” will be playing a Colquitt County team that has some too. Better not beat your chest too much. The Packers may make sausage out of you.
Newnan vs MLK – like two mules fighting through a barbed wire fence over a turnip. Neither makes it past the 1/4 finals anyway.
7
November 14th, 2009
10:37 am
Go GT!
Barbara Evans
November 14th, 2009
2:46 pm
SWD continues to rock the house. Longtime die hard SWD parent I wish the best of luck/God Speed.I have three daughters graduates of SWD and our love will forever be for SWD.redistricting cannot destroy that love. GO PANTHERS!! PANTHER PRIDE!! SWD Parent Alumni.
B. Evans
November 14th, 2009
2:50 pm
Enter your comments here
SportsFan31313
November 14th, 2009
3:16 pm
Congrats goes to Stephenson whom hammered Bradwell Institute in the first round of the playoffs. It comes to no surprise though. You will definitely have your hands full next week when you fact a powerful Colquitt County Football. You will know what South Georgia football is all about. So celebrate this week on your victory. But come Monday, you had better get it together.
SportsFan31313
November 14th, 2009
3:18 pm
UG,
Like I told you earlier this week, UG will breeze through Savannah Windsor Forest. Congratulations to you and your Team.
SportsFan31313
November 14th, 2009
3:19 pm
AViking Fan,
Like I said, Lowndes will score50 plus points on a East Coweta team. Congrats goes out to you and the Lowndes Football team.
SportsFan31313
November 14th, 2009
3:22 pm
Camden WildCat,
It goes without saying. Your points on the bard speaks for itself. For all of the doubters in North Georgia that still don’t think Camden County is a good team, you had better ask the Fans of Newton County, and Region 6-AAAA.
SportsFan31313
November 14th, 2009
3:22 pm
Sorry for the typos
Colquitt County Fans
November 14th, 2009
6:56 pm
The Colquitt County Packers
Go Pack Go
November 14th, 2009
7:56 pm
Packers will fly under the radar. Let’s have fun at Stephenson.
kcazman
November 14th, 2009
8:16 pm
Congratulations to the Newnan Cougars. What a great game! Anyone heard the ML King-Jenkins score tonight?