AAAAA playoff draw: Brutal for some
My pal Chip Saye sent me a mock draw for the Class AAAAA playoffs today, and it’s pretty interesting.
Here are some highlights:
Lowndes is projected to play at Camden County in the second round, which is widely known by now. But the winner would face another juggernaut in the quaterfinals, probably either McEachern or the Region 7 champion (Peachtree Ridge or North Gwinnett).
How’s that for a stacked quarter of the draw?
No. 1 Grayson and No. 4 Newnan also share a quarter, and a coin flip would determine which would have home-field edge if they play.
The third quarter figures to have Northside, Woodstock and the Peachtree Ridge-North Gwinnett winner.
The lowest quarter has the fewest ‘big-name’ teams. Stephenson is the highest ranked and would be seeded to play the Region 6 champ, Roswell or Lassiter.
I’ll post the potential matchups in other classes later this week.
Here is AAAAA, and note that I’m not sure I agree with Chip that North Gwinnett and Lassiter are winning their regions. I might have to pick Peachtree Ridge and Roswell. But Chip is killing me in the predictions this season. I’ll stick to rankings.
Newton at Camden County*
East Coweta at Lowndes
Brookwood at McEachern*
Walton at Peachtree Ridge
Valdosta at Newnan*
Bradwell Institute at M.L. King
Harrison at Grayson*
Collins Hill at Roswell
Kell at North Gwinnett*
Dacula at Woodstock
Pebblebrook at Northside*
Union Grove at Windsor Forest
North Forsyth at Lassiter*
Etowah at South Gwinnett
Beach at Stephenson*
Colquitt County at Westlake
*Regoin champion
This week’s rankings:
CLASS AAAAA
1. Grayson (9-0)
2. Northside, Warner Robins (8-0)
3. North Gwinnett (8-0)
4. Newnan (8-0)
5. Lowndes (7-1)
6. Stephenson (8-0)
7. McEachern (8-0)
8. Peachtree Ridge (7-1)
9. Camden County (6-2)
10. Woodstock (7-1)
CLASS AAAA
1. Griffin (8-0)
2. Westside, Macon (8-0)
3. Southwest DeKalb (7-1)
4. Sandy Creek (7-1)
5. North Clayton (7-1)
6. Hiram (8-0)
7. Marist (6-2)
8. Tucker (7-1)
9. Apalachee (8-0)
10. Thomas County Central (7-1)
CLASS AAA
1. Gainesville (8-0)
2. Peach County (8-0)
3. St. Pius (8-0)
4. Carver, Columbus (7-1)
5. Washington County (8-0)
6. Carrollton (8-0)
7. LaGrange (7-1)
8. Jackson (8-0)
9. Baldwin (6-2)
10. North Hall (6-2)
CLASS AA
1. Calhoun (8-0)
2. Fitzgerald (8-0)
3. Buford (7-1)
4. Jefferson County (8-0)
5. Charlton County (7-0-1)
6. Lovett (7-1)
7. Thomasville (6-2)
8. Westminster (6-2)
9. Jefferson (8-0)
10. Swainsboro (7-1)
CLASS A
1. Wesleyan (9-0)
2. Savannah Christian (8-0)
3. Lincoln County (7-1)
4. ECI (7-1)
5. Twiggs County (7-1)
6. Wilkinson County (7-1)
7. Greenville (8-0)
8. Miller County (7-1)
9. Johnson County (7-1)
10. Wilcox County (6-2)
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246 comments Add your comment
DaveDawg
October 26th, 2009
9:20 am
If offense is going to win the state championship, look no further than Lassiter. They get Roswell at home on Friday to decide the region championship, then (if they win) have a relatively easy trip to the semifinals. They’re coached by the “other” ex-Hoover coach and know how to win big games deep into the playoffs. Cobb County football has been taken to the next level – it could be Lassiter vs. McEachern for the state title.
U must be kidding!!!
October 26th, 2009
9:50 am
Apalachee Region 8AAAA champions, 8-0 and lose a spot in the rankings. This is a joke!!!!
allcrimson
October 26th, 2009
10:00 am
Hear! Hear! All hail the Blue Nation!
First accomplishment is to win 1-AAAAA region championship. (something large groups of 1-AAAAA told us we could not do “Play with the big boys”)
Then it’s one at a time to the AAAAA State Championship!
It’s Great To Be A Northside Eagle!
ac
Ed
October 26th, 2009
10:13 am
Marist did not get beat “badly” — was up 7-6 at halftime and the 14 point loss was not decided until mid-way in the 4th quarter. Was actually a close game.
I am surprised that Tucker remains in the Top 10 — got smoked by Marist earlier in the season and barely escaped against a Stone Mountain team that is not nearly as good as its 2 loss record suggests. I expect Tucker to get crushed by SWD, the same way that Marist crushed Tucker a few weeks ago.
eagleforlife
October 26th, 2009
10:22 am
Northside is looking to make it 5 wins in a row against the mighty Warner Robins Demons this Friday night!!
Warner Robins actually reminds me of Valdosta… LIVING IN THE PAST!! Northside has won 11 of the last 13 games… and looking to making it 12!!
Also, I most also say that Northside was told that we couldn’t hang in 1-AAAAA… and it looks as if we will be going undefeated and region champs… Wow!! Guess ya’ll were WRONG!!
=)
It’s Great to be a Northside Eagle! GOOOOO BIG BLUE!! Let’s get a DEMON!!
Tell the Truth
October 26th, 2009
10:23 am
Chip &/or Todd: I see you all have Union Grove beating Newton this week. Interesting. Considering that Newton forced Stephenson into overtime and only lost to MLK by seven. Stephenson just needed a half to put Union Grove away. Grabbing the No. 3 seed as opposed to being No. 4 is huge since the region is matched up against Region 3. This is might be the biggest regular season game that both UG and Newton have been in for a while. Big stakes to aviod a trip to Camden. A win by UG makes the season finale against MLK big because the winner gets to host a first round game, but I don’t think there is much difference from playing the Region 3 No. 2 or 3 team in the first round. The only thing is you get to be at home. Newton and UG fans lets here your take.
Mark
October 26th, 2009
10:25 am
C’mon yellowjacket – If Lassiter isn’t in the top 10 with an 8-0 record, Sprayberry (who was beat by Lassiter) surely does not belong
Dekalb Football Fan
October 26th, 2009
10:35 am
Ed you are a hater. Tucker is a top 5 program still. Can’t blame them for their region being so tough. Other teams in 6AAAA are stepping up. Stone Mountain would beat majority of the teams in AAAA. What football have you been watching?
Pirate Alum
October 26th, 2009
10:36 am
Stone Mountain isnt good and only lost to the defending State Champion and Runner up from last year. Look at their record and tell me who was supposed to beat them besides them two.
big j
October 26th, 2009
10:36 am
I could easily see 3 way tie between union grove – newton -and mlk what happens then someone please explain thanks
SportsFan31313
October 26th, 2009
10:41 am
This is Brutal….
Looking at my Region 3-AAAAA
Definitely Beach, and Windsor Forest, will be one and done………and maybe Bradwell Insititue ( Bradwell Insitute has 12 starters down, and five of them out for the season).
Camden County advances to the 2nd round and then lose to Lowndes County……
draycoach
October 26th, 2009
10:44 am
Get Real: Your comment on Buford or Charlton being the only teams that can win Class AA are way off. I’ve seen Charlton County play several times. The Indians have an explosive offense that can play smashmouth football or if need be win by throwing. Charlton’s downfall will be on the defensive side of the ball. The Indians can’t stop the run nor the pass with any consistency. Their playoff games could resemble the old WAC playing days with the first team to 50 winning.
Grayson Student
October 26th, 2009
10:47 am
my bad, i really do think mceachern is a great team… they sure have the offense to win state. I just think that once they play a good defense the deciding factor will be their defense, im just not sure they can stop some of the more stronger offenses
SportsFan31313
October 26th, 2009
10:50 am
Greetings EagleNationsRising,
You still have two very tough games you still have to play before claiming that Region 1-AAAAA Title. Warner Robbins is still very much a team to be reckoned with, and also Colquitt County. For this very tough Region of 1-AAAAA you had better take one game at a time. Those Warner Robbins Demons will definitely be looking for the upset along with Colquitt County.
Ed
October 26th, 2009
10:55 am
Dekalb Football Fan: Tucker in the top 5 — are you insane. Tucker barely beat a Stone Mountain team that lost by 29 points to Marist. Stone Mountain is better than it has been in the past, but a strong team would have pounded them. I am confident that Tucker will lose big to SWD, like it lost to Marist this year. This is just not Tucker’s year.
Just the Facts!
October 26th, 2009
10:57 am
Yeah, Ed, quit hating on Tucker. The Tigers have established themselves as a top 10 program like Marist. Remember what happened last season.
SWD outgained Marist 314 to 123, with Ken Malcome rushing for 182 yards, including a 74-yard touchdown in the first quarter.Matt Connors rushed for 43 yards and a touchdown, but Marist didn’t have a run longer than 16 yards. QB Andy Perez was 3-for-8 for 41 yards and had minus-31 yards rushing. All this according to Georgia High School Football Daily.
Face it, Tucker, SWD and Marist are the three opponents nobody will probably want to face in the playoffs. Stone Mountain could be a tough out this year. It all proves that Region 6-AAAA is probably the toughest 4A region in the state. And with basketball season around the corner, we all no 6-AAAA rules.
Carlos
October 26th, 2009
11:21 am
re Region 6-AAAAA, I think Todd is right re their relative shortcomings vs teams outside the region.
Walton squeaked by a Norcross team that has turned out to be a dissapointment, & I don’t see a quality win yet by either Lassiter (ok – they just beat Walton) & especially Roswell.
Until Roswell beats both Lassiter & Walton, I don’t see how they can be in the top 10.
If Walton beats Roswell & finishes #2 in the Region, then that side of the draw gets even more interesting.
the greast ever in the dekalb
October 26th, 2009
11:21 am
Stone mountainis going to suprise some people in the playoffs
ballboy
October 26th, 2009
11:24 am
I agree with PRF, MLK lost to Stepehnson and drop out of the top 10. But the great thing about it. We (MLK)should take care of our business and not worry about what everybody else think!!!
Doc
October 26th, 2009
11:36 am
This year will have more upsets in AAAAA than any previous year. Threre are too many good teams and very few great teams.
Doc
October 26th, 2009
11:38 am
sorry for the spelling error (there).
Ed
October 26th, 2009
11:42 am
Not hating, just speaking the truth. Agree that 6-AAAA is the deepest region of Georgia AAAA football and nobody wants to play the top teams in that region as part of the playoffs. But come on, admit it — Tucker is a litle down this year — even you expected a better showing against Stone Mountain. Tucker may win a game, or maybe even two, in playoffs, but you don’t really think Tucker has a serious chance to make it to the semis, do you?
Black and Gold24
October 26th, 2009
11:47 am
EagleforLife, ??? You guys are region champs? Wow! Don’t be suprised it Colquitt beat NSWR, and I believe they will. These guys are as good as anybody in the state. The Eagles have not won anything yet!
Black and Gold24
October 26th, 2009
11:49 am
ENR, Exactly how did WR turn the ball over too many times, and how could they have won that game? They were dominated! They moved the ball once against the stingy Packer D and fumbled out of the back of the Packer endzone.
Black and Gold24
October 26th, 2009
11:53 am
ENR, Exactly how did WR turn the ball over too many times, and how could they have won that game? They were dominated! They moved the ball once against the stingy Packer D and fumbled out of the back of the Packer endzone. One drive and one turnover, the other turnover was on a desperation pass late in the fourth quarter after the game was out of reach. The Demons simply got punched in the mouth from that start of the game and never recovered. I made the statement last week that these guys are as good as some of their 90’s teams, especially the defense. The state is finally taking notice of this team, although Todd Holcomb doesn’t place them in the top ten yet.These guys are good, and the NSWR and Colquitt game will be a classic. Do you still want to talk about WR’s football, or would you rather wait until after game 10?
Viking Slayer
October 26th, 2009
11:54 am
Northside,
People, people, let’s bring it back to this universe. This is your second year in 1-AAAAA and you got beat by Lowndes and Camden County. No surprise to most of us that you got beat early in the playoffs. Now, you might win a region title and you’re already putting the trophy in the case.
We’ll see how far you get. P.S. Grayson is in Gwinnett County.
Just The Facts!
October 26th, 2009
12:12 pm
First I’m affiliated with any of those schools and have a ton of respect for each as with Region 6-AAAA. If Tucker reached the semis, I wouldn’t be all too shocked because last year they lost of ton of players from the previous team and won a championship. There coach has really matured into a good head coach after cutting his teeth as DC at powerhouse Camden so anything is possible. Tucker may not have the big name players they have had in the past, but there is still a lot of talent and proud that runs through that community. A good draw in the playoffs, and they could be there.
Look at East Paulding’s team in 2006 that went through a very weak region and a weak playoff bracket that included Madison County, Rome and a Starr’s Mill program on the downturn to reach the semifinals.
So, I’m saying a Tucker playoff run with the right bracket is possible like a tougher playoff draw for SWD and Marist could spell an earlier exit. Hopefully, the latter will not happen and all three make it far. It would boost well if Stone Mountain could also get on a roll.
Tell The Truth
October 26th, 2009
12:23 pm
Big J
For the past 30 minutes, I’ve been trying to post a response to your question, but it wouldn’t go through. I’ll try again.
Personally, I still think MLK is going to be the No. 2 seed barring any major collapse. The Newton-UG game should be for the No. 3 and 4 seed, with the loser getting the trip to Camden.
However, if your forecast holds true with them all finishing 5-2 in the region, I think they will use the most common tiebreaker of overall record in classification. Meaning you put in all games against Class AAAAA teams, and the one with the best record takes the No. 2 seed and then the remaining two teams you use head-to-head record. If that is the case, MLK gets the No. 2 seed because they would be 6-2, win over North Cobb. Both UG and Newton did not play any other 5A teams outside the assigned region games. You would then take their head-to-head game and determine the No. 3 and 4 seeds.
Again, Region 2-AAAAA might have come up with some other tiebreaker format, but this is the most common used one. If anyone knows for sure, please inform, although I think it will not go that far.
savannahdawg
October 26th, 2009
12:37 pm
Still no respect at all for South Gwinnett?
Newton
October 26th, 2009
12:40 pm
This a huge game for the Rams@Union Grove. Everyone is conceding this win to UG but we match very well with them. I like the way the Rams have gone about business the last two weeks with a combined 59-7 showing against weak Douglass and Greenbrier teams. It shows the guys are focused and will be confident going over to McDonough. AJC has overlooked Newton all year but check us out: look who we have lost to. Stephenson, MLK, Alcovy have 3 LOSSES between them. Don’t be suprised if we sneak out of there with the upset. Even if we lose its been a great season, looking forward to playoffs and region re-alignment, Newton is going to be a beast pretty soon watch and see.
NHS Eagle Fan
October 26th, 2009
12:40 pm
This is one Eagle fan that is taking it “one game at a time”. While I hope to win these last two games (Warner Robins and Colquitt), I think anyone would be a fool to suggest either will be easy. I will say this. No matter what happens the rest of the way, 2009 has been a spectacular season for the Northside Eagles. At the beginning of the season 5-5 seemed like a strong possibility. With the group of retlurnees, next year looks very promising also, although it will be iin AAAA.
AVikingFan
October 26th, 2009
12:54 pm
Eaglenationrising – good comeback in the 23nd half last week. What’s the prediction for this week’s game with WR?
To Panola Road’s Finest – Marist is still around but MLK isn’t because there are more good teams in AAAAA.
AVikingFan
October 26th, 2009
12:59 pm
Eaglenationrising – I went back and re-read the “deal” you and HomeFieldAdvantage made last week, and it WAS a drink of choice for ALL the posters who show up.
Tell The Truth
October 26th, 2009
1:15 pm
AVikingFan: Good response, on the Marist-MLK argument. You could make a sound argument FOR and AGAINST MLK being in the top 10. I would image if Todd had a top 15 that MLK would be around 11-13. After you get past the first 11 teams in AAAA, then it is a crap shoot. Remember after Marist’s loss to St. Pius to begin the season, they did drop out until they got some good wins and St. Pius went on to prove they are a good team. Now, MLK has to take care of the business in front of them and they can be counted among the top 10 in the final poll after the playoffs are done.
Todd Holcomb
October 26th, 2009
1:16 pm
Re: Marist & MLK: Good question from Panola Road’s Finest. The difference is the depth in AAAAA vs. AAAA. In the highest class, there are some very good candidates waiting to take MLK’s place in Woodstock, Peachtree Ridge, Lassiter & Roswell. Also Colquitt County and South Gwinnett. All of them are reasonable Top 10 choices. So is MLK. But in AAAA, to be honest, it’s hard to find 10 teams that I really feel confident deserve to be No. 10. So Marist gets a break, you might say. The other issue is that history shows Marist and Marist’s region to be more reliable than MLK and MLK’s region.
Hornet Dave: If you believe that Camden is really a Top 10 team, then we simply have a disagreement about how to rank teams. Also, it’s not fair to say Camden simply has played ‘’three actual football teams’’ because those three teams (two of them at least) are very, very good. Those two would be favored to beat Roswell, Lassiter, Peachtree Ridge and every team that’s behind Camden in the rankings. Camden has played as one would expect a Top 10 team to perform. Camden doesn’t have any defining victories this season, but teams like Camden don’t need them at this point. Defending champions that are perennially in the Top 10 need defining losses before I lose faith in them.
Re: Sprayberry: This is a team that is probably as deserving of a ranking as the bottom half that are ranked. The different between No. 6 and No. 12 in AAAA is very minimal.
Re: South Gwinnett: Not being ranked does not mean lack of respect. We can rank only 10.
NHS Eagle Fan
October 26th, 2009
1:28 pm
AVikingFan…I’m not ENR but I can tell you for sure the Eagles-Demons game will be a close one. I think the team that can protect the ball best will win in a very low scoring affair…something like 10-7 or 13-10. I obviously hope that it’s the Eagles who win, but from a region stand point it doesn’t matter that much. We’ll still have to beat Colquitt OR not win the region, even with a victory over the Demons.
Jan B
October 26th, 2009
2:03 pm
Hey savannahdawg….I guess taking out Parkview, beating Grayson in every way but the actual score, and running all over everyone else they have played does not get South Gwinnett the respect they have earned….but trust me…..IT’S COMING!!
Black Angel
October 26th, 2009
2:11 pm
The problem is this.. Whenever a county or school is up for realignment within the regions most of the athletics if not successful in the larger regions most of the time drop to lower region to have success and compete for a State title. I am sure the prinicples, Ad’s, and coaches, already have this plan out. Re-alignment is up for next year.. Lokk at how many teams jump to lower regions and find success instantly.. let be known that Black angel told you this first…
grayram
October 26th, 2009
2:38 pm
Do Northside Eagles and the Warner Robbins Demons play their games at the same stadium?
NHS Eagle Fan
October 26th, 2009
2:47 pm
yes…grayram…just swap sides of the field each year. This is Warner Robins year to serve as home team.
Newton
October 26th, 2009
3:26 pm
Big game this week for 3rd place @Union Grove. We come in riding momentum from the last two weeks with combined scores of 59-7 against Greenbrier and Douglass. We match up well with Union Grove on both sides of the ball. Don’t see any reason why we can’t win this game. Union Grove is coming off two subpar performances, cmon Rams lets show them what were made of.
slalom1
October 26th, 2009
3:46 pm
Newnan vs. Valdosta in Round 1? Whew! Bad draw. As much as I believe in the Newnan Cougars, Valdosta is like a wounded animal. VERY dangerous. Reminds me of 1992 when Newnan undoubtedly had the state’s best team led by Derrick Stegall, then lost to Colquitt County (the #4 seed from Region 1) in Round 1. Do not think this 2009 Newnan Cougar team will repeat history. But still believe this is the toughest first round draw for a #1 seed.
Personality0905
October 26th, 2009
4:04 pm
Hey Panola Rd’s Finest and the rest of the SWD fans. Did you noticed that SWD hadn’t beaten Marist in many of times (years) and they a picture of the game and an ok article in the AJC BUT! when Marist wins against SWD then you’re just about reading from one cover to the next! What’s up with that? And Marist still in the top 10? You gotta be kidding!! But I’m not at all surprised, know whatta mean?
AVikingFan
October 26th, 2009
4:13 pm
NHS Eagle Fan – I doubt very seriously your team will have anything to worry about for the next three weeks at least. You match up really well with Colquitt’s strenghts, and you will take WR about 28-0, you might even “Valdosta-em” or Peachtree Ridge’em. Whip’em good so they’ll be sore the next week against us. (ha ha)
goober
October 26th, 2009
4:14 pm
Hey to the Warner Robins & Northside fans … also hey to ENR, the self-appointed guardian of prep football truth in Georgia whose predictions continue to crumble like a 2-week old cookie:
Big game this week guys and the spotlight is on your city. Just wondering which national TV network is carrying the game … you know, like this year CBS College Sports televised the Lowndes-Valdosta game, and last year ESPN televised the Valdosta-Lowndes game. By the way, our city/county’s old mantra of Winnersville USA was replaced last year when Valdosta-Lowndes County was named by ESPN as the winner of its very first “TitleTown” USA contest. As you might know, ENR, this award went to the one community in all of America which ESPN determined to be the winningest sports community in the United States of America. Where did Warner Robins end up in this contest, since I am sure they must have been in the running for it?
Special Alert Early Prediction: Warner Robins 14, Northside 10
Even More Special and Earlier Prediction: Colquitt Co 20, Northside 14
Finally this … Mrs. ENR, you must believe that your continued reference to Lowndes “County” High School is a way to raise the ire of Viking fans. Please be advised: Not only does it not work, but it is incorrect, inaccurate and just plain wrong. The official and proper name is “Lowndes High School”. Above all else, this is a very poor reflection on someone like you who never gets any fact or piece of information wrong, and who prides himself on absolute total perfection in everything she writes, especially when it comes to game predictions. Furthermore, it wastes your time, since you are so obsessed with your rantings against Lowndes “County” High School, that you must be typing that phrase at least 100 times per week in all of your monopolistic and bombastic postings. So, try writing the right thing — not only will it be accurate and correct, you will save yourself lots of time.
We anxiously await your next retort, as it is humanly impossible for you not to respond to any posters writing anything about your beloved Iggles of Snortside High School (Oops!).
AVikingFan
October 26th, 2009
4:23 pm
Slalom1 – I bet ????? (R2 – team 4), ????? (R5 – team 4) or ????? R4- team 4) would trade places with Valdosta all day long.
Todd Holcomb
October 26th, 2009
4:26 pm
Personality0905: A certain amount of space is budgeted in the newspaper for a game before it is played, and the writer sticks to that amoung of space no matter the outcome. If the AJC were biased toward Marist and against SWD, I doubt SWD would have been ranked No. 1 in preseason, not when Marist was coming off a state runner-up finish and was returning most of its starters.
AVikingFan
October 26th, 2009
4:31 pm
Goober, I’ve got three empty bleach jugs that I recently painted crimson, and filled’em with ENR brains (rocks). I’m going to give you one for that last post, to shake all you want to this Friday night. (Think about ENR when you’re doing it. ha ha) Look for the red F150 with matching camper top in the Silver Viking parking lot Friday.
goober
October 26th, 2009
4:57 pm
AVikingFan: Yeah … why would anyone want to have a drink (even a free one) with such an arrogant pompous Narcissus like ENR who makes his team so easy and inviting to pick on?
Once again: Warner Robins (my new favorite team in middle GA) 14, Snortside 10
Colquitt Co: 20, Snortside 14
Oh, the pain …
SanityRules
October 26th, 2009
4:58 pm
Slalom, I see what you’re saying. Valdosta with all it’s tradition would be an interesting draw but for Newnan ,it would still be a victory. AVikingFan ,your words were intended to insult Newnan but you need to worry about Lowdnes because I think you’re a second round team this year unless you get the #1 seed. Remember you got to score to win and Newnan don’t give up points.