A prediction: Republicans won’t shrink the deficit

In this election cycle, Republicans have made curbing federal spending a big part of their campaign. They’ve also pledged to cut taxes. And the two promises certainly sound good to voters.
So, if the GOP wins the House, as expected, what will happen to the deficit? Here’s my prediction: Two years from now, the deficit will be no smaller. It may even be larger. Why? Because Republicans won’t do much to rein in spending. And if they cut taxes, there won’t be enough revenue to fund the budget.
It’s simple elementary school math.
It might help to take a look at how the federal budget got to be such a mess. Justin Fox of the Harvard Business Review Group says:

In other words, the giant deficit is mainly the result of the collapse in tax receipts brought on by the recession, not the increase in spending. Nice to know, huh?

You can read more about Fox’s model here.
Republicans, aided by the rightwing communications machine, have persuaded voters of a couple of things that happen to be wrong. One is that President Obama has substantially increased spending on wasteful government programs. In fact, one-third of the stimulus was in the form of tax cuts. And the bank bail-out, which started under George W. Bush, has mostly been paid back — earning taxpayers a profit. The health insurance law will reduce the deficit over ten years, not add to it, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
But continuing to depress revenues with a huge tax cut for rich Americans will certainly make the deficit larger. That’s a fact.

409 comments Add your comment

NoBama No More.

November 2nd, 2010
9:23 pm

Nancy Pelosi your FIRED!! Ms Tucker you are dishonest and a disgrace to your chosen profession.

Kamchak

November 2nd, 2010
9:24 pm

Largest pickup of seats since 1948.

Why haven’t they fixed unemployment yet?

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
9:28 pm

Why? it is Obammys fault.

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
9:30 pm

Sarah Palin on Fox…I mean, could it be any worse? Hahahaha

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
9:34 pm

I mean, it is 2010, and Sarah Palin is still relevant? I mean, is there anything that screams failure of the Democrats more than that? Bwaaahahahaa.

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
9:36 pm

Sarah 2012….

Kamchak

November 2nd, 2010
9:47 pm

Sarah 2012….

Pleaseohpleaseohplease

N.J.

November 3rd, 2010
10:10 am

Of course not Cynthia. For the last 30 years Republicans have run on the slight of hand of cutting taxes while relying on traditional Keynesian deficit spending to keep the economy alive. Where they denied Keynes was by NOT raising taxes to reduce debt after the need for deficit spending is eliminated. Thats part of Keynes too. When you have a national emergency like war or depression, you raise government spending until it is over. Then you reduce government spending, raise taxes to pay off the debt, and when the debt is paid off, you reduce the taxes. Worked beautifully.

But what Republicans are now promising is no different than what Reagan promises. Cut taxes, increase defense, etc.

However within two years Reagan kicked off a wave of deficit spending to stimulate the economy that made FDR look like an ultraconservative. Between 1933 and 1941, FDR managed to create all those National Recovery Act programs and not

N.J.

November 3rd, 2010
10:22 am

Continued. For some reason your page posted my post without my hitting the post button.

For the last 30 years Republicans have distracted Americans by giving tax cuts, claiming the tax cuts were good for the economy, but at the same time MASSIVELY increasing government deficit spending. The tax cuts did nothing for the economy, Republicans knew they would not, so they HAD to go into government spending to do any sort of economic stimulus.

Reagan did 1.5 trillion dollars of deficit spending over 8 years. Bush 41, 3 trillion. Bush 43, 5 trillion.

The effects were mild, largely because the negative effects of their tax cuts (which sucked trillions out of the U.S. economy to be invested overseas) were offset by the stimulus of the deficit spending.

Anyone with a brain can go back fifty years, look at all the economic data and discover a single fact. Republicans are responsible for 84 percent of the increase in the size of government since 1960.

Johnson was the last president before Clinton to hand in a balanced budget.

Carter was the president who cut the most government jobs.

And over 50 years, Republicans have grown the total number of non defense related government jobs by about 330,000. Democrats by 58,000.

Republicans and debt. Every president from WWII until Reagan did NOT add to the national debt. They all inherited the debt from WWII and each president, Democrat or Republican managed to pay down some of that debt. Until Reagan, Out of the current debt 12 trillion is Republican, one trillion Democrat and the rest existed BEFORE REAGAN.

Republicans are making the same promises Reagan did. Tax cuts will HAVE TO BE FINANCED by borrowing.

If Obama LOCKED the Social Security Trust Fund by executive order, Republicans would be in a pretty pickle. They would lose the source for their tax cuts, which will have to be BORROWED.

Income taxes do not even collect enough to pay for total defense obligation. So Republicans are going to have to eliminate all Veterans Benefits to make any savings there.

Why havn’t they fixed unemployment yet.

The better question is “Why has the private sector, with record profits, not started hiring yet”
It’s not the government’s job to MAKE JOBS. That is unless you are for socialism and expect the government to seize the private sector and start hiring in it.

Obama has brought the markets up over 70 percent in 20 months. The private sector is making a huge amount of profit. The government has been denied the stick to reinforce the carrot of making businesses profitable again. That stick is to raise taxes on business if they do not start creating jobs with those profits.