A prediction: Republicans won’t shrink the deficit

In this election cycle, Republicans have made curbing federal spending a big part of their campaign. They’ve also pledged to cut taxes. And the two promises certainly sound good to voters.
So, if the GOP wins the House, as expected, what will happen to the deficit? Here’s my prediction: Two years from now, the deficit will be no smaller. It may even be larger. Why? Because Republicans won’t do much to rein in spending. And if they cut taxes, there won’t be enough revenue to fund the budget.
It’s simple elementary school math.
It might help to take a look at how the federal budget got to be such a mess. Justin Fox of the Harvard Business Review Group says:

In other words, the giant deficit is mainly the result of the collapse in tax receipts brought on by the recession, not the increase in spending. Nice to know, huh?

You can read more about Fox’s model here.
Republicans, aided by the rightwing communications machine, have persuaded voters of a couple of things that happen to be wrong. One is that President Obama has substantially increased spending on wasteful government programs. In fact, one-third of the stimulus was in the form of tax cuts. And the bank bail-out, which started under George W. Bush, has mostly been paid back — earning taxpayers a profit. The health insurance law will reduce the deficit over ten years, not add to it, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
But continuing to depress revenues with a huge tax cut for rich Americans will certainly make the deficit larger. That’s a fact.

409 comments Add your comment

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
5:44 pm

Selective Amnesia
November 2nd, 2010
5:41 pm

“..have a nice night.”

Yessirree, I do believe the results from tonight’s election will allow me to do so.

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
5:44 pm

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010

Hey, I thought you left and took your ball home?

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
5:47 pm

selective – you have some really large memory black holes – immigration law was attempted – which McCain & Bush supported – lucky it was defeated by the repub majority at the time.

Black Boortz

November 2nd, 2010
5:49 pm

“Because Republicans won’t do much to rein in spending.”

Of COURSE they won’t! Obama and the Dems made ONE GOOD gamble with that health care bill: Once the American public gets an entitlement, it’s virtually IMPOSSIBLE to take it away. There’s no way they’ll be able to curb spending in the areas of the budget that WOULD make a difference: ENTITLEMENT SPENDING! You try telling a senior citizen that they aren’t getting their Social Security; you try telling one of those “ghetto grandmas” (Mr. Deal’s words, not mine) that they won’t get their Medicaid coverage for the many kids they can’t afford to keep; try telling one of those seniors that hollered against government-run health care that their Medicare coverage will be cut. Yeah, good luck. The biggest problem we have is learning how to candy away from the child.

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
5:50 pm

My final predictions

Reps take the House but not by the huge numbers I’m reading about today.

Dems keep control of the Senate by 1 or 2 seats.

Deal wins without a runoff.

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
5:57 pm

A vote for Deal is vote for corruption and another 4 years of Elmer Fudd type policies. However, i believe the repubs will take at least 50 seats, and it seems Reid will lose. If anyone here has watched Mayer, you know that Christine ODonnell was died in the wool nut case, but darn good looking – a lot like Sarah Palin – although Palin is a true believer, and far more savvy than liberals give her credit for. If the repubs win the Senate, by Valentines Day, they better have a motion passed to repeal Obummer care. If the dems reject the Repubs efforts, the repubs have still delivered on their promise to shrink government – it is just the dems & Obutthead that is being obstructionist.

TheTruthHurts

November 2nd, 2010
5:58 pm

THE DEMS ARE ABOUT TO BE DESTROYED..and you have CT whining and crying like the Liberal Loser She is..LOL I LOVE IT>>>HEY CT DONT JUMP OF A BUILDING LATER>>>>LOL

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
5:58 pm

Everyone needs to realize that we must enact a wage equalization tariff, repeal NAFTA & shrink the Navy. That will be a start to balancing the budget. Get your budget slashing knives ready!

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
6:00 pm

Corruption or liberal values? Hmmmm….. WE WANT COORRUPTION! WE WANT CORRUPTION! CORRUPTION RULES MAN!

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
6:05 pm

I don’t trust exit polls, but ……

Arkansas: Boozman (R) defeats Lincoln (D)
Ohio: Portman (R) defeats Fisher (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) defeats Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) defeats Feingold (D)

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
6:11 pm

Tonight leg lamp, I won’t trust anything but the final word. And FNC will be the only network I watch. Unless it is a bloodbath and then I will put on msnbc and watch the mass suicide.

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
6:12 pm

Black Boortz

November 2nd, 2010
5:49 pm

Sometimes BB you just have to piss off the children and do what’s right for them.

TnGelding

November 2nd, 2010
6:14 pm

They’ll just spend on different thngs. Taxes are already too low to fund the government we have. With revenue dropping so dramatically, I’d initiate a check for compliance. The IRS needs to hire more agents. They would pay for themselves 100 fold. Of course we need to eliminate the IRS all together with a simpler tax code.

TnGelding

November 2nd, 2010
6:14 pm

…but let’s count the votes first.

Jimmy Carter

November 2nd, 2010
6:15 pm

To me this is not rocket science. 9 years ago, the Bush administration cut off a huge revenue source for our government via the Bush Tax cuts of 2001. In the meanwhile, they increased spending a whole lot through the 2 wars we are currently fighting and the Medicare prescription drug benefit program. Any deficit additions by the Obama administration pale by comparison. The huge deficit will go away, but not without letting the Bush tax cuts expire and ending these 2 hugely unpopular and fiscally irresponsible wars.
I’d be willing to bet the tax cuts may expire; on Obama’s watch so the republicans can shrilly shout, “we wanted to continue them, but Obama did not”. And in 2 years when the deficit starts to shrink they will try to take credit for that as well.

Blue

November 2nd, 2010
6:16 pm

“tax cut for rich Americans”. Way to go with the playbook, CT. For the last time…who pays the majority of the income tax?? I agree with the need to cut spending, and Bush was HORRIBLE at that aspect…but you go ahead and think that taxing more on the people that are already paying the majority of the taxes and giving it to others is going to fix things. We’ll take our ball and go home…

And yet...here you are

November 2nd, 2010
6:19 pm

Funny how a “liberal media” has been predicting republican victory for weeks.

TnGelding

November 2nd, 2010
6:26 pm

Blue

November 2nd, 2010
6:16 pm

Are we borrowing more than they’re paying? We all need to pitch in our fair share. Making the cuts permanent would create another $3 trillion in debt over 10 years. But eliminating the estate tax would produce revenue for all eternity instead of a one time shot. Spending cuts have to be done gradually. Getting the troops home form Iraq, Afghanistan and the rest of the world would be the number one priority in that regard.

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
6:29 pm

Jimmy Carter

November 2nd, 2010
6:15 pm

Jimmy, you were a dope in 1976 and a terrible president and leader. You keep the tax cuts and cut spending…NOW. It can be done and better be done quicly.

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
6:30 pm

Kere is my “k” for quickly.

Teddy

November 2nd, 2010
6:42 pm

Two years from now I hope you find yourself wrong and in a new career as being a “journalist” is not your thing.

Willie Lynch

November 2nd, 2010
7:11 pm

Wow! The Teabaggers have been forgotten about already.

RGB

November 2nd, 2010
7:30 pm

“Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ), Chairman of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, says the DSCC is already taking legal action in some areas across the country.”

Yep, those classy Democrats are at it again. If they can’t win at the (stuffed) ballot box, they try to win by suing somebody.

And some Georgians wondered why we didn’t want a trial lawyer for our governor.

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
7:30 pm

Yo willie, you gonna get tea bagged tonight. maybe not the first time nor the last time.

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
7:31 pm

RGB

November 2nd, 2010
7:30 pm

Good call RGB, good call.

Bwah hahahhahaha . . .

November 2nd, 2010
7:32 pm

I love it. You are one silly girl Cynthia. Your beliefs have helped put this country on the decline. No longer. America is standing up and saying people like you are wrong.

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
7:35 pm

Tucker will never admit she was wrong. She is like her President, she will blame Bush. That is what makes it fun to have her around. You need idiots like her to remind us how smart the normal working stiff really is. And the girl won a damn pulitzer!?

Kamchak

November 2nd, 2010
7:43 pm

It’s already been thirteen hours since the polls opened.

Why haven’t they done anything about unemployment

lawdawg

November 2nd, 2010
7:54 pm

Someone please tell me since the Reagan years during which years have the Republicans who have controlled both houses most of those years reduced government spending on a Federal level?

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
8:09 pm

Simpler tax code (income tax): No itemization. Just the following: All income from all sources added together. All citizens over 18 years of age must pay 2.5% of that income as a minimum tax. But, all adults over 18 receive a $25,000 standard deduction, then $8000 per child. Additionally, all citizens exempt 10% of their income. Once they arrive at that “adjusted net income” figure, that is multiplied by .17 – that is your required income tax. However, if the 2.5% on gross income is higher, you must pay that higher assessment. Example: Married couple with 2 kids, gross income is $100,000 – must pay at least $2500 income tax. However, the prcoess results in the following tax burden: minus $58,000 standard deduction ($42,000 balance), $10,000 exemption deduction ($32,000 balance), multiply by .17 leaves a tax bill of $5440. Plus of course all the other tax assessments. However, an 18 year old who earns $5000 in a summer would pay $125 in income tax also – so all adult income earners MUST contribute to the operation of the federal government. Let me know how that affects everyone – it is a very, very simple income tax equation – you could fire at least 50% of current IRS agents.

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
8:09 pm

I would say 94-2000.

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
8:15 pm

also, you must remember the Cheney affect – he likes to run a large deficit so he can enrich his bottom line at halliburton, just like Paulsen at Goldman Sachs.

Kamchak

November 2nd, 2010
8:32 pm

…you must remember…

Why, “must” I do anything you say?

pauly

November 2nd, 2010
8:39 pm

Eat it Cynthia. Get out your calculator and add up all those House districts that are showing up solid RED on the cnn.com map. AMERICANS DISLIKE OBAMAS HEALTHCARE PLAN.

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
8:55 pm

YESSS. We need to tax the people who earn the money, and give it to those who don’t. What a great idea!!!! We need to motivate people to do nothing!!!! How brilliant!!!!. I understand, you Democrats have it all figured out.

rep

November 2nd, 2010
8:56 pm

Cynthia is so anti-white, it shows so bad!!!!!

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
8:57 pm

You are right Kammy, you Must not do anything! You MUST not work, but you are entitled to the same lifestyle as those wo do work. Again, you do have the blueprint to utopia. Gawd, you guys are just SO smart, it hurts.

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
8:59 pm

Because, when we “Must” do someting, we are slaves. So, we “must” not do anything. Go Kammy, you tellem!

Chris Sanchez

November 2nd, 2010
9:02 pm

Ms. Tucker,

There isn’t enough money to fund the budget NOW! One doesn’t need elementary school math to understand that. In fairness, there wasn’t enough coming in to cover spending before the recession began either. Both the revenue side AND spending must be addressed. The GOP doesn’t want to talk about taxes except in the context of cuts and the Democrats don’t want to talk about spending except in terms of increases and more programs.

That elementary school math is why so many voted for candidates who otherwise would not get a second look. A great many of us are sick of of the endless growth of government. Giving money away is not the answer though it sure will buy votes. Tax cuts alone will not return the economy to prosperity though it too will buy votes. Today we have the opportunity to speak.

Your liberal views will not be changed by the outcome and many of us who consider ourselves to be conservative will feel in some way vindicated. Sooner or later we are going to have to agree to disagree on some things and find those things that we can agree on and get some work done for America. In my opinion, sooner is better than later!

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
9:02 pm

kamchak – you have the skin of tissue paper, just sniffing around for something to be offended about – you really are an embarassment to the pioneers of this country. PS: It is generally a figure of speech. enjoying the election returns so far, buddy?

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
9:04 pm

see you after the repubs take 55 seats or so. yuk, yuk, yuk.

Lady GayGay

November 2nd, 2010
9:04 pm

THe only thing the Repudlickans will shrink are heads, (what with all the witches, trolls, and ogres in charge of the Party.)

America gitz whats its deserves! I’m ashamed 2b an American again. I’m going to Wyoming, man.

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
9:04 pm

Pauly, No No No. Obammys plan is great! Just because nobody had read it does not mean it will not be great. You are racist, bigoted and ignorant. Just don’t call me names.

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
9:06 pm

Wait, are the repubs sweeping the elections? Are the Dems losing. NOOOOO, America is racist.

Lady GayGay

November 2nd, 2010
9:06 pm

I’m happy. It’s too hard to write satire when the democrats are in charge.

I’ve got a backlog of material. Just wait till they get a load a me.

Kamchak

November 2nd, 2010
9:06 pm

PS: It is generally a figure of speech.

Yep.

It’s called an imperative.

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
9:12 pm

We need Whoppie Goldberg in charge. Those republicans are just too goofy.

Contractor

November 2nd, 2010
9:12 pm

Tuck,

A little information I just received… Just found out your boy Barry is over in India at the moment running up about $200 million a day over there with his 1,000 person outfit he took. Boy is running like a scolded dog and tucking his tail on Election Day. What a patriotic guy. Wish he’d just stay.

Ted Sheckler

November 2nd, 2010
9:13 pm

Republicans rule, Democrats drool. This is just the beginning – in 2 years, Obama will be voted out! There is still hope for America, we just got to keep voting these scumbag Democrats out of office. Liberalism is a disease.

Mr Charlie

November 2nd, 2010
9:21 pm

Largest pickup of seats since 1948. RACIST RACIST RACIST. Keep screaming.