A prediction: Republicans won’t shrink the deficit

In this election cycle, Republicans have made curbing federal spending a big part of their campaign. They’ve also pledged to cut taxes. And the two promises certainly sound good to voters.
So, if the GOP wins the House, as expected, what will happen to the deficit? Here’s my prediction: Two years from now, the deficit will be no smaller. It may even be larger. Why? Because Republicans won’t do much to rein in spending. And if they cut taxes, there won’t be enough revenue to fund the budget.
It’s simple elementary school math.
It might help to take a look at how the federal budget got to be such a mess. Justin Fox of the Harvard Business Review Group says:

In other words, the giant deficit is mainly the result of the collapse in tax receipts brought on by the recession, not the increase in spending. Nice to know, huh?

You can read more about Fox’s model here.
Republicans, aided by the rightwing communications machine, have persuaded voters of a couple of things that happen to be wrong. One is that President Obama has substantially increased spending on wasteful government programs. In fact, one-third of the stimulus was in the form of tax cuts. And the bank bail-out, which started under George W. Bush, has mostly been paid back — earning taxpayers a profit. The health insurance law will reduce the deficit over ten years, not add to it, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
But continuing to depress revenues with a huge tax cut for rich Americans will certainly make the deficit larger. That’s a fact.

409 comments Add your comment

nofreecheese

November 2nd, 2010
4:13 pm

Virtually our entire political class is a bunch of liars and spendthrifts; don’t consider yourself some kind of oracle when your prediction inevitably comes true.

Kamchak's gerbil

November 2nd, 2010
4:14 pm

Gm – you haven’t replied – having trouble with your 4th grade grammar?

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
4:14 pm

Selective Amnesia

NAFTA was passed in 1993 by Bill Clinton. Do you even know what NAFTA is?

Black Belt? Sounds like Internet Tough to me.

EMMA

November 2nd, 2010
4:15 pm

When Clinton left office the country was in the black, we had a surplus. When Bush left office we were in the red, deficit. Soooooooo, who was it that got us in this mess? It sure wasn’t Obama, he just got into the presidency!!!! Still wet behind the ears!!!! Last time I checked Bush was still a Republican.

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:15 pm

Democrats and Republicans: GANGS OF AMERICA. Red vs. blue.

Choose your side and argue who’s dumber, more racist, or “better fit” to be in office. At the end of the day they are in bed TOGETHER.

Cranked Up

November 2nd, 2010
4:16 pm

“But, I never know facts to get in the way of the hate baggers arguments.”

Hey mindless mouth breathing liberal troglodyte: can’t you people come up with a more refined and cognitive epithet to snarl other than “hate”? Oh never mind – carry on with the mindlessness. Not that’s it’s going to do you any good at the end of the day today. {smile}

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:16 pm

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:13 pm

“care to comment on Jeremiah wright and/or the New Black Panthers? Thanks in advance.”

“Are they politicians? That’s the topic of discussion here. If the answer to this is “no” kindly entertain racist clamor with someone else. Thanks in advance.”

You didn’t say you heard that stuff from Republican politicians, you said you heard it from a guy in the audience at a tea party event. Are you stupid? Thanks in advance.

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:17 pm

@ Nothing: internet tough would be threatening to rip someone apart via font. Please get over yourself. if you are looking for a “my party is better than yours” fight I am NOT the one.

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
4:17 pm

4 more hours!

4 more hours!

4 more hours!

4 more hours!

…………………………………….

Marconi

November 2nd, 2010
4:17 pm

Tea Party:

Concerned about deficits from January 21st, 2009 to November 2nd, 2010.

A Patriotic American

November 2nd, 2010
4:18 pm

Aw, Cynthia, go back to smoking your pot and quit trying to be an economist.

duck feal

November 2nd, 2010
4:18 pm

Ragnar Danneskjöld

November 2nd, 2010
8:34 am
But, dear Granny @ 8:31, we would agree that Bush spent like a democrat.

No, Ragnar, Bush borrowed and spent just like Republicans Regan and Bush Sr. before him.. Where do you think the lion’s share of the national debt came from?

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
4:19 pm

EMMA

Please learn the terms. It keeps the politicians from making you look like a fool.

Granted, Clinton with a republican congress lowered the deficit, but we were waaaaaaay far from being in the black.

Go here: http :// upload. wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/US_Federal_Debt_as_Percent_of_GDP_by_President.jpg

Take out the spaces.

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
4:19 pm

Marconi
November 2nd, 2010
4:17 pm

Democrats = what deficit?

Libby

November 2nd, 2010
4:20 pm

Well duh – BO would veto anything they come up with!

NoShamSam

November 2nd, 2010
4:22 pm

It’s a historical fact that whenever there are large tax cuts massive amounts of income is generated for the government because the people pay less taxes = more spending money = more government revenues. Combine this with freezing social security, medicare and medicaid and budget cuts for all other programs (say 10%) for 5 years and both the deficit and national debt can be reduced.

Texas tea

November 2nd, 2010
4:22 pm

Selective Amnesia,

People are finally waking up. Everything has come crashing down on American citizens, and we all want something better. This country has entitled itself to nothing but success and no failures, and now that we’re failing, there is time for a change. Yeah, unfortunate that it has taken a complete wipeout of said economic markets, but it’s better to catch it now and want to change, instead of driving it straight into the ground and have nothing to build back. The Democrats haven’t done anything to help their cause or our cause since being in power. Argue it all you want, but the public has voiced their displeasure towards the current administration and the job they have done, or lack there of..

redneckbluedog

November 2nd, 2010
4:23 pm

Of course they’re not…all this election was about was sour grapes over 2008. Conservatives aren’t going to do anything they didn’t do from 2000-2008…but at least now, the anger will be out of their systems and we can move on to clear thought, and the American shift to the left will continue…2008 changed the game…large corporations and wealthy plutocrats are on their way out; they can go to China or to hell or wherever…small business, start ups, and the middle class are on their way in…!!! That is the only way forward in this economy…

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:23 pm

So wait a minute, I criticize the rethuglicans and I’m accused of hating whites, which is HILARIOUS all things considered. Criticize the Dems, and you’re a racist. Seems as though BOTH sides like playing up the race card

Chris D.

November 2nd, 2010
4:25 pm

Ms Tucker, I am not clear on whether you are saying the Repubs can NOT shrink the yearly budget deficit OR that they can not shrink the National Debt to wholly different things….

duck feal

November 2nd, 2010
4:25 pm

Scam: With taxes very low right now, with Bush’s still in effect and the stimulus tax cuts in effect, where are these massive ammounts of government revenues of which you speak?

redneckbluedog

November 2nd, 2010
4:25 pm

PS…tax cuts aren’t going to do it this time around…there’s no way to pay for them…like I say…kick the corporations and the plutocrats to the curb and we’ll be better off without them…they are good for nothing…nobody needs them…all they do is lay off people and ship jobs overseas…the government, small business, and the American people are all this country needs…

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
4:26 pm

redneckbluedog

So you think that small business is going to solve our energy, manufacturing and transportation problems? Little companies going to produce airplanes, trains, cars, ships. etc.?

Liberal land is a strange place.

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:26 pm

No, selective Amnesia, only your side plays the race card. You asserted that Clarence Thomas hates black people. You were asked by several here for proof. You have yet to deliver.

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:28 pm

redneckbluedog

November 2nd, 2010
4:25 pm

“…like I say…kick the corporations and the plutocrats to the curb and we’ll be better off without them…they are good for nothing…nobody needs them…all they do is lay off people and ship jobs overseas…”

Congratulations…dumbest post of the day!!!

Kamchak's gerbil

November 2nd, 2010
4:29 pm

redneckbluedog – did you just get laid off your job for a sh???y performance?

Scarecrow

November 2nd, 2010
4:30 pm

Tommy Maddox you are outta’ your mind — Our President would be a “dumb broad” — You need to ask Jesus for wisdom and understanding!!!

Rafe Hollister

November 2nd, 2010
4:30 pm

Bush was a piker in his spending compared to Barry. Barry has added more to the debt in two years than Bush did in 8 years.

Anyone else get a chuckle about the Bush Tax cuts for the wealthy we heard about for almost 8 years. Now Obama wants to extend them for 80 percent, who are poor and middle class. I thought only the wealthy benefited, at least that is what Sin-thee kept telling us. The figures I saw said over 80% of the actual money went to the poor and middle class. I thought rich folk got it all.

I just can’t believe the Dems would lie to us and say only the wealthy benefitted! Could it be that politicians and their supportive press are dishonest, goodness gracious!

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
4:32 pm

I’m telling you, you just can’t make this shlt up….

Obama backtracks on calling Americans ‘enemies’…

Biden rally draws 200 people in DE…

Dems in Bunker: No Public Events, Watch Parties for Obama, Pelosi…

POLL: Pelosi viewed favorably by 8% of independents…

REPORT: Casino Bosses Put Squeeze on Employees to Vote in Pro-Reid Effort…

Dems outspend GOP in House races…

Obama hits hip-hop radio, warns agenda ‘at risk’…

REPORT: US to spend $200 million per day on Obama’s Mumbai visit…

Coons Camp Expresses Turnout Worries in Delaware…

CHER RIPS PALIN: ‘A dumb woman is a dumb woman’…

CHer?……………BAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Scarecrow

November 2nd, 2010
4:32 pm

Four more hours!!! — If you are so unhappy — why don’t you “burn” your medicare card!!!!

Chris D.

November 2nd, 2010
4:32 pm

Oh and what was paid back from TARP by some banks(with interest) has been spent twice over again with AIG, GM, Chrysler, etc….No MONEY THERE!

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
4:33 pm

“Will Obama Face Left-Wing Primary Opponent? ”

Well, Carter had to deal with Ted Kennedy……….

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
4:34 pm

Scarecrow
November 2nd, 2010
4:32 pm

I’m not on medicare……..NEXT…..

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:34 pm

“You didn’t say you heard that stuff from Republican politicians, you said you heard it from a guy in the audience at a tea party event. Are you stupid? Thanks in advance.”

Fine, the new black panthers are idiots much like the “taking our country back,” gun-toting rebels. What the new black panthers have to do with ANY of this is beyond me, but I have done my due diligence and entertained a simpleton for the day. Now scram…

Sid Farcas

November 2nd, 2010
4:36 pm

All we want to shrink is the amount of democrats in power. Start at the tail and work towards the head. 2012, you are up!
By the way, I think it is funny how the call for Hildabeast is already coming from some corners of the dem party. Ahh yes, the next two years for dems is going to be interesting. Obama or Hillary? What shall we do?

wolfman

November 2nd, 2010
4:36 pm

Thank you, Cynthia “spread the wealth” Tucker…

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:38 pm

“No, selective Amnesia, only your side plays the race card. ”

What exactly is “my side” since you know so much?

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
4:39 pm

The tea partiers are dumb and dangerous? Let’s look at some of the mainstream participants in last weekend’s “Sanity” comedy show….

“Signs at Stewart/Colbert rally show Republicans with Hitler mustaches…”

“Rally Sign: ‘I masturbate to Christine O’Donnell’…”

“Comedians vowed no politics at rally; DNC recruits volunteers…”

“Organizers seek to ’strictly prohibit filming’ – on National Mall?”

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:40 pm

@ Harry and the “several others” who took the Clarence Thomas thing seriously: google ‘Uncle Ruckus’.

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:42 pm

I slam the Dems and the Republicans pretty equally. Why do the repukes think they are above reproach? Everyone who disagrees with you is not a liberal just as all of you aren’t racist. But keep up the good fight, idiots.

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:43 pm

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:34 pm

“Now scram…”

LOL…I’m supposed to be intimidated by your black belt I guess? Because surely you jest if you think what passes for your “intellect” scares anyone. Now go on back to your tatoo parlor down in little five points.

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:44 pm

“My party is better than yours! We win! We’re back in power again! Haaaa! *sticks tongue out* take THAT! Nanananana!”

Partisanship will surely destroy America.

Johns Creek White Boy

November 2nd, 2010
4:44 pm

Cynthia……I have a fantasy of you and Nancy Pelosi in a hot tub together with me.

Tyrone Jackson

November 2nd, 2010
4:45 pm

Obama is my Black Prezidents!!!!!

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
4:45 pm

Selective Amnesia
November 2nd, 2010
4:44 pm

You mean like when Obama said “we won”? Well then, I agree.

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:45 pm

Selective Amnesia, do you play for the Falcons? Because you can backpeddle faster than any defensive back I ever saw…

I read your links

November 2nd, 2010
4:46 pm

Cynthia, fancy that you did not mention that Fox’ conclusion was based on a regression analysis scenario in which he didn’t account for 200 Billion in TARP spending which skewed his gov’t spending numbers by 400 Billion. Sheesh, do you think we are this stupid that we don’t read your links? You are becoming too easy to discredit, but we still enjoy the game.

The Leg Lamp is a "major award", much like Cynthia Tucker's Pulitzer and Obama's Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
4:46 pm

Johns Creek White Boy
November 2nd, 2010
4:44 pm

If that’s your fantasy then I’d hate to see what your nightmares look like.

A dad

November 2nd, 2010
4:46 pm

Selective A – I just yakked. Thanks a lot….

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:47 pm

The Leg Lamp is a “major award”, much like Cynthia Tucker’s Pulitzer and Obama’s Nobel.

November 2nd, 2010
4:45 pm

“You mean like when Obama said “we won”? Well then, I agree.”

…or when Obama said Republicans could get in the back of the bus?