A prediction: Republicans won’t shrink the deficit

In this election cycle, Republicans have made curbing federal spending a big part of their campaign. They’ve also pledged to cut taxes. And the two promises certainly sound good to voters.
So, if the GOP wins the House, as expected, what will happen to the deficit? Here’s my prediction: Two years from now, the deficit will be no smaller. It may even be larger. Why? Because Republicans won’t do much to rein in spending. And if they cut taxes, there won’t be enough revenue to fund the budget.
It’s simple elementary school math.
It might help to take a look at how the federal budget got to be such a mess. Justin Fox of the Harvard Business Review Group says:

In other words, the giant deficit is mainly the result of the collapse in tax receipts brought on by the recession, not the increase in spending. Nice to know, huh?

You can read more about Fox’s model here.
Republicans, aided by the rightwing communications machine, have persuaded voters of a couple of things that happen to be wrong. One is that President Obama has substantially increased spending on wasteful government programs. In fact, one-third of the stimulus was in the form of tax cuts. And the bank bail-out, which started under George W. Bush, has mostly been paid back — earning taxpayers a profit. The health insurance law will reduce the deficit over ten years, not add to it, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
But continuing to depress revenues with a huge tax cut for rich Americans will certainly make the deficit larger. That’s a fact.

409 comments Add your comment

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
3:22 pm

A PREDICTION: Cynthia won’t find time to list all the things Obama promised to do, then failed to do. She reserves that for Republicans.

williebkind

November 2nd, 2010
3:22 pm

eddy

November 2nd, 2010
3:17 pm
You are clairvoyant!!

lovelyliz

November 2nd, 2010
3:26 pm

Shawny
That happened back in Jan 2009

What the

November 2nd, 2010
3:29 pm

@ Ragnar Danneskjöld So you’re interested in ONLY the non-military spending of the feds. Do you realize the military spending is 54% of the budget? If you want to go after wasteful spending you’ll find a lot more under that section than all others combined. Just because it’s military doesn’t mean it’s efficient, competent or wise. You cant see the forest for trees buddy.

George W

November 2nd, 2010
3:29 pm

HAHA it is about time CT spoke up. I was waiting to see what crazy comment she would come up with today. Today is the day of reckoning!

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
3:32 pm

Gator Joe

November 2nd, 2010
11:43 am

“Ironically, those working class people who are unemployed or struggling economically, and vote for Republicans, because they are blinded by their bigotry and ignorance, will soon discover they voted for people who are responsible for their current problems, and will only make things worse for them. They will have sent a message allright, at their own expense.”

Gator, nice attempt at belittling Republican voters. Question for you though…if you’re so damn smart, tell us why you need government to provide your retirement income, provide your health care, provide your job, and protect you from those evil corporate boogeymen, while the so-called bigoted and ignorant can do all those things for themselves? Thanks in advance.

Mike Nelson

November 2nd, 2010
3:32 pm

I wonder if elementary school math would have predicted the increase in capital gains taxes that were paid when the long term capital gains rate was reduced from 20% to 15%.

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
3:34 pm

Liberals are so funny…anyone who can save and invest for their own retirement and plan for their own health care must be a Nazi, racist, bigot, etc…all because Keep Up The Good Fight or Gator Joe says so!!! Awesome intellectual argument you guys!!! High five!!!

David Granger

November 2nd, 2010
3:37 pm

You’re absolutely right, Cynthia. I don’t believe the Republicans will shrink the deficit anymore than I believe “Obamacare” will pay for itself. (No matter how many times you’ve tried to tell us it will.)

Texas Tea

November 2nd, 2010
3:38 pm

One last ditch effort to try and swing some votes, aye Tuck? Do all the bad mouthing you want Libs, but you will realize what the American public wants by later tonight. And that is the same public that elected your party to majority in the House and Senate, not to mention the White House, so don’t get all furious and point fingers, cause your boys had their chance, and they couldn’t get the job done. Obama was the trendy pick in the presidential election. He was black, had an appeasing slogan, all of Hollywood campaigned for him, along with MTV, and young wannabe hip voters. A lot of stuff that didn’t add up to anything but a mad and upset country. If the Demmies pull off an amazing election day and survive, gosh help us, but I cast my vote, and will live with the decisions no matter how much it pains me, but I do believe we’ll be back to a clean slate tonight once the polls close.

Can't Believe this BS

November 2nd, 2010
3:39 pm

Typical government, tax receipts are down, let’s spend more.

George W

November 2nd, 2010
3:43 pm

Cynthia must have had a hard time sleeping last night because she knows the big bad repubs are coming! hahaha

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
3:43 pm

I am still in shock that Bush won a second term; EXCEPT: Kerry NEVER ran on his senate record. Thus, the American people noticed a dedicated flip flopper. The voters in the country are getting smarter every day. Eventually, both parties may be out of power – if they can not balance the budget, then start running a surplus to pay off the debt & reimburse the SS trust fund. Once all that is done, all this social justice that liberals are so ga-ga about can be addressed, at least a little – or, maybe we just slash our taxes!

George W

November 2nd, 2010
3:44 pm

Here is a good question. I wonder if a black republican ran for president what she would do???? Makes for an interesting conversation doesnt it?

Can't Believe this BS

November 2nd, 2010
3:44 pm

CT must get paid everytime she mentions the Bush Tax cuts. It’s funny how money that is not the goverment’s to begin with can be included in this discussion. Oh yeah, people that make over 250k do pay more taxes already.

Gm

November 2nd, 2010
3:45 pm

Poor President Obama actually thought conservatives whites were going to give him time like George Bush to turn this thing country around. HA Ha, you see the way tea bagers, conservatives are acting did not shock minorities in this country, there history always take over.
Back in April 2009, with 90 days in office the tea bigots were already marching downtown Atlanta so when the rest of the world hear you saying “we are going to take our country back” we know its a racist remark:

George W

November 2nd, 2010
3:48 pm

Gm……it is hilarious that you guys always bring up the race card. Get over it. All you do is inspire racism to become more prevelant on both sides.

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
3:50 pm

Angry As Hell

- -How many of you out there would be willing to compromise with “the other side” when one of its leaders makes the public statement that his number one job is to ensure that the Obama doesn’t have a second term?- -

I am hearing a lot of this kind of stuff. Since when did any political party actually want the opposition to have two full terms?

When Bush was in office, do you really think that Pelosi wanted him to be there for eight years?

Pal: Obama is just a man. He isn’t a God. It’s OK when Republicans don’t support him. It’s OK when the opposition wants him gone. It happens to every president that there has ever been.

PLAESE start facing the reality that Obama is not a God.

Jesus was a Liberal

November 2nd, 2010
3:53 pm

Jobs are magically going to fall from the sky and the economy will instantly be back on track “once the republicans are back in office.”

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
3:56 pm

GM

From the UAW from 2007

- -Take our country back
our marching orders: It was too long coming, but President Bush finally had to concede in January that things aren’t going so well for ordinary Americans. Even so, it was only after world markets began behaving badly in response to the U.S. credit crunch that the administration started talking about ways to pump some life back into the ailing economy.- -

So were they also being racist, or can only Republicans be racist for using that term?

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
3:56 pm

America is like that abused spouse that keeps going back to its abuser, even though they know it’s no good for them. How quickly we forget 2001-2008. Smh…

Contractor

November 2nd, 2010
3:56 pm

Gm,

Race card is the only card you have? With the lack of grammar you present, I’m thinking that’s the only motivation you have to comment on here. You’ll need to bring more ammo than that Gm, or you’ll get destroyed by anyone of any party with the slightest bit of knowledge.

I have a prediction too Tucker… The country will no longer continue to head in the wrong direction like it was.

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
3:57 pm

“The voters in the country are getting smarter every day. ”

You’ve got to be kidding me.

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
3:57 pm

Jesus was a Liberal

- -Jobs are magically going to fall from the sky and the economy will instantly be back on track “once the republicans are back in office.”- -

Confidence that the government isn’t going to screw you inspires economic progress.

Just watch what happens.

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:00 pm

George W

November 2nd, 2010
3:44 pm

“Here is a good question. I wonder if a black republican ran for president what she would do???? Makes for an interesting conversation doesnt it?”

I wonder what Cynthia would do if a republican president nominated a black man to the Supreme Court of hte United States? Oh, wait……………………..

Kamchak's gerbil

November 2nd, 2010
4:00 pm

Gm

November 2nd, 2010
3:45 pm
Poor President Obama actually thought conservatives whites were going to give him time like George Bush to turn this thing country around. HA Ha, you see the way tea bagers, conservatives are acting did not shock minorities in this country, there history always take over.
Back in April 2009, with 90 days in office the tea bigots were already marching downtown Atlanta so when the rest of the world hear you saying “we are going to take our country back” we know its a racist remark:

Gm – your grammar is sad – please take some of your usual guvment check and attend a writing class. Then conservatives won’t laugh at you.

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:00 pm

So can someone explain what “taking our country back” means if it doesn’t involve race? Because we allllll know racism just absolutely positively does NOT exist anymore.

The first time I heard this slogan was from a Tea Party rally aired on Fox News. The guy just so happened to have a confederate flag on his shirt, and a rifle. But I’m pretty sure he’s not racist or anything.

come on son

November 2nd, 2010
4:01 pm

Well one of the reasons a GOP House will not be able to keep their promises is the Presidential Veto. Even if they GOP takes control of the House, the margin will be a ways from overriding a veto. The sweetest irony that I believe will take place tonight is that the GOP will miss taking control of the senate by 2 seats (NV and DE) because Tea Party clamour prevented shoo in republicans from winning the primaries. The cherry on top will be the Democrat in Alaska winning the senate seat in the backyard of Sarah “you betcha, please watch my reality show” Palin because she backed a candidate who had no business running.

Rightwing Troll

November 2nd, 2010
4:01 pm

But we have 8 years as a concrete example of how they will run the budget. There is, and never has been, one whit of humility, nor any admission of complicity in W’s disaterous reign, even in the face of overwhelming evidence of failure with a paper trail and voting record to prove it. It’s gonna be more of McSame from the hate baggers and conservitards… And for this they cheer. Why do they hate America so much?

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
4:01 pm

Selective Amnesia

Very selective

When the Democrats took over Congress in 2007, unemployment was 4.7%. A full years later it had taken a year of incompetence from the democrats and still only risen to 5%. Then by the time Obama came it, it was in a nose dive.

Sure. We remember 2001 to 2006. Unemployment at less than 4.5%. People were working.

People do remember when the Republicans were in charge and that’s the entire problem for the democrats.

Johnny Fontane

November 2nd, 2010
4:01 pm

The fact that Cox Enterprises continues to pay you to write your crap is amazing.

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:02 pm

Mike Nelson

November 2nd, 2010
3:32 pm

“I wonder if elementary school math would have predicted the increase in capital gains taxes that were paid when the long term capital gains rate was reduced from 20% to 15%.”

No MIke…seriously…tax rates aren’t really about tax revenue, despite the liberal rants and bleatings to the contrary. No, tax rates are about wealth envy and punishing rich white people. Don’t believe it? Do a youtube search on reverend Jeremiah wright…

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:02 pm

Clarence Thomas hates black people, though. Try again…

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
4:02 pm

Selective Amnesia

I have heard it all my life.

Here is an article from 2007 where the UAW was saying it against Bush:

From the UAW from 2007

- -Take our country back
our marching orders: It was too long coming, but President Bush finally had to concede in January that things aren’t going so well for ordinary Americans. Even so, it was only after world markets began behaving badly in response to the U.S. credit crunch that the administration started talking about ways to pump some life back into the ailing economy.- -

So were they also being racist, or can only Republicans be racist for using that term?

Rightwing Troll

November 2nd, 2010
4:03 pm

But he loves the porn…

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:03 pm

Selective Amnesia…care to comment on Jeremiah wright and/or the New Black Panthers? Thanks in advance.

Texas tea

November 2nd, 2010
4:03 pm

Selective Amnesia,

Think outside the box a tad here, and realize take back our country from big government, and allow the people to have a say so. Just go take a nap, and tomorrow it’ll all be explained to you.

Rightwing Troll

November 2nd, 2010
4:04 pm

sure, they hate whitey… what else you wanna know?

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:04 pm

“Sure. We remember 2001 to 2006. Unemployment at less than 4.5%. People were working. ”

And then what happened? Care to finish the story for those of us with “selective amnesia”?

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:04 pm

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:02 pm

“Clarence Thomas hates black people, though. Try again…”

Just like you hate white people.

Rightwing Troll

November 2nd, 2010
4:05 pm

Of course the government is no bigger than it was in the years of 2000-2008, nor are taxes any higher. But, I never know facts to get in the way of the hate baggers arguments.

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:06 pm

@ Texas tea, so why 2009? Big government has been big spending for years. Big Spender Bush wiped a surplus out in a matter of months and poured billions into “liberating” the middle east. What was so significant about 2009? Why couldn’t we take our country back sooner?

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
4:07 pm

Selective Amnesia

Sure, I’ll complete the story:

Pelosi and Ried took over Congress, the people who actually spend the money. Spending went nuts and so did unemployment.

You are way out of your league here. If you want to defend the economic policies of the left, you had better head back to Salon because the conservatives here will rip you apart.

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:07 pm

@ Harry. I hate white people? Clarence has gone on record explaining his disdain for blacks. What gave you any indication that I hate whites?

Cranked Up

November 2nd, 2010
4:07 pm

In four years of Congress rule and two years of White House rule, more debt has been piled on to the deficit than ever before in history in the same time. Most of that debt was in a horse puck trillion dollar stimulus bill that nobody read and other nonsense spending waste by pure, unchallenged Democrat rule. This doesn’t even factor in that nasty Obamacare that the majority didn’t want and we were told would shrink the budget deficit – and now of course we know otherwise. And Ms. Tucker has the gall to say Republicans won’t stop spending like that? Shall we all put on our little propeller beanie caps too? Sheesh.

Oh – one other thing – how can the Democrats be for the Middle Class when they are pondering eliminating two tax deductions very important to said Middle Class: child credit and mortgage interest rate. Can’t wait to hear an Obamabot spin that one.

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
4:09 pm

Selective Amnesia

Care to offer ANYTHING to prove that Judge Thomas hates Black People?

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:10 pm

@ Nothing. Your font does not frighten me. Recall that I am the poster with a black belt. Do not threaten me with a good time.

What happened was jobs were shipped over seas en masse. Big Spender and his Wall Street friends are the ones who went nuts, and we were dumb enough to bail them out. How much tax $ have we spent stateside compared with what we’re spending in the middle east, oh great one?

Rafe Hollister

November 2nd, 2010
4:11 pm

Wondering what would happen with a Black female running as a Republican for president? Easy one to answer, the same thing that happened when Alan Keyes ran. I voted for him, but to Blacks he was an Uncle Tom. Condeleeza Rice was never respected in Black America as she was not from the Dem Plantation. Race matters much less than politics.

Gm: why is it that America voted for Barry overwhelmingly, but now they are racists. Lets see not racist in 08, but just up and turned racist in 10, makes no sense to me.

If Sin-thee is right about the Reps not reducing the deficient, which she probably is, it is because they will never get any budget cutting legislation through the Senate and ole Barry (whadda you think a stimulus is?)

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:13 pm

“care to comment on Jeremiah wright and/or the New Black Panthers? Thanks in advance.”

Are they politicians? That’s the topic of discussion here. If the answer to this is “no” kindly entertain racist clamor with someone else. Thanks in advance.

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
4:13 pm

Selective Amnesia

November 2nd, 2010
4:07 pm

“@ Harry. I hate white people? Clarence has gone on record explaining his disdain for blacks. What gave you any indication that I hate whites?”

I don’t have to prove you hate white people. You have to prove you DON’T hate them. Just like, in your mind, you don’t have to prove that Clarence Thomas hates black people. You merely assert it, then it’s his obligation to prove he doesn’t.

See how that works? Liberals are so easy to dissect.

I look forward to your proof that you don’e hate whites.