A prediction: Republicans won’t shrink the deficit

In this election cycle, Republicans have made curbing federal spending a big part of their campaign. They’ve also pledged to cut taxes. And the two promises certainly sound good to voters.
So, if the GOP wins the House, as expected, what will happen to the deficit? Here’s my prediction: Two years from now, the deficit will be no smaller. It may even be larger. Why? Because Republicans won’t do much to rein in spending. And if they cut taxes, there won’t be enough revenue to fund the budget.
It’s simple elementary school math.
It might help to take a look at how the federal budget got to be such a mess. Justin Fox of the Harvard Business Review Group says:

In other words, the giant deficit is mainly the result of the collapse in tax receipts brought on by the recession, not the increase in spending. Nice to know, huh?

You can read more about Fox’s model here.
Republicans, aided by the rightwing communications machine, have persuaded voters of a couple of things that happen to be wrong. One is that President Obama has substantially increased spending on wasteful government programs. In fact, one-third of the stimulus was in the form of tax cuts. And the bank bail-out, which started under George W. Bush, has mostly been paid back — earning taxpayers a profit. The health insurance law will reduce the deficit over ten years, not add to it, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
But continuing to depress revenues with a huge tax cut for rich Americans will certainly make the deficit larger. That’s a fact.

409 comments Add your comment

willie lynch

November 2nd, 2010
11:42 am

AFret,

Don’t be alarmed. That “racist” rant was an inside job.

Gator Joe

November 2nd, 2010
11:43 am

Cynthia,
Your prediction is accurate, in addition to doing nothing about the deficit, Republicans if they regain control, will once again allow Big Oil, Big Business, and the very wealthy to damage the environment and enrich themselves at the expense of the middle class, the poor, and all of our children. Ironically, those working class people who are unemployed or struggling economically, and vote for Republicans, because they are blinded by their bigotry and ignorance, will soon discover they voted for people who are responsible for their current problems, and will only make things worse for them. They will have sent a message allright, at their own expense.

left wing (the original)

November 2nd, 2010
11:48 am

Bring back “Babe Alley” to the Georgia Capitol @ 11:34

True. The deficit is currently projected at about $1.5 trillion dollars. The budget itself is not substantially different from bugets from the last several years. The difference is that revenue has decreased. After all, we’ve been in a recession for the past 2 years. This has depressed government revenue to the tune of almost a trillion dollars.

Here’s the thing to keep in mind; the high deficits started 30 years ago under Reagan, continued and expanded under Bush I. Clinton started controlling the debt by reducing the size of the military and raising taxes. Bush II increased our debt by lowering taxes.

Be sure and vote. And if you’re a republican, don’t forget they want you to vote tomorrow, to reduce congestion at polling places.

barking frog

November 2nd, 2010
11:49 am

Bush/Petraeus 2012.

Fleabyte

November 2nd, 2010
11:52 am

Why do I find it occasionally entertaining to read Ms. Tucker’s trite, little blogs, when they have the drawing power and substance of a cripple fight? Morbid curiosity, I guess.

markie mark

November 2nd, 2010
11:52 am

I posted something to the effect of this last week….and got no response. Zero.

This question is this…what do people on the left want? People like me, who are fiscally conservative, pretty libertarian socially, were also driven into the ditch by Bush. Everyone on here from the left has seen most of us conservatives agree that Bush did not act like we expected. I am not going to get into why he did what he did, because I dont care. He disappointed conservatives terribly.

But where do conservatives go from here? We hear about a group of activists who are determined to try and reign in government spending. We get excited about it because the Republican party damn sure hasnt. So the Tea Party grows. And makes it damn clear they are fighting both sides. And what does the left do? Attacks it and vilifies it at every turn. Snears at the mention of the name. Did you guys try to join? Apparently, from the posts on this blog, this is precisely what you want…deficit reduction, etc.

Ok then. Start you own movement if you won’t join ours. Name it the “Big ole ABC Party” if that makes you happy. But quit trying to destroy a movement that is trying to do what both sides say they wont. If you will not join with me/us, start your party and I will join with you. If you stay true to the principles of reigning in spending, it may shock you how many will jump on your bandwagon. But let us be fiscal first, and not get bogged down in the social issues, for god sake. We no longer have time for that

jconservative

November 2nd, 2010
11:57 am

Some of you are making comments based on wrong information. Here goes:

The FY 2009 deficit of $1.416 trillion was Bush’s last budget and he is credited with that deficit.

FY 2010 ending 9/30/10 was Obama’s first budget and he gets credit for that $1.294 trillion deficit.

This is the way the US government keeps records. The President that submits a budget to Congress in March gets credit for that budget. He owns it.

In March 2008 Bush submitted the FY 2009 budget to Congress and he owns it. In March 2009 Obama submitted the FY 2010 budget and he owns it. In March 2010 Obama submitted FY 2011, the current Fiscal Year, to Congress and he owns it.

The current National Debt is $13.669 Trillion (as of 10/29/10).

Bush’s first budget was FY 2002 introduced in March 2001. Day one of FY 2002 the National Debt was $5.806 trillion.

Obama’s first budget was FY 2010 introduced in March 2009. Day one of
FY 2010 the National Debt was $11.921 Trillion.

You can see the National Debt at publicdebt.treas.gov
Just hit the green button. You can also find out how to make a contribution to reduce the National Debt if you are really concerned about the National Debt.

At the site you can play around with the dates and see just who the culprits are on the National Debt. Here is a hint, the culprits are both Democrats and Republicans. I have been unable to find a single innocent president in the last 30 years.

But if you insist on pretending otherwise, so be it.

barking frog

November 2nd, 2010
11:57 am

Fleabyte

November 2nd, 2010
11:52 am
they have the drawing power and substance of a cripple fight?
————————————————————————–
Watching the election?

Nothing Is Free

November 2nd, 2010
11:59 am

Willie Lynch

Go here:

http :// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File: US_Federal_Debt_as_ Percent_of_GDP_by_President.jpg

take a look at that chart.

You can see where the Democrats took over Congress by the sharp increase in our deficit. But other than the first two Bush years of moderate growth, the spending leveled off until the dims took over.

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
12:04 pm

The Bush tax cuts, which I have benefitted from namely from the reduction of death benefit taxes, were NOT a wise idea – it is folly to reduce taxes while waging 2 wars, plus increasing benefits ala the medicare prescription legislation. Thus, to reduce the unsustainable deficit, you must reduce spending.

barking frog

November 2nd, 2010
12:04 pm

Obama will sign an extension of the Bush tax cuts in
order to keep his promise to not raise taxes on the middle
class.

WARRIOR FOR MY PEOPLE!

November 2nd, 2010
12:08 pm

ALL YOU HATERS THAT ARE TALKING BAD ABOUT OUR PRESIDENT FOR NO REASON NEED TO AX YOUR SELF IF YOU ARE BETTER OFF NOW THAN YOU WAS TWO YEAR AGO!

Joe The Plumber Too.

November 2nd, 2010
12:09 pm

Cindy, I don’t know if the Republicans will shrink the deficit, but will shrink is the stench currently coming out of Washington DC as the dumpocraps clean out offices and steal whatever furniture they can (oops my bad, that was the last dumpocrap President, slick willie the rapist, wasn’t it) and head on back home to sit on the boards of those evil rich companies they rant about. Good riddance dimwits, two more years and obozo can come join you losers.

Joe The Plumber Too.

November 2nd, 2010
12:12 pm

Funniest line I’d all day: Little old woman maybe 70 or 75 this morning at my polling place, who remarked to the gentleman passing out the I Voted stickers as she was leaving ” Now that’s change I can believe in”. Priceless.

Reality

November 2nd, 2010
12:13 pm

Republicans cannot do simple math…. The deficit cannot be reduced if we also reduce income (and for the federal government, that would be taxes).

If what Cynthia proposes is true, and the republicans cannot reduce the deficit, they will simply – as they always have – find a way to blame democrats.

@Barking frog – allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire is NOT the same as raising taxes. Bush put a temporary tax cut in place while the actual rates on the books did not change. Allowing these to expire means that the rates return to where they were – that is technically NOT a raise in taxes (no matter how the republicans spin it).

Also, this year the democrats and Bush did want to extend the tax cuts for the middle class, but the republicans held this hostage in Congress because they wanted a $700 billion tax cut for the top 2% income earners. This was not passed.

barking frog

November 2nd, 2010
12:17 pm

Reality

November 2nd, 2010
12:13 pm
@Barking frog – allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire is NOT the same as raising taxes.
———————————————————–
Tell that to the dude who gets a smaller paycheck.

Lee Jackson

November 2nd, 2010
12:31 pm

Last time I looked at my check stub, Social Security and Medicare is being deducted from my pay. The government isn’t paying anything. Will somebody help me with that.

willie lynch

November 2nd, 2010
12:32 pm

Nothing,

Thanks for the info. It looks like most of the Presidents decreased or slowed spending during election years. And let’s not forget the Bush administration did not include it’s supplemental war funding requests with it’s regular defense spending requests, thus skewing these numbers.
Look, the money is spent but it seems some don’t want to acurately assign the cost of this fiasco to it’s proper place.

Lil' Barry Bailout

November 2nd, 2010
12:37 pm

Republicans will work to shrink the deficit, but it will require the Democrats to compromise.

In other words, the Republicans will propose $500 billion in cuts, and the Democrats will have to compromise and agree to $450 billion.

See how compromise works after you lose?

guy

November 2nd, 2010
12:38 pm

CT is probably right, but she doesn’t want Republicans or anyone to shrink the deficit anyway.There’s a bad moon rising for all of us.We can argue with each other,dislike each other,or whatever but the damage of greed,lies,giveaways,etc.is simply taking it’s toll.Enjoy the trip!

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
12:48 pm

Reality is on a commune some where. It is not repub spin – the dems have an option to extend or not. If not, then they are responsible for increasing the citizens’ tax burden. However, by slashing fed spending as indicated previously, you will start to reduce the deficit. I would recommend a goal of at least 5% per year, when the economy turns around, increase this target to 20%.

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
12:50 pm

The repubs need to pass budgets with lower spending, let Obutthead veto it, then follow the gov’t shutdown in 95. This will pass the target to Obozo, and let repubs honestly state they slashed the deficit, but the tax & spend dems leader rejected their efforts.

Lil' Barry Bailout

November 2nd, 2010
12:57 pm

The difference between Republicans and Democrats is that, if the public support is there, Republicans will cut the deficit and shrink the government. The Democrats never will, because their power comes from the government sector. Republicans power comes from the productive sector.

Van Jones

November 2nd, 2010
12:57 pm

They had better get busy reducing the deficit or face getting tossed out on their collective hineys come the next election. The people are FED UP!

Lil Bush Bailout

November 2nd, 2010
12:59 pm

Lil Barry-
So how much did the government and deficit shrink from 2000-2006??

Angry As Hell

November 2nd, 2010
1:08 pm

jconservative @ 11:57am

Now that’s what I call excellent information. Thank you for putting numbers in there that clearly shows who “owns” what. It looks like there’s a lot of blame to go around, doesn’t it? Thanks, again!

HDB

November 2nd, 2010
1:08 pm

Lil’ Barry Bailout November 2nd, 2010
12:37 pm

“See how compromise works after you lose?” Didn’t work that way….remember when the Republicans lost….all they said was NO!! Democrats can do the SAME THING!! When the VETO cmes forth…and it won’t be overridden….THEN where’s the compromise??

There NEEDS to be some POSITIVE policies coming out of Congress…not just obstruction!!

HDB

November 2nd, 2010
1:11 pm

Lil’ Barry Bailout November 2nd, 2010
12:57 pm
“Republicans power comes from the productive sector.”

Like the WORKERS who MAKE things?? When their jobs are OFFSHORED by MANAGEMENT….and the Republicans support the MANAGEMENT moreso than LABOR…..

The people WHO do the production are shortchanged by those who MANAGE!!
Rethink……

False Evidence Appearing Real (FEAR)

November 2nd, 2010
1:17 pm

CT – What I don’t understand is why the Congress keeps dancing around the notion of closing un-needed overseas military installations and re-deploying those troops and resources. This past September General Roger Brady, the four-star general who commands U.S. air forces in Europe, said “We’ve got too many daggone bases,”.

Defense Secretary Gates has a proposal that would affect about $400 billion of the Pentagon’s total $700 billion budget, part of a larger effort to save money for new weapons programs and troops.

Speaking as a military brat who graduated from a HS in Zwiebrucken, Germany in the late 70’s, this question of closing down overseas bases seems so elementary. Whatever happened to listening to our Generals???

Angry As Hell

November 2nd, 2010
1:18 pm

When Republicans regain control of the House and possibly the Senate, they need to put Mitch McConnell in a box and not let him out. How many of you out there would be willing to compromise with “the other side” when one of its leaders makes the public statement that his number one job is to ensure that the Obama doesn’t have a second term? Does that sound like somebody who wants to sit at the table and try to work out as many differences as possible? If I were Obama, I’d veto any bill that Mitch McConnell endorsed….every single one. Obama needs to let Senate and House Republicans know that he will not sit at the table and reach agreement or compromise on issues if McConnell is sitting there, too.

HDB

November 2nd, 2010
1:30 pm

Angry As Hell November 2nd, 2010
1:18 pm

SHO — YOU’RE RIGHT!!!

Liberal Chicks are UGLY

November 2nd, 2010
1:38 pm

Here’s a prediction you can count on, this blog won’t be any more intelligent tommorow.

JDW

November 2nd, 2010
1:41 pm

Paddy O

November 2nd, 2010
11:18 am
“JDW – I would say he has exasperated the deficit, with exceptionally poorly planned and executed Stimulus – he utterly failed to deliver on his policy goal of 8% unemployment. Why? Obutthead did not know what he was doing with the trillion – just as would have been expected from a novice.”

From your comment I am guessing that you did not even bother to read the article referenced on Harvard’s findings referenced in the orginal blog post….why don’t you actually get the facts and then we can chat more.

http: //blogs.reuters.com/ justinfox/2010/10/25/whats-really-behind-that-1-3-trillion-deficit/

Liberal Chicks are UGLY

November 2nd, 2010
1:41 pm

So will the prisdent, if congress changes over, handle the change with dignity and respect, or will he stomp his feet and whine like a spoiled teenager?

I predict the latter. Never in history has there been a more divisive president. He really is that dumb.

JDW

November 2nd, 2010
1:43 pm

jconservative wrote:

“I have been unable to find a single innocent president in the last 30 years.”

That is a true statement, but there are those that are more culpable than others…lots of red on that list.

jconservative

November 2nd, 2010
1:49 pm

Lee Jackson November 2nd, 2010
12:31 pm
Last time I looked at my check stub, Social Security and Medicare is being deducted from my pay. The government isn’t paying anything. Will somebody help me with that.
——————

The Medicare deducted from your paycheck pays for Part A Medicare. When you go on Medicare and draw Social Security a deduction will be made (minimum of $96.40 per month) from your SS check to pay for Part B Medicare. Part D Medicare (prescription drugs) and Medicaid are paid out of the general tax fund, we borrow the money from China and Japan since no provision was made to pay as you go when those bills were passed.

Hope this helps.

Scarecrow

November 2nd, 2010
1:51 pm

Will someone please answer these questions? Do you think that Sarah Palin is smarter than President Obama? AND if yes, Does Sarah Palin have the answers to put people back to work? and Finally, Who would you trust to handle foreign affairs — Sara Palin or President Obama?

PS: If Bristol Palin is NOT eliminated tonight on DTS — there should be a protest!!!!!

Lil' Barry Bailout

November 2nd, 2010
2:14 pm

HDB

There NEEDS to be some POSITIVE policies coming out of Congress…not just obstruction!!
—————

I agree, and if the Democrat party is willing to compromise, there will be.

Lil' Barry Bailout

November 2nd, 2010
2:15 pm

Lil Bush Bailout

So how much did the government and deficit shrink from 2000-2006??
————–

You need to read my post again. Carefully this time.

casual observer

November 2nd, 2010
2:19 pm

TURN OUT THE LIGHTS THE PARTY’S OVER.

stop censoring the blog!

Dave

November 2nd, 2010
2:23 pm

“:@Barking frog – allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire is NOT the same as raising taxes. Bush put a temporary tax cut in place while the actual rates on the books did not change. Allowing these to expire means that the rates return to where they were – that is technically NOT a raise in taxes (no matter how the republicans spin it).”

Dumbest comment on the thread. Typical Dem double speak. Apparently, when your taxes go up on Jan.1, that will not be a tax increase – at least in leftist Orwellian speak. That’s right up there with saying that slowing the growth of a program is the same as cutting the programs budget.

Bush made the tax cuts temporary to get it past a Dem filibuster.

Halftrack

November 2nd, 2010
2:30 pm

CT, Yes Pres. Bush left the house on fire but Obummer & crowd have poured flammable liquids on the fire and now they have increased the debt 3 trillion dollars more. It’s a lot harder to put out that blaze now. Also the Prez. has veto power. Gridlock or some give & take to keep Americans from being on food stamps and have a pay check instead. Taxes come from pay checks, the more of them you have; the more taxes you get. It appears that Obummer likes food stamps; that way he can keep folks on the farm instead of them seeing Pairee.

OBAMA'S ENEMY (THE VOTER)

November 2nd, 2010
2:48 pm

AMERICA REJECTS SOCIALISM ! 11-01-10

OBAMA'S ENEMY (THE VOTER)

November 2nd, 2010
2:49 pm

AMERICA ACCEPTS FREEDAM (AGAIN) 11-02-10

Tommy Maddox

November 2nd, 2010
2:59 pm

Hey Scarecrow:

1. Yes.

2. Yes.

3. Most definitely yes.

joe

November 2nd, 2010
3:17 pm

Another prediction: Obama loses big in 2012

eddy

November 2nd, 2010
3:17 pm

Prediction: In 2012, 98% of blacks will vote for Obama.

Prediction: When Obama is defeated and shown the door, all who voted to depose King Obama will be callled racists.

Just helping CT get her column ready for 2012.

ATL Guy

November 2nd, 2010
3:18 pm

Give the people what they want: they want to vote for uneducated idiots with sketchy backgrounds? Then that’s what they are going to get. It’s just a matter of time before some of these incoming Republicans get indicted or impeached for financial shenanigans. Let’s start with Nathan Deal – the hole he’s in financially makes him an attractive target for companies looking to pass an envelope under the table in exchange for a favor. It’s just a matter of time before the Republicans regret the Tea Party and its lot.

Harry Callahan

November 2nd, 2010
3:19 pm

Angry As Hell

November 2nd, 2010
1:18 pm

“When Republicans regain control of the House and possibly the Senate, they need to put Mitch McConnell in a box and not let him out. How many of you out there would be willing to compromise with “the other side” when one of its leaders makes the public statement that his number one job is to ensure that the Obama doesn’t have a second term? Does that sound like somebody who wants to sit at the table and try to work out as many differences as possible?”

For those who believe, as I do, that the single greatest problem and single greatest threat currently facing America is Barack Hussein Obama, it logically follows that defeating his 2012 re-election bid is a necessary first step towards getting our country back on track.

And before you go calling me a wacko, we’re going to find out in the morning how many people agreed with me today.

williebkind

November 2nd, 2010
3:21 pm

Angry As Hell

November 2nd, 2010
1:18 pm
Obama has already went against the will of the people and he reaps what he sowed today. You want dejavu all over again…