Voters thinking about jobs, not Obama
It’s the economy, stupid.
James Carville’s old mantra rings as true now as it did when he tacked it to the wall of the Clinton war room in 1992. The results of last week’s gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey can be largely explained by three words: jobs, jobs and jobs. Exit polls from both contests show that voters rated the economy as their top concern.
Health care reform is a vital issue, as is climate change. (Carville’s sign also had a third bullet point: “Don’t forget health care.”) President Obama was right to press ahead with legislation to improve the dysfunctional health care system and regulate carbon emissions.
But nothing is more central to the immediate anxieties of voters than the economy, which is still raining pink slips. Job-seekers outnumber job openings six to one, and the official unemployment rate now stands at 10.2 percent. According to some economists, the government jobless rate minimizes actual unemployment, which may be closer to 15 or 18 percent. For the White House and Congress, then, creating jobs is Job One.
Despite the view on Wall Street that the deep recession has probably ended, the average American hasn’t experienced the return of stability, much less prosperity. Foreclosures continue unabated; credit is still hard to come by; employers aren’t hiring. So what if gross domestic product grew in the third quarter of the year? That’s meaningless to an out-of-work dad avoiding debt collectors.
You can hardly blame Republicans for trying to paint their victories as a referendum on the president’s policies. They chalked up impressive wins — especially in New Jersey, a deep blue state — and they’re using them to boost a dispirited base and rattle Democrats, who were already nervous about their prospects going into next year’s Congressional elections. That’s how the game of politics is played.
But the GOP knows a shaky economy, not Obama’s health care plan, is uppermost in voters’ minds. That’s why the Senate last week passed an extension of unemployment benefits 98-0, with nary a Republican “nay.” The bill also extended a tax credit intended to lure home buyers and shore up the lagging real estate market. A day later, the House passed the same bill.
So far, so good — but not nearly enough. The economy needs more government spending if businesses are to start hiring. Congress might also appropriate more money to help state capitals, which have met their balanced-budget mandates by cutting workers and trimming badly needed social services. That’s a vicious cycle which leaves individuals — and the economy — worse off.
What about the deficit? Well, some of the red ink will start to disappear when the economy rights itself; businesses and individuals will pay more in taxes, swelling government coffers. The recession is itself responsible for about 20 percent of the deficit, according to Michael Ettlinger and Michael Linden, budget experts at the Center for American Progress. Fiscal conservatives should take note of that.
If they’re serious about debt reduction, that is. Most of the Republicans now blasting the Obama administration for profligate spending were in power during the Bush administration, when the surplus was eaten away by tax cuts, two wars and a Medicare prescription drug plan. Since 40 percent of the deficit can be attributed to policies adopted during President Bush’s tenure, according to Linden and Ettlinger, it’s hard to take those Republicans seriously.
And Democrats would be foolish to listen to their no-government-spending mantra. It’s going to take more stimulus to juice an economy left very nearly in ruin by the banking crisis and the real estate crash.
Sure, it’s counter-intuitive to spend more with high deficits. As a beginning skiier, I had a hard time learning to lean forward to keep from falling. The natural tendency, as I swooshed downhill — fast and frightened — was to lean backwards. Fell every time.
This economy has fallen far enough. It’s time to lean forward.
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119 comments Add your comment
Common Sense/Block #23
November 6th, 2009
5:19 pm
Obama thinking about Obama and not jobs …………… !!!
bob
November 6th, 2009
6:17 pm
Obama and the dems are not creating alot of jobs but the ones they are generating are good public sector jobs. We all know we do not have enough government employees, good union dem voting employeess.
Tom Middleton
November 6th, 2009
6:21 pm
Cynthia, why did you close “A bad man, not a bad religion”?
Common Sense/Block #23
November 6th, 2009
6:21 pm
To bob:
You are right on ………………..
Let’s all sing together now ….
“Everyone stand up and holler for the Union
Let’s give the brotherhood a cheer,
Everyone stand up and holler for the Union
We ain’t hit a lick all year !!”
Common Sense/Block #23
November 6th, 2009
6:24 pm
To Tom Middleton:
Probably because I make people think by posting stuff like this :
Living in a free country, getting a free education, taking the military oath as an officer, military discipline, a physchiatric degree and common human decency could not disuade this terrorist from his evil deeds. That, my friends, it what we are up against.
The all “Japanese-American” 442nd Regimental Combat Team fought the Germans in World War II. I say we organize an all “Muslim-American” Regimental Combat Team (let’s say …… the 666th) to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan and see how many volunteers we get.
Most of the mainstream media last night wouldn’t even identify the Ft. Hood terrorist as a Muslim. But heck, the Atlanta Journal & Constitution won’t even give the race of a bank robber anymore.
The three ” I ’s ” – Uncontrolled “immigration”, the “intolerance” of Christianity and our Judeo/Christian roots and the growth of radical “Islam” in the United States are the three greatest perils to our Republic.
Tom Middleton
November 6th, 2009
6:37 pm
To Block #23
Unless you’re black, very intelligent, highly educated, very successful, very sexy, and changed your name, you’re not her. Sorry…
Joan
November 6th, 2009
6:37 pm
Cynthia, when did you get a degree in finance? You, like most of Congress, are completely incompetent to know how to fix the economy. In a free market system, you need to free up the market. What you do not do is reward the incompetents, keep the bums on life support, and siphon money off people who work hard for it. And yes, I have a degree in business, have taken finance and economics–and you, and most of Congress, are idiots. The people who vote for these idiots will soon learn that when you kill the golden goose, everyone dies.
Joan
November 6th, 2009
6:39 pm
By the way, your idiot Congress just voted to make sure whether a person was an American or not was not part of the census. That is a clear signal that Congress is hoping, by the 2010 elections, they will have passed an immigration reform act that puts all these illegals on healthcare, and allows them to vote. When we have the party in power that caters to the entitlement people, the government employees, and the dregs, we will become very like Nigeria. The only wealthy people will be the crooked politicians.
river
November 6th, 2009
6:59 pm
[ But the GOP knows a shaky economy, not Obama’s health care plan, is uppermost in voters’ minds. That’s why the Senate last week passed an extension of unemployment benefits 98-0, with nary a Republican “nay.” ]
Overall, a good article, but the above comment is incorrect. The extension passed because Majority Leader Harry Reid filed a cloture motion to shut down GOP stalling that had lingered for a month….ONE MONTH! On the first cloture procedural vote, there were 13 ‘nay’ votes, some of which were from Senators hailing from states with horrific unemployment rates (both of South Carolina’s senators were in this column). 30 hours later, another vote passed with 2 ‘nays’. The third and final motion sending the bill to the house had a single ‘nay’ (Senator Kit Bond from Missouri).
It is important to remember–and to tell all the starving and homeless unemployed–that there are some Senators more worried about ACORN funding and political statements than helping constituents. I hope those heading to the polls in future elections will keep this in mind.
Common Sense/Block #23
November 6th, 2009
6:59 pm
To Tom Middleton:
Cute, but I doubt she will answer you personally. Therefor, as “I” said, she probably closed it because of posts like this …….
“Every soldier killed or wounded at Ft. Hood should receive a purple heart. This was just another battle in the War on Islamic Terrorism.”
and this …………..
“An Army base staffed by thousands of highly trained combat soldiers and not even NCO’s or officers had the ability to defend themselves from a lone terrorist before local police arrived. Times have changed. Sounds like a wake-up call to me.”
“We can best honor and remember those who fell at Ft. Hood by ensuring it never happens again.”
Tom Middleton
November 6th, 2009
7:02 pm
Like I said, you’re none of those things…
river
November 6th, 2009
7:13 pm
Joan: I suspect that when you speak about ‘rewarding the incompetents’ and ‘keeping the bums on life support’, you are referring to Citibank, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, and I could not agree with you more. These bums are ’siphoning money off people who work hard for it’ (taxpayers like you and me) and being rewarded for criminal behavior and incompetence at the same time.
Why is AIG’s Joseph Cassano not being prosecuted for securities fraud? And what about Bank of America’s Ken Lewis?
Lewis sold BofA shareholders on the SEC-conceived merger of Merrill Lynch without telling them that the bank would not only swallow $12 billion of Merrill’s $27.6 billion in losses, it would also pay accelerated bonuses of $3.6 billion to Merrill executives. Lewis kept this information from shareholders before they voted on the merger–that is a crime.
TnGelding
November 6th, 2009
8:06 pm
The “average” american is doing just fine thank you. The only ones feeling the pain are the unemployed, small business owners and government tax collectors.
It’s a combination of the economy, the health care reform debacle and the unrealistic energy plan. Obama is also seen by many that voted for him as too much like Bush and not enough like Clinton. He needs to ground AF1 and get to work in the Oval Office.
TnGelding
November 6th, 2009
8:13 pm
Common Sense/Block #23
November 6th, 2009
6:24 pm
We aren’t intolerant to Christianity, we just want it to take its place among the rest of the religions, as was intended by the Founding Fathers, with no special privileges in our government facilities.
kayaker 71
November 6th, 2009
8:21 pm
Bozo is just another Chicago politician with a gift for gab and a narcissistic bent that will never be satiated. He cannot stand for someone to disagree with him…. Fox news…. and he continually demonstrates to all of us how shallow he is and how much he is in over his head. He is way over his head, good people. When will you admit that we have elected the wrong person. It is painfully obvious to all who can breathe and read that we have a person at the helm who cannot cope with the problems facing him. And meanwhile, America is vulnerable.
Real
November 6th, 2009
8:38 pm
It’s going to take more stimulus to juice an economy left very nearly in ruin by the banking crisis and the real estate crash. SPEND, SPEND, SPEND!!
Dems continue to think they can do as they wish with OUR money!!!!
Jackie
November 6th, 2009
8:59 pm
It’s strange how those that complain about “our money” and “our taxes” never want to acknowledge those dollars are needed to finance the government. Have they ever considered the “free market” is a collection of rules and regulations that help the economy work in an efficient manner.
Without the rules being in place, how does business play the game? They(complainers about taxes) do not understand “the scorecard for business is the bottom line.” How does business make the bottom line seem healthy when they do not have the customers with disposable income? They immediately impact their bottom line by firing the workers who make enough to pay their obligations and have enough disposable income to buy other goods and services.
If one only makes enough to meet present obligations, that leaves the economy in a problematic state. Without growth, our business model does not work, therefore, the economy goes through realignment while a new business model is created.
Now, what role should the government play in our economic well-being?
Shananeeeeee Fananeeeeeeee
November 6th, 2009
9:13 pm
“I promise as President I will give a $3,000 tax credit to buisnesses for each additional full-time employee hired.” – Barack Obama. “You Lie” – Joe Wilson
mmmm, mmmm, mmmm, Barack the LIAR Obama
November 6th, 2009
9:18 pm
Wow, what would Cynthia say if the dems had won. Let’s review:
BROKEN campaign promises and bringing change to Washington
• Health Care reform by Labor Day, Oct, Christmas, end of the year, NOT
• the White House is NOT for sale
• Transparency
• bipartisan support
• close Gitmo
• Timmy the TAX CHEAT Geitner
• ACORN
• bring the boys home from Iraq, send them to Afghanistan
• find Osama bin Laden
• NO lobbyist on the White House staff
• all bills put on line so the public can read them first
• no tax increase for anyone making less than $250K
• and on, and on, and on……let’s say it again, mmm, mmm, mmm Barack the LIAR Obama
Jack
November 6th, 2009
9:46 pm
I’m a voter and I am thinking about Obama.
John Galt Jr.
November 6th, 2009
9:47 pm
Right, lets spend our way out of trouble, then tax the poor saps that work. How about a novel idea. Cut capital gains taxes to 0%. Cut income taxes. Can the cap and trade tax crap. Can the healthcare spend. Send freeloading illegal immigrants home. Can the Federal Dept. of Education, HUD, Agriculture, and let the states manage these programs at a state level. Cut Federal spending to less than what is brought in. Then finally enact the Fair Tax. Put the power of the economy back into the hands of what made America great, the individual, not Government. Oh one more thing, hows that Change thing working for you? While some Americans are sitting on their fat asses hoping, the rest of us are DOING.
Joan
November 6th, 2009
10:10 pm
You rock, John Galt Jr.
cmac
November 6th, 2009
10:34 pm
America’s first half white president has proven to be a failure less than 1 year into his term. May he continue to fail!
cmac
November 6th, 2009
10:40 pm
Noticed the comments have been cut-off concerning your drival about Ft. Hood. OF COURSE IT IS A BAD RELIGION!!!!! How many more terrorist acts need to be committed for the greater good of islam before you idoits wake up to the fact that it is a BAD RELIGION!!!!! Read the koran & you will see!
cmac
November 6th, 2009
10:43 pm
ALLAHU AKBAR – where have we heard that shreik before? Oh that’s right, MUSLIM TERRORISTS!!! islam is a BAD RELIGION!!!!
Tom Middleton
November 6th, 2009
11:02 pm
cmac
Islam is no more responsible for Major Hasan’s actions than Christianity is for all those wing-nut crazies who murder for the Prince of Peace. In addition to all the others we know about through history, can we remember Scott Roeder and Eric Rudolph?
Religious or not, we’re each responsible for what we do and for our own reasons why. We can skew our religions of love to support evil (and there’s a lot of this these days), but God tells no one to murder, and as individuals, we’re the ones who must ultimately pay the price!
Sorry, cmac, but in all your ranting about Islam, you’re making Christianity look really, really bad. Ever read the teachings of Jesus?
Jase
November 6th, 2009
11:20 pm
“It’s going to take more stimulus to juice an economy left very nearly in ruin by the banking crisis and the real estate crash.”
Cynthia, are you saying the $800 Billion stimulus package passed earlier this year was/is a steaming pile of crap?
RAMBLE ON!!!
November 6th, 2009
11:31 pm
Didn’t Obama say that if we DIDN”T pass the stimulus package, unemployment would reach as high as 9%?
At least all those union employees at GM are getting paid.
OMG, 3 MORE YEARS!!!!!
Kamchak
November 7th, 2009
12:49 am
OMG, 3 MORE YEARS!!!!!
Here’s what five years of trickle-down got us.
Two-thirds of the nation’s total income gains from 2002 to 2007 flowed to the top 1 percent of U.S. households, and that top 1 percent held a larger share of income in 2007 than at any time since 1928, according to an analysis of newly released IRS data by economists Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez.
During those years, the Piketty-Saez data also show, the inflation-adjusted income of the top 1 percent of households grew more than ten times faster than the income of the bottom 90 percent of households.
Johnny DangerDawg
November 7th, 2009
3:07 am
“The bill also extended a tax credit intended to lure home buyers and shore up the lagging real estate market.” These tax credits just artificially inflate home prices. If home buyers didn’t have the tax credits, the sellers would just have to lower their prices by that amount. In the end, the home *buyers* end up spending the same amount of their own money either way. But the tax credits mean the government (and taxpayers) have to spend money.
clyde
November 7th, 2009
4:47 am
I’m thinking that if I was in debt up to my eyeballs,the very last thing I’d want to do would be to spend more money.That’s just me,mind you,but I’ve always been fiscally responsible.
Kudos to the elected ones for extending the unemployment benefits,but this trying to revive the housing market with artificial means is a bad move.I seem to recall that the housing market,with it’s overinflated values was instrumental in getting us into this mess.Let’s let the housing market sink to it’s real bottom.
What about the deficit? The people in charge for the last few years are responible for causing it.Bush started it and Obama is showing him how it really can be done.The rest of us will be responsible for paying it down.That’s taxes in excess of what it normally takes to keep it running.That number,the real debt,is starting to be a surreal figure that no one fully comprehends.
itsme
November 7th, 2009
6:11 am
I can’t believe that the Obama administration has been in power for almost a year and has done nothing about unemployment. Small businesses provide most of the jobs in this country. Why is nothing done to help them provide more jobs?
Bitter EX democrackkk
November 7th, 2009
7:20 am
Suddenly the popular HR1207 Audit the FEDeral Reserve bill has been gutted by Mel Watt D-NC12…with 308 Bipartisan CO sponsors, WHY would this jerk pull this crap? contact your congress critter to save HR1207 from the wrath of the criminal democrackkks in Congress!
AUDIT and ABOLISH the Federal Reserve, a PRIVATE organization, that has RAVAGED America since 1913! Pass the FAIRTAX and return the REAL POWER to the PEOPLE! N O W !!!
ken
November 7th, 2009
7:36 am
Political Correctness killed 12 soldiers
Vinny
November 7th, 2009
7:38 am
itsme
Because President Obama is not interested in improving the economy. His interest lies in taking it over and making America into a 3rd world country.
Del
November 7th, 2009
7:39 am
Tom Middleton
I’m truly amazed that you seem to be saying that we really don’t have a world and over the last several years a domestic issue with radical Islam who wants to destroy us in the name of their religion. How does recognizing this crises reflect badly on Christianity? Do we have a world and domestic crises with radical Christians murdering people in the name God that I’m not aware of?
DAVID
November 7th, 2009
7:53 am
THINK I’ll just go back to sleep……You are such a booooooooooore…Cynthia
John Galt Jr.
November 7th, 2009
7:55 am
Well kamchack the commie, you freaking idiot, the top 1% pay 40 percent of all federal taxes. Did you know that? The top 5% pay 80% of the federal tab, did you know that? You ever create job or hire anyone? You ever work for a poor person? I bet Cynthia the commie has never created one job either. Guess what? My evil rich ass has created 13.
Grumpy
November 7th, 2009
7:56 am
More government spending to “save us”
In 2009, a bunch of handouts to the states was going to save jobs until things got better. Didn’t happen.
So now we’re supposed to do it again in 2010, under the premise that things will magically get better in 2011. Yeah, sure.
That’s great. Just one question…where is the true, organic economic growth going to come from? When the government STOPS the stimulus, where is the growth? What is the engine? Businesses have no confidence. Taxes are set to go up, which stifles growth. No one trusts D.C.
So how is borrowing billions from China going to magically fix everything in 2010, if it didn’t magically fix everything in 2009?
Road Scholar
November 7th, 2009
8:14 am
Joan: “I have a degree in business, have taken finance and economics..”
So you are an expert for taking some courses? I notice your degree isn’t in finance or economics. I wonder where Rush and the other right wing commentators have degrees and their basis for being experts… on all things it seems. Oh, and what has Rush run or what elected office he has filled so that a record of business actions and decisions, and their results, can be seen. No one seems to discuss that! It’s easy to sit on the fence and crow; its tougher to get in the trenches and lead.
While just now asking in the census whether a person is an American citizen seems late, at least they are doing it. But I don’t think that healthcare officials won’t be looking at the census when someone requests healthcare; they’ll look at their ID’s and health care card. At least they have begun asking!
Vinny: You are just stupid! Why would Obama do that? Why would Congress allow him to do that?
While I understand why unemployment benefits have been extended, they also need to focus on infrastructure spending. That would create jobs, but we would at least have something to show for it other than people sitting on their butts. We would get bridges, roads, sewerlines,… infrastucture to replace and augment that which is deterioating.. which will need fixing anyway.
I have a dream
November 7th, 2009
8:20 am
To the writer of this column. Remember, you have a job. It’s easy for you to say spend, spend, spend when you get a paycheck each week, month etc. What about the millions of people that are part of the 10% unemployed? Hard to spend when you’re just surviving!
And you are correct on one thing…disgruntled american still have the power of the voting ballot. BO, is pushing his changes down the throats of the american people. He needs to give the american people the benefit of the doubt and listen to them.
What good is a “Change Disciple” if he pisses off everyone and only servers one term. He should practice his charm and diplomacy on his own soil. He never intended to be bi-partisan, bi-polar maybe ,never bi-partisan.
jt
November 7th, 2009
8:32 am
It is hard for an owner of a small business or a self-employed contractor to get motivated when they know that over have of their earnings will be stolen from them.(fed,state,local etc..).
I believe that most producers are hunkered down now, and will keep their spending and hiring to a minimum until the next elections. They are hoping for less looting by the gang of 525 in Washington.
The only thing that Washington can do to spur the economy is to lower taxes and go the hell away.
It takes awhile for Harvard lawyers to admit their ignorance.
Paul/Wilson 2012.
scott
November 7th, 2009
8:38 am
the bad economy started with 8 yrs of republicans and putting them back in office will not solve a thing matter of fact it will get worse..remmember bush couldnt even be frank with the american people by saying we were in economic trouble instead he said were were in a slow down ..our great president obama is too busy cleaning up the mess left by republicans..as a very wealth white male i cannot understand why poor whites and middle class whites continue to vote for republicans when they only care about the wealthy and big corporations ..they only care about the rich getting richer..stop voting away your best interest your not doing yourself a favor..REPUBLCANS CARE ABOUT RICH REPUBLICANS ONLY
Jack
November 7th, 2009
8:40 am
Cynthia is right again, “It’s the Economy Stupid” worked for Clinton (our last balanced budget, surplus) and it’ll float or sink Obama. Passing Health Care Reform will help, cap and trade and a big push towards a new green economy is critical. We now have the highest unemployment since Ronald Reagan days, but he seemed to have survived those tough times. Now I personally wish Obama was a little less cautiously pragmatic and more bravely progressive but I figure if my naive liberal self isn’t totally happy and the nutty tea party folks aren’t happy most Americans in the middle will probably be OK. Thank God for a healthy Democracy…….three more years.
mhs4
November 7th, 2009
8:49 am
Despite what I read from a bunch of liberals who obviously have been asleep for years the economy did not totally fail the last eight years. However, the economy definitely has tanked since the democrats have been in control over the past 2+ years. Bush tried to get along with the democrats in the last year or so and made some blunder-head decisions listening to them and trying to pacify them. This was definitely a lack of leadership of his part. Now we are seeing even more lack of leadership. We should have known a used car salesman would have been a better choice than a lawyer.
Kamchak
November 7th, 2009
8:56 am
You ever create job or hire anyone?
Yep.
You ever work for a poor person?
Yep.
Another episode of one word answers to simple questions.
Del
November 7th, 2009
8:59 am
Re: the 8:38 and 8:40 am posts, well…have to say it…dumb as rocks in a box.
John Galt Jr.
November 7th, 2009
9:20 am
So kamchak, how did that job working for a poor person work for you? What exactly where you doing? Did you invest in a retirement plan while you were working for a poor person? How many people have you employed for how long? I don’t mean hiring someone to cut your grass. What about the fact the top 1% pay 40% of the federal taxes, or the top 5% pay 80%? Smoke another joint.
willie
November 7th, 2009
9:25 am
jack. You must have a phd because only affirmative education like YOURS AND Cynthia’s have reasoning like you two. Both are examples that education dont cure stupid. However keep it up because most will go to fox news to get the real news. Then surely all those progressive liberals will get voted out and we will investigate cynthia to make sure she does paid her taxes.
MAC
November 7th, 2009
9:37 am
More government spending is a problem, not a solution.
Most of you have no clue how much worse it can get with unsustainable levels of government spending and debt. Government spending can pump some things up temporarily but then the resulting falloff WILL be much worse.
The lack of fiscal responsibility by this government and the lack of true financial system reforms is apalling. GWB and the last few Congress weren’t much better but Obama ASKED for the job (he didn’t “inherit” this!) and it’s his problem to fix…..except that his prescriptions and lack of real financial system reforms, not window dressings, are going to make the economy worse not better. Wall Street money is just as green, perhaps even more so, to Obama and a Democrat Congress as it was to the Republicans and it shows right now.
The stock market is a temorary illusion. Real unemployment is close to 20% and rising. Defaults on home and commercial mortgages are going to continue for some time. I advise all thoughtful people to hunker down and pay attention to your personal economic situation. It’s going to be a long time before we see real economic growth in this country. More government spending will not change that, regardless of what the short-term focused political no-nothings claim.