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Cynthia Tucker

A baby boom can help the economy

8:46 am October 7, 2009, by ctucker

Tired of all the dreary reports about jobs and unemployment and foreclosures? Ready for some good news about the nation’s prospects for future prosperity?
Well, here’s a cause for optimism: Population growth in the United States is likely to help the country maintain its relative affluence. Though the symptoms of this miserable recession will hang around awhile, with businesses reluctant to take on new hires for months to come, the U.S. economy should re-gain lost ground.
Here’s one reason why: According to Emory University economist Jeff Rosensweig, the United States is currently enjoying an unprecedented bounty of live births.
“We’ve had more babies born in the U.S. in the past two years than at any point in history, including the peak of the baby boom, 1957,” Rosensweig said.
And what does that baby boom have to do with economic growth?
“Think of the demand that’s going to be created for teachers, for high-quality day care,” Rosensweig said. He also noted that an aging population will need nurses, doctors, pharmacists and physical therapists, among other health care specialists, to take care of us. That will fuel job growth, too.
And a new wave of employed adults will create a new wave of demand — for houses and apartments, for cars and televisions, for clothes and computers. Somewhere in that two-year-old cohort are inventors, researchers and scientists whose creative ideas will contribute to the economy for decades to come.
Demographers noted in 2007 that the U.S. had climbed back to a fertility rate that guaranteed enough babies to replace the elders. While social scientists believe those new workers are essential for vibrant economic growth, a replacement fertility rate continues to elude Japan and much of Western Europe.
Just producing babies won’t be enough to guarantee affluence, of course. If the U.S. is to maintain economic hegemony, far-sighted public policy proposals must go hand in hand with the encouraging demographics.
First, the nation needs an educated citizenry. Rosensweig, whose speciality applies demographics to global business trends, stresses the importance of post-secondary education in a global economy.
He doesn’t foresee a return of American manufacturing as a cornerstone of the economy. Factories will continue to shift to countries such as China and Vietnam, where the labor is cheaper, he believes.
In this country, our strongest comparative advantage lies in our ability to educate our citizens. “We need to emphasize eyeball-to-eyeball jobs, like nursing and physical therapy. They can’t be outsourced. And those are well-paying jobs,” Rosensweig said.
Second, the country needs to create a model of sustainability. Environmentalists worry about population growth, and for good reason: If U.S. consumers continue to use up resources as we currently do, the planet will run out of not just petroleum but also water.
Americans account for 5 percent of the world’s population but we use about 25 percent of its energy resources. As this nation grows — and as other powers such as China and India and Brazil continue to consume more resources — none of us can afford to be greedy. We can maintain a comfortable standard of living while becoming better stewards of the planet.
Third, we need to come to terms with immigration and the boost it has given to our economy. One of the reasons for our baby boom is the higher fertility rate among Latinos — something critics contend is a serious burden. Instead, immigrant fertility turns out to be an economic boost.
As Congress turns in the coming months to a plan for comprehensive immigration reform, we should keep all that in mind.
So the economy will continue to be bumpy for awhile, but the country still has what it takes to produce broad prosperity. If our elected leaders give us sound public policy, the economic future for our children should be brighter still.

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29 comments Add your comment

EVIL REPUBLICANS TIME IS UP

October 7th, 2009
8:48 am

1ST

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK CYNTHIA

Atlanta Native

October 7th, 2009
9:02 am

With 72% of African Americans born out of wedlock, and whites and hispanics gaining ground in that area, it would seem that a baby boom will only hurt our economy, with fuller prisons and more single mothers on the dole. With fathers abdicating responsibility to their offspring, this pattern will continue.

What we need is our leaders, community and national, setting an example of taking their obligations seriously when they create new life. I am not a fan of Obama’s politics, but he sets a great example for young African Americans by pulling himself up by his bootstraps, getting an education, and, quite noticeably, being a committed family man. If he inspires people to take responsibility, then maybe the boom will be a good thing.

If the “my baby’s daddy” culture continues in this country, the baby boom will just bring more problems. If we continue on our course of governmental dependency, all we will be doing is expanding the unemployment ranks.

Joan

October 7th, 2009
9:08 am

It is just too bad that most of those babies are being born to people who are entitlement types, and that these babies are likely to be just another in a multi-generational chain of parasites on a struggling system. As far as teacher’s employment is concerned–who cares? They are simply union hacks doing as little as possible to keep their jobs, and certainly not teaching our children anything much. The proof is in the pudding.

jconservative

October 7th, 2009
9:09 am

The words behind the words are this – the new “baby boom” will be by what is currently minority status demographic groups, not the currently majority “white” population. Unless the Republican party can loosen the grip of social conservatives on the party, it will cease to exist as a viable alternative party.

Just saying.

TnGelding

October 7th, 2009
10:06 am

Corporate America has to come to its senses. This is their recession. Our days in the sun are over. Frugality is our future. Too bad it had to be forced on us. The federal government needs to get all taxes off of business and transfer them to workers and consumers over a 7 year period so it can compete in the global marketplace. But it won’t matter if they’ve already abandoned us. Have they?

Population growth is the last thing we need, especially among the poor. We need to reach a plateau and try to stay there. Illegal immigration has to be stopped and legal immigration greatly restricted IF we want to maintain our culture. We’re spending too much on public education and health care already. In reality, we can’t even afford to bus them to school.

We need new and innovative thinking for the 21st century.

Kevin

October 7th, 2009
10:15 am

I speak Cynthiaease. “We need to come to terms with immigration”. Loosely translated, this means, “We need to ignore the rule of law and let people stay here who entered the country illegally.”

Sorry, Cindy. I’m not buying it.

But, then again, I’m racist.

F. Sinkwich

October 7th, 2009
10:25 am

Well, I hope they all get good jobs so they can pay off all that debt Chairman O is running up. One of the few things I agree with McCain about is his “generational theft” statement.

Jay

October 7th, 2009
10:40 am

Yes, the demographics in this country is fast changing and nothing can be done to change the trend. The hispanic population is a vital part of the economy and the society, whatever anti-immigrant and racist groups cry about. Hispanics are very contributive to the economy and are very hard working. I have never seen one hispanic panhandler or homeless. Without them agricultural production would come to near zero. Construction and industrial production will suffer.

Take a good look at the food that’s on your table. Lettuce, spinach. carrots for salad….a nice juicy steak…strawberries and cherries for fruit….those dont magically appear on grocery stores. And bubba doesnt grow them anymore. There are immigrants, mostly hispanic working all day in the hot sun growing, harvesting and packing the stuff that you put on your mouth.

The very young hispanic population is becoming a key group in economics and politics. A few old racists can gripe about it till they die but can do nothing to stop them.

Road Scholar

October 7th, 2009
10:44 am

Joan: ” entitlement types”- couldn’t you just state that they appear to not have the means to support their families?

Well said Jay!

TnGelding

October 7th, 2009
11:31 am

Jay

October 7th, 2009
10:40 am

It’s not racism to want to keep our culture. Let them stay in their own countries to make them better places to work and live.

Chris Broe

October 7th, 2009
12:12 pm

Grading Tucker:

“The late baby boom will help the economy because our children will have a brighter future?”

A desperately-vapid treatment about a recession-ending deus ex machina. Her conclusion is supported only by the cyclical nature of capital markets, wishful thinking and circular logic, (which could support any prediction).

Tucker’s premise relies on deftly-directed immigration reform, education reform, and suddenly-philanthropic natural resource allocation (fightin’ words! She just declared war on drive-thru restaurants.)

Let’s see…. heretofore lacking Lincolnesque political leadership that would bring fruition to our country’s founding mission? Isn’t that the plot to the “Pied Piper of Hamelin”?

We’re trapped like rats! (I know, speak for myself)

Jklol

CNN just reported that Hell’s Kitchen host Gordon Ramsay has admitted on his show that he’s had sex with unnamed Apple Pies that he’s worked with on the show. He apologized profusely to edible panties, candified-condoms, and of course, female anatomy cakes……Jklol

baking on the appalachian trail? (somebody stop me.)

Dr David Hill

October 7th, 2009
12:13 pm

Enter your comments hereWhat a load of twaddle ! With the continual decline in US industrial production/output and the constant rise of China and the Eastern economies, more people is the least thing that the United States needs. What the USA needs is its re-invention as the world’s leading innovator and provider of technological goods that surpass all others. Please look at something other than increased people numbers, as they will be a great burden around you neck in 25-years time. China knows where the money is for increased affluence, Innovation and Creative thinking. It is about time that the USA regained this same wisdom and adopted economic models based solely on technological excellence, something that it was great at some 25 years ago !

Dr David Hill
World Innovation Foundation

Dr David Hill

October 7th, 2009
12:17 pm

What a load of twaddle ! With the continual decline in US industrial production/output and the constant rise of China and the Eastern economies, more people is the least thing that the United States needs. What the USA needs is its re-invention as the world’s leading innovator and provider of technological goods that surpass all others. Please look at something other than increased people numbers, as they will be a great burden around your neck in 25-years time. China knows where the money is for increased affluence, Innovation and Creative thinking. It is about time that the USA regained this same wisdom and adopted economic models based solely on technological excellence, something that it was great at some 25 years ago !

Dr David Hill
World Innovation Foundation

Robyn

October 7th, 2009
12:20 pm

Just what we need, more welfare brood-mares shooting out more babies they expect someone else to pay for. Typical Tucker leftist logic.

Jeff Rosensweig, emory University

October 7th, 2009
12:25 pm

Enter your comments here

Jeff Rosensweig, Eemory University

October 7th, 2009
12:29 pm

Enter your comments here
Some, but not all, interesting or provocative comments to what I think is a useful new perspective on the possible future of the US. Most commentators run down the future of the US, citing our aging population and the imminent retirement of some of the older baby boomers.
cynthia Tucker weaves together ideas about the growing cohort of young people in the US, and how with far-sighted innovation they can be the innovators and producers of the future.
One thing that worries me is when comments take on for example a racial tinge, without data support, as the first few comments in this string do. May I point out that the fertility rate for African-americans is almost exactly the same as that for the US as a whole?

Jeff Rosensweig, Eemory University

October 7th, 2009
12:31 pm

Enter your comments here

sorry — I meant far-sighted education, e.g. focused on ensuring our students study the disciplines needed to succeed in the industries of the future.

News Hound

October 7th, 2009
1:19 pm

Headlines proving beyond the shadow of the doubt that global warming is upon us:

SNOW PILING UP: Idaho school kids enjoy ‘earliest snow day in history’…

Colorado ski resort boasts ‘earliest opening day in 40 years’…

Vegas ski resort to open ‘earlier than it ever has’…

Henry HIbbert

October 7th, 2009
2:36 pm

Observed yesterday while at the DeKalb County Jail: Roomful of standing room only visitors to see “baby’s daddy.” Nearly two dozen toddlers and “baby’s mommas” waiting to go see someone being cared for by Sheriff Thomas Brown (great sheriff by the way). All under the age of 25.
Yes there is a population boom.

TnGelding

October 7th, 2009
3:06 pm

Jeff Rosensweig, Eemory University

October 7th, 2009
12:29 pm

It’s not he African-American fertility rate but the Latino one that is of major concern. It’s not racism, but self-preservation.

Dr David Hill

October 7th, 2009
12:17 pm

Thanks for backing me up with doctoral analysis. We need a wholesale change in Congress, especially among the leadership.

El Jefe

October 7th, 2009
5:38 pm

Just think of the shape Social Security and Medicare would be in if we raised kids instead of aborting them. Such short sighted measure.

Deborah Fetkovich

October 8th, 2009
12:40 am

It would be helpful to examine the cause of the present economic distress before jumping over a cliff with whatever harebrained idea strikes your fancy at the moment. Over the years, activists such as ACORN pressured Democrats to enact legislation encouraging banks to discard prudent loan policies in favor of risky ones based upon the notion that minorities were being discriminated against in attaining the American dream of home ownership due to unneccesarily strict lending policies. In order to bail out the banks who would otherwise collapse with these oft-defaulted subprime loans, Democrats then pushed for shifting the risk to those who pay federal income taxes using the vehicles of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. During this time many advertisements for “No-Income/No-Credit Check mortgages” were made as companies competed for business where the risk was assumed by the federal taxpayer and not the companies doing all the reckless lending.

In 2001 and again in 2005, the Bush administration attempted and failed to get Congress to reverse these disastrous policies. Both times the Bush administration was severely ridiculed by Democrats in Congress, especially by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd. ( Chris Dodd personally received favorable loans from one of these subprime lenders – Countrywide.)

When the house of cards came crashing down, nearly all agreed that the initial cash infusion was essential to preserve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The subsequent auto bailouts and cash-for-clunkers schemes have only worsened the problem adding to the deficit and undermining the dollar.

The current national unemployment rate is 10% and cities like Detroit are experiencing rates over 20%. As we all know, these numbers only reflect those currently receiving unemployment benefits. They don’t include the number whose benefit period has expired and remain unemployed, nor do they include those who have taken part-time positions when they need the income of a full time job. The true unemployment or underemployment number is approximately one in every seven Americans. These are the very people most likely to be the parents of the new baby-boom you call for. It boggles coherent minds to understand how encouraging the unemployed to have children is going to help improve the economy.

Robert Walker

October 8th, 2009
11:35 am

I’m a big fan of Cynthia Tucker’s but this commentary misses the point. As she acknowledges, the U.S has less than five percent of the world’s population but we consume 25% of its resources and account for 25% of the greenhouse gas emissions. Sorry, more people (i.e. consumers) dividing up an ever-shrinking pie of resources (oil, water, fish, cropland, etc.) is not a recipe for economic prosperity.

Bob

October 9th, 2009
4:28 pm

About the “global warming debunking” comment, tree ring evidence shown that the transition from the medieval warm period to the little ice age did not happen gradually as people expected. The transition was a yo-yo, with the hottest and driest years followed the coldest and wettest years in a 50 year period. We are now experiencing this climate yo-yo effect everywhere. Arctic ice now disappears one year only to come back with a vengeance the next year followed by a bigger melt-off the year after. Believe it, it is real and the effects are not going to be pretty.

Bob

October 9th, 2009
4:33 pm

If America is 25% or more of the world economy, then why is it a problem if we use 25% of the world’s resources?

Patricia Shannon

October 9th, 2009
10:32 pm

The last thing the world needs is more people, which means more pollution, including greenhouse gases, shortages of water and other resources, higher prices, lower wages, more forests cut down.

BGSU

October 24th, 2009
5:42 pm

Cynthia Tucker- What tripe.

Phyllis Pieri

March 24th, 2010
3:02 pm

Thanks for your great article. We had Jeff Rosensweig at our IFA convention this year in February and he did this talk and it was very eye opening. I appreciate the great job you did in recapping what he said. I work with people who are considering lots of different business models but the senior care and tutoring/education model is very popular and needed in today’s world.

ctucker

March 24th, 2010
3:20 pm

Phyllis, Thanks for the kind words.