Is new report on job market on the mark or all wet?

Do you buy this?

In its annual Labor Day outlook, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas says the job market is well on the road to recovery. In fact, Challenger, Gray says it’s rebounding sooner and faster compared with the jobless recoveries that followed the previous two recessions.

The firm, known for regularly tracking corporate jobs cuts, says positive trends include the pace of layoffs and job creation.

“By most accounts, we are barely a year into the recovery,” John Challenger, chief executive of the firm, said in a statement. “At this point in the previous two recoveries – following the 1991 and 2001 recessions – the job market was actually getting worse.”

Challenger said “many people are so caught up looking at the weekly and monthly numbers, that they fail to look at the bigger trends, which indicate just how much the job market has improved over the last 12 months.”

In Georgia, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 9.9 percent in July. But that was because thousands of discouraged workers gave up their search. Also, half of the unemployed in Georgia have been out of work for at least 27 weeks. That’s a lot worse than a year ago.

Challenger acknowledges that “the job market has a long way to go before it fully recovers. After all, this is the worst recession this country has experienced in decades, with unemployment climbing to 10.1 percent as the number of jobless American grew by more 8.3 million, reaching a record high of 15.6 million. It doesn’t take an economist or jobs expert to tell you that it is going to take longer to get all of these people back onto payrolls.

“However, the statistics indicate that the job market has made great strides over the last 12 months.”

Great strides? What do you think about this? Ring true or all wet?

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24 comments Add your comment

Mr. big

August 24th, 2010
7:23 am

Great Strides! An over statement by far.

Nonia

August 24th, 2010
7:29 am

I can tell the skilled job market has picked up for my company has axed at least 32 people from my department alone. Each one of them has landed something new, wjth better salaries even!
I can also tell the job market has picked up by the morning traffic gridlock every morning compared to last year

Mr. big

August 24th, 2010
7:30 am

I guess if you look hard enough, you can find a positive report on a recovery. But, the bigger picture would suggest otherwise.

Lorenzo

August 24th, 2010
7:53 am

Nonia,
I assume your former co-workers are Brain Surgeons, because there are still tons of good people who have been out of work for 1-2 years. Please let us know what business you are in they can apply there.

Nonia

August 24th, 2010
8:06 am

Information technology is my career field. Also blast your resume out for companies are sitting on tons of cash for they have reduced their workforce and placed the burden upon the backs of the remaining employees. I was doing the job of 4 people on my job since they axed 32 people since January-this isnt good for it causes more sick day usage, burnout, early retirement…..etc. Now companies are forced to hire for they are losing profits due to loss of productivity

The Economy

August 24th, 2010
8:18 am

The numbers are ALWAYS squed to fit WallSt/US Gov. agenda. True Unemployment rate is closer to 17% Henry, even you should know this! It will get worse before it gets better, 10 yrs before this is behind us fully. Dont think for a minute that the middle class life style will return to what you enjoyed, those days are gone, long gone. Rich/Poor.

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Belinda

August 24th, 2010
9:51 am

I’m not buying this. Corporations are considering doing some hiring. But nothing is happening quickly. Georgia has been hit very hard. And the recovery is very slow.

Palin fan

August 24th, 2010
10:37 am

“However, the statistics indicate that the job market has made great strides over the last 12 months.”

What statistics? No statistics were provided to support this assertion that is supposedly based on statistics.

The statistics show that Barack Omaba is failing because of his socialist policies.

Artie

August 24th, 2010
11:00 am

Maybe it’s just the back-to-school rush that you’re noticing, Nunya.

We haven't Forgotten

August 24th, 2010
11:30 am

Anyone who votes Republican and works, or wants to work for a living is out of his/her mind.

The gig is up. Giving more money to rich folks and multinational companies in hope they will trickle down jobs has been proven a hoax.

Also the idea that if we let businesses police themselves by further deregulation is also part of the scam. The Wall Street Bubble, which was preceded by the Dot Com Bubble as well as the mine disaster and the huge oil spill are all examples of what happens when you buy into the Republican economic hocus pocus.

Add to that that the Republicans haven’t lifted a finger to help so things could get worse because they believe they’ll get to take over and do it all again!

I bought into the Bush tax cuts and all that deregulation. Now 15-20 million peop[le have lost their jobs. As the song says, “we won’t get fooled again”.

I don’t care if Obama is a Muslim or any of those other dog whistles. So far he has done ok cleaing up the mess. Those that believe he was some kind of magician that could turn this wrecked economy around in under 2 years are propagandizing, or really really dumb.

Go Figure

August 24th, 2010
11:30 am

They say “figures lie and liars figure”. If your company laid off 9,000 workers and later hired 2,000, only the 2,000 would be factored into the employment statistics. It is a “positive” rise in employment even though the net result is a loss of 7,000 jobs.

N

August 24th, 2010
11:31 am

Completely agree. They never recovered overnight before, not even after 2001. Finally someone looks at it in perspective, where we are at now compared to 18 months ago etc.

Funny how the blog mentions an all time high of 15 million jobless – in part because the population has grown – if you go back and look we haven’t reached the unemployment rate we reached in the early 80′’s – close but the 80’s still beat it.

Things are bleak but signs of slowly recovering are there. This is very positive coming from someone that tracks corporate job cuts.

N

August 24th, 2010
11:45 am

Some interesting excerpts from the report:

“Of course, those who recall the 1991 and 2001 recessions understand
that the end of the downturn does not necessarily mean an end to job market
misery. In both cases, the end of the recession was followed by a period of
“jobless recovery” during which payrolls continued to lose jobs and the
unemployment rate continue to increase. In 1991, the jobless recovery lasted
about 15 months and following the 2001 downturn, it took about 19 months for
the job market to reverse course,” said Challenger.

In the thirteen months since the presumptive end of the recession in June
2009, announced job cuts have averaged 56,208 per month. In fact, monthly
job cuts have numbered fewer than 100,000 for 14 consecutive months, a streak
that has not been achieved since 1999-2000.

The private sector has had seven
consecutive months of job gains, adding a net total of 630,000 new jobs to the
economy since January 1

The first
five months of consistent job gains, which did not begin until September 2004,
saw average net payroll gains of 120,000 new jobs per month. In contrast, the
five consecutive months of job gains that ended in May reached an average of
201,000 new jobs per month.

Following the end of the 2001 recession, the
unemployment rate stood at 5.5 percent. It continued to climb for 19 months,
peaking at 6.3 percent in June 2003. Following the nine-month downturn that
ended in March 1991, unemployment continued to increase from a recessionending
6.8 percent to a peak of 7.8 percent in June 1992; 15 months later.
At the presumed end of this recession in June 2009, the unemployment
rate stood at 9.5 percent. It also increased in the months that followed.
However, instead of increasing for 15 months or 19 months, it appears to have
peaked at 10.1 percent in October 2009, just four months after the end of the
recession. As of July, the unemployment rate had fallen to 9.5 percent.

shadow7071

August 24th, 2010
11:54 am

What we need and are wanting to see is an overall upward trend in hirings. What we are continuing to see are a few discrete, glimmers of hirings in spurious organizations. Unfortunately these reports of hirings are coupled with reports of cutbacks, plant closings, and layoffs. So, honestly, the employment picture continues to stagnate in this economic quagmire that we’re suffering.

As an example – we have this positive report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas but it is coupled with a housing report that sales are down 27%. So, CG&C sees a little employment growth but the housing and construction industry is no where near recovering. In fact, this number (27%) will send shock waves through the economy and will probably negate any of CG&C’s positives.

N

August 24th, 2010
12:31 pm

In fairness the July housing report are sales that were pending in May, the month after the tax credit hit so everyone Except the so called experts expected it to be WAY down. So me the numbers 6 months out from the end of the credit and then we will see.

N

August 24th, 2010
12:33 pm

In addition its hard to argue the facts that show each time that it takes upwards of 15 months of growth before jobs start coming back at all — its a slow process but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

shadow7071

August 24th, 2010
1:19 pm

Since the end of WWII economic cycles have been fairly predictable. Much of the analysis we hear and read today is based on models, opinions and observations derived from data (and economic behavior) over the approximate period of 1945-2000. During this period recessions were contained through either fiscal or monetary policies (depending which political party was in office). But more than that our economy was structured in fashion that it would and could respond to outside economic stimuli (i.e., government spending or currency management). That is to say that government could boost consumer confidence and spending which in turn would boost the demand for goods and services and finally boost the need for more labor. This time around we’re in a different situation. Because of global competition, loss of jobs overseas, government controls on business, politics, fear, uncertainty, and risk aversion the economy is not responding the way it has in the past. We will come through this but it will take time and some strategic thinking and acting by citizens, government and business.

R

August 24th, 2010
3:30 pm

The job market will get a little better the first of next year IF we see Democrats ousted in November. The economy will also be on a road to recovery in 2012 when Obama leaves the White House. The powers that be, large corporations, and most especially banks have no confidence in the current administration. Money will start to roll when there are assurances certain elected officials are on there way out the door! Watch and see!

And Nonia – most of the unemployed people I know are in the IT field. Something just doesn’t add up with your story.

A.S.Mathew

August 24th, 2010
5:24 pm

Great strides is a sweet statement. Years back, when the hamberger joints started an
advertisement campaign, one company had this advertisement. Three old ladies looking a small
hamburger patti ” where is the beef”.

Great strides is like that. All of my friends who lost their job got nothing so far, and some of them
are professionals. My son with a Master’s in mechanical engineering with the award ” the most
outstanding student” can’t get a job, so he is now planning to go for medicine, hoping that he
can make a living as a doctor some day.

The recession has not touched those people in the medical field, but all other regular employees are
affected some way. All the business people, whether they are small or big are terribly
affected by the recession. There is a gloom and despondency on everybody’s face now, and
the hope is somewhat lost for a fast recovery. On the other hand, preparing to face for a hard
time.

USA WILL LIVE AGAIN!!!

August 24th, 2010
8:38 pm

Here is what I say to all of this…the reason there is no functioning of government is that there are no checks and balances in place in any of the supposed regulatory arms of the government. When those get reinstated. Watch out and behold who goes to prison, and those who are tried for treason against these United States of America. We can blame the president’s Bush and Obama all we want to but it is our faults as the voters because we didn’t do our homework and elect the most reasonable people to Congress based on their voting record. Do your home work people, and educate yourself. Put down the remote…stop worrying about Lindsay Lohan she is on the way to hell anyway…and worry about your country because it is right behind her freckled ass in heading that way. Quit worrying about Tiger…its just another black who tried to take a white piece of female meat, and destroy our values! Finally for the love of God….do something that means something. Some of the brightest people in our country are those enveloped in caring about the needs of others! During this recession or depression get your head out of your ass, and do something for an elderly person or visit some of the sick people in the hospital. You’ll be better of for it!
GOD BLESS AMERICA

old man

August 25th, 2010
8:28 am

The recovery will take years, and we will never get those years back.

The problem is the shear amount of wealth sucked out of the economy by a privileged or lucky few. The understanding of derivatives and credit default swaps is still minimal, as intended by their creators. They were designed to be incomprehensible, and they were designed to concentrate wealth in the hands of a few. Their creators lobbied for them to be unregulated, and so they were. They worked as intended. They operated with stunning suddenness to transfer immense wealth to a few already wealthy people, and their already wealthy bankers. Today, the concentration of wealth in America is even greater than in the Gilded Age, which all of us learned in high school was a period of abject failure of our economic system. That money had to come from somewhere, thus the sudden absence of money, liquidity, and credit in the economy, and thus the economy instantly in crisis.

The bottom line is that a very few people got away with the biggest heist in world history. Like most robberies, it succeeded in large measure because of the incompetence and/or corruption of law enforcement.

The point is that the scam was so big, so immense, and so unprecedented, that the recovery will be long and painful. So we can stop trying to read the tea leaves in every new government report. Oh, and by the way, your Congress, lobbied by the same bankers, has yet to regulate the scam. So it will happen again.

No jobs

August 25th, 2010
11:10 pm

the job market is terrible. I got laid off 8 months ago from a job in customer support and get even get a job at the mall with all that rif raf. The last place I applied had 400 people looking for a minimum wage job at the food court.