Comments on: Economist: Local unemployment to start falling dramatically in second quarter of 2010

By: Trucker_18a @ Truckerboards

Trucker_18a @ Truckerboards — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 06:27:18 +0000

All I’m conscious of is further corporate contractions, some very severe in the near future.

All I see is vacant strip malls. Even heard of a few with shuttered Adult businesses.

Would like to know where he got his magic wand, I sure could use a money tree about now,

Can I get a 10-4?

By: RGB

RGB — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:14:55 +0000

Small point: The story cites a prediction of unemployment decline to 6.5%.

“By the fourth quarter of next year, Smith said metro Atlanta’s unemployment rate would retreat to 6.5 percent. That would be an enormous decline from the current rate of 10.5 percent.”

That further strengthens your point, of course.

By: shadow 7071

shadow 7071 — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:50:01 +0000

So, Joey the economist in Carrolton predicts a dramatic turn in Georgia’s economy that will drive down unemployment from the present 10.2% to 8.8%. Now, I’ve read all the comments above and I believe that most folks really don’t see this happening. Now, of course there are those that think that the stock market is going to cure all. Foolish thinking. But please don’t believe me but do get some writings about the Great Depression so that you can fully understand how the economy behaves. But, back the Joey the economist, the Georgia economy and unemployment.

First, Joey just may be right! By Q2 2010 many people will have exhausted their unemployment benefits and they will no longer be part of the unemployment statistic. When this happens the Georgia unemployment rate will dramatically and statistically decrease. Of course it doesn’t mean that more people are employed, it just means we are not counting them any longer. In other words, they don’t count. And if Joey (and his fellow economists) isn’t counting them in the unemployment statistic then the statistic will be lower.

Second, what if Joey isn’t depending on this statistical manipulation for his prediction? What if he really thinks (and predicts) a dramatic improvement in Georgia’s economy is coming in 2010? Then we have to ask ourselves – what is the magnitude of this economic event that will drive our unemployment down from 10.2% to 8.8%?

Well, right now there are approximately 500,000 folks unemployed in GA (a recent example in the press said that all these people would be a line that would stretch from Chattanooga to Savannah). This is the official statistic. The statistic that says we have 10.2% unemployed. In other words, 10.2% unemployed equals 500,000 folks. Now, if we do a quick calculation we find that 8.8% (Joey’s prediction) unemployed is equal to about 430,000 folks being unemployed. Still a lot of folks unemployed but an improvement from 500,000. But to get to this 430,000 means that 70,000 people have to find jobs. And I think that’s what most of the commenters above are wondering – where are these 70,000 thousands jobs in the state of Georgia? Who is going to hire 70,000 workers? Which businesses in the state are going to hire 70,000 workers? What new businesses are moving into the state that will need 70,000 workers?

As an example, right now Volkswagen is building it’s world-class manufacturing facility in Chattanooga. When it’s fully operational it will employ 2,500 folks. If we use this as a standard then Ga. needs to build 28 world-class manufacturing facilities in 6 months in order to employ the 70,000 unemployed that is needed to drive down Georgia’s unemployment to meet Joey’s 8.8% prediction.

By: GaNative

GaNative — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:50:50 +0000

Oh, there’ll be employment for sure. And surely the number of unemployed will drop for two reasons: 1. Most people will have expired their unemployment claims, therefore they are no longer counted. 2. Only Non Americans will be employed.

By: Not Likely

Not Likely — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:48:42 +0000

We have yet to see the big layoffs in state and local governments that will be required based on the much lower tax revenue. The twin engines of job growth under Bush were government and health care. I can tell you that there are ~300 new nursing graduates on the waiting list for a job at Wellstar. That is correct, nurses now are begging for jobs.

By: Noah

Noah — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:24:56 +0000

These comments by everyone makes it sound like they believe unemployment will keep rising until no jobs remain. Most proposals by the feds listed are troublesome but they have not come to pass yet and the trends point to some improvement in unemployment but slow.

By: Not Likely

Not Likely — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:13:21 +0000

He gives no reasons for a decline in unemployment, he just pulls these numbers out of the air. Who will be hiring? He has no idea.

By: EJ Moosa

EJ Moosa — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:17:55 +0000

RGB,

Thank you for the positive feedback.

By: RGB

RGB — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:24:29 +0000

“Higher taxes reduce profits, higher minimum wage rates reduce profits, new taxes such as carbon cap and trade will reduce future profits. More insurance mandates, more unionization are all going to decrease profits. So businesses must reduce their expenses to improve their profit picture. Right now they are trying to do this by reducing head counts, which reduced labor expense, insurance expenses, and more.”
Source: http://www.nolanchart.com/article6127.html

Great body of work, E.J. For my money, you are spot-on.

Keep it up! I’ve bookmarked your site.

By: Noah

Noah — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:59:29 +0000

I actually agree with the concerns but that doesn’t change the fact that things are getting slowly better.