Five reasons Auburn will beat Oregon for the BCS Championship
Scottsdale, Ariz.–We’ve been analyzing this game for 37 days and it all comes down to this: Tonight, No. 1 Auburn (13-0) can win its first BCS national championship since 1957 and the fifth straight for the SEC by beating No. 2 Oregon here in the desert. There are a lot of Auburn people out here without tickets because, if it happens, they want to say for the rest of their lives that they were here.
Can Auburn do it? Or does Oregon win the first national championship in its football history?
Five reasons why I’m picking Auburn:
1. Cameron Newton: A lot the best defensive minds in college football (Nick Saban, John Chavis, Ellis Johnson) have tried to come up with a plan to contain the Auburn quarterback and nobody has been able to do it. Newton led the SEC in rushing and when defenses have stacked the box and forced Newton to throw he has done a remarkable job in the second half of the season. In Newton’s last five games he has completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 1,225 yards, 15 touchdowns and just one interception. Newton now has a chance to become only the 14th player in history to win a Heisman Trophy and then go on to win the national championship.
There is no question that Oregon will gear its fast, physical defense to slow down the running game and hope that Newton throws interceptions.
2. Nick Fairley: When California nearly beat Oregon back in November, the Bears kept it close by using strong pressure up the middle to disrupt the well-timed and agressive offense of the Ducks. Nobody puts pressure up the middle like Auburn’s Nick Fairley. Auburn has been very good about making the opposing quarterback uncomfortable, especially in the second half of games. So look for them to use Fairley to really turn the heat up on Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas. I will throw in this caveat: After the close call against Cal, Oregon started counter punching the pressure up the middle with quick hitting plays on the perimeter. But if Auburn doesn’t effectively pressure Thomas, that could spell trouble for the Tigers.
3. Toughness: Don’t get me wrong, Oregon is a physical team, albeit smaller than Auburn. They play fast and they play hard. But Auburn has been a mentally tough, resilient team all season. The Tigers have trailed in eight of their 13 victories and four times they rallied from double-digit deficits (including a 24-0 deficit at Alabama) to win. But Auburn has played on the big stage all season and is not in awe of its surroundings. If the game is close in the fourth quarter, you have to like Auburn.
4. The Auburn offensive line: Nobody is talking about these guys but they are probably the key to the game. With the Oregon defense focused on Newton, there are going to be opportunities to run the football with freshman RB Michael Dyer (73.1 ypg) and speedster Onterrio McCalebb. Auburn led the SEC in rushing with 287.2 yards per game. That’s because of an offensive line that starts four seniors and a junior. The four seniors have combined for 161 career starts. If Auburn can run the ball and control the clock, that limits the number of possessions and places for Oregon’s high-power offense. The key to all of that is the offensive line.
5. Wes Byrum: As a true freshman in 2007, Byrum went to Florida a kicked a field goal on the last play of the game to beat No. 4 Florida 20-17 in The Swamp. Since then Byrum has been one of the best clutch kickers in football. He had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2008, hitting just 11 of 19 field goals. But since then Byrum has connected on 30 of 36 attempts. If the game comes down to a late field goal, this kid has the right stuff to make it.
Final Analysis: The SEC has won four straight national championships but the league has never played a Pac-10 team in a title game. Because of its speed and tempo Oregon presents challenges unlike any team that Auburn, or anybody else in college football, has ever seen. Defensive stops in this game will be like gold. After a 37-day layoff, both teams will come out with a lot of energy–too much energy, in fact. The team that settles down earliest and starts playing their normal game will have a distinct advantage. I think that team will be Auburn. This could be a repeat of the Texas-USC game where somebody gets a defensive stop and scores on the last possession to win. In a close game I give the edge to Auburn.
Final score: Auburn 35, Oregon 31.
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Barnhart and Durham: Wes will be in the studio in Atlanta and I will be out in Arizona as we break down the big game. Please join us starting at 10 a.m. www.790thezone.com
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424 comments Add your comment
Who Are We Talking About Here?
January 10th, 2011
9:46 am
No integrity.
No class.
No honor.
No honesty.
No accountability.
Were you looking in the mirror there when you said that?
Hoopster
January 10th, 2011
9:46 am
Wow. Imagine that. An SEC homer picking an SEC team. I’m wondering how you somehow didn’t try to pick UGa to win this game even when they aren’t playing!
CL
January 10th, 2011
9:48 am
5 reasons why Auburn will win? Nope, there aren’t five reasons or fifty reasons. It just won’t happen. Auburn will self-destruct and reinforce its image as the disgrace of the SEC.
Tweets that mention Five reasons Auburn will beat Oregon for the BCS Championship | Mr. College Football -- Topsy.com
January 10th, 2011
9:48 am
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Olddawg
January 10th, 2011
9:49 am
Ga fan here and I will pull for the Sec, meaning Auburn. Don’t know if Cam cheated or not but a lot of Aubie fans are spending a lot of time rationalizing that he didn’t. Just go win the game and uphold the honor of the Sec.
JB at home
January 10th, 2011
9:49 am
John…….I wouldn’t exactly call them Baseless. There was some smoke. The fire has yet to be proven. Even the NCAA admits in their findings that Cecil Newton Inquired about money for his son’s services at MSU. Now, to whom and to who knew is another question. The Fact that the NCAA is allowing Cam to play with that being ADMITTED TO is a miracle. The statement that Cam knew nothing is laughable. Baseless John, I think not.
Just Hype?
January 10th, 2011
9:51 am
dawgfan you know absolutely nothing about the game. Yes I have watched the film and I see double, even triple teams on Fairley .He runs through OLineman like they are nothing. Maybe you should win some games before you start talking s***!! We’ll see tonight won’t we?
Alphare
January 10th, 2011
9:51 am
Let’s go beat the ducks, Auburn tigers, plainsmen, last but not the least, War Eagle!
Pistol495
January 10th, 2011
9:52 am
With all due respect Tony, Byrum is closer to channeling his inner Nate Kaeding/David Akers than Adam Vinatieri. He has botched a few non-pressure ones lately. He missed one in the SEC champ and didnt attempt one against UGA or ALA. As a matter of fact, he has not been asked to do anything clutch since the KY game. He is a clutch guy but I hope for AUB sake it doesnt come down to him.
DawginLex
January 10th, 2011
9:53 am
who are we talking about here?
No, just looking at your family.
3rdN8
January 10th, 2011
9:54 am
There are Bama fans pulling for AU tonight…..count me as one of them.
Good luck….hope the Tigers blow them away.
and BTW….the SEC needs this one to breakeven in the bowls.
Duck Soup
January 10th, 2011
9:54 am
Anybody betting against Auburn tonight will be buried in disappointment by the 3rd quarter. WDE!
JB at home
January 10th, 2011
9:55 am
All of Russia is pulling for the Auburn coach tonight….LOL
JB at home
January 10th, 2011
9:57 am
Hope the power is on tonight…..Shame to miss this over a little ice and snow…..
KevinM
January 10th, 2011
9:57 am
“DawginLex
January 10th, 2011
9:35 am
slobberknocker,
Replace “Cecil Newton” with “John Wall’s Dad” and replace “Cam Newton” with “John Wall” and replace “Gene Chizik” with “John Calipari” and you tell me John Wall would have played college basketball last year.
The NCAA picks and chooses and makes up the rules as they go along.
They are a joke.
Are you denying that the Southern Cal folks were not saying the same things 6 years ago? They were, trust me. Auburn is foolish enough to believe all the crap, let them believe it.”
John Wall’s dad died years ago….wow. Do some research before you blast.
John Wall paid $$ back before he could play unlike Enes Kanter.
I disagree in that the NCAA would have slapped AU if they had proof. They have enough of a admittance from Cecil that is needed….they allowed it and they will have egg on their face come Monday night. Newton will play well enough to win, move on, and Chizik hangs around long enough to be penalized for wrongdoings…..that’s more accurate.
Oregon winning would be fitting, but I don’t see it happening.
UGASlobberknocker
January 10th, 2011
9:58 am
Dawg in Lex..Hey man I know youre a good Dawg..I read your blogs..and Im not defending the NCAA. Im just saying that for now, like it or not, Auburn has skated, and it appears classless and sour grape-ish to whine now. Thats all.
Dawg '94
January 10th, 2011
10:00 am
Oregon will be the national champions regardless of what happens tonight. If the “War Cheaters” win tonight, they will be giving up the championship to the Ducks within 3 years, IF the NCAA continues to investigate Awburn. That is a BIG if.
Beast from the East
January 10th, 2011
10:01 am
Best of luck, Auburn!
DawginLex
January 10th, 2011
10:04 am
KevinM,
I used John Wall as an example. I know his Dad passed away.
My point is the NCAA can’t even defend their own rules.
Mitch Barnhart, the AD at Kentucky asked them specifically about the Kanter situation and even asked them to explain the differences between the AJ Green, Ohio State 5, Selby, Sidney, Newton and Kanter. They couldn’t. They just fell back on “each of the circumstances were different” crapola.
The NCAA is a freaking joke.
Beast from the East
January 10th, 2011
10:08 am
One of the best cover-corners in the nation coming back for his senior season!
http://www.gatorsports.com/article/20110110/ARTICLES/110119989/1136?Title=Jenkins-to-return-for-senior-season
dawgfan
January 10th, 2011
10:10 am
And what kind of showboat antics can we expect out of Cam tonight? Oh don’t get me wrong. Auburn is going to score some points tonight. I just think Oregon scores more. Cam is going to get his big stats. He’ll have plenty of opportunity to ham it up for the cameras like he loves to do. He’s had some time to think about some new routines. It will be interesting to see what he does.
Everything about this Auburn team makes my stomach turn.
gt
January 10th, 2011
10:10 am
Oregon has the benefit of watching film and seeing what the great minds of the SEC have done unsuccessfully to stop Auburn. They have the benefit of several weeks to study these great minds, it will be like having additional coaches on their staff. Auburn has a weak defensive backfield that are going to have to do a lot of tackling and covering the slants. Auburn’s defense is at the bottom half of the SEC. This is going to be a shoot out and Oregon will get more bullets in the end to shoot. I think Oregon wins this thing. May I add Auburn has escaped games with Clemson, and some other weaker teams at home, even the game with South Carolina in Auburn. This is not a team that blows anyone out as a norm. The Alabama game was a shock, that none of us can explain, in the SEC championship game, Latimore never played.. Somewhere I keep thinking Cam is going to get hurt not unlike last year’s national championship game, where Texas lost its quarterback in the first quarter, that in my mind allowed Alabama to win. If Newton goes down it would be another early night for the television audience. No team in the country depend on less players than this Auburn team. Thin ice.
McDawg
January 10th, 2011
10:10 am
key to the game will be to keep Fairley ON the field-watch him closely and he takes 2 plays off for every big play he makes-if OU gets in a groove they will score some points–but then again so have alot of other teams
billyboy
January 10th, 2011
10:12 am
Auburn has been lucky so far this year. The Tigers should have lost 3 games this year and will lose the National Championship game. Put your money on Oregon. Final score Oregon 38 Auburn 24
DawginLex
January 10th, 2011
10:13 am
And another thing about the NCAA and Enes Kanter.
Tell me how the NCAA President didn’t publicly recuse himself from anything to do with Kanter. He is the President of the University of Washington, where Terence Jones(UK’s leading scorer) and Kanter both originally committed to until switching to Kentucky.
You think he would have been ruled permanently ineligible at UW?
If you do, I have some oceanfront property in Kansas I’d like to show you. It is reasonably priced.
SCAM NEWTON
January 10th, 2011
10:14 am
I am the greatest college football player ever. I also just pulled one of the biggest scams in NCAA football history. I could have played for Georgia but I’m not a very good tight end.
atltiger15
January 10th, 2011
10:14 am
I think i speak for most AU fans on this. If NCAA finds Cam knew about this and AU knew , then you can take everything away, take the heisman away, penalize us for 30 yrs. But when AU went over phone records and all bank accounts over the summer and found nothing thus making Newton starting QB, reason why it took 3 weeks after spring practice. Do you think the backup Trotter was hip to hip to Newton, yeah right. The ncaa found nothing as well. I choose to beleive my team as any of you would if it was your team. I give the university that opened doors for me in the corporate world money each and every year because i owe them something..
JB at home
January 10th, 2011
10:16 am
Georgia does not have the “resources” Auburn has. They are not the 2nd most profitable athletic program in the country for nothing. All their money is on the books legit, if you know what I mean.
3rdN8
January 10th, 2011
10:16 am
what’s the latest scoop on Miles going to UM? Things seem very quiet, but am guessing there is a lot of jockeying for position behind the scenes.
If Miles leaves at this time, it makes it a lot tougher on the LSU AD. Keeping their recruiting class together will be difficult.
If Miles goes, LSU goes after: Pelini?, Malzahn?, Smart?, Mullen? Patterson?, Petersen?
SEC is over-rated, full of cheats and criminals
January 10th, 2011
10:17 am
It’s not just Auburn…UGA, Florida, Bama, Tenn, et. al….You all should be ashamed of the news stories your schools generated the last couple of years….arrests, cheating, $$$ changing hands, jerseys sold, poking people in the eyes, AD’s arrested, and it goes on and on and on. It’s funny to read about you all throwing mud at one another…..YOU ARE ALL DIRTY!
dawgfan
January 10th, 2011
10:17 am
Fairley take plays off McDawg? I’m shocked. The guy has such strong character and is obviously a class guy. I can’t believe that a player who spears unwitting QBs in the back a good 5 seconds after they’ve thrown the ball would take plays off. He must be great because the media says so. They are never wrong about anything.
LMAO
JB at home
January 10th, 2011
10:17 am
atltiger15………………At the end of the day….All of us in the SEC hope you are correct.
KingGator
January 10th, 2011
10:18 am
SEC ROLLS!!
JB at home
January 10th, 2011
10:19 am
10:17@ probably a Techie……That program, football and basketball is on a death watch.
atltiger15
January 10th, 2011
10:19 am
GT
I guess you have your head stuck in the snow this morning….On offense,Newton, MaCaleeb, Dyer, Adams, Zachary, Lutzinkirken, Blake, And the most important 4 experienced senior O lineman Lee Ziemba…I’ll give you the fact that the D has struggled, but the second half has been phenomenal. Ask uga, bama, lsu, usc, clemson, and miss st. Fairley, carter, bynes and stevens are leaders that seem to step on when its nut cutting time..Tell me when you get your head unstuck.
Hal
January 10th, 2011
10:21 am
The key is Newton staying healthy and not getting hurt. Auburn will fold like a deck of cards if he goes out of the game. Otherwise Aubun goes all the way.
JB at home
January 10th, 2011
10:22 am
3rdn8……………….Yes, one of those if he leaves…….Boy, this will screw things up….It’s late in the Game………If Richt has to go next year, I hope it’s after the Florida loss so McGarity will have plenty of time to hire the new guy……
3rdN8
January 10th, 2011
10:22 am
If a two team playoff can generate as much buzz as this one has, can you imagine how much interest there would be in a 16 team playoff?
I’m betting the NFL owners are doing all within their power to see that it never happens.
dawgfan
January 10th, 2011
10:24 am
Greg Mcelroy just picked Oregon on ESPN, but what the heck does he know?
LMAO
3rdN8
January 10th, 2011
10:26 am
JB at home
I predict that if UGA loses to UF next year, the AD will make a move. Probably designate an assistant to serve as interim HC, and begin a coaching search. He could also do like Mal Moore did in 2000. He fired DuBose mid-season, but let him coach the rest of the games.
Not sure which approach is best, but it means a lost year either way.
JB at home
January 10th, 2011
10:27 am
What Dawg fans would be willing to hire a long shot vs a household name? Does he need to be from the south? Head coach exp. a must or from the assit. ranks? Young gun slinger or gray and mature?
Taco
January 10th, 2011
10:29 am
Edumacated what is your sisters phone number? I hope CMR watches tonight to see what big time college football looks like. I see more kids are committing to UGA. They better be good when they get on campus because there has been no evidence of anyone being coached up in many seasons. Go TIGERS!!!!!
Sautee Dawg
January 10th, 2011
10:30 am
I usually pull for the SEC in all Bowl games.
After watching “CHEAPSHOT” Fairley spear Our QB Arron Murray in the back, which shows signs of a COWARD, long after the whistle had blown, I can’t seem to pull for them in this game.
What made the play even worse was Coach Gene Chiznik standing on the sideline cheering him on afterward with his fist raised in the air. Total lack of respect for him and Fairley. This is not what our SEC is all about and to condone this type of play all season long shows lack of respect both Chiznik and Fairley.
The previous 4 Championships won by the SEC were very respectable in both Coaching and respect for the opposing teams.
If it means losing the game to a different conference then so be it.
Have no problem with the Newton scandal, it will work out in the end.
Dawg in Lex said the 2 words in an earlier post that pretty much sums up my thinking also.
Auburn—NO CLASS And that’s on the Coach.
I’ll be sitting this one out too!!
Huh?
January 10th, 2011
10:30 am
“The last time I checked, the US Constitution/ BOR had this inconvenient clause in it :”Innocent until proven guilty” . Wow what a foreign concept on this blog.”
When was the last time you checked? I’ve never seen those words in the Constitution. Maybe you meant the AJC? That’s not the same thing. At any rate, any Constitutional limitations only apply to government sponsored police forces and courtrooms. The NCAA is not an entity of the US government.
As for Auburn, I think they’ll win, but it certainly doesn’t help for Tony to pick them. That’s been the kiss of death for many teams this season.
3rdN8
January 10th, 2011
10:31 am
JB at home
Not sure who would be a good fit at UGA. They may have to go after a young coodernator: Kirby Smart, and Gus Malzahn come to mind.
If Dan Mullen has another good season at MSU, I’d think he’d be the hottest commodity in coaching. I don’t think MSU has the umph to win a bidding war against UGA. I don’t ever see Derek Dooley coaching in Athens.
JB at home
January 10th, 2011
10:32 am
3rdn8……………..If we are really struggling and losing and Florida makes us look lost ( Muschamp will have them foaming, that’s one he MUST win big) that might happen, but keep in mind, Dr Adams is not a knee jerk type. He’s a button down kind of guy, But My guess is Mark will demand a vote of confidence at that point, and I’m saying that won’t happen.
Mike
January 10th, 2011
10:34 am
Boycott the game, NCAA, all sponsors, and ESPN due to the Cam Newton recruitment violations of NCAA rules. Make college football about “true student athletes” not paid greedy unethical professional athletes. Watch another channel tonight!
PMC
January 10th, 2011
10:34 am
yeah but who knows really Tony? It’s been a decade since their last games.
We wait so long between games no one really knows what is going to happen when they kick off.
3rdN8
January 10th, 2011
10:35 am
JB at home
Knee jerk reactions usually don’t end well. I don’t think UGA makes a move as the result of one game, but losing to UF could be the tipping point.
MikeP
January 10th, 2011
10:35 am
Alabama Usually Beats Us Round November
January 10th, 2011
9:33 am
“praying for power outgaes all over the Auburn fan base from 8 pm until midnight-30.
Aburn cheated. Pure and simple. Barners do not desverve to watch their team with a bogas BCS that will be vacatued abyway.”
I can see by your spelling that you got your degree from Alabama, Tuskaloser. Did you study arithmetic there? Auburn has won seven of the last nine Iron Bowls, so there is nothing “usual” about a Bammer win over Auburn in November.