Can the SEC continue its run in the BCS?
Happy Friday, everyone. After all the blogs and all the games and all the discussion since mid-July, it’s hard to believe that we are in the final days of the 2010 season. I was going to do Five Burning Questions to get us into the weekend but with the SEC involved in three bowl games in the next four days, I have only two questions for you this morning:
1. After an 0-3 start to bowl season, the SEC is now 3-4 after Arkansas’s loss to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. How will the SEC finish and can it avoid a losing bowl season?
2. The SEC has won four staight BCS National Championships. Will the run continue Monday night against Oregon in Glendale, Ariz.?
Let’s start with question No. 1: We knew the SEC East was significantly weaker than the SEC West this season but the final numbers were pretty striking. Here are the records of the SEC West teams against the East during the 2010 season:
Alabama, 2-1: (beat Florida, Tennessee; lost to South Carolina).
Arkansas, 3-0: (beat Georgia, Vandy, South Carolina).
Auburn, 4-0: (beat South Carolina twice, Kentucky, Georgia)
LSU, 3-0: (beat Vandy, Tennessee, Florida).
Ole Miss, 1-2: (lost to Vanderbilt, Tennessee; beat Kentucky).
Miss. State, 3-0: (beat Georgia, Florida, Kentucky).
So on the season the SEC West was 16-3 against the East. Four teams went undefeated and only one (Ole Miss) had a losing record.
The SEC West is 2-1 in bowls with Alabama winning the Cap One, Mississippi State winning the Gator, and Arkansas losing the Sugar. LSU plays Texas A&M tonight in the Cotton Bowl while Auburn plays Monday night in the BCS championship game. Kentucky will try to salvage something for the SEC East when it faces Pittsburgh (and interim coach Phil Bennett) on Saturday in the BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham. All three games look like tossups to me and the SEC needs to go 2-1 in order to finish .500 in the bowl season.
Now to the second question. We all know that the SEC has won four straight BCS national championships. When you throw in LSU’s 2003 championship and the 2004 Auburn team that went 13-0 and got shut out, the SEC has been in the national championship picture for seven of the past eight seasons. Here are some tidbits on that run you might find interesting, courtesy of the smart people from the SEC office:
**–A win by Auburn would give the SEC its fifth straight national championship, but just as significant would be the fact that Auburn would be the fourth different school to win a title in that five-year span: Florida (2006, 2008), LSU (2007), Alabama (2009).
**–Since 2006, half of the slots in the five BCS championship games (5 of 10) have been taken by SEC teams. The other five slots were taken by the Big Ten (2), the Big 12 (2), and the Pac-10 (1).
**–There have been 40 sets of BCS standings since October of 2006. In that span an SEC team has been ranked No. 1 in 18 of those 40 weeks. The rest of conferences: The Big Ten (13 weeks), Big 12 (five weeks), Pac-10 (four weeks).
**–In that same 40-week run, 11 of the 12 SEC teams have been ranked in the BCS Top 25 for at least one week. LSU leads that list with 37 weeks ranked. Vanderbilt was not ranked.
**–And finally, the SEC is 7-1 in BCS bowl games since 2006. Here is the breakdown of BCS records by conference:
SEC…………….7-1
Pac-10………..3-1
WAC…………..2-1
Big East……….2-2
Mountain West…1-1
Big Ten…………..2-5
Big 12…………….2-5
ACC………………1-3
Independents…..0-1
That’s a lot of numbers but it points out that the SEC has had an unprecedented run in the BCS since 2006. Now in that stretch it should be noted that the SEC has never faced a Pac-1o team in a BCS bowl. The SEC’s five national championships in the BCS era, which started in 1998, have come against the Big 12 (Texas and Oklahoma), the Big Ten (Ohio State twice), and the ACC (Florida State).
In fact, ESPN.com’s Pat Forde points out that since 1959, the SEC and Pac-10 have met just nine times in bowl games. The score? SEC 5, Pac-10 4.
So, as we leave you and head to Glendale, Ariz., we ask: Will the SEC continue its remarkable run on Monday night?
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Barnhart and Durham: Today we preview tonight’s Cotton Bowl matchup between Texas A&M and LSU and look ahead to next Monday’s BCS championship in Arizona. Glenn Gilbeau, who covers LSU for the Gannett News Service, will join us from Dallas. Noted talk show host Paul Finebaum will join us from Arizona to talk BCS championship. We’ll also have an interview with White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, who grew up in Auburn, Ala., and will be in Glendale pulling for his Tigers. Please join us at 10 a.m. www.790thezone.com
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387 comments Add your comment
BAMA dude
January 7th, 2011
4:39 pm
Bama fans, your jealousy of Cam, Nick Fairly and the entire 2010 season is hilarious, Sore losers…WDE
Nobody is jealous of anything. It’s the utter hypocrisy that has the whole country laughing and making fun of Lee County Tech. Cam is a laptop thief on his third college in three years. Fairley had his transcripts altered in HS and plays dirty as hell. All the while, the Barn Fambly thumps their bibles and Cheezit talks about the lord being on their side. Hysterical.
BAMA dude
January 7th, 2011
4:40 pm
Oh, and that’s not even including the preacher trying to extort money or the #85 ranking out of 120 in graduating the football players.
Patrick Romano WAR DAMN EAGLE
January 7th, 2011
4:44 pm
how2fish,
WAR EAGLE is a battle cry, to clrify they are AU Tigers.
Fairly is a game changer ask, Aaron Murray, Ryan Mallett and Garcia (ALL put out of the game by Lombardi award winner Nick Fairly from Mobile’s Williamson HS). Fairly has an awesome motor and I don’t see any let down in him nor Cam nor the rest of the team as Gene Chizick and the Class coaching staff of the SEC will/do have these amazing Tigers ready I can assure you!
PS Dean, you are just as big of an idiot as Bama Dude & Bama Fan#2 if you think that the 13-0 Tigers only have 3 players. All 11 OFFENSE, DEFENSE and special Teams have contributed hugely this season.
It’s too funny to see these jealous posts from pea brain minded people from Bama, UGA.
Jealousy is too apparent, WDE &
Sorry to hear UGA VIII has Lymphoma AJC is reporting-my buddy Tim Montgomery at Dacula Animal hospital informs me!
BAMA dude
January 7th, 2011
4:51 pm
As we all figured, Harbaugh is headed to San Francisco. Wonder who Stanford might look at?
JdawgT
January 7th, 2011
4:52 pm
Tiger or War Eagle or what ever you want to call yourself they still suck !
Patrick Romano WAR DAMN EAGLE
January 7th, 2011
4:53 pm
Chris Matthews &
Chi Town
You both are infidels and your mother & father weren’t probably married AU is the Class of The SEC…They do not have to defend thier honor to you or anyone, They Have done nothing and the NCAA has not even sent them a letter of investigation you peabrain idiots…
WAR DAMN EAGLE,
AU BY 20+…Blog to me on Tuesday A.M. you idiots…after the crowning of AU as the B2B National Champs for state of AL..
Spock
January 7th, 2011
4:57 pm
You know, I always hated Captain Kirk.
Huh?
January 7th, 2011
5:00 pm
@Bama Dude’s Worst Nightmare (AKA whatever sockpuppet you’re using now)
Do you honestly not realize how petty your posts are? Or… Are you really an irate Dawgs fan just trying to make Auburn fans look like they have no class?
Just one thing.........
January 7th, 2011
5:01 pm
GO Ducks!
Patrick Romano WAR DAMN EAGLE
January 7th, 2011
5:02 pm
JDAWG,
Yes, they suck that’s why we are blogging about them 7 pages deep and the media hype is ALL over them. Maybe whatever we call ourselves is an indication of pride & tradition, something UGA has not seen in a while.
Argument for this AU team as possibly the best we have ever seen…I saw the 1979 Bama goal line stand aggainst Todd Blackledge lead Penn State in the Sugar Bowl & UGA 1980, 1982 with Penn State & Pittsburg lead by Dan Marino w/Coach Dooley as our host, (My dad played with Vince & Billy at McGill-Toolen in Mobile and at Auburn so I had team access and sideline passes to the superdome. UGA’s team was pretty damn great but I don’t think I have seen such a dominate team on Offense and the defense is a little suspect but bends and doesn’t break to a National Title game…
Either way Tiger Town is pumped and full of Pride, WAR DAMN EAGLE…NCS
Spock
January 7th, 2011
5:07 pm
“I saw the 1979 Bama goal line stand aggainst Todd Blackledge”
Chuck Fusina was the Penn State QB.
I was QB at Starfleet Academy when we pated Rigel Seven 52-0
Huh?
January 7th, 2011
5:07 pm
@Patrick Romano WAR DAMN EAGLE
It’s dominant, not dominate.
One is an adjective, one is a verb.
I know… Auburn.
You’re excused.
Don4654
January 7th, 2011
5:10 pm
Don’t think Todd Blackledge was Penn State qb in 79′ Sugar Bowl.
God is in Awe of his mightiest creation, the SEC
January 7th, 2011
5:23 pm
If Auburn wins, it will be because of how great the sec is.
If Auburn loses, it will be because they “didn’t play like an SEC team.”
In any event, win or lose, it will have nothing to do with Oregon.
Apparently, you cannot beat an SEC team – they can only play beneath their level and beat themselves, and “if they’da showed up and played like an SEC team, they woulda won by 50.”
Tell the truth
January 7th, 2011
5:29 pm
Hurray for Oregon and the FBI!!!
Bama Dude's Worst Nightmare
January 7th, 2011
5:36 pm
No Bama Dude what’s hysterical is you getting here claiming some kind of weird moral high ground. You had a player ON YOUR TEAM selling crack! You had ten arrests AFTER your own personal Jesus Saban had come on board (After lying about not taking the job BTW). Where in the world do you get off calling Cam and Fairley names? Focus on cleaning the skeletons out of your own closet, you are so jealous it hurts! You say don’t focus on the past when it comes to your own school’s troubles and scandals, yet in the next breath you keep bringing up Cam’s past. You wanna talk about a hypocrite? All you gotta do is look in the mirror man….
Bama Dude's Worst Nightmare
January 7th, 2011
5:42 pm
Bama Dude I’ll quit bringing up your past scandals and arrests, as soon as you quit using Cam’s against him. Saban is not Jesus and the Tide is dirty as the day is long. Keep pretending Albert Means, Antonio Langham, etc. never happened. We all know who the real cheaters are……
Huh?
January 7th, 2011
6:02 pm
I tried to tell you doofus, but you just won’t listen — will you?
You are an embarrassment to the entire Auburn Family — even Cam.
DJ
January 7th, 2011
6:20 pm
God is in Awe of his mightiest creation, the SEC,
Your post is right on point! The SEC cannot lose…. They’re always better than any other team and that’s why they “give the game away”… From my perspective, they’ve been beaten this bowl season. 4 loses in fact. They’d better hope LSU wins tonight against A&M.
Delbert D.
January 7th, 2011
7:33 pm
Sagarin’s Dec.11th PREDICTOR Rankings of BCS bowl opponents:
BCS – Oregon 97.25 Auburn 90.17
Rose – TCU 91.86 Wisconsin 84.05
Sugar – Ohio St. 90.04 Arkansas 86.23
Orange – Stanford 97.50 Va. Tech 88.07
Fiesta – Oklahoma 88.76 UConn 73.02
For local interest, here are Independence, Liberty and Chick-fil-A
Independence – Air Force 74.94 Ga. Tech 71.24
*Liberty – Georgia 80.25 UCF 75.38
Chick-fil-A – FSU 86.76 S. Carolina 84.52
*Predicted wrong
The predictor numbers include margin of victory in games played. Sagarin says it is more accurate, but the BCS does not allow margin of victory factors; instead, Sagarin’s ELO-CHESS is used for the BCS rankings.
Delbert D.
January 7th, 2011
7:36 pm
For tonight’s game:
Cotton – LSU 84.87 Texas A&M 84.40
Bama Dude Using Aliases Now?
January 7th, 2011
8:49 pm
No What’s embarrassing is that you keep checking back to see what was posted then make some snide remark instead of actually arguing the points that have been made. My Guess is you are Bama dude or some other mullet hiding behind another fake handle. NO ONE CARES WHAT YOU THINK “HUH”!! Or should I say “Bama Dude”……
AU Wins
January 7th, 2011
9:16 pm
Auburn’s going to beat oregon like a rented mule. Oregon hasn’t seen auburn’s speed all year and Cam will run wild on that average D. Fairley? He’ll be in the oregon backfield on a mission the whole night. Auburn 47 oregon 19
One and done- you know it and so do we!
January 7th, 2011
10:56 pm
Get a grip on reality AU fans.
You aren’t a comlete one man team. Fairley is a great if not dirty player also. Cam basically lifted AU in about 6 or 7 games in which AU trailed in the 2nd half. 4 or 5 AU games coulda gone either way. Be honest about it. Its like flipping a coin and the coin landed on heads for AU about 5 times this season. You had quite a bit of luck along the way. You know it and everyone else knows it.
The reality for you guys is that you have a large senior class, about 24 seniors if I’m not mistaken, 4 of your 5 starting O-lineman are seniors, and Cam and Fairley are gone after the bowl game. Most likely Malzahn will probably be gone if not this year most certainly at the end of next season. You also lose half your defense. And that stark reality is that while you’re on top of the world right now next year and the foreseeable future you will crawl right back into the mediocrity for which you are known.
You will be right back to 7-5 or 8-4 and the fact is that you know it, we know it, everyone knows it. So enjoy it while it lasts because next year we will then own you 5 of the last 6 instead of 4 of the last 5.
brokeback jacket
January 8th, 2011
12:00 am
Can the tech NERDS sell out a home football fan and sleep with a real, live woman?
Stewie
January 8th, 2011
12:12 am
And what’s your point, One and Done?
Is it a surprise that Cam lifted AU to several victories? Isn’t that why schools try to recruit the best players? Didn’t Tebow do that for Florida, Pryor for Ohio State, Walker for UGA?
And you’re right, Auburn does lose a lot of talent going into next season. But that talent has gotten them to the national championship game (which UGA hasn’t sniffed since in 30 years). So yeah, this Auburn fan will definitely enjoy it while it lasts, and if we win Monday, I’ll revel in it all the more knowing how difficult it is for any team, especially a “mediocre” one, to win a national championship.
Meanwhile, you and your Dogs may (should?) beat the Tigers next season on your way to 6-9 wins and accomplish a whole lot of nothing, yet again. Congratulations, sport…maybe you UGA fans can once again argue over the merits of keeping Richt/Bobo/fill-in-the-blank coordinator and yiping about how next season is your year, no doubt.
aarh
January 8th, 2011
2:00 am
I’m an SEC fan, but I hate AU!
Crimson Crush
January 8th, 2011
3:42 am
LOL … was that a Barner talking smack about the Dawgs “not sniffing a NC in 30 years” ?
It has been more than FIFTY for fans of the loveliest outhouse on the plains and all it took to do it was for Bobby Lowder to (literally) empty out Colonial Bank and buy enough “talent” to (MAYBE) put em across the finish line . That bill has yet to be fully paid however … and Lowder’s azz is toast . ( he WILL be in prison soon enough ) The Barners CAN”T win no matter what happens Monday night and many of them are in denial or just too stupid to even realize it yet .
If the University of Auburn “wins” in the BCS matchup next week … they will spend the next few decades trying to defend their one and done “title” because the indictments are just getting started here in Alabama . The AU crowd who is now yelling “You have no proof” is going to see the Barn’s pants get pulled all the way to the ground before all this is over . The NCAA won’t be able to sweep all this garbage under the rug . The Fed’s will have it smeared all over their face before it is over .
If the University of Auburn LOSE outright to the Ducks … well then they end up an even larger laughing stock because they will have paid for the best “amateur” talent money can buy … and still botched it .
I will be watching the game but I could absolutely care less one way or another WHAT $CAM and company manages to do with the scoreboard in Arizona Monday night . It is win – win for me either way . I’ll be watching with the complete and utterly satisfying knowledge that the AU idiots have somehow already boxed themselves into ultimately snatching a crushing defeat from what should be the sweet jaws of victory … and most of them are too stupid to even realize it yet .
BoWeevil
January 8th, 2011
4:04 am
Oregon is a damn joke.
Buckeye
January 8th, 2011
8:10 am
All the best to Uga VIII.
Coach Mike Smith is good.
January 8th, 2011
8:31 am
`
Go Falcons,
………………….. three to go !
SEC Fan
January 8th, 2011
8:47 am
Delbert D.
January 7th, 2011
7:36 pm
For tonight’s game:
Cotton – LSU 84.87 Texas A&M 84.40
So much for Sagarin…LSU 41-24
Sagarin predicted LSU with a 1.006 margin of victory.
Actual outcome was LSU with a 1.708 margin of victory.
Margin of victory only adds accuracy to the prediction if the coaches don’t know that MOV is used in the formula. Otherwise, a team can climb to the top of the rankings by running up scores in cupcake games. It’s still a guessing game, no matter how good the algorithm might be. I would include MOV with a 10 point cap. Seems like a good compromise.
The other problem with computer polls is that they are incapable of detecting when a team has a flat performance that should not be assigned full weight. An example is Oregon’s game this year against Cal. Sagarin would have never predicted Appy State over Michigan or James Madison over VT. Nor would Sagarin know that almost anyone can beat VA Tech when they’re not at home and haven’t played a game in over 2 weeks. That’s why Vegas sticks to public opinion rather than computer rankings.
I still maintain that these computerized polls, which attempt to model the opinion formation of a knowledgeable football fan, are more accurate than would be a single elimination playoff system.
SEC Fan
January 8th, 2011
8:49 am
“Otherwise, a team can climb to the top of the rankings by running up scores in cupcake games.”
I forgot to mention that this is why Oregon gets such a high Sagarin Ranking.
SEC Fan
January 8th, 2011
8:52 am
@Bama Dude Using Aliases Now?
You haven’t made any “points”. You’ve only spammed the board with your incessant whining.
Joel
January 8th, 2011
9:09 am
UGA is an embarassment to the SEC
Crunch the Numbers
January 8th, 2011
9:39 am
Sagarin MOV vs. Actual MOV
Rose: Close
Sagarin – TCU by 1.093
Actual – TCU by 1.105
Sugar: Close
Sagarin – OSU by 1.044
Actual – OSU by 1.192
Orange: Not Even Close
Sagarin – Stanford by 1.107
Actual – Stanford by 3.333
Fiesta: Not Even Close
Sagarin – Oklahoma by 1.216
Actual – Oklahoma by 2.4
Independence: Not Even Close
Sagarin – Air Force by 1.052
Actual – Air Force by 3.857
Liberty: Flat Out Wrong
Sagarin – Georgia by 1.065
Actual – UCF by 1.666
Chick-fil-A: Close
Sagarin – FSU by 1.027
Actual – FSU by 1.529
From this sample, Sagarin gets 3 Close, 3 Not Even Close and 1 Flat Out Wrong. Might as well flip a coin if you’re betting point spreads.
Crunch the Numbers
January 8th, 2011
9:47 am
I would also add that picking spreads accurately in bowl games is easier than in regular season games, because there is no home field advantage calculation. HFA is the most nebulous factor in estimating point spread for an upcoming game.
Hey Crimson Crush
January 8th, 2011
10:03 am
How’s that 24-0 choke job in the Iron Bowl workin out for ya? That’s what I thought. To think a Bammer comes on here claiming we pay players. If that’s not the pot calling the kettle black, I don’t know what is. So jealous it hurts….
UGA89
January 8th, 2011
10:13 am
CALM DOWN!
Au you say bama sux
BAMA you say AU sux
Why don’t you both just suck each other!
Mike Bobo 17 INT
January 8th, 2011
10:52 am
Even if Auburn pulls it off, they may have to give it back once the ongoing investigation is completed by the NCAA. I know for a fact that Cheese Nip is thinking about it in the back of his little mind.
You SEC homies never watch football west of the Mississippi, but you may want to review the past 5-7 years of PAC-10 vs. SEC play and examine some of those scores, including Auburn and Tennessee.
Basically, I give Auburn the edge and agree with the line of 2.5, but do not think Oregon is going to just step aside. I predict Newton will be knocked out ot the game by the first half, because some Oregon 3rd string senior CB or LB will be assigned to take him out at all costs, just like FSU did to Lattimore, then FSU proceed to debone South Carolina.
Like I have said before, focus on teams and not conferences.
Mike Bobo 17 INT
January 8th, 2011
10:53 am
Any takes to give me Oregon and 7.5, since the SEC is going to dominate?
roger noell
January 8th, 2011
10:55 am
OLD DAWG FAN
I’M MORE OF A SEC FAN
THAN AUBURN FAN
IT PAINS ME TO SAY THIS
GO TIGERS
Atlanta Gator
January 8th, 2011
11:01 am
While I certainly have mixed feelings about the whole Cam Newton controversy, I, for one, will be cheering for the Auburn Tigers Monday night. And, yes, I am fairly tribal in my affinity for the SEC. As I’ve said before, if the Gators are my family, then the SEC is my tribe, and while we may squabble among ourselves, I will virtually always support the tribe.
Oregon ain’t my tribe.
War Damn Eagle!
Atlanta Gator
January 8th, 2011
11:08 am
“You SEC homies never watch football west of the Mississippi, but you may want to review the past 5-7 years of PAC-10 vs. SEC play and examine some of those scores, including Auburn and Tennessee.”
Uh, Mike Bobo 17 INT, you are aware that the state of Arkansas is situated on the west bank of the Mississippi River, aren’t you?
LEROY
January 8th, 2011
11:18 am
I still think Murray’s too short!!!
SEC Fan
January 8th, 2011
11:29 am
The fact is that the SEC is special because of it’s geographic location. The Conference basically encompasses what was once the Confederate States of America. I am by no means a Confederacy fetishist, but there is a regional bond formed by our immediate ancestors having lost the Civil War and endured the Reconstruction period in American history.
I am old enough to remember when there was significant regional bias blatantly exhibited by national sportswriters against all teams in the South. I still recall my father telling me the stories of Bama shocking the football establishment by defeating the traditional Northern and Western football powerhouses in the Rose Bowl in the early 1900’s.
There is school pride, and there is regional pride. I’m not surprised that regional pride is more prevalent in the SEC. Make of that what you will. I am opposed to the recent moves to re-form the collegiate sports conferences based upon projected television revenue, rather than by geographical region. Not only would such a move require greatly expanded team travel in order to play the regular conference schedules, it would dilute the aspect of regional pride for the fans of college football.
I am of the opinion that ESPN and the NFL are slowly, but surely, destroying the very traditions that have made college football such a great sport. Once they’re gone, we’ll never get them back.
Chillahill43
January 8th, 2011
11:59 am
SEC fan
you are damn straight. The South Will Rise Again!!
And Hell no we will never Forget!
The rape and pillage that the north brought upon this fair land by their acts of Northern Agression still haunts this region considerably. And its still perpetrated on us by the likes of ESPN. – the newyork and new england programming network.
The SEC is the best because we have to be… Its the way it is… Tradition is who we are.. And you damn yankees can go back north if you dont like it 85 and 75 go north as welll, SEC is thr best football conference period. Bar none!!! RTR. WDE GYHD chomp chomp souie pig etal
pb
January 8th, 2011
12:14 pm
SEC Fan and Chillahil43:
The damn Civil War is over. Get on to something else. There is no bias against the South by ESPN or national networks— only in your mind!
By the way, I am a Georgia grad and SEC fan, but hope Auburn gets whipped. Why? just because I don’t like them or Cam Newton. Just my opinion.
MikeP
January 8th, 2011
12:25 pm
Have y’all seen those green shirts with the yellow “script A” on them that the bammers are wearing? I saw a cool variation on that today: The same shirt with “Because we couldn’t” printed under the yellow bammer A. LMAO!
Callaway Pulls A Switcheroo
January 8th, 2011
12:31 pm
Brent Callaway, 5-star OLB, has just changed his commitment to AU from Alabama! War Eagle!! Happy Cam Newton Day here in Auburn!!!!!!! Roast The Ducks!! WDE!!