Time for BCS to re-think its use of computer polls
New York–I’m up here for a few days doing some work for The CBS College Sports Network and getting ready for the College Football Hall of Fame dinner tonight.
It’s a great event and just about everybody who works in the sport is in attendance. We should be talking about another great college football season and the anticipation of what looks to be an incredible BCS championship game between No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon.
But what are we talking about today during this large gathering of college football people? We’re talking about a damned computer that wasn’t programmed right.
The problem is simple: One of the computers (Wes Colley’s rankings) that is used in the BCS formula did not properly update its information. The formula was missing one game. As a result LSU was No. 10 and Boise State was No. 11 in Sunday’s final standings. The error was caught, corrected, and new standings were released on Monday with the position of the teams reversed.
The error did not have an impact on the bowl lineup. But I promise you that it sent a shiver down the collective spine of the BCS commissioners. What if this error had happened near the top of the standings? I’m not talking about the top two. That disaster would be obvious.
But what about this? Wisconsin was No. 5 and Ohio State No. 6 in the final BCS standings. If those two spots had been reversed, Ohio State would have gone to the Rose Bowl instead of the Badgers.
What if your job was to tell Ohio State that a mistake was made and that they, after the invitation was extended on Sunday, were not going to the Rose Bowl after all? What kind of storm would that cause? A big one.
Give Wes Colley (brother of former Georgia player Will Colley) some credit. He caught the error and fixed it. But Colley is the only one of the six computer polls who release his formula so that others can check the math and the methodology. The people who run the other five computers simply say “trust us. We got it right.”
But if they don’t get it right, who will know?
If you already hate the BCS, this just solidifies your opinion and throws another log on the fire of disdain you have for the process. If you’re not quite sure this certainly undermines your belief in the system. Transparency remains a major problem in the BCS . The coaches vote in secret until the final ballot. The computers, except for Colley’s, work in secret and ask us all to trust them.
Sorry. That’s not good enough.
This is a problem for the BCS, which is already being hammered on a lot of different sides. People are writing books called “Death to the BCS.” People feel passionately about this issue.
This needs to get fixed. Now.
Tell the computer guys that they have to release their formulas or allow an independent person to double check their math each week. There have to be more checks and balances in the system if it is going to remain credible.
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465 comments Add your comment
MikeP
December 7th, 2010
10:31 am
The computer part should be tweaked to prevent errors like this one, but it should also be strengthened vs. the human polls in the calculations. Too many people vote their hearts and not their heads. TCU at #3 is a joke.
The BCS is not perfect but it’s a lot better than what we had before. Most years we get a logical matchup of the two best teams.
A playoff, while the idea seems attractive, would have its own drawbacks.
KR
December 7th, 2010
10:43 am
Is it really the BCS that’s the main problem, or is it more to do with the polls themselves? I’m not opposed to a 16 team playoff format, but if you’re going to use polls to determine the top 16 teams, what exactly have you accomplished in comparison to today’s format?
I suppose we could go to 16 conferences, make each team play everyone else in the conference and let the winner of each conference move on to the playoffs.
How would you account for performances in out of conference games? What if the conference champ won all the conference games and lost all of the OOC games, while the runner up lost only one conference game and won all of its OOC games?
Seriously, I don’t have an answer. If I did, I might be very rich…
ARdawg
December 7th, 2010
10:51 am
Playoff. 8 teams, 7 games and 3 weeks. It’s really not that complicated. It’s the Cartel that wishes for it to be complicated. High School teams in Georgia have a playoff and the finalist play 15 games.
Pulpwood Smith
December 7th, 2010
10:52 am
When are you gonna change your moniker from “Mr. College Football” to “Mr. Mike Slive’s Propaganda Slinging Lap-Dog”?
ARdawg
December 7th, 2010
10:54 am
With an 8 team playoff the yearly argument is going to be who is the 9th team that got left out? Guess what, you have the 3rd team every year now. What recourse do they have? Absolutely zero. Right now the answer is “don’t be that 3rd team”. The answer then will be don’t be that 9th team and quit whinning about it. You should have made a better case for yourselves
ARdawg
December 7th, 2010
10:56 am
Pulpwood
Excellent post!
Barnhart is a “Yes” man and a lapdog. Thats a shame really, some people used to think he was a good journalist and all ’round “sports guy”. Not so much nowadays
robodawg
December 7th, 2010
11:00 am
Why have SIX computer polls anyway? Wouldn’t one be enough? All any of them can do is take the same dumb stats and weight them differently. So put together a formula that is open and fair and stick with that. Relying on independent guys to secretly compute their own rankings and then averaging them is a cop-out.
Even better would be an RPI-type process like in basketball.
GTBob
December 7th, 2010
11:04 am
@3rdN8, thats a good point on the coaches poll. Ive always wondered how coaches who really don’t have a chance to watch many games except their own, can vote on the strength of other teams they don’t play. Plus, there have been reports in the past that some coaches just have their assistants fill out their vote for them. They could probably use a better poll then that one.
Mobile Dawg
December 7th, 2010
11:06 am
3rdN8, “I remember an OSU lineman that was interviewed after OSU beat Miami in 2003 for the National Championship. He was asked about his experience during the week leading up to the game. He stated: “It was a lot of fun….the banquets, and all….the school and coaches made millions, and we got a nice tee-shirt””
I was taught when I was young, work hard, go to school and get an education, establish your priorities, and good things will happen. Work hard and good things will continue to happen. Guess what, it worked for me. I guess these “atheletes” should probably do the same. After they get their education, good things can happen. Personally, I’m tired of shoveling my money, energy, and all the good things in life toward a bunch of self serving hypocrites. I will enjoy the things in life that set me free from hence forth. Like I said in an earlier post, the “Hartman Fund” will get a letter. I’m worth more than a few points to an institution.
Paul in RDU
December 7th, 2010
11:07 am
Bama Dude @10:04 – Your 32 team “Super Conference” where the richest programs compete and the players get endorsements already exists. It is called the NFL.
juice soucer
December 7th, 2010
11:08 am
Answer Pulpwood Smith’s question Tony. You make a post Tony and then run and hide from all the comments…what’s the point.
TrishaDishaWarEagle
December 7th, 2010
11:09 am
The Legends poll should be 2/5, get rid of the coaches poll(what other marketplace allows your competitors to rank you), the AP should come back in as 1/5, Harris 1/5 and computers 1/5.
Thats more complicated than a playoff but i am being realistic here..at least it is doable.
Actually, AU is #1 in the Harris, Legends, and AP…and computers..so it would have worked out the same, but in principle I disagree with your competitors getting to rate you when the stakes are big.
Mobile Dawg
December 7th, 2010
11:11 am
Good one Paul. If the atheletes are good enough to go into the NFL draft and earn a living I have no problem with that. If they’re not, they stay in school, get their education, and appreciate that they got a free one….Until we quit feeding the monsters, they will only grow bigger, and more self serving….
TrishaDishaWarEagle
December 7th, 2010
11:11 am
@juice soucer
Is that you cammie?
Can I have some more juice?
Cecil Newton
December 7th, 2010
11:13 am
One of the computer polls is actually run by some clown in Oklahoma who has zero background in mathmatics- he’s just a dude who really likes college football.
TrishaDishaWarEagle
December 7th, 2010
11:13 am
name stealing is lame…
Mobile Dawg
December 7th, 2010
11:15 am
Trisha, I can’t believe someone hasn’t already told you how obscene your posts sound, the ones with you “cammie juice” comments, and I know I must be in the gutter or somewhere equivalent.
Mobile Dawg
December 7th, 2010
11:15 am
OK, sorry Trisha, that happened to me a couple of days ago….”War Eagle”….
TrishaDishaWarEagle
December 7th, 2010
11:16 am
Mobil dawg, thats not me..for what it’s worth
Mobile Dawg
December 7th, 2010
11:19 am
Saw your 11:13. Name stealing is common, I should have known that wasn’t your MO….Just another “pain in the a$$” problem with todays society….
LHardingDawg
December 7th, 2010
11:20 am
Pulpwood – I concur!
TrishaDishaWarEagle
December 7th, 2010
11:21 am
I’ve posted with so many names that I can no longer remember if I’m me or not…
Maybe I should just drive Ms Dooley?
Pony Express
December 7th, 2010
11:22 am
The problem is not the computers Tony, the problem is the money involved in a system that allows Scam and AU, despite the bishop’s pay for play admission, to be in ANY bowl game, much less the *NC game. No one should watch any bowl games. Perhaps if the ratings were just horrible the NCAA, the SEC, and the BCS would get the message. WE already have one professional league . . . . the columnist in Orlando got this right, it is a BCS Mess and fans won’t know how to hold their nose and clap at the same time. ESPN got it right, its a wet kiss on the ring finger for AU instead of the sanctions it deserves. The whole thing is a scam, no newton pun intended.
BAMA dude
December 7th, 2010
11:22 am
Paul in RDU
December 7th, 2010
11:07 am
Bama Dude @10:04 – Your 32 team “Super Conference” where the richest programs compete and the players get endorsements already exists. It is called the NFL.
Exactly. The rub is that players are supposedly being exploited without proper compensation. Since all of the very best players would go to the schools allowing endorsement deals, those looking for nothing more than an NFL developmental league would have it. The rest of the schools would compete with and against true student athletes.
jarvis
December 7th, 2010
11:25 am
“remain credible”? When did it achieve credibility?
jarvis
December 7th, 2010
11:26 am
Oh…hey Trish.
How’s the pelvis?
Georgia Peach
December 7th, 2010
11:26 am
@BAMA dude
Not a bad idea, but why bother to involve academics? Just let the NFL start a bush league as an alternative to CFB. Then all of the Reggies and Cams wouldn’t have to go through their BS motions of pretending to be “student-athletes”. Meanwhile, we could still have CFB without all of the ringers.
Trooper Taylor
December 7th, 2010
11:27 am
Don’t like computers. They don’t take no money!!
3rdN8
December 7th, 2010
11:28 am
and the argument is…….
Not whether the players are being exploited or not (I personally think the players have a great deal….doors will open for them that just aren’t there for the average student)………but rather do the players believe they’re being exploited. I think this is what agents, etc…are whispering in their ears.
Like the commercial says: “It’s my money, and I want it now!!”
Mobile Dawg
December 7th, 2010
11:29 am
Bama dude, the rub is just that. Why should they get paid. They should complete their education and move into the work force, or be good enough to go to the NFL, and guess what, enter the work force. We all make choices, they (the atheletes) made theirs.
Ted Striker
December 7th, 2010
11:37 am
People who sit down and watch the BCS “championship” are effectively voting to keep it by their actions. If viewers would turn away in droves, there would be incentive for powers that be to change it.
There’s plenty of football to go around in Dec/Jan and that’s why I sit that game out every year based on principle. I don’t miss it. At all.
Pony Express
December 7th, 2010
11:40 am
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college_uf/2008/11/backup-qb-camer.html
ACC Fan
December 7th, 2010
11:40 am
Hi “Fire Paul” Tony works for CBS not ESPN …. their competition. Last time I checked CBS carries lots of college football.
3rdN8
December 7th, 2010
11:41 am
@ Ted Striker
Agree that fans are responsible. If we stayed away in droves, didn’t watch on TV, etc…change would come, and come soon.
But…it’s like standing near a train wreck in progress….I just have to peek.
dawgfacedboy
December 7th, 2010
11:45 am
The BCS should re-think alot of what it does.
Openmind
December 7th, 2010
11:46 am
Any coaches and medias poll are biased by any means. I wish using all computer polls. Let’s say several computer polls present their data and methods, all 120 schools AD(coaches) give their votes, we may finally list the FIVE computer polls that most AD(coaches) favors. Use these FIVE computer polls to decide the ranks!
Lindsey
December 7th, 2010
11:48 am
The way I see it, all that matters is money. This year in the college football national championship we have 2 teams lead 2 young men whose quality of character is questionable (to say the least). James was arrested in February following an incident with his former girlfriend in which he was charged with one count of strangulation, two counts of fourth-degree assault and two charges of physical harassment. The punishment? One game..against New Mexico. Meanwhile in Newton’s college career, he has been accused of being a thief and a cheat whose recruitment is now being investigated by the NCAA and the FBI. It was proven that his Dad was trying to get payment for him playing. The punishment? Nothing. Just seems to me at the end, if a player can be a meal ticket, that is all that matters. GO DAWGS!!!
Bob/ Okeefe
December 7th, 2010
11:49 am
My My Something is radically wrong with our country.We have millions of people out there with no jobs or hope of getting a job for some time and Jeter is worrying about a 4th year on $15 mil/yr contract,the dang computor screwed up the BCS standings,LSU was ranked over Boise State,wow that really is big Tony.Thats even bigger than our economic problems.Lets give all the revenues from all the bowl games to the needy this year and college football will not miss a beat and I bet Tony won’t miss any paydays either.
BAMA dude
December 7th, 2010
11:52 am
Mobile Dawg
December 7th, 2010
11:29 am
Bama dude, the rub is just that. Why should they get paid. They should complete their education and move into the work force, or be good enough to go to the NFL, and guess what, enter the work force. We all make choices, they (the atheletes) made theirs.
Let me pose a question to you- why shouldn’t they? People only consider those who actually become NFL stars. What about the great college players who don’t? For every Reggie Bush or Cam Newton there’s a Tyrone Prothro or Jay Barker. Hell, you’re a UGA guy. How many DJ Shockley jerseys flew off the shelves? He got nothing for it and had to put in boatloads of practice time in order to keep his scholarship. By contrast an orchestra scholar can play at a local symphony in the evenings, getting paid for doing the same thing their school gave them a free ride to do. Every other student on campus is a financial liability to the institution, the elite athletes are an asset. How is that fair in any way?
If you want another reason to distrust the computer rankings... - VolNation
December 7th, 2010
11:53 am
[...] More reason: Time for BCS to re-think its use of computer polls | Mr. College Football [...]
dawgfacedboy
December 7th, 2010
11:54 am
Yes let’s pay the colleg athlete. Let’s not ask them to take advantage of an education they would otherwise never have access to. Let’s not ask them to go to class and take advantage of the free tutorig offered to them. Let’s not ask them to learn to be adults by managing their studies along with practice (time management). Let’s not ask them to be responsible for their own actions. Let’s just pay them.
I was a college athlete folks and I am strongly against paying college athletes.
BAMA dude
December 7th, 2010
11:55 am
Georgia Peach
December 7th, 2010
11:26 am
@BAMA dude
Not a bad idea, but why bother to involve academics? Just let the NFL start a bush league as an alternative to CFB.
Answer: money.
The brands are already built, the fan bases established, the 100,000 seat stadiums in place and filled weekly. A NFLDL would lose money and probably fail to stay afloat. Incorporating big time college ball would be more profitable for everyone involved and more enjoyable to the fans.
jackyldo
December 7th, 2010
11:56 am
It’s all about the money ? If there was a pool created with a minimum for the 16 teams that make the tournament and shares growing each level to the NCS,, schools would still make the money and the money from the networks would double.
You’d have 8 games that really meant something in the 1st round not match ups of Uconn and Oklahoma.
3rdN8
December 7th, 2010
11:57 am
BAMA Dude
Disagree on the other students being a liablity: (a) they pay tuition, and (b) many of them are responsible for the University receiving grants, etc.
dawgfacedboy
December 7th, 2010
11:57 am
Where will it end? High school football programs and athletic departments make a ton of money off their athletes every Friday night. Not millions of course but it’s all relative. Are we suddenly going to pay them too?? Where does it end?
Those who are good enough will make millions one day. If they are smart with their money they will never have to work again. Those who don’t make it to the league will do what the rest of us had to do. Get degrees and use them to help us find a job.
Georgia Peach
December 7th, 2010
11:58 am
BAMA dude,
Just allow the student-athletes to play in professional games to make their side money. That would be the equivalent of your “orchestra” analogy. Musical students don’t get paid for in-school performances.
BAMA dude
December 7th, 2010
11:59 am
dawgfacedboy
December 7th, 2010
11:54 am
Yes let’s pay the colleg athlete. Let’s not ask them to take advantage of an education they would otherwise never have access to. Let’s not ask them to go to class and take advantage of the free tutorig offered to them. Let’s not ask them to learn to be adults by managing their studies along with practice (time management). Let’s not ask them to be responsible for their own actions. Let’s just pay them.
I was a college athlete folks and I am strongly against paying college athletes.
Were you an elite football player who barely qualified academically and was only allowed in the school because of your athletic ability? Even with a degree many of these kids don’t have the ability to make a decent career for themselves. If their likeness is making big time money for the institution then they should be able to profit from it as well. Going back to Shockley- think some local restaurants/car dealers/sporting goods stores might have given him a buck to stump for them during his hey day at UGA? Of course they would, and what would be wrong with that?
BAMA dude
December 7th, 2010
12:00 pm
Georgia Peach
December 7th, 2010
11:58 am
BAMA dude,
Just allow the student-athletes to play in professional games to make their side money. That would be the equivalent of your “orchestra” analogy. Musical students don’t get paid for in-school performances.
Of course not, and they shouldn’t. I’m suggesting that they should get to have endorsement deals. Title IX would preclude the college from paying them.
Bama Fan #2
December 7th, 2010
12:01 pm
Former Alabama Head Football Coach Gene Stallings will be honored in the College Football
Hall of Fame tonight in New York City!! Well deserved honor for the nicest and classy man
who coached the crimson tide to its 12th national championship in 1992!! Coach Stallings we
miss you and only wish Johnny could be with you on the award stand but he with you in your
heart and spirit!!! ROLL TIDE!!!
BAMA dude
December 7th, 2010
12:02 pm
3rdN8
December 7th, 2010
11:57 am
BAMA Dude
Disagree on the other students being a liablity: (a) they pay tuition, and (b) many of them are responsible for the University receiving grants, etc.
You’re right. I should have said that other scholarship students are a liability. Don’t know how many grants are given out because of any particular student, though. A player like Cam Newton sure as hell makes a big difference in football revenue.