What if Auburn and Oregon both lose?

First of all, don’t tell me that it can’t happen. Don’t tell me that No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon can’t both lose on championship Saturday. We’ve seen it happen.

In 2007 I remember writing the BCS bowl scenarios and mentioning what would happen (that No. 7 LSU could jump to No. 2) if No. 1 Missouri lost in the Big 12 championship game and No. 2 West Virginia lost to Pittsburgh. I had a BCS bowl scenario to account for that but added: “Of course that will never happen.”

Well, it happened. No. 1 and No. 2 both lost on Championship Saturday and when the numbers came out on Sunday we had one-loss Ohio State (which did not play that Saturday) and two-loss LSU (which beat Tennessee for the SEC title game) playing for the national championship.

So we’ve got to have a plan. We may never implement the plan because I don’t think Auburn will lose to South Carolina and Oregon will lose at Oregon State. Still, here are your BCS Bowl Projections.

First, remember the process: After the two teams are chosen for the BCS championship game, the two bowls which lose their designated champions go to the front of the line and get their replacement picks. Then the remaining bowls fill in their designated conference champs (ACC to Orange, Big 12 to Fiesta, etc.) After that, the selection order will be Sugar, Orange, Fiesta until the bowls are full.

 IF AUBURN AND OREGON BOTH WIN
BCS Championship: No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 2 Oregon. Easy. No brainer.

Rose:  Wisconsin vs. TCU. By BCS rule, the Rose has to take TCU to replace Oregon. Wisconsin goes as the Big Ten champ.

Sugar: Arkansas vs. Ohio State . Sugar takes highest ranked SEC team (No. 7) as replacement for SEC champ Auburn.  Then the Sugar gets the first pick and takes the No. 6  Buckeyes.

Orange: Virginia Tech-Florida State winner vs. Stanford. Orange gets the ACC champ. Its choices will be between the Big East champ and No. 4 Stanford (11-1). If West Virginia wins the Big East and finishes 9-3, the Orange might take the Mountaineers.
Fiesta: Oklahoma-Nebraska winner vs. Big East champ (UConn or West Virginia). The Fiesta would be very happy if Stanford was available.
 

IF AUBURN LOSES AND OREGON WINS

BCS: TCU vs. Oregon. This assumes TCU moves up ahead of one-loss Auburn, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. The final numbers could be interesting.

Rose: Wisconsin vs. Stanford. With TCU gone to the big game, the Rose can replace Oregon with Stanford. This would make the Rose Bowl folks very happy.

Sugar: South Carolina vs. Ohio State. Gamecocks go as the SEC champion. Sugar chooses Ohio State, the highest ranked team at No 6.

Orange: Virginia Tech-Florida State winner vs. Auburn. Tigers would be coming off a loss but Orange would take them at 12-1.

Fiesta: Oklahoma-Nebraska winner vs. Big East champ
 
IF OREGON LOSES AND AUBURN WINS

BCS: TCU vs. Auburn

Rose: Wisconsin vs. Oregon. Oregon is 11-1 but wins the tiebreaker for the Rose Bowl berth because it beat Stanford (11-1) head to head.

Sugar: Arkansas vs. Ohio State. Arkansas gets the Sugar at No. 7 if Auburn wins. Hogs are out of the BCS (probably to Capital One in Orlando) if Auburn loses.

Orange: Virginia Tech-Florida State winner vs. Stanford

Fiesta: Oklahoma-Nebraska winner vs. Big East champ
 
IF OREGON AND AUBURN BOTH LOSE

BCS Championship: TCU vs. Wisconsin. I think the poll voters move Wisconsin ahead of Stanford into the No. 2 position. Just call it a hunch.

Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State. Oregon will be disappointed going to the Rose Bowl. Very strange.

Sugar: South Carolina vs. Stanford. South Carolina goes to Sugar as SEC champ. Stanford is the best available team. The Sugar can’t take Auburn for a third rematch. It could take a 9-3 West Virginia if it wins Big East championship.
Orange: Virginia Tech-Florida State winner vs. Auburn

Fiesta: Oklahoma-Nebraska winner vs. Big East champ

So what do you think? What matchups do you like and which matchups make no sense to you?

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224 comments Add your comment

Reality Sets In

November 30th, 2010
6:57 am

The very best scenario isn’t all that great. That said, it would be a fitting end to this season if every one of these last few games ended in an upset. Maybe Boise can make it to the Big Game after all?

Pay to Play

November 30th, 2010
7:03 am

Sparty

November 30th, 2010
7:07 am

Should not 11-1 Michigan State
win the head to head tie breaker over 11-1 Wisconsin?

We need a REAL playoff system.

4th and Long Gone

November 30th, 2010
7:10 am

Funny, but all the bowl games turn out better if at least one, or both, of the top two teams lose. If they both win, only the championship game has any appeal at all. Even funnier, as mediocre as the ACC was, the ACC champ vs Stanford is as good as any, besides the championship.

Dooley the Vol

November 30th, 2010
7:13 am

I agree w/ 4th and long, bowl matchups are much more more interesting from a fan point of view.

chazzo

November 30th, 2010
7:18 am

GO BADGERS!!!!

larrymunsonthe3rd

November 30th, 2010
7:19 am

I think Georgia should be in the National Championship game end of discussion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oakdale Dawg

November 30th, 2010
7:26 am

Year after year, all this system creates is a bunch of crappy “BCS” bowl games. Even if it does produce the right championship game, the rest of the matchups are typically much less interesting than the old system produced. If there were a playoff, the games would be far more fun to watch and the winner of the such a gauntlet would be a legitimate champion who proved it on the field. Assuming an 8 team playoff, Could you imagine TCU getting the opportunity to play and beat No. 6 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon and No. 1 Auburn? Any team winning 3 games like that would have nothing to apologize for. If the other divisions can handle a playoff, so could D-1.

AJ Greene

November 30th, 2010
7:29 am

I’m going to catch 20 balls in whatever Toilet Bowl we play in, then sell my jersey to the highest bidder.

@Oakdale Dawg

November 30th, 2010
7:36 am

So this is what you’d want? B/c this is the old bowl system:

- Rose: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
- Orange: Nebraska/Oklahoma vs. Florida State/Virginia Tech
- Sugar: Auburn vs. Stanford
- Fiesta: Ohio State vs. Arkansas
- Cotton: TCU (the Southwest Conference Champion) vs. Michigan State

The BCS CG is a two-team playoff. The other BCS bowls are just exhibitions.

Oakdale Dawg

November 30th, 2010
7:39 am

That is a little better than what we will get with the BCS. That system also sucked though. What I would like to see is an 8 team playoff using the bowls and played over 3 weekends starting right after Christmas.

Reality Sets In

November 30th, 2010
7:40 am

@Oakdale Dawg

Playoffs are boring. I’d rather see cage matches with no-holds-barred, hand-to-hand combat between each team’s starting quarterback. That would be some good TV!

Oakdale Dawg

November 30th, 2010
7:41 am

And I should add the current system doesn’t always get the matchup right. So a championship game without the right teams doesn’t create a true champion.

Reality Sets In

November 30th, 2010
7:47 am

But seriously Oakdale Dawg, how long would you be willing to wait between playoff games to allow fans of the winning team to purchase tickets and make travel arrangements for the next game? How many fans do you think will follow their team through an entire playoff tour? Once you get your 8 team scenario, the pressure will mount for 16 teams, then 32, then…

Bama Fan #2

November 30th, 2010
7:47 am

You can hope and pray!!!!!!!!!!!! RTR

Reality Sets In

November 30th, 2010
7:48 am

If South Carolina upsets Auburn, does that make them the best team in the SEC? Do their previous losses simply disappear into thin air?

S GA AU FAN

November 30th, 2010
7:53 am

Oakdale Dawg

November 30th, 2010
7:54 am

It can work. It only affects 4 teams for more than one game. Your point about expanded playoffs is well taken and such a decision would be made by the same jackleg Presidents and Conference Commissioners who protect the current system.

3rdN8

November 30th, 2010
8:00 am

Only one way to ever get a playoff. Don’t go to the games, don’t watch the games on TV.

The University Prez(s) would have one drafted by the end of September.

The Harsh Truth

November 30th, 2010
8:06 am

Perhaps TCU & Boise St. should play to determine the best “overrated” team in the country. FYI:Schedule a couple of SEC opponents and you will see why you are overrated.

ARdawg

November 30th, 2010
8:10 am

Tony is a Gomer

travy

November 30th, 2010
8:17 am

i feel for you tb for having to wade through all that mess but this whole process is an embarrassment. just play the games and stop the madness. playoff please!

RomeDawg

November 30th, 2010
8:18 am

I only hope this matters in 5 years because I fear we find Cam Newton was paid and Auburn vacates this years wins and student whom never met Newton are forced to pay for his sins…uhem…his father’s sins.

I am glad Boise (We Don’t Schedule Any Competition) State is out of the equation!

Paul in RDU

November 30th, 2010
8:19 am

Yesterday TB’s column was what would happen if Auburn loses. Today it is what would happen if Auburn and Oregon lose. Either Tony is keeping his best stuff for CBS or he’s having problems coming up with ideas for columns.
Tomorrow’s column: Likely bowl match ups for the SEC & ACC teams

Rob P.

November 30th, 2010
8:21 am

Tony…I was listening to Gary Danielson yesterday, and he thinks if both Auburn and Oregon lose that the voters will put Auburn at #2 and it would be TCU-Auburn. I don’t see how Wisconsin can play for the National Title over Auburn. Put their schedules up against each other and Auburn has done more to earn the bid.

The Scoop

November 30th, 2010
8:30 am

Your blog link sucks….big time!

Football Wife

November 30th, 2010
8:31 am

I agree with Oakdale–where is Michigan State in this mix? Having beat Wisconsin and sharing the Big Ten Conference Championship should mean a BCS Bowl berth. Instead, Wisconsin is going to the Rose Bowl, Ohio State(who LOST to Wisconsin) is going to the Sugar and Michigan State is on their way to Orlando.

There’s got to be a better way to decide the BCS!

Remember us? You should.

November 30th, 2010
8:31 am

This could happen. That could happen. Oh Chicken Little, the sky is falling.

By the way, Georgia Southern is playing in the second round of the FCS playoffs this Saturday. Playoffs? What a concept.

DC

November 30th, 2010
8:35 am

If they both lose AU is so strong in the computers they will be #2…I always thought if AU did lose and Oregon won..that AU would be #3..their strength of schedule is that good to hold off all those other chumps..possibly even get #2 still..but they would need human voters to pull for them a bit…

root4au

November 30th, 2010
8:37 am

AU should go to championship game win or lose. Just look at who we have beaten compared to any other team. NOT even close…

3rdN8

November 30th, 2010
8:39 am

I’ve posted this before….but no one in the BCS seems to be listening.

We shouldn’t be having this discussion.

If some conferences have championship games, and others don’t, then the only fair thing is to set the bowls matchups this week. This setup is totally unfair to AU, as it was to Bama and Texas last year.

ct556

November 30th, 2010
8:40 am

War eagle!!!

Bama Bill

November 30th, 2010
8:45 am

It is obvious that Auburn, the SEC and the NCAA do not have the stomachs for properly investigating the circumstances of Newton being an Auburn Tiger for the year, but what shame it will cause all three down the road when the facts surface ? Two follow the money questions: Why did Florida not re-recruit Newton and Why did Newton go to Auburn ? Newton and his family know the answers !

jumbeauxtiger

November 30th, 2010
8:50 am

Somebody will be very upset, and I don’t blame them, about being left out of the BCS title game if both Oregon and Auburn lose. That would be a mess but I don’t see it happening.

College Football Rules............

November 30th, 2010
8:50 am

There is one other part of the 2007 scenario that everyone forgets. Virginia Tech was #1 in the computers but the beauty contest of the polls overruled the logic of the computers and LSU jumped a bunch of teams they had no business jumping.

If 2007 was not enough reason for a playoff, nothing will ever be.

Ben

November 30th, 2010
8:54 am

It’s now the official period where the BCS and college football ruins everything that was great about it for 3 months.

Championship game ONLY 6 WEEKS AWAY!!!!

Way to keep some competitive continuity.

BCS and it’s supporters need to go the way of the dodo. TCU now in the Big East. Laughable.

msecon

November 30th, 2010
8:54 am

Harsh Truth and RomeDawg….do a little research. Boise and TCU can’t GET matchups (with few exceptions) because the overrated SEC and Big 10 teams won’t TAKE them. Boise has been publicly offering “one and dones” (i.e. they’ll come to your place, with no return trip to boise) but nobody will take them.

One exception? UGA and Boise are playing at the Dome on Sept. 3 for the Chick Fil A kickoff classic. We’ll see just how overrated the SEC..uh, I mean…Boise is then!

"Let's get real"

November 30th, 2010
8:58 am

Let’s get real..there is only one match up left of unblemished teams with a high powered offense and good enough defense and that’s Auburn vs Oregon (screw TCU and their weak schedule). Who wouldn’t want this game? I want the playoffs too, but this is a great matchup and the other bowls are good enough to watch, and most will. So I hope both Auburn and Oregon both win.

It's ok if it's not UGA?!?

November 30th, 2010
8:59 am

So Auburn going to the BCS Title game without winning the SEC Championship would be ok this year but it wasn’t when UGA was in the discussion back in 2007?!?!

Reality Sets In

November 30th, 2010
9:00 am

@msecon

BS. And no, that doesn’t stand for Boise State.

Reality Sets In

November 30th, 2010
9:04 am

It’s been a while, but I thought that Georgia lost to both South Carolina and Tennessee in 2007? Did anyone outside of Athens actually think that Georgia belonged in the BCSCG in 2007?

Arguing for a playoff system is not the answer for a team that can’t win it’s regular season games.

3rdN8

November 30th, 2010
9:05 am

It’s ok if it’s not UGA?!?

no…it was wrong then as well

msecon

November 30th, 2010
9:05 am

Reality Check:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/284222-boise-state-attacked-for-soft-schedule-but-no-bcs-teams-will-play-them

Do a quick google search, theres a bunch out there. Boise would knock Auburn to its arse with decent D and simply outscoring them. TCU’s D would just shut down Auburn. TCU has more NFL starters on D this year than any other team in college football…most analysts are saying 8 or 9 of their starters will be drafted.

Gbal

November 30th, 2010
9:07 am

Reality Sets In –

“How long would you be willing to wait between playoff games to allow fans of the winning team to purchase tickets and make travel arrangements for the next game? How many fans do you think will follow their team through an entire playoff tour?

Fans follow the NCAA Basketball tournaments on short notice. True, you probably get a lot more neutral fans that just want to be there for the event but there would be no trouble filling up those venues. All sellouts and imagine the TV ratings and revenues.

Personally, I would like to see 16 teams in a tournament.

> Top 16 teams per the current BCS ranking system.
> Top 8 seeded teams get the first round games at their home (campus) field. Do this Mid December.
> Sponsors would come out of the woodwork to back these games at the campus setting and it puts some meaningful games on the campus for the fans.
> This would leave 8 teams (7 games)to be played at predetermined bowl sites over a 3-4 week period. (beginning las week DEC/ 1st week JAN)

Can you imagine all the excitement ($$$) that would be generated.

Now we are wrapped up only in which two teams will finish 1&2 really…

This syetem you have teams 8 teams fighting it our for top seeds and home first round.

Another 8 fighting to get in top 16….

We all know its all about money, but you can’t tell me that a playoff system like this or similar would not generate more money and interest than the current bowl system.

Me personally…. I’ll probably really tune in to 2, maybe 3 bowl games this year and MAYBE keep up with another 1-2. With a 16 team playoff you can bet I would tune in to at least 12 if not all games. It would be incredible TV rankings.

Reality Sets In

November 30th, 2010
9:08 am

@3rdN8

Why was it wrong in 2007? Georgia was 11-2 and LSU was 12-2. LSU defeated both of the teams that had previously defeated Georgia. How did Georgia qualify to go to the BCSCG over LSU?

3rdN8

November 30th, 2010
9:14 am

msecon

Count me in as a believer. I think BSU, and TCU can hold their own with anyone. I watched Utah maul my Tide two years ago…and that was after Bama went 12-0 in the SEC regular season.

It’s shame we have to speculate about this.

Zebra

November 30th, 2010
9:14 am

Poor poor Bammers. All they have left from this smoldering ruin of a season is to hope Aubie gets spanked.
A falloff of epic proportions .

Reality Sets In

November 30th, 2010
9:14 am

@msecon

I figured losing to a lousy WAC team would shut you whiners up. I guess not.

@Gbal

You can play 5 basketball games in one day in one arena. A basketball team can easily play 3 games in one week. Basketball isn’t football.

3rdN8

November 30th, 2010
9:16 am

Reality Sets In

It was my understanding that UGA didn’t get consideration because the didn’t win the conference. Goes back to my point about it being unfair for some teams to play conference championships, while others don’t.

Bravesfan79

November 30th, 2010
9:17 am

BOYCOTT GOING TO THE BOWL GAMES… ITS THE ONLY WAY TO FORCE CHANGE!