What happens if Auburn loses to Alabama but wins SEC title?

Okay. This is pure speculation but that is what we do here at Mr. College Football.  Consider this:

If No. 2 Auburn beats Alabama on Friday and then beats South Carolina in the SEC championship on Dec. 4, then things are pretty simple: The Tigers will be 13-0 and will play somebody—probably Oregon—for the BCS national championship on Jan. 10 in Glendale, Ariz.

But what happens  if Auburn LOSES to Alabama and then wins the SEC championship to finish 12-1? That leads me to two more questions:

Question No. 1: Can Auburn, at 12-1, get into the BCS championship game ahead of 12-0 Boise State or 12-0 TCU?

Question No. 2: Will the ongoing NCAA investigation into the recruitment of Cameron Newton and the uncertainty that comes with it have any effect on the voters in the human polls?

Let’s look at Question No. 1: I think the answer is yes. The key is how far Auburn falls in the BCS Standings if it loses to Alabama. My belief is that if the game is competitive and Auburn loses close, then the Tigers will drop to no worse that No. 4 (ahead of No. 5 LSU). In that sense Auburn really needs for LSU to beat Arkansas (in Little Rock)  and stay at No. 5 because the poll voters probably won’t drop them below a team they beat head-to-head (24-17). Auburn is very strong in the computers (No. 1 in five of the six computers). TCU does not play on Dec. 4 while Boise is playing Utah State (4-7).

So if Auburn wins the SEC championship, I think they can jump from No. 4 to No. 2 in the final BCS poll on Dec. 5.

Unless…….

Question No. 2 is more intriguing. My own belief is that absent a smoking gun, you can’t let the investigation impact the way you vote in the polls. It should be based upon play on the field until there is solid evidence that Auburn or Cameron Newton broke the rules. But human beings vote in the polls. By definition they are subjective.

If the choice is among 12-1 Auburn, 12-0 Boise State and 12-0 TCU for a No. 2 vote, who do the pollsters choose? Do they take a one-loss team from the conference that has won four straight national championships? Or do they use the controversy surrounding Newton as an excuse to give one of the little guys a chance?

I’m just asking the questions.

Now if Auburn loses to Alabama AND loses to South Carolina, that opens up another whole can of worms. Then I’ve got the LSU people calling me and saying: “Why not us at 11-1?”

We’ll cross that bridge if we come to it.

My advice to Auburn: Win both games and leave no doubt.

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372 comments Add your comment

Ed

November 23rd, 2010
6:56 am

some things are more important than $aban

November 23rd, 2010
6:57 am

Enter your comments here

Diocletian

November 23rd, 2010
7:04 am

More ruminations about the Situational Ethics Conference. It pays to cheat and if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying

T2

November 23rd, 2010
7:07 am

Tony… It’s GA – GA Tech week in Atlanta. You write for the ATLANTA newspaper. Why keep writing about AU and inserting Cam in the article? Oh that’s right cause your Atlanta teams are in the “who cares” hate week game… Haha!

Auburn will take care of both teams and there will be no controversy! Cam will win Heisman and all will be well.

Special K

November 23rd, 2010
7:09 am

Yes, Auburn will loose to BAMA. After that, being a “God Fearing” BAMA fan, I really don’t care what happens to them. ROLLT IDE!!!!

Dooley the Vol

November 23rd, 2010
7:11 am

I hope they loose both games, I would hate for them to have the NC revoked in Feb when the NCAA gets there s^%$ together.

CPJ the Jerk

November 23rd, 2010
7:12 am

Joshua Nesbitt for Heisman !!!!!!!! How is that working out!!!

MURPHY

November 23rd, 2010
7:14 am

Wont happen. Spurrier will beat Cam and the boys.

The Auburn Hillbillies

November 23rd, 2010
7:14 am

The Auburn Hillbillies
Come and listen to a story about a kid named Cam,
A liar and a thief, but Auburn didn’t give a damn
Then one day he got paid to play the game
And out of nowhere the investigators came
NCAA that is, judge and jury, Committee on Infractions

Well the first thing you know Auburn decides to go “all in”
Cheating didn’t matter just as long as we can win
Glendale, Arizona is the place we want to be
So we threw out the rulebook and called ourselves “family”
The Auburn family that is, yes we cam, “lean on me”

Well now it’s time to say goodbye to Cam and all our wins
He’ll play in the NFL with that same s.h.i.t. eatin’ grin
How in the world could we have been such fools,
Now we have to pick up the pieces of what’s left of our school

Sanctions that is, reduced scholarships, bowl bans

We’ll be back now y’hear?

Msd

November 23rd, 2010
7:17 am

What is it about bama fans not understanding the difference between loose and lose? Hard to believe.

Saint Simons

November 23rd, 2010
7:18 am

(((( 49 – 31 ))))

HAHAHAHAHAHA

SSIDawg

November 23rd, 2010
7:19 am

LSU can NOT play for the national championship because they didn’t win their own division much less their conference…that’s what the national media told us Dawgs not too long ago.

Cheezy

November 23rd, 2010
7:22 am

If that happens, they’ll probably go to the Sugar Bowl. The only problem that I see with this scenario is that if they lose to Bama, they’ll be that much more likely to also lose to SC.

Bring

November 23rd, 2010
7:22 am

we’re #1 in rushing offense!!! Woo hoo!

#119 in passing offense. #61 in scoring offense. We would have lost to Duke if not for a lucky pick-six and a missed chip shot field goal. Duke looked like the superior team most of the day.

We’re #24 in time of possession though! We rule! The #1 team in the country? They are #108 in time of possession. The #2 team? #84. Kind of an overrated stat maybe?

The most hilarious moment Saturday was when we ran that old PJ “draw them offsides” play on 4th down and both our A-backs moved at the same time, sending *us* back five yards. It’s year three folks. PJ is busy blaming Chan for not leaving him with good recruits, all the while accepting every bit of credit for the success accomplished by the best recruiting class in GT history. Meanwhile, in year three, his team still doesn’t exhibit any of the “nastiness” or discipline he claims is demanded of his players.

No playmakers, No excitement. Half-empty stadium. A tiresome, repetitive, antiquated offense. No toughness, no leadership, mistakes galore. Competing with Duke and Sun Belt schools for athletes.

This is Paul Johnson Football.

Lilburn Dawg

November 23rd, 2010
7:23 am

But is it the same answer if Auburn BEATS Alabama but then loses to SC in the SEC Championship game??? Would that change your prediction?

Cheezy

November 23rd, 2010
7:24 am

@SSIDawg

The national media was just kidding. Winning your conference has nothing to do with playing in the BCSCG. You only need to end the season ranked number 1 or number 2.

Gen Neyland

November 23rd, 2010
7:24 am

The computer polls won’t penalize Auburn as harshly as the humans will when Alabama beats them Friday but who knows what’s what until Sunday.

Majo

November 23rd, 2010
7:27 am

You Bama fans need to get up off your sister, brush your tooth, get out of the trailer, and go look for a job.

Not a Tech or UGA Fan.....

November 23rd, 2010
7:28 am

LSU losses this week so the thought of them playing in the BCS game is a mute point. Unless the clowns that run the BCS want a lawsuit then they better not even think about a one loss team jumping Boise St or TCU. I’m sure the people in Big 10 bamby pamby land are saying the same thing this week about a possible Wisconsin or Ohio St being the one loss team to play in the BCS.

Cheezy

November 23rd, 2010
7:28 am

Lilburn Dawg

November 23rd, 2010
7:23 am

“But is it the same answer if Auburn BEATS Alabama but then loses to SC in the SEC Championship game??? Would that change your prediction?”

That would be a real mess. LSU would be the undisputed best team in the SEC (assuming they remain undefeated), while South Carolina would hold the SEC Championship title.

If Auburn loses either game, then they aren’t going to Glendale.

[...] The key is how far Auburn falls in the BCS Standings if it loses to Alabama. My belief is that if the game is competitive and Auburn loses close, then the Tigers will drop to no worse that No. 4 (ahead of No. 5 LSU). In that sense Auburn really needs for LSU to beat Arkansas (in Little Rock) and stay at No. 5 because the poll voters probably won’t drop them below a team they beat head-to-head (24-17). Auburn is very strong in the computers (No. 1 in five of the six computers). TCU does not play on Dec. 4 while Boise is playing Utah State (4-7). So if Auburn wins the SEC championship, I think they can jump from No. 4 to No. 2 in the final BCS poll on Dec. 5. (Tony Barnhart, AJC) [...]

No Dawg in the Fight

November 23rd, 2010
7:32 am

To Auburn Hillbillies: ROTFLMAO

Mirk Racht

November 23rd, 2010
7:39 am

In response to “Bring”:

Think about the football team THUGA puts on the field. 96% of the players are academically provisionally accepted, with Adams and his cronies knowing full well that they will use up all their coaching and tutors and elligibility and then have their asses kicked out on the street and soon be pushing grocery carts around Atlanta looking for a warm place to sleep. What a pitiful way to run the State’s flagship university. I am going to this next week’s game where the Ga THUGS will undoubtedly whip my North Avenue Scholar Athletes once again. Brawn and brainless win out over brains any day of the week when you are talking mayhem on the field. But once again I am hoping that Tech stomps their sorry asses.

egeagle

November 23rd, 2010
7:39 am

Listening to the LSU-Ole Miss game last week, Danielson was already making a case for LSU to go as a 1-loss SEC team. Funny how that works, isn’t it. NOW it’s NOT a hindraqnce.

OkefenokeeDawg

November 23rd, 2010
7:41 am

“Then I’ve got the LSU people calling me and saying: “Why not us at 11-1?.” We’ll cross that bridge if we come to it.”
**********************************
No, you media guys better BLOW that bridge up if you come to it.

In ‘07, Les Miles led the charge by saying in an ESPN interview, “I don’t see how Georgia can get in the BCSCG when they didn’t even play for their own conference title game.”

I’m sure the media will remind him of those words if he starts lobbying for his team to get in the Big Game.

Bruce

November 23rd, 2010
7:43 am

TB, Lets say that Oregon and Auburn both lose this weekend and Auburn loses in the SEC title game, which I would love to happen, leaving the only 2 undefeated teams (Boise State & TCU) this would be a nightmare for the BCS but I’m sure they have put safe guards in to prevent this from ever happening. If you remember last year the BCS didn’t want Boise or TCU to play the Big Boys because they were afraid what would happen. I wonder how many teams would jump over them with teams that couldn’t win their own conferences outright? We have seen this once before with Nebraska and look at the results of that game which was boring boring boring. We need a playoff system put in place.

Later Vacated

November 23rd, 2010
7:47 am

Tony, you are the only person in America who keeps waiting on “solid evidence” that Newton (and Auburn) broke the rules. Auburn is a national disgrace and its behaviour is shameful. Name one other school (even in the SEC) that would brazenly play an ineligible player.

Dontavius Supremo

November 23rd, 2010
7:48 am

‘Bama rolls this week and Auburn crashes, so get out the crystal balls! Just as an aside, I believe there are at least five teams in the SEC (Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina) that could beat Boise State rather easily.

Dawg Tired

November 23rd, 2010
7:51 am

If I was a criminal defense lawyer, I would love to have Tony on the jury because you seldom prosecute anyone when you have a “smoking gun.” Those defendants plead guuily and ask for mercy. Fortunately for the rest of society, most people have enough sense to look at the evidence and convict guilty folks to get them off the street. All I can say about Tony’s views about what is and is not “evidence” is WOW! In his eyes everyone is innocent even when Daddy admits he “did some things wrong.” I’m assuming Tony is one of those folks who thinks Daddy is not closely enough involved with the Son of the Preacher Man to be considered his agent. Amazing.

arrested development

November 23rd, 2010
7:51 am

SS: Saturday night, under the lights, your team sucks and gets a major beatdown on national TV. Now THAT’s a HA-HA.

Atlanta Gator

November 23rd, 2010
7:51 am

Gen Neyland is exactly right in his comment @ 7:24 am.

Right now, Auburn is riding a wave—-a wave that consists of “the benefit of the doubt,” simply because no other FBS major program appears to be as strong as the Tigers. Take away the Tigers’ undefeated record, however, and the “benefit of the doubt” evaporates. Other concerns like Cam Newton’s eligibility and his father’s shenanigans now become the critical factors in the human pollsters’ analysis.

Frankly, if Auburn didn’t already have these lurking problems, the Tigers would probably already be number 1 in the BCS rankings and polls, not number 2. If the Crimson Tide adds a loss to the Tigers’ record, look for the Tigers to sink to 5th or 6th in the BCS standings and polls. As long as Oregon, Boise State and TCU remain undefeated (and Wisconsin remains a one-loss team), a one-loss Auburn will not get an invitation to the BCS Championship.

I don’t pretend to know the truth about Auburn’s Cam Newton problems, but I do know that Auburn and its alumni have a history of engaging in pay-for-play. If the Tigers lose either of their next two games (Alabama, South Carolina), the human pollsters will subtly penalize them, and they will not get the benefit of the doubt in the BCS selection process.

Book it.

maroonseedymon

November 23rd, 2010
7:52 am

God-Fearing BAMA fan! now there is a big-time oxymoron! (look it up special k…you can find it not far from how to spell Mississippi and you should pass that on to your athletic administration! IF y’all have one!)

Danny G

November 23rd, 2010
7:54 am

Doesn’t matter. Auburn’s season will vanish soon enough.

Atlanta Gator

November 23rd, 2010
7:55 am

OkefenokeeDawg—-

Relax. As far as most CFB fans are concerned, the “fail to win your own division” rule is still valid and enforceable. As it should be.

Tomsjeep88

November 23rd, 2010
7:56 am

Why not ask if South Carolina loses to Clemson, yet upsets Auburn in the SECCG, will Big East fans be screaming that an unranked 4-loss team shouldn’t even BE in a BCS bowl? Oh wait, you asked about a 12-1 Auburn getting in. I guess a silver-toned ring is better than no ring at all. Ask LSU, they have two.

OkefenokeeDawg

November 23rd, 2010
7:57 am

All I hope is Saban gets his boys to go after Fairley’s knees (yes both) the next play after he piledrives the QB or RB. For a pic of Fairley’s, throw-the-player-down-and-land-on-him-with-all-of-my-weight- method (also called pile-driving), please clink on link below.

http://dogbytesonline.com/richt-has-no-comment-about-hits-in-emotionally-charged-game-39072/

Karma’s gonna be a bitch for Mr Fairley . . .

Atlanta Gator

November 23rd, 2010
8:03 am

OkefenokeeDawg—-

Never wish for injury to any player, no matter how “deserving.” Karma, my friend, has a well-known sense of irony in these matters.

On the other hand, I think it would be perfectly acceptable for you to wish that one of the Tide’s lineman punch the SOB in the mouth. That would be the more direct approach.

gt

November 23rd, 2010
8:03 am

This Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour story and the Cameron Newton story have a strange similarity only in the Mansour story the imposer pulled it off. The NCAA has been about perception too long to turn around now. It is the way they balance their books. What a great opportunity to allow a lesser team into what they call fairness and push their brand. You think they need the SEC market to be stoked any more, it is max out now. Not one more ticket or television viewer will be added next year or even this year if an Auburn team goes to the big dance. They have to artificially spread the wealth. In five years I predict a school in Mexico that doesn’t even exist today,will be knocking on the door of the BCS.

D Fence

November 23rd, 2010
8:03 am

LSU – SOL. Remember “you didnt even win your division, much less your conference”. Sounds quite familiar hey.

AU’s magic ends anyway in T Town. And dont gimme the 6-1 stuff. Most of your 6 wins were against some bad Alabama teams of Dubose and Shula.

Cam

November 23rd, 2010
8:14 am

= no Heisman. Dream on.

Best of the Blogs | MrSEC.com

November 23rd, 2010
8:20 am

[...] The key is how far Auburn falls in the BCS Standings if it loses to Alabama. My belief is that if the game is competitive and Auburn loses close, then the Tigers will drop to no worse that No. 4 (ahead of No. 5 LSU). In that sense Auburn really needs for LSU to beat Arkansas (in Little Rock) and stay at No. 5 because the poll voters probably won’t drop them below a team they beat head-to-head (24-17). Auburn is very strong in the computers (No. 1 in five of the six computers). TCU does not play on Dec. 4 while Boise is playing Utah State (4-7). So if Auburn wins the SEC championship, I think they can jump from No. 4 to No. 2 in the final BCS poll on Dec. 5. (Tony Barnhart, AJC) [...]

the real Old Gold

November 23rd, 2010
8:21 am

Auburn has the best team that money can buy but that doesn’t mean a win out!

DIRTY FAIRLEY

November 23rd, 2010
8:23 am

No way we lose. Cam’s dad has told me & Cam that he has already paid I mean spoke to the officials who will be doing the game on friday & said everything has been arranged in order for the War Eagles to have a great day including allowing me to HIT LATE & PILE DRIVE THEIR QB

GO WAR EAGLE

Jacket Backer

November 23rd, 2010
8:24 am

Bring…right on the money about Paul Johnson!

BG

November 23rd, 2010
8:25 am

Uh they play in the sugar bowl. Duh

Mike

November 23rd, 2010
8:28 am

What happens is Boise or TCU will play Oregon for it all.

SecIsFootball

November 23rd, 2010
8:30 am

What happens if they lose to UA? The family will view their season as a failure because beating Alabama is what these people revolve their lives around. Regardless, if AU does win out and win the BCS NC, that along with the Heisman will be stripped not too long after.

Topp Dogg

November 23rd, 2010
8:31 am

Heres to Nick Fairleys being carted off the field with career ending knee injury, a start to a great New Year . Roll Tide

Paul in RDU

November 23rd, 2010
8:33 am

A loss will drop Auburn in the “human polls” but will not drop them much in the computer polls. There are a few reasons for this. The computers shouldn’t take into account when in the season a loss occurred – unlike in the human polls were a late loss is more important than an early loss. There are also different sets of computer polls – the ones that the inventors use and the ones that the BCS uses. Compare Auburn’s rank in the version of the Sagarin index used by the BCS and the original. The BCS computer polls don’t take into account margin of victory – a 1 point Auburn loss to ALA would be the same in these polls as a 20 point beat down.
What fraud this whole thing is.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm

mike

November 23rd, 2010
8:35 am

So much hate for Auburn and Cam. You goobers talk like the game has already been played. Well Cam just move on the the next level. Forget these folks stuck in Atlanta.