Our first BCS Projections. What are yours?
We are less than a month from Selection Sunday so it is not too early to make our BCS Projections. These projections are based on the major players involved winning out . W e know that won’t happen but if it does, I want to give you an idea of how the process is going to work.
BCS championship: Oregon vs. Auburn. Oregon still has to win on the road at California and on the road at Oregon State. Auburn has two tough SEC games with Georgia at home and Alabama on the road. If this is the matchup, don’t think we’ll have a lot of complaints except from the precincts in Fort Worth and Boise who may go undefeated and not get a shot. This would be a good year for a four-team playoff, don’t you think?
Here are the rest of the projected BCS Bowls:
Rose: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Sugar: LSU vs. Boise State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State
Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Here is how we get there.
The two bowls who lose their designated champions to the BCS title game get the first two picks after the BCS title game is set:
Rose (which lost No. 1 Oregon). The rules of the new BCS contract say that the Rose has to take No. 3 TCU or No. 4 Boise State as a replacement pick if one of those teams qualifies for an at-large berth. BCS expert Jerry Palm tells me that it is still possible for Boise to jump back to No. 3 and in that case the Rose might take the Broncos as its replacement pick.
Sugar (which lost No. 2 Auburn, the SEC champ) Takes 11-1 LSU. That’s a no brainer.
Big 12 champ (Nebraska) is placed in the Fiesta.
ACC champ (Virginia Tech) is placed in the Orange
Big Ten champ (Wisconsin) is placed in the Rose
So the BCS championship is full and the Rose Bowl is full.
Now the selection order, which is determined before the season, is Sugar, Orange, Fiesta. Remember that to be considered for a BCS at-large bid you have to finish in the final top 12 and win at least nine games.
Sugar: They could take a 11-1 Ohio State whose only loss is to Wisconsin. But at the end of the day the Sugar will take the highest ranked team they can get. That will be undefeated Boise State which gets a chance to test itself against one of the best defenses in the country. Or it could be undefeated TCU if Boise goes to the Rose.
Orange: You could take 11-1 Stanford, 11-1 Michigan State or 11-1 Ohio State. It’s an easy choice. You take the Buckeyes and all those TV sets that will turn on to watch them.
Fiesta is left with Pittsburgh, the Big East champ.
Understand that if Oregon or Auburn lose down the strech it will open up the argument of whether or TCU and Boise should both play in the big game or if a one-loss team from one of the power conferences should get one of those spots.
So what do you think of the BCS matchups? Do any of those games interest you? Is there a team getting left out that is more deserving than the 10 on this list? The floor is yours.
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269 comments Add your comment
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
10:53 am
Gator, I did..so i get a little defensive when I keep seeing people saying Auburn is a backup choice for GA Parents. I got accepted to Ga Tech also. I chose Auburn because the campus is not in a ghetto and the ME program is national respected almost as well as Tech’s. I never recall seeing UGAs Undergrad programs being nationally ranked..just the MBA and Law Programs.
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
10:54 am
I ain’t never had nobody steal my screen name…
But I still can’t find my dadgum pants!
MURPHY
November 9th, 2010
10:57 am
Atl Gator,
My point is::I dont know that Clean is a correct adjective to use for a football program in this day and time.
PETER NORTH
November 9th, 2010
10:59 am
Why are the television networks so obsessed with Boise State?
Texas Christian is a non-BCS team ranked # 3 and you hear far
less about their merits.
If Auburn or Oregon lose down the stretch…do the TV networks
promote #4 Boise State over #3 Texas Christian? If so…would it
be fair to say there is media bias against a conservative Texas
school?
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
10:59 am
If AU plays the Ducks, check out AU’s #1 ranked o-line and those itty bitty guys they have on defense in oregon (a 170 lb db or corner trying to bring down cam and Dyer? not gonna happen often). AU would put up 500+ yrds rushing on big O. Could we outscore them? maybe, maybe not, but It would be a shootout..
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
11:03 am
It’d be a shootout alright. Can’t neither one of us play a lick of defense.
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
11:06 am
@PETER NORTH
TCU is just a Cinderella wannabe. Everybody knows that BSU is the REAL Cinderella team.
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
11:06 am
if you can score 65, defense is a little overrated..
WashingtonDCduck
November 9th, 2010
11:07 am
Fiesta Bowl – Pittsburg vs. Nebraska… Uggghhhh. Yuck. I love college Football, so much that I’ll probably catch a ton of the game on tonight (Northern Illinois at home hosting Toledo, big MAC matchup). But having a real ugly PITT team playing an up and down Nebraska team in the Fiesta Bowl, really? Man, this system is broken. All the while, it’s possible Boise St. or TCU get left out of the party, geez? That’s messed up. I’m not a huge BSU fan, love the coach, but hate most everything else about that program but to leave them out of the BCS and the Big East champ goes BCS partying instead – wow.
I do like the idea of Boise St. being matched up with LSU in the Sugar Bowl, that would be a great game. The ratings would be spectacular, and that would be a showcase game for the Tigers to impose their defensive will on BSU, and also a great chance for Kellen Moore to show they are able to put up points on the mighty SEC’s best defensive front.
OREGON and Auburn, ok. That’s fine with me, I’d prefer to play Alabama but obviously after their loss in Baton Rouge that ‘aint happening. Great in for Miles, and their offensive burst in the second half really shocked me. The Ducks and Tigers would be the best matchup I think. BUT, I’m not sold on the Tigers going into Tuscaloosa and winning. That will be a real bear fight.
OREGON: @ CAL (the Bears are jeckle and hide, tough at home and their ‘scout team’ team shows up on the road, so we’ll see) ; home vs. Arizona (their offense seems to be reeling after Stanford game, they have a bye week before Ducks, this was once a top 10 team this year, and their defense is still an ‘A’ unit with muscle in the middle and speed on the edge); @ Oregon State in Civil War (throw out all records, a VERY tough ball game for the Ducks. Corvalis is foaming at the mouth already to knock their hated brother out of the big party).
Finally, Wisconsin and TCU in Rose could be a great game. Not the huge offensive numbers you’d see in title game with U of O and Auburn, but two great coaches with great defenses.
It’s a shame Stanford would get left out of all of this. That’s a damn good football team, and Andrew Luck is the real deal.
droopydawg
November 9th, 2010
11:14 am
TrishaDishaWarEagle: Make sure you keep your windows up while driving in Auburn, Alabama. There is a danger of having your eye put out when the school throws a diploma at you through your window as you drive through town.
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
11:14 am
MURPHY—-
Clearly, many, if not the vast majority of student-athlete disciplinary matters are handled in private. That doesn’t mean that there’s anything scandalous in the handling of such matters. Because of the federal student records confidentiality law, the colleges can’t legally comment on these matters. How many times have you read in the newspapers that a college athlete was benched for “unspecified violations of team rules?” The federal records confidentiality law is the primary reason for that. The only time these matters usually wind up in the papers is when the kid involved was charged with a crime or caught in some other public incident. Then it becomes a matter of public record; even then the smart universities refuse to comment on the discipline meted out.
And, yes, all programs have problems. Unfortunately, to a large degree, that’s unavoidable. The true measure of a program’s compliance efforts is what they do when the problems arise. The better programs deal with the problems in a straight-forward manner. The foolish ones try to hide it or avoid dealing with it. You may get away with that once or twice, but when it does hit the papers that will only make the public reaction worse.
For a university that receives over half-a-billion bucks in research money, and has a $90-100 million athletic program involving 21 teams and over 300 student-athletes, trying to protect one screw-up is just not worth it. Anyone who is a genuine risk or repeat-offender needs to be cut loose. There’s a heck of a lot more at stake than a couple of football games.
BAMA dude
November 9th, 2010
11:14 am
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
11:06 am
if you can score 65, defense is a little overrated..
Of course, if you CAN’T score 65 when the ref hands you two TDs you didn’t earn, a backup QB throws two picks deep in his own territory, you block a punt, and return a kickoff 90 yards then something is wrong.
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
11:16 am
Cam will make a fine engineer.
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
11:17 am
@Bama nation
cough cough LSU cough couch
MURPHY
November 9th, 2010
11:17 am
TDWEAGLE,
Would be interesting to see Oregon and AU for the title.My money would be on Cam and the boy’s.Better hope if you are an Oregon fan that the Ducks dont stumble in the first half like they normally do.AU could build a sizable points lead that the Ducks might not be able to overcome.
BAMA dude
November 9th, 2010
11:17 am
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
11:16 am
Cam will make a fine engineer
Yep, I predict he will be a visionary in the license plate manufacturing industry.
MURPHY
November 9th, 2010
11:20 am
Atl Gator,
Point taken. Never doubted your reasoning just the word CLEAN.
MURPHY
November 9th, 2010
11:21 am
BAMA dude,
11:17 am post
WOW! You have done it now! The Aubies will love that comment. LOL Im still laughing
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
11:22 am
What happens if we win the SECCG and then Cam is pronounced ineligible by the NCAA?
Can we hire a ringer QB for the BCSCG?
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
11:23 am
I was thinkin’ maybe we could get that Mazoli guy offa ol’ Houston. He’s a pretty good ol’ boy, that Houston Nutt.
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
11:23 am
Trisha—-
It is, after all, a fan blog, so a certain amount of trash talk about “degrees flying through car windows” is probably unavoidable. LOL
That having been said, and for what it’s worth coming from a three-time Gator alumnus, I think most of us recognize there’s a reason why Auburn is the second most popular state school among Georgia high school students. It’s a pretty damn good school, and it is usually the fourth-rated SEC university after Vanderbilt, Florida and Georgia. And notwithstanding the annual back-and-forth of the U.S. News and World Report university rankings, most years Auburn comes out marginally ahead of Alabama’s flagship university campus. So, lighten up, Francis. It’s a fine school, especially if you received an engineering, accounting or veterinary degree.
GTBob
November 9th, 2010
11:26 am
PETER NORTH, I think the love for Boise over TCU comes from Boise St doing this for a while, and from the fact that an undefeated Boise team beat an undefeated TCU team in a BCS game last year. Although, I would say that both are very deserving.
Casey
November 9th, 2010
11:26 am
As long as Boise and TCU are matched up against someone besides each other, I will be happy. I at least want to see one of them take on a SEC team. Let’s see how good they really are.
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
11:26 am
We got a purty good Sociology department too. That’s what the boys on the team tell me.
WashingtonDCduck
November 9th, 2010
11:27 am
Allow me to throw some numbers at you all. I have complete respect for Auburn, and what they’ve accomplished (TCU, BSU inlucded). This is not a knock at anyone, please understand. Many watch ESPN’s Saturday Game Day Final wrap-up, and see Oregon’s flashy offense, with their crazy uniforms, and see not much substance to the sizzle. Well, Oregon plays defense too and it’s not all window dressing. They have some muscle on that defense and play a pretty physical brand of football. Dooley, maybe not the next Nobel Peace Prize winner or next innovative award winner for neuroscience, but he was quoted after last weekend’s game as saying Oregon’s defense was just as physical as any they’ve played to date and don’t buy the stereotype of soft football played out west. Chew on these numbers:
TOTAL DEFENSE
1) TCU, 215.50 ypg
2) Boise State, 231.38 ypg
29) Oregon, 329.00 ypg
52) Auburn, 355.90 ypg
RUSH DEFENSE
1) Kent State, 69.33 ypg
2) Boise State, 71.63 ypg
7) TCU, 93.60 ypg
18) Auburn, 114.60 ypg
34) Oregon, 126.56 ypg
PASS DEFENSE
1) TCU, 121.90 ypg
9) Boise State, 159.75 ypg
39) Oregon, 202.44 ypg
95) Auburn, 241.30 ypg
PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE
1) Miami (Fla.), 92.17 rating
2) TCU, 92.45 rating
6) Oregon, 100.12 rating
13) Boise State, 109.22 rating
69) Auburn, 127.58 rating
THIRD-DOWN DEFENSE
Oregon, 30.14%
1) TCU, 23.81%
3) Boise State, 28.57%
44) Auburn, 37.78%
RED-ZONE DEFENSE
1) Boise State, 53% (8-of-15)
3) Oregon, 64% (18-of-28)
17) TCU, 73% (8-of-11)
90) Auburn, 87% (26-of-30)
SACKS
1) Florida State, 4.22 pg
2) Boise State, 3.88 pg
5) California, 3.11 pg
11) Oregon, 2.89 pg
TURNOVER MARGIN (TAKEAWAYS-GIVEAWAYS)
1) Ohio State, plus-1.44 per game (24-11)
5) Oregon, plus-1.22 per game (28-17)
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
11:28 am
MURPHY—-
For the record, let’s define “clean program”: one in which the coaches do not intentionally violate the university’s code of conduct or the NCAA’s rules, and in which the university and the athletic department do not tolerate coaches or athletes who do.
In this day and age, it’s all I can ask.
Rubber Ducky
November 9th, 2010
11:31 am
The West Coast preference for offense over defense in football is not a stereotype without foundation.
The stats only reflect the games played. I’m not impressed by Oregon’s defense — even if they did beat the Powerhouse Vols this season.
Rubber Ducky
November 9th, 2010
11:33 am
@Atlanta Gator
Cam Newton is not playing for Florida and Florida is not in the running for the BCS title.
Looks like you got what you asked for.
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
11:34 am
BAMA dude @11:17
Stop it. You’re making it very hard not to laugh.
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
11:36 am
Rubber Ducky—-
Fair enough. I know it may be blasphemy to many on these blogs, but there really are more important things in life than BCS titles.
Besides, I suspect the Gators will be back in strong contention next year.
= )
What? How did this happen? Who's responsible for this mess?
November 9th, 2010
11:38 am
With one of the biggest athletic budgets and one of the highest paid coaches, why isn’t UGA in this mix?
Well… just how long is it going to take for UGA fans to realize that UGA is simply no longer relevant in the SEC? In the national picture, UGA isn’t even a blip on the radar, and hasn’t been since the preseason #1 ranking two years ago.
Sit back and be grateful for the seven or eight wins you’ll get every year. Coaching genius Mark Richt may take you to 8-4 or even 9-3 occasionally, but Florida will still win the SEC, meaning no BCS bowls and no top 10 final ranking. Most years, UGA will be very lucky to finish in the top 25, and only after a big bowl win over a nobody opponent.
It’s a different world now, and Dawg fans need to adjust their expectations downward to reflect reality.
Unfortunately nothing is going to change until UGA changes its mediocre coaching. That’s where the difference is, and that’s why everyone outside Dawgtard Nation just laughs at Dawg fans getting so excited year after year about what a great recruiting class UGA gets. It doesn’t matter how many blue chip high school players go to UGA, they simply don’t get the coaching they would get at Florida or Alabama, to name two schools whose programs are far ahead of UGA. And that’s not going to change as long as Mark Richt is in Athens.
Get your heads out of the sand and face reality. And mediocrity and irrelevance.
Big Dawg
November 9th, 2010
11:40 am
Well…
At least we didn’t recruit Cam Newton.
Augie Dawgie
November 9th, 2010
11:41 am
Auburn 45, Georgia 24 is my guess. It’s going to be a long game for the Dawgs.
gomdawg
November 9th, 2010
11:41 am
NEWTON WILL BE BACK HIS $200,000 CONTRACT FOR 2 YEARS
gomdawg
November 9th, 2010
11:43 am
GEORGIA WINS 10-7 HA HA HA A DEF. GAME
Big Dawg
November 9th, 2010
11:45 am
Well sure, the contract was for 2 years, but do you really trust this guy to stand by his agreement?
Rented mules don’t hang around after the O-line graduates.
The facts, ma'am, just the facts
November 9th, 2010
11:45 am
“At least we didn’t recruit Cam Newton.”
That remains to be seen. We’ll see what the NCAA investigation turns up. No telling what kind of skeleton’s are in UGA’s closet.
Geaux Tigers!
November 9th, 2010
11:50 am
What happens when Auburn loses the SEC championship game to UF? Does a 1 loss LSU team sneak into the BCS Championship game? We’ve heard all year that a 1 loss SEC team could not be denied. Plus, LSU will have the toughest S.O.S out of any of the teams in the BCS top 10.
WashingtonDCduck
November 9th, 2010
11:56 am
**Rubbery Ducky**
I don’t hear anyone from the Oregon camp hollering that Tennessee is a 2010 juggernaut and should be included in the overall body of work. Oregon/Tennessee home & away series was inked over 5 years ago, and at that time the Vols were a force to be reckoned with.
Mobile Dawg
November 9th, 2010
12:07 pm
11:38 poster, what’s your point? Are you just stirring the pot? I haven’t heard an intelligent Georgia fan that would disagree with your overall intent. Get lost.
CalGatorBrotha
November 9th, 2010
12:09 pm
dont we still have a month of football still left….who knows where a team is going bowling at this point….lets look at thing in another 4 weeks
Terp
November 9th, 2010
12:11 pm
Dye Pat,
Can you really call a team a “Cinderella” when the same sports media has been shoving them down our throats for the past decade?
Steve
November 9th, 2010
12:18 pm
I’m tired of the media playing stupid and trying to pretend that somehow Boise and Oregon are brand new, fresh-faced programs that have taken CFB by storm. ESPN has been giving Boise reachrounds since the late 90’s. They painfully try to forget how UGA destroyed them in Athens several years ago. And yes, Boise was a ranked team at the time. Not to mention their 3 other games against SEC teams all ended in defeats.
And give me a break about Oregon. They’ve been claiming that Oregon is the next to dethrone USC since before Joey f’n Harrington. Yet they always end up being impostors.
These two programs are anything but new
Mobile Dawg
November 9th, 2010
12:23 pm
Oregon is legit as an offensive threat. Would like to see them against last years Bama defense.
Guess we will see about Boise if Tony’s predictions rise to fruition.
JASon
November 9th, 2010
12:24 pm
Hey, mr. college football, where is alabama on your bcs list? They lost 8 seniors on defense last year yet you still predicted them #1. Wow, were you wrong. mr. college football.
WashingtonDCduck
November 9th, 2010
12:24 pm
Oregon’s LaMichael James and Auburn’s Cam Newton will be on cover of Sports Illustrated this week, talking about potential matchup of Oregon vs. Auburn in the title game. TCU’s Dalton will be on cover as well, with an article about 16 team playoff and the strengths/weaknesses of the argument.
Gator4life
November 9th, 2010
12:29 pm
Atlanta Gator, Have you seen our sched for next year?
blazer
November 9th, 2010
12:38 pm
TCU-Boise State-all the experts would go crazyi-they will never let that happern!!
joe
November 9th, 2010
12:44 pm
Phil Steele said UGA has the 3rd best offense in the country, so they’ll play in the SEC Champ game and in the BCS. Oh, wait, nevermind…
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
12:50 pm
Auburn will win the People’s Choice award again, no matter what happens.
You can’t take that away from us!