Our first BCS Projections. What are yours?
We are less than a month from Selection Sunday so it is not too early to make our BCS Projections. These projections are based on the major players involved winning out . W e know that won’t happen but if it does, I want to give you an idea of how the process is going to work.
BCS championship: Oregon vs. Auburn. Oregon still has to win on the road at California and on the road at Oregon State. Auburn has two tough SEC games with Georgia at home and Alabama on the road. If this is the matchup, don’t think we’ll have a lot of complaints except from the precincts in Fort Worth and Boise who may go undefeated and not get a shot. This would be a good year for a four-team playoff, don’t you think?
Here are the rest of the projected BCS Bowls:
Rose: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Sugar: LSU vs. Boise State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State
Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Here is how we get there.
The two bowls who lose their designated champions to the BCS title game get the first two picks after the BCS title game is set:
Rose (which lost No. 1 Oregon). The rules of the new BCS contract say that the Rose has to take No. 3 TCU or No. 4 Boise State as a replacement pick if one of those teams qualifies for an at-large berth. BCS expert Jerry Palm tells me that it is still possible for Boise to jump back to No. 3 and in that case the Rose might take the Broncos as its replacement pick.
Sugar (which lost No. 2 Auburn, the SEC champ) Takes 11-1 LSU. That’s a no brainer.
Big 12 champ (Nebraska) is placed in the Fiesta.
ACC champ (Virginia Tech) is placed in the Orange
Big Ten champ (Wisconsin) is placed in the Rose
So the BCS championship is full and the Rose Bowl is full.
Now the selection order, which is determined before the season, is Sugar, Orange, Fiesta. Remember that to be considered for a BCS at-large bid you have to finish in the final top 12 and win at least nine games.
Sugar: They could take a 11-1 Ohio State whose only loss is to Wisconsin. But at the end of the day the Sugar will take the highest ranked team they can get. That will be undefeated Boise State which gets a chance to test itself against one of the best defenses in the country. Or it could be undefeated TCU if Boise goes to the Rose.
Orange: You could take 11-1 Stanford, 11-1 Michigan State or 11-1 Ohio State. It’s an easy choice. You take the Buckeyes and all those TV sets that will turn on to watch them.
Fiesta is left with Pittsburgh, the Big East champ.
Understand that if Oregon or Auburn lose down the strech it will open up the argument of whether or TCU and Boise should both play in the big game or if a one-loss team from one of the power conferences should get one of those spots.
So what do you think of the BCS matchups? Do any of those games interest you? Is there a team getting left out that is more deserving than the 10 on this list? The floor is yours.
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269 comments Add your comment
ATL is TigerTown
November 9th, 2010
9:20 am
http://www.auburntron.com/2010/11/05/sex-tape-sought-for-espn-reporters-forde-low-and-schlabach/
sowhat
November 9th, 2010
9:20 am
if it’s Urban Meyer saying these things,Who cares.The things out today about Cam are facts from the Univ of FL.Finally we know why he left.
Thump that Chest, worm !
November 9th, 2010
9:22 am
worm,
30+ points 5 games in a row against 4 SEC teams that are a combined 6-18 in SEC play ! And the other was Idaho St. !! Not real impressive.
teck fan
November 9th, 2010
9:24 am
I have every confidence teck plays in the bcs title game
REDHOG
November 9th, 2010
9:24 am
I’m a razorback fan, but i sure hope the Bulldogs beat Auburn on Sat…. Au fans have got to be the worst in the country…they should actually win something first before open their big yaps like they do. By the way…if Auburn wins out (i would hate that, but it helps us) and Arkansas wins out (including beating LSU), Razorbacks could go to sugar bowl.
Gordon
November 9th, 2010
9:27 am
Oregon vs. TCU.
Auburn loses to Alabama and plays in the Sugar Bowl.
T.O
November 9th, 2010
9:29 am
On the Cam Newton deal, he obviously has a questionable charachter(stealing and cheating at FLA) and it would be no surprise to me if he was out soliciting cash during his recruiting visits. Doesn’t seem like the brightest kid.
Y U TALK about GA
November 9th, 2010
9:30 am
UGA will shock the world and upset AU!!
SHOCK THE WORLD DAWGS!
SIC’EM!
SCAM NEWTON
November 9th, 2010
9:32 am
It really is a joke to have your best player be arrested for stealing, caught cheating and then shopped for $$$. I’m sure its a big mistake and its a plot. Basically auburn would do anything to win and this is just the tip of the iceberg…
Tomsjeep88
November 9th, 2010
9:34 am
Oregon vs TCU.
Recruiting payoffs? Academic cheating? Traffic violations? These Alabama moles are sure having a difficult time with AU’s resurgence. What will they come up with about Saban when he denies talking to Jerry Jones?
Bravesfan79
November 9th, 2010
9:36 am
College football is so full if “IF’s”, give me a REAL sport any day like the NFL, where there the Champion is based on Results, not a bunch of people sitting around wondering “IF…”
TCU should sue the BCS if they are left out of the title game. So should Boise State. How many years in a row do you have to go Undefeated to have a chance??
dog fan
November 9th, 2010
9:40 am
hey, phil steele said we were 3rd in the country….preseason. we’ve scored 30+ points per game the past 5 weeks – we’re the hottest team in college football. no one wants to play us. we should be #1 if not for the ESPN conspiracy. oh well, we’ll live vicariously through all the teams that have passed us in the SEC. go dogs!
Dostoyevskiy
November 9th, 2010
9:43 am
Ask SCar if UConn is not deserving of an automatic bowl bid. And by the way, didn’t SCar recently beat Bama? Such arguments against the ACC and BE are child-like.
Mobile Dawg
November 9th, 2010
9:47 am
Cam Newton wasn’t a choir boy at UF, that’s obvious. Question is did he learn anything by having to suck up his ego and spend a year at juco. My feeling is it isn’t his character in question at this point, it’s his fathers.
Quite a few of the comments bashing him are out of immature, mean spirited, and just plain ignorant people.
I agree with Ben’s earlier post, as Tony has it laid out the title game and Sugar Bowl would be the only two of real interest to me. The interesting match ups will probably be in the mid tier line up.
droopydawg
November 9th, 2010
9:49 am
Nebraska the Big-12 champ? Seriously?
Dr. J
November 9th, 2010
9:49 am
Southern Cal has been on probation the most times, but hasn’t Auburn spent more time on probation than anyone else?
droopydawg
November 9th, 2010
9:50 am
I have this feeling that AUB is going to win the BCS championship this year and then they are going to be stripped of it in 2012.
teck fan
November 9th, 2010
9:55 am
Bravesfan79: trying going to college first, then you’ll get it.
teck fan
November 9th, 2010
9:55 am
I have this feeling that PJ is packing his bags right this very minute
Gunk
November 9th, 2010
9:56 am
Tony,
Do you really think that the Sugar Bowl would choose Boise State over Ohio State? The bowls are about making money and the Ohio State fan base is much larger and would be excited about a trip to NO to play LSU.
Bryan
November 9th, 2010
9:57 am
Auburn will lose to Georgia and Alabama; LSU will lose to Arkansas; and Alabama will win out in the regular season. This will result in a four-way tie of two-loss teams in the SEC West, and Alabama will play in Atlanta. Florida will beat South Carolina this weekend and will represent the SEC East in Atlanta. In an upset, Florida will win the SEC Championship.
This will put Oregon and TCU (both undefeated) in the BCS Championship game.
The Rose Bowl will take Wisconsin (Big 10 champ) and Boise State (undefeated).
The Sugar Bowl will be Florida (SEC champ) and Stanford (highest ranked one-loss team).
The Orange Bowl will take Virginia Tech (ACC champ) and Ohio State (one-loss ratings champ).
The Fiesta Bowl will be Nebraska (Big 12 champ) and Pittsburgh (Big East champ).
T3
November 9th, 2010
9:58 am
The BCS was “supposed” to fix ALL of the problems
created by the “old system.”
The BCS has only proven that it is as dysfunctional
and fraudulent as the old system.
The time for a legit playoff sytem is long overdue.
droopydawg
November 9th, 2010
10:02 am
Bravesfan79: Um, sue the BCS, really? What exactly would be the basis of a lawsuit?
Also, what BSU or TCU did in years past has no bearing on whether they should be involved in the title game. It is not a lifetime achievement award.
That said, I think it is unfair to lump BSU and TCU together. TCU plays a much tougher schedule year-in-year-out. The MWC has much better teams than the WAC. If BSU wants to play for the championship, they MUST follow the FSU model. FSU played a weak conference schedule in the ’80s and ’90s, but they played UF and UM (when that meant something) EVERY YEAR. They would also play a Notre Dame, Penn State, or Alabama every year in addition to that. Picking on a mid-level PAC-10 team, and playing one meaningful game (VT) over the course of a year is not sufficient. To me, TCU has a great argument to make the game if OU or AUB stumble, but BSU should be given the same consideration as Appalachian State.
PMC
November 9th, 2010
10:03 am
Can we eliminate the Big Least this year?
Nebraska v Pittsburgh???? Are you kidding me? That’s unwatchable.
Pittsburgh doesn’t deserve the stay puft marshmallow bowl….they get 15 million dollars?
Disgusting.
PMC
November 9th, 2010
10:05 am
I don’t care about the national champion Tony. I care about seeing the best college football matchups I can see.
The Bowl system the past 5 years has given us a lot of Nebraska v Pittsburgs.
Georgia v Hawaii when Georgia v USC would have been better etc etc etc.
What we may need is a committee that picks not a champion but that gives us compelling fantastic matchups of teams.
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
10:05 am
Couple of points regarding Cam Newton’s ongoing saga in the media—-
1. I have no inside information. Zero. Nada. Empty set. Anything I say about Newton is conjecture in the context of what I do know about the way the University of Florida operates.
2. All student academic and disciplinary records are confidential in accordance with federal law. The potential consequences for leaking those records are severe: civil damages, fines, criminal prosecution and loss of federal funding. To a major research university like Florida, that’s more than a threat. The likelihood that anyone who is a university employee leaked these stories is slim and none. No one gets between the University of Florida and research money; anyone who does is yesterday’s news, and that would include a two-time national championship coach.
2. If Newton’s professor had pursued honor code charges against him for plagiarism, he would have been drop-kicked. Submitting someone else’s complete work as your own is not a minor offense; this is not an undergraduate gray-area case of failing to include quote marks or a footnote. The only way a student survives this is that the case was never presented, which, I believe, is within the professor’s discretion to handle internally. If, however, another student had reported it, it would be out of the professor’s hands.
3. Permitting a student to escape the consequences of cheating twice in the same semester-long class would be almost unbelievable and would likely have adverse career consequences for the professor (like the denial of tenure). Florida professors do not answer to the athletic department; they answer to their department chairman and the dean of their college.
4. Given Florida’s history of NCAA violations under Charley Pell and Norm Sloan during the 1980s, UAA (Florida’s athletic association) and the university have a very strict and very pro-active compliance program to monitor the conduct of both coaches and athletes. Grades and class attendance are tracked by the UAA academic counselors. Skipping class gets you benched; cheating gets you drop-kicked.
4. The decision was made a long time ago that the university would never be embarrassed again in the same way that it was in 1984-1985. Coaches or athletes who screw up and intentionally break the university’s code of conduct or the NCAA’s rules will be sacrificed for the greater good of the university—-without remorse.
5. Jeremy Foley runs a tight ship and a clean program. Keeping Newton after one or more major academic violations would not have been Urban Meyer’s decision; it would have been Foley’s. Picture a Roman emperor giving the thumb’s down in the Coliseum, and you have the right idea.
6. If two or more cheating incidents came to the attention of the athletic department at the same time, the likelihood of any athlete getting a “second chance” is damn close to zero, especially if the athlete had other previous character issues (i.e. theft or receiving stolen goods).
Again, I don’t know anything about Cameron Newrton’s history at Florida which I haven’t learned from the newspapers. I hope for his sake that these additional academic cheating allegations are not true. If they are, his January 2009 transfer to Blinn Junior College would certainly appear in a very different light than that previously portrayed in the media.
PMC
November 9th, 2010
10:06 am
The bowl tie ins… should be obliterated. It’s NONSENSE!!!
T3
November 9th, 2010
10:07 am
The Big10 #1 will be in Rose Bowl.
The Big10 runner-up will go to the Orange Bowl to face FSU.
(The reamining schedules favor Michigan State as the Big10 #2)
ga gator
November 9th, 2010
10:09 am
Good post ATL Gator. I don’t care if Newton wins the Heisman, NC or both; I am glad he is not a Gator anymore.
droopydawg
November 9th, 2010
10:10 am
Atlanta Gator: great post.
One thing to add: Let’s not forget this is also a guy who stole a laptop out of a room, which could be considered burglary or robbery depending on the circumstances (both felonies with max sentences of 20 yrs in GA). While football players do stupid things like this and get forgiven (Alec Ogletree, though his was a misdemeanor theft by taking which is much less severe, that combined with the cheating should have gotten him thrown to the curb immediately, but this is UF we are talking about. I think there is a bit of “if there’s smoke there’s fire” when you combine that incident, the cheating allegations, and the bribery allegations from MSU.
Who knew Cam Newton was such a villain.
OkefenokeeDawg
November 9th, 2010
10:14 am
Foley shoulda given a “thumbs down” on Rainey – at least for this season.
Kenny Powers
November 9th, 2010
10:19 am
Report: Newton cheated while enrolled at Florida
Who cares.
Report: You’re a loser.
gcs
November 9th, 2010
10:21 am
Toilet Bowl: Notre Dame does not qualify. HAHA!
.
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
10:24 am
The only thing that we know for sure is that Cam isn’t playing at Georgia, Florida or MSU. Maybe he just wasn’t good enough to play at those schools?
K State or bust!
November 9th, 2010
10:24 am
“Here’s the scenerio……If Richt could start with a fresh start at a new school and could hire all the assistants he wanted…”
So Richt is going to Kennesaw State?
MURPHY
November 9th, 2010
10:27 am
ATL Gator,
#5 of your post-Jeremy Foley runs a tight ship and a clean program. Hmmm? How did Rainey slip thriugh the cracks? Just curious?
Rap Sheet Blues (in the key of G)
November 9th, 2010
10:27 am
Pretty sickening reading, but a must for dawgtards who think their own thugs are innocent:
http://www.redandblack.com/2010/10/12/accusations-piling-up-for-running-back-king-tally-of-arrests-increasing/
Michael
November 9th, 2010
10:28 am
Atlanta Gator…..so threatening to kill another student is NOT against the “university code of conduct” ?
Terp
November 9th, 2010
10:32 am
Let’s talk Cam!!!
how2fish
November 9th, 2010
10:33 am
Atlanta Gator that’s a compelling post well done, good points and reasoning. Foley has run a clean program and for that matter so has Urban for the most part and I’m not a Gator fan by any means.
Terp
November 9th, 2010
10:35 am
Rap Sheet Blues –
Might sound silly, but I have never liked the way King looks. A mustache, seriously? This isn’t 1982. And his whole story has rubbed me wrong, going back to when he was a junior in high school. He gives me a bad feeling in my stomach, but there is nothing a fan can do about it. Your link is a month old and just repeats the same “arrest” story we know about his speeding ticket. The disturbing “he said, she said” part of it is just that, “he said, she said.”
I hope you didn’t spend too much time digging that one up.
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
10:35 am
OkefenokeeDawg—-
And there’s where we differ. I don’t pretend to know Newton’s whole story. Frankly, I really don’t want the recruiting and plagiarism stories to be true. The second chance redemption story has a feel good element to which I gravitate rather than the diss-your-Auburn-rivals fire that others are fanning on the internet. What’s bad for Auburn is bad for the SEC, and is ultimately bad for all SEC members. The conference really does not need another high-profile scandal.
As for the Chris Rainey story, everything I have read about the kid before and after the threat-texting incident leads me to believe that he is an otherwise good kid who screwed up. His coaches and teammates are standing with him, which says a lot. (Contrast this with the silence that Carlos Dunlap got when he was charged with DUI the week before last year’s SEC championship game.) Rainey had no prior history of threatening women, abusing women, or any other violent incidents. IMHO, the original felony charges were a clear case of “over charging.” He pled to a misdemeanor, accepted monitored probation and counseling, and was suspended from the team for half of the season. Given the circumstances, those sound like appropriate punishments and remedies to me.
Rainey is a kid who has been a team player who has done what the coaches asked without complaint. Moreover, there may have been more at play in this out-of-character incident: Rainey was suffering from a severe concussion at the time of the incident. Make of that what you will.
UGA Insider
November 9th, 2010
10:37 am
Rumors are swirling with insiders about the UGA program this week. It’s just that Cam is getting all the press which is what CMR likes. The Miami Hurricane’s keep popping up in names being associated with this staff…..from assistants all the way up. Keep your eye on this situation Dawg fans…..If something happens with Randy Shannon, CMR will be their lead candidate and I think he would ultimately take the job. First on the McGarity list I know for sure… Dan Mullen.
Dat Pye
November 9th, 2010
10:41 am
Wouldn’t it be ironic if Richt quits Georgia before Georgia makes up it’s mind to quit Richt?
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
10:45 am
Michael—-
Clearly, threatening another student is against the university’s code of conduct. I might also add that the woman involved in this incident is not a student, not that would be determinative. Student conduct violations at the university are not limited to those that only involve university persons, however, and off-campus criminal violations are fair game for review. My point, however, is that the punishment meted out to Rainey, under the facts and circumstances of his case, are entirely appropriate. (Read my comments above.) You can disagree with it, based on your opinion, but you cannot say that his punishment violates the law or the university’s code of conduct. It is entirely consistent with what any other non-violent, first-time offender could expect from the circuit court and the Student Services dean. Unlike other students, Rainey was also suspended from the team for half of the season. To my rather critical eye, all of this seems entirely appropriate and proportionate to the actual offense committed.
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
10:47 am
I love the new found academic bias portrayed by UGA fans here.. a 4.0 in liberal arts is easy..try it in Mechanical Engineering. Lets see…sociology 202″american idol edition” and the exalted minor in magazines…vs. fluid dynamics and mechanics and Emag
WAR DAMN EAGLE!!!!
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
10:49 am
MURPHY—-
Please see the comment above.
Atlanta Gator
November 9th, 2010
10:50 am
Uh, Trisha, you lost me. Who is majoring in mechanical engineering?
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
10:51 am
and all those posts on page 2 are NOT me..have some guts, little man..stop using my screen name
MURPHY
November 9th, 2010
10:53 am
Atl Gator,
I read your reasoning.I have respect for the Gators,Foley and Urban. I just think you are a little off with the clean program thing.Not to single UF out as I have no room to cast stones being a Dawg fan. All programs have issues and to say all or any are clean is not accurate in my opinion.Maybe it’s just all issue arent reported on by the media.