Our first BCS Projections. What are yours?
We are less than a month from Selection Sunday so it is not too early to make our BCS Projections. These projections are based on the major players involved winning out . W e know that won’t happen but if it does, I want to give you an idea of how the process is going to work.
BCS championship: Oregon vs. Auburn. Oregon still has to win on the road at California and on the road at Oregon State. Auburn has two tough SEC games with Georgia at home and Alabama on the road. If this is the matchup, don’t think we’ll have a lot of complaints except from the precincts in Fort Worth and Boise who may go undefeated and not get a shot. This would be a good year for a four-team playoff, don’t you think?
Here are the rest of the projected BCS Bowls:
Rose: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Sugar: LSU vs. Boise State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State
Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Here is how we get there.
The two bowls who lose their designated champions to the BCS title game get the first two picks after the BCS title game is set:
Rose (which lost No. 1 Oregon). The rules of the new BCS contract say that the Rose has to take No. 3 TCU or No. 4 Boise State as a replacement pick if one of those teams qualifies for an at-large berth. BCS expert Jerry Palm tells me that it is still possible for Boise to jump back to No. 3 and in that case the Rose might take the Broncos as its replacement pick.
Sugar (which lost No. 2 Auburn, the SEC champ) Takes 11-1 LSU. That’s a no brainer.
Big 12 champ (Nebraska) is placed in the Fiesta.
ACC champ (Virginia Tech) is placed in the Orange
Big Ten champ (Wisconsin) is placed in the Rose
So the BCS championship is full and the Rose Bowl is full.
Now the selection order, which is determined before the season, is Sugar, Orange, Fiesta. Remember that to be considered for a BCS at-large bid you have to finish in the final top 12 and win at least nine games.
Sugar: They could take a 11-1 Ohio State whose only loss is to Wisconsin. But at the end of the day the Sugar will take the highest ranked team they can get. That will be undefeated Boise State which gets a chance to test itself against one of the best defenses in the country. Or it could be undefeated TCU if Boise goes to the Rose.
Orange: You could take 11-1 Stanford, 11-1 Michigan State or 11-1 Ohio State. It’s an easy choice. You take the Buckeyes and all those TV sets that will turn on to watch them.
Fiesta is left with Pittsburgh, the Big East champ.
Understand that if Oregon or Auburn lose down the strech it will open up the argument of whether or TCU and Boise should both play in the big game or if a one-loss team from one of the power conferences should get one of those spots.
So what do you think of the BCS matchups? Do any of those games interest you? Is there a team getting left out that is more deserving than the 10 on this list? The floor is yours.
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269 comments Add your comment
Whatever
November 9th, 2010
8:20 am
@Tom, Resident Georgia Fan
That would be a better game than TCU vs. Oregon. That’s for sure.
The Grinch
November 9th, 2010
8:21 am
Steve
November 9th, 2010
8:16 am
…and if a frog had wings…..
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!
Lum
November 9th, 2010
8:21 am
By the way, sounds like the “allegations” against Newton aren’t so “mere” after all. Soudns lke a prince of a fellow. See: http://www.ajc.com/sports/report-newton-cheated-while-733960.html
The Grinch
November 9th, 2010
8:22 am
Miles
November 9th, 2010
8:20 am
Not a big Michael Vick, er, uh, I mean Cam Newton fan here either. Bama could beat AU but I don’t see an SEC East team doing so.
3rdN8
November 9th, 2010
8:22 am
re: Cam Newton
I hate “sports” stories that single out athletes for the microscope……especially when those stories seem a bit thin on facts. Newton is being filleted by a thousand paper cuts. At this juncture, this is not fair to Cam Newton, and it certainly isn’t fair to the Auburn football team.
I can’t imagine how much press this would be getting if the athlete in question was Tim Tebow.
But then, life ain’t fair….sometimes.
Miles
November 9th, 2010
8:24 am
Hey Tom, if LSU plays Boise State, Petersen’s Broncos will crush the Hat…El Sombrero is no bueno…
Whatever
November 9th, 2010
8:25 am
What? Did Tebow receive stolen property and cheat on his classwork?
When will the sordid details finally come out about Tim Tebow?
Chan
November 9th, 2010
8:28 am
Auburn will lose. Oregon might.
tcu will be in the game
Whatever
November 9th, 2010
8:28 am
All of the speculation about Cam being shopped around after his year at Blinn are irrelevant if he is not academically eligible. What is his GPA at Auburn?
Whatever
November 9th, 2010
8:30 am
@Chan
Good point. TCU doesn’t play anyone that might beat them.
ga gator
November 9th, 2010
8:30 am
3rdN8, life is fair. Tebow received the treatment he deserved. If you dont think that th Christian hating media didn’t turn over every stone trying to find something on him you are delusional. Newton has made mistakes and lives in a high risk, high reward world. Tebow was smart enough and moral enough to realize it; Newton wasn’t and isn’t. That being said, everyone deserves second chances, and I hope the money stories about him are not true.
Miles
November 9th, 2010
8:31 am
3rdN8, there’s a reason Tebow didn’t suffer the srutiny that Newton is receiving, i.e., he’s not a piece of crap…
Newton and his “Magic Johnson” smile are as insincere as they come…completely void of integrity…he’s a bad guy…Tebow’s a great guy…
Comparing Tebow to Newton is an indicator of your intelligence and an insult to Tebow…
More CAM @ UF
November 9th, 2010
8:33 am
3rd,
It’s really a stretch to compare Tebow and Cam. To my knowledge, Tebow wasn’t arrested for felony theft by receiving. And he wasn’t investigated by the NCAA for possible contact with an agent. And, to my knowledge, he wasn’t caught cheating twice.
If Tebow had done those things, after appearing to be such an angel, this story would be front page nationalwide, not just front page of the sports section.
jumbeauxtiger
November 9th, 2010
8:33 am
Tony,
Your projection looks good. We’ll see how it pans out and right now I would bet on Auburn and Oregon in the title game. LSU still has to face Ole Miss, who they have had problems with the last 2 years, and Arkansas, who is a very good team.
The Big East is really weak with no team in the BCS Top 25. It’s a shame they get a spot this season.
The Big 10 would not have that projected logjam of 11-1 teams if they had a conference championship game. That finally changes in 2011.
bdawg, you make a good point. There could be alot of good teams in the top non-BCS bowls.
3rdN8
November 9th, 2010
8:34 am
@ Whatever
You missed my point. I was relating how it seemed to me that the press was watching every move Tebow made, and every word he spoke. The press loves to tear-down someone who professes an adherence to ideals, particularly if those ideals involve religion.
Paul in RDU
November 9th, 2010
8:34 am
Tony’s BCS bowl matchups are plausible IF the teams finish up with the records that he has projected. However, that is unlikely. If he had written this a week ago, he would have had Alabama on the list heading to the championship game or the Sugar Bowl. There are some tough games left for many of the teams.
Iowa will beat OSU in a couple of weeks to take them out of a BCS game. MSU is no lock to run the table and who knows whether Auburn will win the SEC. At least with the BCS rules this year TCU or BSU will get to play a team from an AQ conference and not each other.
The Grinch
November 9th, 2010
8:34 am
ga gator
November 9th, 2010
8:30 am
I agree with you in principle, but Newton’s computer and cheating episodes at UF coupled with what could be a “shopped around for the best deal” episode could push him to the “give him a 4th, 5th, or 6th chance” reality show world.
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
8:34 am
Did you see Cam’s awesome performance last Saturday? That only proves his innocence. Nobody could play like that if they were guilty of any wrongdoing.
LEAVE CAM ALONE!!!
TheItalianDawg
November 9th, 2010
8:39 am
Auburn will Choke! count on it! Auburn will either lose to Georgia or Alabama or both, so I still think Auburn will win the SEC but will be excluded from the BCS championship! I do like my Dawgs chances for a huge upset!Go Dawgs!
SEC LEAST
November 9th, 2010
8:39 am
Tony, you are getting ahead of yourself. Has the BCS been notified that the SEC has cancelled their championship?
jumbeauxtiger
November 9th, 2010
8:41 am
Miles:
“Hey Tom, if LSU plays Boise State, Petersen’s Broncos will crush the Hat…El Sombrero is no bueno…”
El Sombrero is no bueno = the Hat is no good.
Yeah right. His record speaks for itself….and his players stay out of trouble.
Bad TV
November 9th, 2010
8:43 am
Disappointing matchups all around – I see NO intriguing matchups. These games should be the opening round matchups in a playoff (which should include 6 other teams + Auburn and Oregon). If these turn out to be the BCS games, perhaps the Bowl Committees will realize they could get much better matchups with their traditional conference allegiances.
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
8:43 am
@3rdN8
Whatever…
Christians are persecuted by the mainstream media? Where do you live, ancient Rome?
MURPHY
November 9th, 2010
8:43 am
TDWEagle,
I see the point you are trying to make. I liked it when they asked Cam last week how he felt? He said I feel 10-0 ! I dont know that his play proves his innocence but you are right he doesnt look to worried about it. Spoke to an AU grad asst yesterday and he told me UGA worries him.He says UGA matches up real well against them.I laughed at him and said: In what area could we possibly match up well with AU. He said UGA is the most atheletic team they have played to this point.That’s interseting considering they played LSU. Oh well we will see on Sat.
ga gator
November 9th, 2010
8:43 am
Miles, Boise would be worn out by LSU’s physicality by the second half. I would like to see Kellen Moore prance around with LSU’s D-line chasing him.
T3
November 9th, 2010
8:43 am
Mark it down:
FSU will win the ACC and play in the Orange Bowl. Not VT.
3rdN8
November 9th, 2010
8:44 am
TheItalianDawg
I haven’t seen Auburn “choke” so far this season. They’ve played some pretty iffy first halfs, but made adjustments (and plays) to pull it out.
If either UGA or Bama beats them, both will have to play lights out for sixty minutes. I haven’t seen Georgia, or Alabama pull that one off this season.
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
8:44 am
The media is just out to get Auburn. That’s all there is to it.
They’ve ALWAYS been out to get Auburn.
Blue
November 9th, 2010
8:45 am
Home game against Georgia is a ‘tough game’???? As Johnny McEnroe would say, “you cannot be serious”!!!
T3
November 9th, 2010
8:46 am
Chik-Fil-A Bowl: VT vs USCe
jumbeauxtiger
November 9th, 2010
8:46 am
T3, the ‘Noles have been up and down all season and the state of NC has beaten them. If they are going to win the ACC they need to turn things around in a hurry.
TampaGator
November 9th, 2010
8:47 am
The winnter of the Florida-South Carolina game….as bad as both teams have looked at times this year….has the ability and talent to win the SEC and play in New Orleans…..no matter what Georgia fans think about the teams or the head coaches.
Go Gators…..ALL BLUE BABY!!!
TrishaDishaWarEagle
November 9th, 2010
8:49 am
Florida doesn’t have a quarterback that can beat Auburn. Too bad for you!
Paul in RDU
November 9th, 2010
8:50 am
The comments about how wrong it is that champions of weak AQ conferences are automatically in the BCS crack me up. What do people think the BCS is? It is a cartel of the 6 top conferences to make sure that they get the majority of the available TV $. For a cartel to be effective it has to be fairly inclusive and all of the members need to think that they are treated equally – otherwise it will break up and that would be bad for all of them..
3rdN8
November 9th, 2010
8:51 am
TampaGator
I was hoping Bama would be in Atlanta. That ain’t gonna happen. But if they were, I’d hate to see them playing the Gators. Florida has (slowly) developed into a solid football team.
Gotta give Meyer and staff a lot of credit. They could have all mailed it in at mid-season, but have turned it around.
Ben
November 9th, 2010
8:52 am
If those projections hold (which they won’t), outside of the Sugar Bowl and the title game…………..BLECH. Thanks for nothing BCS.
just got back from Eugene this weekend
November 9th, 2010
8:52 am
a – i highly recommend the trip – wonderful setting, amazing facilities, good people all around
b – they played a terrible game and scored 50+
c – the speed at which they operate the offense is amazing
d – i don’t think they will fare so well in the national championship game. They might win, but the opposing team will have a month to prepare for the pace… which will lessen their advantage that they enjoy on a week to week basis.
So, whoever is playing Oregon, take em plus the points…
MURPHY
November 9th, 2010
8:52 am
Tampa Gator,
I tend to agree that the East can win the SEC. Itend to favor Carolina-Sorry
Billy Ray Valentine
November 9th, 2010
8:55 am
Why do we have to have conference champions that get an automatic bid to a certain bowl?
Why not say, top 10 teams in the BCS will be the teams selected to play in the 4 BCS bowls and the BSC National Championship.
That would keep teams like Va Tech and Pitt out, since they only way they are getting in is because they won their conference.
Boise Dawg
November 9th, 2010
8:56 am
Ga Gator… biggest misconception about Boise State is that a team like LSU will wear them out. I heard the same crap leading up to the Va Tech game. How Boise State was finally going to be exposed that no way they could match Va Tech for 4 quarters. This BSU team is very physical on both lines of scrimmage.
LSU would be a very good test for Kellen Moore as it would be the toughest D they have faced all year, but probably no tougher than the TCU D they faced in the Fiesta Bowl last year. I like Boise’s chances against LSU because Boise State will be able to keep LSU out of the endzone. I think it would be a low scoring physical game that BSU would win by 10pts.
RHR
November 9th, 2010
8:56 am
I’m a bama alum so naturally, I hate AUBURN, but good lord, leave Cam Newton alone until there is solid proof of wrongdoing. All this speculation and rumors and innuendo is just too much. And of course the Barn faithful are blaming Bama people every time a new story comes out.
3rdN8
November 9th, 2010
8:57 am
Billy Ray Valentine
Please refer to the “Paul RDU” post re: cartels
3rdN8
November 9th, 2010
8:59 am
RHR
Agree re: the “proof”. But I don’t think Auburn people are blaming us on this one. The rumor mill has it that Urban Meyer is Deep Throat.
Top Recruit
November 9th, 2010
9:02 am
For the Dawg alums, supporter, and fans, the best thing about this season is that it is almost over. The next best thing is to find out how the current football staff shakes out at the end.
The spread offense has been the flavor for awhile. Why would CMR hire a defensive staff that employees the 3-4, allegedly the defense for the spread and option, but keeps the same old outdated offense and staff?
Aaron Murray is a spread QB. Find the OC and supporting assistants.
Worm
November 9th, 2010
9:04 am
you clowns should get off Bobo’s butt!…Over 30 points five games in a row (for the first time in school history) since AJ’s return..AJ, Durham and Tavarres King have played only 1 or 2 full games together…our running backs haven’t beem together much either..Did I mention we are playing a FRESHMAN QB?
Gen Neyland
November 9th, 2010
9:07 am
A lot of If’s, Ands or Buts left to go before this thing is Iron-Bowled out. Rivalry Weeks ahead, coast to coast. Glad to see Southern Cal not in the mix but hate it for them that they eliminated themselves…Now, about that bridge on lakefront property that faces the ocean in Kansas I’ve got for sell, real cheap.
MURPHY
November 9th, 2010
9:09 am
worm,
Over 30 points five games in a row? That’s all and fine but how about all that scoring in O.T in jax?
ATL is TigerTown
November 9th, 2010
9:16 am
Miles, it takes a piece of crap to know a piece of crap. I don’t know you.
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!!!
November 9th, 2010
9:18 am
WHAT PALLADIN @ 6:47 A.M. SAID!!!
T.O
November 9th, 2010
9:19 am
NO WAY Auburn plays in the BCS title game. They will lose 1 of the next 3 to either UGA, BAMA or USC/FLA. Heck they could easily lose 2 out of the next 3. No knock on them, just too tough of a schedule. AU Defense isn’t good enough to play in the National Title game. They would give up 60+ to Oregon.