Georgia wins; Mizzou, Michigan State, Utah lose

The Fearless Friday Forecast:

1. Georgia vs. Florida (Jacksonville): Yes, I’ve seen and written the numbers about Urban Meyer and what he has done with more than a week to prepare a team. But as many of you pointed out, those numbers tend to be pretty good when you’ve got better players than the team you’re facing after the open date. Georgia has better players at quarterback (Aaron Murray), wide receiver (A.J. Green), running back (Washaun Ealey) and the offensive line is way better. Great quarterbacks are defined by this game and Murray, the redshirt freshman  from Tampa, puts his stamp on his first Georgia-Florida game by leading the Bulldogs to a victory. Georgia 24, Florida 20.

2. Auburn at Ole Miss: Yes, it’s okay for Auburn to be a little nervous about this road trip because in each of the past three weeks No. 1 has gotten beat away from home. This won’t be a dominating performance by Auburn because the last two weeks against Arkansas and LSU have been pretty draining. In fact, I think it will be close because Houston Nutt, the Ole Miss coach, has a way of winning these kinds of games. I just don’t think the Rebels defense is playing well enough to slow down this Auburn offense. Auburn 31, Ole Miss 24.

3. Tennessee at South Carolina: Freshman running back Marcus Lattimore is returning to the lineup after sitting out the past six quarters with an injury. That is all you need to know because when Lattimore plays South Carolina is a pretty good team. South Carolina 35, Tennessee 10.

4. Kentucky at Mississippi State: We haven’t even gotten to Halloween but already Mississippi State is bowl eligible (6-2). The Bulldogs have figured out exactly who they are. They run the football with quarterback Chris Relf and running back Vick Ballard. They are so much better on defense with new coordinator Manny Diaz running the show. Kentucky just can’t stop anybody on defense. Mississippi State 31, Kentucky 20.

5. Miami at Virginia:  Okay, Hurricanes. It’s time to show us something. You got taken to the woodshed by Florida State on Oct. 9 at Miami. You took care of business last week at home against North Carolina. You are still very much in the ACC Coastal race as you  go to Georgia Tech on Nov. 13 and host Virginia Tech on Nov. 20. Saturday’s game against the Cavaliers is the kind where you usually slop it around on the road. Step up, U. Show us that you’re for real. Miami 35, Virginia 7.

6. Michgian State at Iowa: The Spartans, ranked No. 5 in the BCS, have visions of getting into the national championship mix at best and a strip to the Rose Bowl at worst. But Iowa is in a must-win situation after falling to Wisconsin last week. Sparty hasn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1989. Michigan State’s run comes to an end. Iowa 24, Michigan State 21.

7. Missouri at Nebraska: Missouri (7-0) knocked off No. 1 Oklahoma last week and is off to its best start in 50 years. But Nebraska has to win at home if the Cornhuskers want to get to the Big 12 championship game. Another undefeated team goes down. Nebraska 21, Missouri 17.

8. Utah at Air Force: Everybody in the country is talking about next week’s game when the No. 8 Utes (7-0) host No. 4 TCU (8-0). It says here that Utah is going to get caught looking ahead. Air Force, despite a 38-7 loss to TCU last week, still leads the nation in rushing (326.5 ypg). Air Force 24, Utah 23.

9. Oregon at Southern California: The Ducks looked absolutely unstoppable last week when they simply destroyed UCLA. This is USC’s bowl game because the Trojans are on probation. But this is not a vintage Southern California defense as it is No. 87 nationally, giving up over 400 yards a game. Monte Kiffin is one of the best defensive coordinators of this generation.  But he doesn’t have an answer for Oregon. Oregon 35, USC 20.

10.  Clemson at Boston College: What a difference a week makes. Last Saturday Clemson running back Andre Ellington shredded the Georgia Tech defense for two long touchdowns runs, part of 236 total rushing yards against the Yellow Jackets. On Saturday the Tigers face a Boston College defense that is giving up only 83 yards rushing per game and 2.6 per carry. The Eagles are ranked fourth nationally. Thanks to N.C. State’s win over Florida State last night, Clemson is back in the chase for the ACC Atlantic championship. Clemson has to take care of business on the road. Clemson 21, Boston College 17.

Please follow me on Twitter:

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Barnhart and Durham: We finish up the month of October with a jammed pack show. We have the Legendary Larry Munson. We have Brady Ackerman of the Florida radio network to give us an update on the Gators. We have Jerry Allen, the voice of the Oregon Ducks, who have a huge game with USC. We have John Morris, the voice of the No. 25 ranked Baylor Bears. We will have trivia with David Hubbard and will get another visit from the Bowl Guru. Please join us at 10 a.m. www.790thezone.com.

350 comments Add your comment

GTBob

October 29th, 2010
9:48 am

So Tony thinks all the favored SEC teams will win and the undefeated teams outside of Oregon will lose. Is this analysis or wishful thinking? That is also a pretty weak write up for the Missouri and Mich St games. Writing three lines and basically saying one team needs to win so they will win? We get it Tony, you are mostly an SEC fan and probably don’t even watch most other teams in nation but at least be honest about it. Just change your name to Mr SEC. No one in the south likes to acknowledge football exists elsewhere anyways.

Chris Rainey

October 29th, 2010
9:49 am

“Time to fumble”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

3rdN8

October 29th, 2010
9:51 am

Bama hired the wrong guy.

I’ve watched a couple of the TCU games this year. That is a well coached football team. Gary Patterson has done an amazing job in Fort Worth. Unfortunately, Bama hired his boss in 2001.

Then came the years of darkness.

SadDawg

October 29th, 2010
9:52 am

3rdN8,

That is so true. The coaches and their staffs are what set the SEC apart from the rest of the country. It’s gonna be hard for any program, even Bama, to win the SEC year after year, because of this elite coaching. In just 3 or 4 years, our guy has gone from being considered as one of the best in the SEC, to being on a hot (or warm, at least) seat.

ARK, UK, AU, Bama, MSU, and (maybe) UT all have great new coaches with even better assistants. Then you have three others who have won NCs: Saban, Myer, and Miles.

Richt needs to become a CEO-type head coach, and get a NFL whiz kid to come and develope his offense in order to compete for SEC titles again.

Max

October 29th, 2010
9:55 am

@ GTBob,

There is football played outside of the south? Where?

Max

October 29th, 2010
9:58 am

@ SadDawg,

I’ve always been a little puzzled why we run a Pro-Style offense with an OC that only has college experience. I’m no rocket scientist, but something about that combo just doesn’t compute……

SadDawg

October 29th, 2010
10:00 am

These pesky nerds make me want to go to their blogs and start posting silly and insulting things, and using lots of !!!!!!!!!!!!!, and hahahahahahas, and . . . . . . . .well, not really.

I’m an adult.

3rdN8

October 29th, 2010
10:02 am

SadDawg

funny that you mention Richt becoming a CEO type (and I’m a big Mark Richt fan BTW). Two years ago, he visited several Fortune 500 companies in the Georgia area. His purpose was to determine which management styles worked best, and to apply those to his approach as a Head Coach. Still think that is a good idea. I also think Richt will survive thsi s@#t storm, and get UGA back on track.

Urban's Ticker

October 29th, 2010
10:10 am

Let’s play role reversal for a sec…
What would Florida’s record in the last 3 games be if it played
Tenn., Vandy and Kentucky? Already Won 2 of those
What would UGA record be if it played Alabama, LSU, and Miss. St. in the last 3 games? Already lost 1 of those

Gators by 17

edumacated

October 29th, 2010
10:13 am

Am I the only one who doubts Tony Barnhart ever reads the comments section? Does he ever throw in a comment like some of the other AJC guys?

Anyway, he could stand to read the analysis given by some of his readers, because his picks have really stunk up the place this year. I think he is still in last place on “Talkin Football”, and that’s saying alot.

SadDawg

October 29th, 2010
10:14 am

Max, we’ve lost 9 games in a season and a half mostly because of our predictable offense and playcalling. Kiffen said, “Georgia is the easiest team on our (UT) schedule to prepare for …..”

In our recent games vs UT and Vandy, Bobo put Murray in a version of the spread a lot more and he and the offense thrived. Not so much vs UK, but I understand he wanted to run clock and UK has a terrible run-defense.

Bobo needs to go back to coaching our QBs, teaching footwork and reading defenses. We need a real OC, who can build an offense around our best QB in years. Murray is a weapon, and putting him in a the Power I set, handing off is crazy, especially with all of the 3-and-outs it produces.

5IML

October 29th, 2010
10:21 am

Urban’s ticker,

Although empirical, your argument is very strong. I will take the Gators by 7 tomorrow.

Sean

October 29th, 2010
10:22 am

This is fun: I disagree with almost all of your picks Tony. Air Force? C’mon. Georgia? Because they beat Vandy & Kentucky?

http://thebubblescreen.blogspot.com/2010/10/week-9-picks-usc-knocks-off-oregon-iowa.html

SadDawg

October 29th, 2010
10:25 am

I like Richt a lot too. His biggest fault as a coach is a great character trait as a man, loyalty, to his friends, assistants, and players.

.

5IML

October 29th, 2010
10:26 am

edumacated,

I believe Tony reads the first few posts then gets to work on one of his other gigs. Once, when I made a good point that he overlooked in the article, he emailed be directly in recognition of the point I made.

DawginLex

October 29th, 2010
10:26 am

I’ll play along. I say UGA would have beaten LSU and lost to alabama. LSU had to go to the wire with UT, UGA blew them out.

How’s that?

Also, I’d LOVE to play our schedule again with AJ back and Murray with more experience and our D starting to get it.

It is what it is because AJ messed up, we kept Willie too long and Murray was too hurt to play instead of Joe cox.

Paul Johnson's johnson

October 29th, 2010
10:26 am

Atlanta Gator 3IML

October 29th, 2010
10:27 am

TallaDawg—-Speaking as a member in good standing of The Florida Bar and the State Bar of Georgia, I can say with some authority that it would have been very difficult to get a felony conviction against Rainey, given the factual circumstances of the incident, the absence of any prior history of violence with this woman or any other, as well as the woman’s public statements and testimony that she did not feel physically threatened.

I suggest you take your “Red and Black glasses” off, and quit banging the drum to punish Chris Rainey more than he already has been. The handling of this case by the state’s attorney and the circuit court was entirely proper, and IMHO, also by the University of Florida, the University Athletic Association and Coach Meyer. You’re entitled to your own opinion, but not to your own facts.

aarh

October 29th, 2010
10:27 am

Tony- So, you’re saying that Michigan St. has their eyes on a strip to the Rose Bowl? How vulgar! haha I know it’s just a typo, but kins of funny. Good game breakdown though.

Max

October 29th, 2010
10:30 am

I agree SadDawg. It does pain me to say it because Bobo is one of my all-time favorite UGA QB’s, but that doesn’t always translate into being a good coach/playcaller. I don’t see Richt canning another head coordinator a year after firing his best friend. And if UGA can pull off a miracle finish here these last 4 games, no way does Bobo go anywhere.

3rdN8

October 29th, 2010
10:30 am

every team morphs….into something else……

I always find it intersting when someone predicts a future outcome based on a game(s) that occurred two months ago.

The premise is: If Team X beat Team Y by 17 on Sept 4, and Team Z beat Team Y by 3 on Sept 11, then Team X is a 14 point favorite over Team Z.

But teams morph…into something else. Some players develop as the season progresses, some players get injured, some players become total head cases. Some teams develop chemistry, and some teams experience meltdowns.

The only thing that matters is next Saturday.

SadDawg

October 29th, 2010
10:32 am

DawginLex, I’d just settle for getting those 3 fumbles by Ealey and King on the goal line . . .

Atlanta Gator 3IML

October 29th, 2010
10:32 am

jumbeauxtiger—-Thanks. That’s good Florida-Georgia trivia.

aarh

October 29th, 2010
10:33 am

FL Gator- I believe I’ve read it’s been 31 yrs. in this game since neither team has been ranked.

Chowder

October 29th, 2010
10:33 am

Atlanta Gator,

And let me suggest to you that you remove your blue and orange glasses and see this for what it is. Not only did he threaten this girl, but he also taunted the cops in the same manner. This thug is just that. People can get onto UGA for their misdemeanor traffic violations all they want, but UF has had some pretty violent and dangerous thugs over the years. Looks like Rainey is just the most recent example.

kakes

October 29th, 2010
10:36 am

To the buffoon above that is trying to say UF is going to stomp UGA because of the teams they LOST to, you must not have watched any of UGA games this year. They essentially gifted wrapped 3 of them. The only one that didn’t come down to the waning minutes was the Miss St. loss, and that was only because UGA shot themselves in the foot countless times earlier in the game. UGA could have been undefeated at this point more easily than UF.

aarh

October 29th, 2010
10:38 am

Atlanta Gator- My bad…I put the wrong screen name down, & I also see your question was already answered. It has been a long time though.

Smokewagon

October 29th, 2010
10:39 am

It’s not like Rainey sold a jersey or something horrible like that. He only threatened his girlfriend with death. I hope the people defending Rainey don’t vote so you won’t be called for jury duty.

3rdN8

October 29th, 2010
10:39 am

kakes

sorry……but I’ve had to file those comments under: “IF Robert E. Lee had a squadron of A-10s”

amab011

October 29th, 2010
10:41 am

TB, you should have ran the table of the unbeatens going down and went with the Trojans. This scenario will be sweet for my reigning NC Crimson Tide!

3rdN8

October 29th, 2010
10:41 am

forgot the “End If” statement.

No wonder the thing won’t run.

Atlanta Gator 3IML

October 29th, 2010
10:42 am

TallaDawg—-Your blog handle is new to me, so I have no idea whether or for how long you have followed Tony Barnhart’s Mr. CFB blog or my posts on it. If you have followed it for any length of time, and have read any number of my comments, you will know that I am a rather strong advocate of greater team discipline for NCAA athletes, fairly and uniformly enforced. That having been said, Chris Rainey has already paid an appropriate price for his level of misconduct, and that suspension, misdemeanor conviction and half-season suspension were all entirely appropriate under the circumstances. For the circuit court or university to impose greater penalties than they already have, would be to hold Rainey to a different and harder standard than any other University of Florida student or 21-year-old Gainesville resident. He’s entitled to equal treatment under the laws and administrative code of the State of Florida. Enough said.

5IML

October 29th, 2010
10:43 am

Atlanta Gator,

Please summarize the Rainey case using the IRAC model.

Also, I plan to commence legal proceeding against you for trademark infringement of screen name. Your use of “3IML” is confusingly similar to “5IML.” lol

AJC won't accept post from UGA Insider

October 29th, 2010
10:45 am

No gimmicks, no Tebow, no Charlie Strong, no Dan Mullen. Just a bunch of midget running backs and receiver’s. Nobody in the UGA locker room is scared of this bunch. UGA 42-10.

3rdN8

October 29th, 2010
10:45 am

the “ML” thing is confusing to me……I’m still having trouble remembering how many quarts in a gallon.

Will

October 29th, 2010
10:47 am

Urban Meyer is about to feel the wrath of the most spoiled fan base in all of sports. The University of Florida Gators. Just ask Steve Spurrier.

McDawg

October 29th, 2010
10:47 am

Rainey and Demps each will cough it up

Atlanta Gator

October 29th, 2010
10:49 am

5IML—-The “3IML” is an homage to my college football better, so therefore it constitutes a “fair use” under U.S. copyright law, given that I have derived no material benefit from it and my use could not reasonably confuse the public as to your valuable mark and my very humble one. However, in the interest of good will and judicial economy, I will cease and desist.

: )

Atlanta Gator

October 29th, 2010
10:50 am

Oh, yeah. I really hope I’m past the IRAC essay model. LOL

Atlanta Gator

October 29th, 2010
10:52 am

Chowder—-I refer you to the response that I gave some moments ago.

bigdawg

October 29th, 2010
10:55 am

im aware of Meyer’s record against UGA and his stats off a bye but when that ball comes off the tee none of that is going to matter

the fact is this is bar none the WORST team Urban Meyer has EVER put on the field (including his days at Utah)

Rainey scares me a little but a have no doubt after watching the gators’ last three games myself that UF will find a way to implode yet again

UGA 24
UF 10

GO DAWGS!

Atlanta Gator

October 29th, 2010
10:56 am

“sorry……but I’ve had to file those comments under: ‘IF Robert E. Lee had a squadron of A-10s.’”

Damn. You made me spit coffee on my keyboard I was laughing so hard.

. . . or the U.S. Nimitz was mysteriously time-transported back to the Hawaiian Islands on December 6, 1941.

McDawg

October 29th, 2010
10:56 am

although it will still come down to Defense

bigdawg

October 29th, 2010
10:56 am

you cant run the Tim Tebow offense without Tim Tebow and Steve Addazio (spelling??) is apparantly oblivious to that

Atlanta Gator

October 29th, 2010
10:57 am

Dang it. I am the Typo King today: “U.S.S. Nimitz.”

bigdawg

October 29th, 2010
10:57 am

Murray needs 217 passing yards to be the third ranked freshman QB in UGA history

3rdN8

October 29th, 2010
10:59 am

Atlanta Gator

that was a good movie. Particularly the Zero pilot as a POW. I’ve been places where I didn’t have a clue, and could feel his pain.

bigdawg

October 29th, 2010
11:01 am

just watched some highlight vids of the 07 game vs the 08 and 09 games and the biggest difference I noticed was in 07 UGA came out with fire and simply wanted it more than UF (probably the only time in Tebow’s career that the other team wanted it more than him).

The only reason Steve Addazio’s (again not sure on spelling) offense worked last year was Tebow

ugaclassof2004

October 29th, 2010
11:03 am

Tony,

I agree with all of those picks except UGA vs. Florida and Kentucky vs. MSU.

I could see Kentucky knocking off MSU. They seem to do better when they are under the radar.

UGA might have a better offense than Florida, but the Gator defense is pretty talented. Also, I think Florida’s program is in much better shape than UGA’s. They just landed the 1# recruiting class in the nation, and that will kick in eventually. The Gators are coming off a bye week: and while I don’t think that is enough time to fix all of their offensive problems, its certainly enough time to expolit some of the weaknesses in the Dawgs defense, which lacks talent. I can also see Richt and Bobo giving this Gator team too much respect and playing conservative. Never underestimate our idiotic coaching staff in games like this: they have a way of pulling defeat out of victory. I think the Gators are a 7-5 football team at best. Be that as it may, I just don’t see them losing 4 in a row especially coming off a bye week. I like the Gators in this one as much as I hate to say it.

Jason

October 29th, 2010
11:04 am

Utah will not lose this weekend. Try again.