Alabama can jump over Boise, but can it jump over Michigan State, Missouri?

Here are some of the BCS questions I’ve gotten since the new standings came out on Sunday. Included are my best answers after talking to a bunch of people smarter than me:

1. If No.1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon win out, will they play in the BCS title game regardless of what everyone else does?  The answer appears to be yes. Oregon is a solid No. 1 in the human polls and that doesn’t figure to change as long as the Ducks keep winning and winning impressively. Oregon is No. 8 in the computer polls but its numbers should improve with games against USC, Cal, and Oregon State down the stretch. Auburn’s a lock to stay No. 1 in the BCS Standings as long as the Tigers win.  They are already No. 1 in the computers and that won’t change with a date looming against No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 26.

2. We have seven undefeated teams left. What are the odds that we will still have four or more when the season is over? It would say the odds are pretty long. First of all, two of the undefeated teams—TCU and Utah—face each other in Salt Lake on Nov. 6. Every team in the top eight has a meaningful road game or two where they could stumble. Here is the list:

1. AUBURN (8-0): at Ole Miss, Oct. 30; at Alabama, Nov. 26

2. OREGON (7-0): at USC, Oct. 30; at California, Nov. 13; at Oregon State, Dec. 4

3. BOISE STATE (6-0): at Nevada, Nov. 26

4. TCU (8-0):  at Utah, Nov. 6

5. MICHIGAN STATE (8-0): at Iowa, Oct. 30; at Penn State, Nov. 27

6. MISSOURI (7-0): at Nebraska, Oct. 30.; at Texas Tech, Nov. 6; at Iowa State, Nov. 20

7. ALABAMA (6-1): at LSU, Nov. 6.

8. UTAH (7-0): at Air Force, Oct. 30.

 

3. If we end the season with only two undefeated teams—Boise State and TCU—will they play for the BCS championship? I doubt it. It’s not impossible for two non-AQ’s (automatic qualifiers) to play for the national title but I have to believe that a one-loss team from one of the power conferences could slip in there and jump either TCU or Boise, especially if that team has played 13 games (instead of 12) and won its conference championship. For example: No. 7 Alabama has the perfect schedule to move up the rankings if a bunch of teams in front of them lose. The Crimson Tide plays No. 12 LSU, No. 21 Mississippi State, and No. 1 Auburn in the month of November. Should Alabama win all those games and then win the SEC championship to finish 12-1, I would expect Alabama to jump over an undefeated Boise or an undefeated TCU for a spot in the BCS title game.

4. So you’re saying that it’s possible that if No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon lose down the stretch, then either No. 3 Boise State or No. 4 TCU could get left out of the  BCS championship game even if they go undefeated? Won’t that make a lot of people mad and create a whole bunch of criticism for the BCS yet again? Won’t that bring about cries for Congressional investigations and speeches from politicians (in Idaho and Texas) about how awful the BCS is?

You betcha.

Won’t that FINALLY blow up the BCS?

Nope. Got three years left on the contract.

5. Okay, so a 12-1 Alabama can jump over an undefeated Boise or TCU. Could a 12-1 Alabama jump over an undefeated Michigan State or an undefeated Missouri into the BCS championship game?

Okay, now you’re getting greedy. The answer is probably not. According to Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com, a one-loss team from one of the six original BCS conferences has never jumped over an undefeated team from another BCS conference to play in the championship game. The SEC folks may argue that their one-loss team is more deserving, given the fact that their conference has won four straight national championships. But an undefeated Big Ten champion or an undefeated Big 12 champion is going to get an edge over a one-loss SEC champion when it comes down to the final human polls.

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652 comments Add your comment

AJC won't accept post from UGA Insider

October 27th, 2010
1:16 pm

I love how everyone in the media is forgetting about the UGA/AU game. That game is going to be fun- for UGA.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:16 pm

“Bama dude, is this the best the blogs have to offer? Would a password system eliminate significant worthy traffic?”

Don;t know why you’re asking Bama dude, he doesn’t work.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:17 pm

“That game is going to be fun- for UGA.”

Because UGA likes losing?

Stink Risingn

October 27th, 2010
1:17 pm

Careful Common…they THINK we’re the same person. I’m flattered to be compared to THE blogmaster. The next comment they will make is that YOU are talking to YOURSELF. LOL!!!

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:19 pm

everydayshouldbesaturday is a good blog site for general college football talk, Mobile Dawg.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:21 pm

Y’know, typoing your blog handle is a dead giveaway for toggling back and forth between handles. Mine stays populated all the time.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
1:22 pm

Common sense prevails: Will you guys be sticking around after the Ole Miss loss?

Stink Risingn

October 27th, 2010
1:22 pm

Thanks Bama dude! We’ll check out THAT one as well! Maybe we’ll see ya there AND here!

5150 P.O.A.D

October 27th, 2010
1:22 pm

Since Jan. 3rd 2009
Auburn……..16-5
Oregan……..17-3
Bosie……….21-0
TCU…………20-1
Missouri……14-7
Utah………..17-3
Bama………21-1
I know last year shouldn’t matter but look at the records and the competition played. UTAH, Oregan, and BAMA are GREAT. The rest are just good this year. Auburn has been GREAT this year, but Boise St and TCU not so much. Mussouri had a tuff roe to hoe so to speak in the net few weeks. BCS please play Undeaten TCU v Boise St in the MNC and fealize the nation doesn’t care about your fake TITLE. I think you could get better ratings if Navy and Army Played. At Leaste we could see the future leaders of this Great nation play ball.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:24 pm

“Common sense prevails: Will you guys be sticking around after the Ole Miss loss?’

Since you can obviously see the future, how about some stock tips.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:25 pm

5150 P.O.A.D

Last year was Chiziks first year as head coach. He has a much better first year than Saban did in his first year at Bama.

Stink Risingn

October 27th, 2010
1:25 pm

Bama dude…I’m not toggling. My pc hung and I closed the screen. Simply a typo…I know it’s there. Who cares?

You’re not as smart as I THOUGHT you were. You’ve been pretty good at identifying whether a blogger was the same or not but here: FAIL!!!

ClinchPanther

October 27th, 2010
1:26 pm

Alabama does not have a “right” to jump over anyone. I don’t get it why so many folks think that just because you are in the SEC that it gives you this right. Besides they have not played out the schedule yet, and even if they do and teams are ranked ahead of them, what changed from the previous week? Leave it alone, they dont have a right to anything.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:28 pm

Hmmmm, how would one know whether someone was good at identifying the same person blogging under a different handle unless it was in fact that person who was being identified?

Stink Risingn

October 27th, 2010
1:28 pm

So it’s true! Bama dude..you live alone in your mama’s basement and have no reason to leave your handle “un-populated”. Good for you not having to share!

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:29 pm

ClinchPanther

October 27th, 2010
1:26 pm
Alabama does not have a “right” to jump over anyone. I don’t get it why so many folks think that just because you are in the SEC that it gives you this right.

Seems that consensus is that Bama would jump over Boise St. and TCU if they win out but not Mizzou, Oregon, or Mich. St. if any of them stay undefeated. You think this is incorrect?

Alphare

October 27th, 2010
1:30 pm

Stink,

are you sure you are not Cam Newton? If you are, I am sure Auburn will lose 3 games this year.

Stink Risingn

October 27th, 2010
1:31 pm

Because Bama “DUD”…I’ve been reading the blog for several weeks and NOW know the ins and outs of your characters and exactly what you’re gonna say, what you think, who’s opponent friendly, who’s obnoxious, etc. And Einstein, because the FIRST time I posted someone mentioned “how many times am I going to change my name”. Doh!

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:32 pm

Alphare, I don’t think he’s Cam Newton. I do think he and Cam have similar ability to read defenses.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:33 pm

“Seems that consensus is that Bama would jump over Boise St. and TCU if they win out but not Mizzou, Oregon, or Mich. St.”

What consensus??????????

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:34 pm

“Hmmmm, how would one know whether someone was good at identifying the same person blogging under a different handle unless it was in fact that person who was being identified?”

Bama dude, you’ve been accusing everyone who speaks out against Bama, as “trolls” etc… Geez, you’ve only repeated “troll” five times today.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:34 pm

Interesting info for those interested in the BCS topic:

bcsguru.blogspot.com/…/secs-stranglehold-is-far-from-over.html

tom

October 27th, 2010
1:35 pm

What a mess!

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:35 pm

Stink Risingn

October 27th, 2010
1:39 pm

We’re ALL Trolls! We’ve spoken against the Double Wide Nation!

Old School

October 27th, 2010
1:47 pm

There are two posters on page 4 of this blog that should act their age and not their shoe size. Good grief.

MURPHY

October 27th, 2010
1:49 pm

Im shocked that Auburn fans are ready to crown Cam as better than Tebow.Cam has won only 8 games.He is very good and if he keeps this performance up should win the Heisman.But to claim he is better than Tebow is plain dumb.He hasnt shown he can lead like Tebow and he hasnt wont even 1 National Championship. If he can take Auburn to the National crown and win the heisman this year yhen we can compare the two. Untill then please knock off the comparison to Tebow!

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:50 pm

“Im shocked that Auburn fans are ready to crown Cam as better than Tebow.”

Make up stuff much?

MURPHY

October 27th, 2010
1:52 pm

common sense,

make up what-read back about 4 pages-before you started your daily raves every 5 seconds.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:55 pm

They didn’t say he’s better on here Murphy. I just heard that he is faster, has better vision, a stronger arm, and is a better overall passer. Oh, and they say he is a phenomenal leader too. Nobody said he’s better though. 8)

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:56 pm

MURPHY,
Huh?

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:56 pm

“I just heard that he is faster, has better vision”

He is faster and has better vision. Doesn’t make him better, just faster.

robodawg

October 27th, 2010
1:57 pm

Will Boise St. remain at number 3 all season long, no matter how many times the number 1 and 2 slots change?

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:57 pm

BAMA dude

Two questions for you: 1: Who is faster, Tebow or Newton?

2: Who has better vision, Tebow or Newton?

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
1:58 pm

A four loss Auburn team this season won’t be so bad. At the very least, you got to be #1 for 1 week.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
2:02 pm

“A four loss Auburn team this season won’t be so bad. At the very least, you got to be #1 for 1 week.”

You must have us mixed up with UGA.

MURPHY

October 27th, 2010
2:02 pm

My apologies-may have read that post wrong-it was this morning I read it.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
2:04 pm

robodawg

October 27th, 2010
1:57 pm
Will Boise St. remain at number 3 all season long, no matter how many times the number 1 and 2 slots change?

No way to know for sure, but it seems likely. The last computer polls had them ranked 6th due to SOS, which will only hurt them more as they go along. Chances are that a 1-loss SEC and Pac-10 champ would stay ahead of them as well as any undefeated AQ conference champ.

buzz

October 27th, 2010
2:04 pm

Difference is, the Auburn/Clemson game was early in the season, so clearly Auburn wasn’t on track as well as they are now. Boise should have put up 60+ last night and not allowed them to break 20.

Bamers marry their sisters

October 27th, 2010
2:05 pm

All Alabama teams suck

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
2:06 pm

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
1:58 pm
A four loss Auburn team this season won’t be so bad. At the very least, you got to be #1 for 1 week.

I would be very amused if Aubie were to lose out, but I can’t see that happening in any universe. Ole Miss is kinda bad.

MURPHY

October 27th, 2010
2:09 pm

BAMA dude,

It appears right now that Bama is the only team that can beat AU. I would like to think my Dawgs can play with them but Im waiting untill after the UF game to make a bold statemant like that. And even after I still might not say it

ChaneyJM

October 27th, 2010
2:12 pm

Bama has one good team in forty years and you would think they were entitled to the national championship. God save us from the arrogance of the SEC.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
2:16 pm

Murphy, the Dawgs can absolutely play with them. They played with Arky without AJ, right? Arky could have easily won at JHS. Four TDs came from a fumble return TD that wasn’t a fumble, a backup QB throwing a pick deep in his own, a 90 yard KO return, and a blocked punt. Never mind the TD that was really a fumble before he got to the goal line that NO OFFICIAL called a TD on the field until they met (the closest ref even threw his bean bag at the 1). UGA will have to score plenty but they are certainly capable. I do think Aubie wins the game but it should be competitive.

Bama Rules

October 27th, 2010
2:17 pm

Bama will win again this year and all you bum tiger fans can shut up until you guys beat a real team. And to the mutt fans La La, Tenn, Vandy, and Kentucky aren’t good wins beat a real team then talk

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
2:17 pm

Bama has one good team in forty years

Huh?

MURPHY

October 27th, 2010
2:18 pm

Chaney JM

Bama has one good team? I think it would be safe to say they have been dominate in a 2 year period. As far as SEC arrogance-4 years straight-National Champs-Im pretty sure thats confidence not arrogance my friend.

ChaneyJM

October 27th, 2010
2:18 pm

I would argue that Boise wad last years National Champion, and that Utah held that honor the year before.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
2:19 pm

“Bama will win again this year and all you bum tiger fans can shut up until you guys beat a real team.”

We beat up the team that beat your team. We beat LSU and Arkansas.

You were saying……

Bama Rules

October 27th, 2010
2:21 pm

Auburn barely beat South Carolina by a touchdown and LSU wasn’t great anyway