Alabama can jump over Boise, but can it jump over Michigan State, Missouri?

Here are some of the BCS questions I’ve gotten since the new standings came out on Sunday. Included are my best answers after talking to a bunch of people smarter than me:

1. If No.1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon win out, will they play in the BCS title game regardless of what everyone else does?  The answer appears to be yes. Oregon is a solid No. 1 in the human polls and that doesn’t figure to change as long as the Ducks keep winning and winning impressively. Oregon is No. 8 in the computer polls but its numbers should improve with games against USC, Cal, and Oregon State down the stretch. Auburn’s a lock to stay No. 1 in the BCS Standings as long as the Tigers win.  They are already No. 1 in the computers and that won’t change with a date looming against No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 26.

2. We have seven undefeated teams left. What are the odds that we will still have four or more when the season is over? It would say the odds are pretty long. First of all, two of the undefeated teams—TCU and Utah—face each other in Salt Lake on Nov. 6. Every team in the top eight has a meaningful road game or two where they could stumble. Here is the list:

1. AUBURN (8-0): at Ole Miss, Oct. 30; at Alabama, Nov. 26

2. OREGON (7-0): at USC, Oct. 30; at California, Nov. 13; at Oregon State, Dec. 4

3. BOISE STATE (6-0): at Nevada, Nov. 26

4. TCU (8-0):  at Utah, Nov. 6

5. MICHIGAN STATE (8-0): at Iowa, Oct. 30; at Penn State, Nov. 27

6. MISSOURI (7-0): at Nebraska, Oct. 30.; at Texas Tech, Nov. 6; at Iowa State, Nov. 20

7. ALABAMA (6-1): at LSU, Nov. 6.

8. UTAH (7-0): at Air Force, Oct. 30.

 

3. If we end the season with only two undefeated teams—Boise State and TCU—will they play for the BCS championship? I doubt it. It’s not impossible for two non-AQ’s (automatic qualifiers) to play for the national title but I have to believe that a one-loss team from one of the power conferences could slip in there and jump either TCU or Boise, especially if that team has played 13 games (instead of 12) and won its conference championship. For example: No. 7 Alabama has the perfect schedule to move up the rankings if a bunch of teams in front of them lose. The Crimson Tide plays No. 12 LSU, No. 21 Mississippi State, and No. 1 Auburn in the month of November. Should Alabama win all those games and then win the SEC championship to finish 12-1, I would expect Alabama to jump over an undefeated Boise or an undefeated TCU for a spot in the BCS title game.

4. So you’re saying that it’s possible that if No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon lose down the stretch, then either No. 3 Boise State or No. 4 TCU could get left out of the  BCS championship game even if they go undefeated? Won’t that make a lot of people mad and create a whole bunch of criticism for the BCS yet again? Won’t that bring about cries for Congressional investigations and speeches from politicians (in Idaho and Texas) about how awful the BCS is?

You betcha.

Won’t that FINALLY blow up the BCS?

Nope. Got three years left on the contract.

5. Okay, so a 12-1 Alabama can jump over an undefeated Boise or TCU. Could a 12-1 Alabama jump over an undefeated Michigan State or an undefeated Missouri into the BCS championship game?

Okay, now you’re getting greedy. The answer is probably not. According to Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com, a one-loss team from one of the six original BCS conferences has never jumped over an undefeated team from another BCS conference to play in the championship game. The SEC folks may argue that their one-loss team is more deserving, given the fact that their conference has won four straight national championships. But an undefeated Big Ten champion or an undefeated Big 12 champion is going to get an edge over a one-loss SEC champion when it comes down to the final human polls.

Please follow me on Twitter:

www.twitter.com/MrCFB

Barnhart and Durham: Charles Davis of SEC Gridiron Live on Fox Sports South will be among our guests on today’s “Barnhart and Durham”  Join us live at 10 a.m. www.790thezone.com.

652 comments Add your comment

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:26 pm

Our opponents haven’t stopped us yet. First it was supposed to be Arky, then LSU. Suddenly, LSU is NOT so great NOW that we beat them. Funny how some of you change the stats to fit your own delusional and wishful thinking. LSU should beat Bama! No one is talking about Ingram. His numbers “stink”. He’s an non-issue. Yawn. Next.

Fear the Dumb

October 27th, 2010
12:27 pm

No way Auburn can be the next No.1 team to lose come Saturday — even Cam said so. Ole Misfire has nothing going for them but a hotdog quarterback who was kicked out of his Alma Mater for bad behavior. You can’t win in the SEC with that kind of a crap team.

War Cam Eagle!

Alphare

October 27th, 2010
12:28 pm

Alabama people,

can you guys just get along and win another NC for the people of Alabama again? The last time I checked you guys live under the same roof of Alabama, the beautiful. If you browse around in Homewood, you will see BAMA flags fly along with Auburn flags in the same neighborhood. Some families have children go to both schools.

WDE & RTR!

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:28 pm

For THAT matter, NO one is talking about the Tide AT ALL, except Bammers and Dawgs! It’s all about the Tigers and Cam Newton. Jealousy is the best compliment for smugness! ****grin*****

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:30 pm

If TrishaDisha is a doochbag, then Tide Rising is the enimah that sucks it up!

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
12:32 pm

Stink, did you bother to read the title of the article you’re blogging under. I hope you’re just a troll and not a real representative of the Auburn fan base.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:33 pm

LSU will BEAT Bama! Florida will beat Georgia!! USCAR will win SEC East.

Fear the Dumb

October 27th, 2010
12:34 pm

@Stink Rising

That’s right. We OWN bragging rights in Bama. Auburn has the best team in the history of college football. Nobody can touch the War Cam Eagles!

captguitarman

October 27th, 2010
12:38 pm

This commentary is dead on. If Auburn and Oregon win out, they are in. If Auburn wins out but loses the SEC championship game, it could get confusing. Because it’s the SEC, you cannot assume any win in any situation, or that an SEC East team with three losses could not up and beat Auburn in Atlanta. It is the most dangerous league in the nation when the top dogs face under dogs. I think the analysis about Missouri and Michigan State is correct too, so one of them could take Auburn’s spot if they win out and Auburn loses some where, or both of them if they win out and Oregon and Auburn both lose. As for Boise State, TCU, etc. please stop. You are making my head hurt. There is just no comparison. Yes they both look terrific, and they are exciting to watch (except for Boise St. on that awful blue gridiron that some marketing guy on steroids dreamed up). And good for them. But neither Boise nor TCU has any conception of what it is like to play week after week teams that can test you to the limit and beat you — regardless of their won-lost record. They romp through their schedules demanding first class consideration, but it’s just not in the cards for them.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:38 pm

Sure Mobile Dawg..if it’s about Bama, then why do THEY keep bringing up Auburn? Can’t have it both ways. Sorry you don’t LIKE what I have to say but that doesn’t make someone a Troll. As for a REAL fan base, we’ll let the Tuscaloosers debate that one while they scream yeehaw from their double wides, fly their confederate flag and load them thar guns in their trucks and spin wheelies in the dirt! Speaking of Confederate, isn’t that what Georgia had as a flag for a while? Nothing like racism to represent a fan base, huh? I remember when them good ol’ boys tried to get them stars-n-stripes re-instated in Georgia. You’d a thought the whole state WAS the Klan from the outrage. So I wouldn’t point fingers at ANY fan base. Know what I mean, Eugene?

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:41 pm

Thumb, you might want to remove it from your arnus. We’ve beat Bama SEVEN of the last NINE years. History, huh? As for the EARLY yaers, Bryant was a coward. Everyone KNOWS how he got those Nat’l Championships. BEFORE rules, he recruited 12 deep at EVERY position, the best in the nation, just to keep OTHER schools – HIS opponents – from getting them. Nice history there. He was a coward. Wouldn’t play ANYONE on a level field. Had to cheat in a round and bout way. I will say this – Saban is TWICE the coach and man the dead bear carcas EVER was.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:45 pm

Bet those Bama players from the 60’s & 70’s could have a do-over. Most of them sat on the bench, therefore, destroying their future chances of ANY kind of NFL possibilities – no ever got to see them play! The dead carcass had them warming the benches with their backsides!

Tide Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:45 pm

Stink,

I see that the same usual AU goober is posting again under yet another handle. Just try sticking to one handle ma’am. You would look less cowardly.

Tide Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:48 pm

Stink,

Gotta go. When you and Trisha are done shining my bcs trophy drop it by at 3.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:49 pm

Tide..you ain’t so clever. This is NOT your friend who’s been posting the last several days. But I take that as a compliment. We’ve gotten you so distraught you aren’t even able to determine WHO you’re blogging with.

Speaking of…where IS my wing-man? ***grin***. (Even Bama Dude can tell the difference – you may want to brush up on your intellect)

MURPHY

October 27th, 2010
12:50 pm

Sorry but I will take Tebow over Cam anyday. Cam hasnt proved he is the leader that Tebow was.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:50 pm

Oh, did it get too rough for you? I tell ya what…just put it in the corner and you can shine it along with ours in January. Thank YOU maam!

Delbert D.

October 27th, 2010
12:51 pm

@Troy 8:03 a.m. “The DUCKS ONLY quality win thus far was against Stanford.”

I’d say the 60-13 win over UCLA should count for something.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
12:52 pm

I’m still laughing about this one from Fear the Dumb:

“That’s right. We OWN bragging rights in Bama. Auburn has the best team in the history of college football. Nobody can touch the War Cam Eagles”

Except Ole Miss on Saturday and BAMA next month.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:52 pm

hmmm…why no response from the double wide nation in Tuscalooser to defend that dead bear carcas? I guess there’s no defense for the prosecution when facts are facts.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:54 pm

PC Easy…yep. That’s why we beat Bama SEVEN of the last NINE! Nov 26 makes it EIGHT! Thank you maam! Hold the applaud. I’m enjoying the sound of the thunderous exit of the elephants! Mauled, bleeding, limping.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
12:55 pm

Delbert:

I am not too impressed with an Oregon win over UCLA. But – I would say it was much more impressive than Auburn’s win over LSU.

buzz

October 27th, 2010
12:57 pm

So since Boise appeared to be equal to Texas A&M last night they deserve to play for the national title?????

NESBITT 4 LYFE!!!!

October 27th, 2010
12:58 pm

Looks like Sir Joshua is going to bring GT yet another Heisman trophy!!!!

Tide Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:59 pm

Stink,

I don’t think anyone would fear a punk like you who is probably sitting in his momma’s basement. I notice you’re on all day and night on this blog trying to bring down Bama. Getta job or get a life loser. We all like to blog but nobody has the time to blog all day and all night long like a loser like yourself.

And I don’t think anybody on here is going to defend the bear against whatever you say. Why would anyone take their time to defend the bear against a loser like you. His stature and accomplishments speak for him. Seriously? Do you honestly think anyone cares what a punk like you has to say about a great man like the bear. You’re just not worthy ma’am.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
12:59 pm

Delbert:

I am not too impressed with an Oregon win over UCLA. But – I would say it was much more impressive than South Carolina’s win over Bama!

Stink is a fraud

October 27th, 2010
1:00 pm

How many names you posting under today idiot boy? You are pathetic.

Rick

October 27th, 2010
1:01 pm

Tony, I hope you’re right about the 12th game giving the Tide the edge over Boise State and TCU. However, one thing you may be overlooking is that the win in the SEC title game over a 4 or 5 loss SEC East champ will not really help much.

P. Bull Terrier

October 27th, 2010
1:01 pm

A Georgia win at Auburn could really spoil things for both Auburn and Alabama. If Auburn beats Alabama and has it’s sights set on a BCS Championship, a November loss to UGA would obviously knock them out of the picture. If Alabama beats Auburn and needs all of the strength of schedule bonus points they can get, watching Auburn fall to UGA in late November would make an Alabama win over Auburn a lot less impressive and possibly cost the Tide a shot at the BCS Championship.

I would be happy enough about a UGA win over Auburn, but I wouldn’t shed any tears about disappointing the Alabama fans in the process.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
1:02 pm

Obviously you have me confused with someone else. snicker. grin. Mission accomplished. Of course you aren’t going to defend the dead bear carcas. There is no defense. EVERYONE old enough to be out of diapers (sans you) KNOWS how the carcas won! That ain’t winning. That was spinless. LOL!!! So HOW many Nat’l Titles have you won SINCE those cheating days? That’s what I thought. Now you need to go back and take that milk from your wetnurse. You are becoming delirious and need to feed your brain!

Tide Rising

October 27th, 2010
1:02 pm

Stink,

You won 7 of the last 9? And your point? If you want to live in the past then why not live in the complete past in which Bama dominates AU in the head to head alltime win-loss column?

Next you’re going to want to compare numbers of national titles, conference championships, division titles, bowl victories and appearances, alltime number of wins, etc. Do you really want to go there ma’am. I didn’t think so.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
1:03 pm

Stink Rising:

That doesn’t mean Auburn is the best team in college football history. Sorry I am still laughing here. Must still burn you that BAMA is defending national champ?

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
1:04 pm

I repeat. I. AM. NOT. THAT. ONE. But I AM just as effective. Maybe even more so. Woot Woot!!! Can’t shake the monkey off your back here, on the field, OR in the polls! 8-0!!!!

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
1:04 pm

Stink has been posting for a while under numerous names. Stink never has anything to add to a conversation, just always has a derrogatory remark. Every now and then he gets someone new or unsuspecting but his MO always gives him away.

Enjoyed talking with you football fans today, fans of all teams. Looking forward to Saturday, maybe the Dawgs exact a little revenge on the Gators. Have a great day all.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:04 pm

Trolls really are sad. That’s OK, those of the AU variety won’t be around here after Thanksgiving. Of course, there will probably be some idiot Bama trolls then. Maybe they’re all the same people who just switch teams. A password setup would be really cool around here.

Tech Man

October 27th, 2010
1:06 pm

Those cheaters at Alambama won’t make it to Atlanta!

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
1:06 pm

Rising? Past? You guys are the ones who keep bringing up HISTORY. So if you’re gonna bring up history, at least brush up on it. Geesh!! I’m just helping to educate you…the double wide nation has difficulties enough trying to convince everyone they REALLY don’t share dentures!

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
1:06 pm

FRAUD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BEWARE IM A TECHIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!IM AN IDIOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
1:07 pm

buzz, against Clemson, Auburn appeared to be no better then Miami or UNC. Should they play for a national title? Judging teams negatively off of one game that they actually won is beyond stupid.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
1:08 pm

SCHOOLS OUT EARLY. IM PLAYING ON MY MOM’S COMPUTER AGAIN

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
1:08 pm

I’m not a blogging fool like Mark Bradley. Does anyone know of a good quality blog, that requires a sign on, where decent, serious, fans can talk football? If so give me a direction. Sifting through this trash does get old.

Stink Rising

October 27th, 2010
1:08 pm

Mobile. Thanks for the compliment. If you’ve even noticed…our posting styles are VERY different. We’re just two people who see the pathetic Dawgs and Double Wide Nation groveling to make excuses of why WE are at #1! I know..you guys being shell-shocked can cause delusions and hallucinations! You’ve been NAPALMED!!!

DOUBLE WIDE NATION

October 27th, 2010
1:11 pm

We love our Football, our pick-em-up trucks, our guns and our Skoal! And most of all! We salute the CARCAS!!! Long live the Bear! YEEHAWWW .

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
1:11 pm

Tide Rising, the only history that matters is recent history and we are the current champs. This idiot you’re arguing with can’t even count- Aubie won 6 of the last 8, 7 of the last 10. We won 7 in the 90s, they won 7 in the 00s.

Tide Rising

October 27th, 2010
1:13 pm

Stink,

We’ve won 2 national titles since the bear died. How many you won in the same time? Crickets chirping……

Been fun but I really gotta go. Have a good day ma’am

Scooter

October 27th, 2010
1:13 pm

I resemble dem cawments. Jest cuz my truck is taller-n-my trailer don’t make me no yeehaw. At least I got it on eazy pay an kin move it if I’m a wawntin to!! Rite thar in the middle of the huntin pastur!

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:14 pm

BAMA dude

You wrote the book on being a troll. By the way, Alabama lost and you are still here. Why wouldn’t Auburn people be around?

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
1:15 pm

Bama dude, is this the best the blogs have to offer? Would a password system eliminate significant worthy traffic? I don’t understand AJC’s resistance, it would greatly improve the experience and product.

Stink Risingn

October 27th, 2010
1:15 pm

Now there you go bringing up history again. Dude..you can’t debate anyone else bringing it up if YOU are going to harp on it yourself like a love-sick boy who lost his mommy’s mammary.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
1:16 pm

“We’ve won 2 national titles since the bear died. How many you won in the same time?”

If it hadn’t been for USC cheating, we’d have one in 2004. If it hadn’t been for paying the players, we’d have one in 1993.

Not making up excuses, just saying. Congrats on your 1000th national title, Turd Rising.