Alabama can jump over Boise, but can it jump over Michigan State, Missouri?

Here are some of the BCS questions I’ve gotten since the new standings came out on Sunday. Included are my best answers after talking to a bunch of people smarter than me:

1. If No.1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon win out, will they play in the BCS title game regardless of what everyone else does?  The answer appears to be yes. Oregon is a solid No. 1 in the human polls and that doesn’t figure to change as long as the Ducks keep winning and winning impressively. Oregon is No. 8 in the computer polls but its numbers should improve with games against USC, Cal, and Oregon State down the stretch. Auburn’s a lock to stay No. 1 in the BCS Standings as long as the Tigers win.  They are already No. 1 in the computers and that won’t change with a date looming against No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 26.

2. We have seven undefeated teams left. What are the odds that we will still have four or more when the season is over? It would say the odds are pretty long. First of all, two of the undefeated teams—TCU and Utah—face each other in Salt Lake on Nov. 6. Every team in the top eight has a meaningful road game or two where they could stumble. Here is the list:

1. AUBURN (8-0): at Ole Miss, Oct. 30; at Alabama, Nov. 26

2. OREGON (7-0): at USC, Oct. 30; at California, Nov. 13; at Oregon State, Dec. 4

3. BOISE STATE (6-0): at Nevada, Nov. 26

4. TCU (8-0):  at Utah, Nov. 6

5. MICHIGAN STATE (8-0): at Iowa, Oct. 30; at Penn State, Nov. 27

6. MISSOURI (7-0): at Nebraska, Oct. 30.; at Texas Tech, Nov. 6; at Iowa State, Nov. 20

7. ALABAMA (6-1): at LSU, Nov. 6.

8. UTAH (7-0): at Air Force, Oct. 30.

 

3. If we end the season with only two undefeated teams—Boise State and TCU—will they play for the BCS championship? I doubt it. It’s not impossible for two non-AQ’s (automatic qualifiers) to play for the national title but I have to believe that a one-loss team from one of the power conferences could slip in there and jump either TCU or Boise, especially if that team has played 13 games (instead of 12) and won its conference championship. For example: No. 7 Alabama has the perfect schedule to move up the rankings if a bunch of teams in front of them lose. The Crimson Tide plays No. 12 LSU, No. 21 Mississippi State, and No. 1 Auburn in the month of November. Should Alabama win all those games and then win the SEC championship to finish 12-1, I would expect Alabama to jump over an undefeated Boise or an undefeated TCU for a spot in the BCS title game.

4. So you’re saying that it’s possible that if No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon lose down the stretch, then either No. 3 Boise State or No. 4 TCU could get left out of the  BCS championship game even if they go undefeated? Won’t that make a lot of people mad and create a whole bunch of criticism for the BCS yet again? Won’t that bring about cries for Congressional investigations and speeches from politicians (in Idaho and Texas) about how awful the BCS is?

You betcha.

Won’t that FINALLY blow up the BCS?

Nope. Got three years left on the contract.

5. Okay, so a 12-1 Alabama can jump over an undefeated Boise or TCU. Could a 12-1 Alabama jump over an undefeated Michigan State or an undefeated Missouri into the BCS championship game?

Okay, now you’re getting greedy. The answer is probably not. According to Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com, a one-loss team from one of the six original BCS conferences has never jumped over an undefeated team from another BCS conference to play in the championship game. The SEC folks may argue that their one-loss team is more deserving, given the fact that their conference has won four straight national championships. But an undefeated Big Ten champion or an undefeated Big 12 champion is going to get an edge over a one-loss SEC champion when it comes down to the final human polls.

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652 comments Add your comment

Don4654

October 27th, 2010
10:53 am

Bama fan here.I agree Auburn is a good team and am worried about playing them in the iron bowl.Fairley is a great player and so is Newton.Auburn also has good receivers,some capable running backs and a good offensive line.However ,I don’t think they are any better than 4-3 without Newton.He is a difference maker.Also,Auburn has played a pretty good schedule so I think they are for real.I just wish peolple would give all teams credit when it is due.

As for LSU it will be a tough game probably 7 points either way.LSu defense matches up well with Bama’s offense and can stack the box and play Julio man to man.I also believe LSU can run some on Bama.Hope I’m wrong(I usually am.I predicated Bama to lose 2 or 3 games last year).

Frank

October 27th, 2010
10:55 am

I am almost surprised Tony didn’t have a scenario for Georgia to play in the national title game.

Bubba

October 27th, 2010
10:56 am

Hey Gator fans, hows that Cam Newton thing working out for you. Kinda like that Hope and Change crap from nObama huh

Cooler Heads

October 27th, 2010
10:56 am

@Common sense prevails

Barners, Bammers, Corndogs… the list goes on. If you can’t take the heat, then stay the hell out of the kitchen. Please don’t resort to the tired, old “we have better academics” argument. This is a football blog.

ratherBgambling

October 27th, 2010
10:57 am

UF beats an undefeated Auburn in the SEC title game.

Oregon v BSU for it all……………..unfortunately

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:57 am

Cooler Heads

I was making a point, genius. You obviously missed it.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
10:57 am

Read the earlier post again – the point was that Bama’s linebackers are larger than LSU’s – not that our defensive ends are fat.

Actually it’s that our linebackers are bigger than LSU’s DEs. This also brings up and interesting question- I wonder if Cam has played against a 3-4 this year? The fourth linebacker puts another player on the field standing up that is better suited to pursue and tackle Cam than a fourth lineman would be.

bamafan

October 27th, 2010
10:57 am

Dear Common – thank you. Your post also proves my point. My e mail offered nothing but the facts and the only opinion I offered was that Cam Newton was good. Apparently you were not able to ascertain this complimentary note. I offered no derogatory information about Auburn but still managed to make you mad. Go figure.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:58 am

“UF beats an undefeated Auburn in the SEC title game.’

Meyer has never beaten Auburn.

Steve S

October 27th, 2010
10:59 am

I own Saban.Bamer sux

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:59 am

bamafan

The only point proven was how pious bama fans really are. Coming on blogs, always talking about their national titles. People who constantly talk about themselves and their achievements have either low self-esteem, or very small pen!ses.

WAR TO THE EAGLE

October 27th, 2010
10:59 am

@RTR…..Great logic dude. I guess you are right just because you say so. You just flat out ignored all my points. Did Alabama fans not say all those things about Auburn after Saban was hired or not? Listen to the Paul Finebaum show and tell me Alabama fans don’t care what Auburn is doing.

And as far as the Iron Bowl is concerned….Alabama has everything to lose not Auburn. this is because Alabama fans wanna sit here and say there is no way we can win. Well, maybe so, but if we do…oh the crow you are gonna eat. To hell with it…let it happen…let Alabama be 10-1 and Auburn 11-0. this way if Auburn wins there will be nothing an Alabama fan can say to Auburn. We would have come to your house and ripped not only the SEC West, but possibly another NT from you, and prove the point that Auburn can be good when Alabama is good too. You know, since your insecure fans say Auburn is only good when you are down…another FAIL.

bamafan

October 27th, 2010
11:00 am

Common – it would seem that he might be overdue then.

Cooler Heads

October 27th, 2010
11:00 am

@Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:57 am
Cooler Heads

I was making a point, genius. You obviously missed it.

Alternatively, one could say that you obviously failed.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
11:00 am

Hold up. Can you believe someone gets paid good money to write this article? This article is junk and is just common sense.

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
11:00 am

BAMA dude, Utah averages over 45000 per game attendance and has a pretty good football presence in its state. Boise St averaged 32,782. Its all about how much money they think they can generate. Boise St has more sustained football success then Utah does.

Nick Saban

October 27th, 2010
11:00 am

We just got a shipment of fat white girls. let the shady recruiting continue.

bamafan

October 27th, 2010
11:01 am

Common – check out DSM-IV and do some research on low self-esteem. Even when Auburn is good, the fans cannot handle success.

ratherBgambling

October 27th, 2010
11:01 am

“UF beats an undefeated Auburn in the SEC title game.’

Meyer has never beaten Auburn.”

So, Chizic has never beaten Florida.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:02 am

bamafan needs tweezers and a microscope, stat!

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:02 am

“So, Chizic has never beaten Florida.’

When has Chizek played Florida?

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
11:02 am

@cooler heads

Only when my Alma Mater is in the top 10 of the BCS

I love knowing I get under your skin, though.

If you can’t be loved, at least be hated.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:03 am

“Common – check out DSM-IV and do some research on low self-esteem. Even when Auburn is good, the fans cannot handle success.”

That makes about as much sense as what the ex-governor of Alabama did to black people in Selma, Alabama.

RTR!!!

October 27th, 2010
11:03 am

@WAR TO THE EAGLE

If Auburn wins the game against Bama, I will only have one thing to say to Auburn fans… Congratulations.

I’ll just assume that I can expect the same if Bama wins?

Gen Neyland

October 27th, 2010
11:03 am

Bama Logic : From what I read into the BCS mess created to find the real NC, style points will only count to the humans, not the computer. Are the humans of Sportsville so easily swayed by such a show of force over and against an inferior opponent..? Albeit, in todays world of the game, it may be said by one that came before us, ” Football doesn’t build character, it reveals it.”

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:04 am

TrishaDishaWarEagle

These bama fans are a fickle bunch ain’t they! One minute, they talk about Auburn being jealous and the next they throw out “we’z done woned us 13 national championchips! YEE HAW”

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:04 am

“I’ll just assume that I can expect the same if Bama wins?”

Absolutely. And I’ll wager a few dollars that most bama fans on this blog will chant “ha ha redheaded step children”

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
11:05 am

Bama dude, I do get it, my little brother graduated from GT. I guess the prejudice for my statements come from Alabama fans who fly the flags on their cars year round, having to read the vent on Sundays in the paper, listening to the “anger” in the voice of some of the Alabama fans on talk radio, and yes, Paul FineBUM. The ironic thing about him is he’s a UT grad. I hear hate in a lot of Alabama fans, I don’t like that. There is a percentage in all fan bases, but it’s larger with Bama than anywhere I’ve ever been. It’s beyone needling the other guy.

Strictly talking football, I agree with you assessments of most positions. Bama wins the battle in the trenches, which is where most games are won, and championships are won. They lack a leader on defense.

For Auburn, Fairley ripped through some double teams against LSU, which should/may allow some pressure to be put on McElroy, throwing in some bliz packages. Tide does have a better Oline though. McElroy hasn’t looked as sharp this year as he did a lot of last year.

If Newton goes down, hands down Auburn isn’t the same team obviously, but they aren’t a one trick pony. I think it will be a good game if Newton stays healthy. It could come down to turnovers, or special teams. To close for me to call, personally I don’t care who wins, just want to see an SEC team in the title game.

Your Medications

October 27th, 2010
11:06 am

We have tried to explain to you that you aren’t fooling anyone here. You are the only Auburn fan who doesn’t know how to spell own their Head Coach’s name.

Stop the insanity. Take us now!

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
11:08 am

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
11:00 am
BAMA dude, Utah averages over 45000 per game attendance and has a pretty good football presence in its state. Boise St averaged 32,782. Its all about how much money they think they can generate. Boise St has more sustained football success then Utah does.

And Boise St. is selling out every game, meaning they could probabluy sell more tickets if they had the seats. They have the enrollment to compete at almost 20,000. This means they have an alumni base as well. Like I said, expand the stadium (I have heard that this is on the table) and build the brand in the MWC for a few years. They can get there, they just never really tried before recently.

amg

October 27th, 2010
11:08 am

The SEC is hot garbage this year and if any of you freaks would be honest the SEC is about the 4th best conference in the country.

bamaguy

October 27th, 2010
11:08 am

If Alabama wins the remainder of our games we will go to the SEC championship game. As far as I am concerned that is controlling our own destiny. What happens with the BCS computers is out of anyone’s control. Let’s just play some football.

Being from Alabama but having lived in Atlanta for the past 25 years, it is nice having two schools in the BCS top ten who will probably remain there regardless of who wins the Alabama/Auburn game (you usually don’t drop that far when you lose to a quality opponent). No doubt which state really does rule college football.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
11:08 am

CSP, yep as I mentioned before, Tuscaloosa is a cherokee word meaning “no teeth”

RTR!!!

October 27th, 2010
11:10 am

Mobile Dawg,

If you are going to judge the Alabama fan-base by Finebaum’s callers, then you should at least give equal credit(?) to the fans of other programs that call the show.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
11:11 am

I will admit the BCS is about as cracked as Tony Romo’s clavicle, but having been screwed by the system in 2004, I am enjoying this one while I can..be it one week or till Jan 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 5th

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:11 am

“The SEC is hot garbage this year and if any of you freaks would be honest the SEC is about the 4th best conference in the country.”

Name a better conference.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
11:12 am

Time to go…WAR!!!!!!!!!!! DAMN!!!!!!!!!!!! EAGLE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kenny Powers

October 27th, 2010
11:12 am

Tony Barnhart: “Every team in the top eight has a meaningful road game”

Boise State @ Nevada.

Nevada? Nevada? You’re kidding Tony, right? Friggin Nevada would be below Kentucky in the SEC East.

Boise State should NOT get a BCS title shot this year regardless if they are the only undefeated team. They play 8 WAC teams for goodness sakes. The PAC 10 teams have a WAC team scheduled once and its on homecoming….what a laugh riot.

WashingtonDCduck

October 27th, 2010
11:12 am

Auburn does look pretty freaking good, Cam Newton is a ton of fun to watch. LSU’s defense is no slouch, and they looked pedestrian at times against the Heisman front runner. I’m really looking forward to the Iron Bowl. As for the other unbeatens, well…. My Oregon Ducks have a tough one Saturday night where they will get everything USC has and then some. Expect a 2006 flashback, with celebrities on the sidelines, USC trying to throw some flash and sizzle into the only football show in town in the nation’s #2 media market; it will be a circus in LA Saturday w/ESPN’s Gameday and Kirk and Brent calling the game. I exepct USC’s best, and this is their “Bowl” game really (hey, that’s what they are saying in their camp).

Oregon has not played anyone besides Stanford that is really all that, it’s pretty clear. BUT, and please understand, they have thoroughly beaten these lowly teams. Some of the teams were downright pummeled them into the ground. It’s not Oregon’s fault Tennessee is so down this year, and they did thump them just like Alabama did last Saturday night (and one could argue – check the statistics – even more so than the Tide). If Oregon is the real deal, they will get by USC on the road, beat Jake Locker’s Huskies at home, beat #15 U of A at home, CAL on the road, and the always tough Civil War at Oregon State. We shall see. Still, what Oregon has done against the given competition is pretty impressive, offensively and defensively (30th ranked defense in yards allowed, and 15th in country in defensive yards per play). The offensive numbers are great, but again, let’s measure it up against a few more stout defenses (Stanford’s is pretty good, and Oregon ran by them for 42 unanswered).

Boise State, well, I guess we will know a little more after they play Hawaii, Idaho, and Nevada. But seriously, those 3 previously mentioned schools are the measuring stick? Just doesn’t sound fair, when you see what Auburn is fighting right now or other BCS schools. I know BSU’s 1st string offense and defense can play with anyone, on a one game, 3 weeks to prepare or more game- but do they have the quality depth? Doesn’t really matter, because we are not asking if BSU could compete week in and week out in the SEC East or Big 12, but it’s a thought I’d throw out there. I don’t think so, just look into their #2 and #3 depth spots around that roster, and some gaping holes appear.

Again, same story with TCU and Utah. I personally think Utah will come out victorious in their battle in the Salt Lake Valley (if you have never been to a game in Salt Lake, you are missing out. It’s absolutely beautiful, with the mountains right on top of you – BYU as well. Smaller stadium, Utah’s, it does get loud, and is a nice home field advantage, but make that a list of college football venues to hit up in your lifetime). TCU and Utah are beating up on Colorado St, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, ect… sure they play one another, sure Utah goes to South Bend, but again, overall body of work. At this point, I would take Boise St. over a Mountain West champion.

Michigan St. showed some real grit in their win at Northwestern. I have not really seen them play a whole lot this year, therefore I’ve got limited opinion of them. Here in Washington DC, their alumni are fairly visible. Not sure why. I see MSU flags every now and then.

Lots of games left folks, it’s bittersweet, but we are about to enter November, with one fall October Saturday left. We’ll know more after Oregon visits L.A., see if Masoli and Ole Miss give Auburn trouble in Oxford (probably not). Utah hosting TCU a week from Saturday will show a lot as well of course. We shall see.

Anyone else surprised at Notre Dame’s lack of punch this year? Hey, I hate them just as much as a lot of others, but gee whiz, they got mauled by Navy. Western Michigan gave them a run for their money in South Bend, wow. ND, who cares…. Just thought I’d mention it.

amg

October 27th, 2010
11:13 am

Bamaguy – AMEN this year you are right. But I totally disagree with a one loss team jumping an undefeated team for the championship. It is fundamentally wrong and goes against the nature of the game. You decide football on the field and for you Alabama fans, you lost a game, Most likely that ended any shot at a NC this year. the only chance would be if everyone else lost a game.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
11:15 am

Whatever Trish. I am not going to start insulting cities, but as far as I am concerned Tuscaloosa is one of the nicest towns in the South. Auburn is not comparable because it is so small.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
11:15 am

And as far as the Iron Bowl is concerned….Alabama has everything to lose not Auburn. this is because Alabama fans wanna sit here and say there is no way we can win.

If Aubie is still number one going into the Iron Bowl, this will certainly not be the case. Bama will have the advantage of calling themselves an underdog at home (even though Vegas will likely assign them as favorites). I’m telling you, this season parallels 2008 for Bama in so many ways, we are just looking at it from the other side. We had a nice team that year, got to number one for awhile, and Florida loat to Ole Miss. By the end of the year Florida, preseason #1 and the team most everyone knew was the better team all along, was playing to their potential and knocked us off in the SECCG. I see a lot of the same things happening here.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:15 am

WashingtonDCduck

Nothing would please me more to see Oregon totally destroy Alabama on national television.

McDawg

October 27th, 2010
11:17 am

after this weekend Bama will not have to worry about MSU, Mizzou and possibly but i doubt it-Oregon

bamafan

October 27th, 2010
11:17 am

Trisha – the word “Tuscaloosa” comes from the Choctaw language.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:18 am

“I am not going to start insulting cities, but as far as I am concerned Tuscaloosa is one of the nicest towns in the South. Auburn is not comparable because it is so small.”

Uh……so a small town can’t be nice because it’s small? Geez, talk about low self-esteem.

When southern towns are mentioned, Tuscaloosa is never ever ever ever never ever mentioned.

Nicest towns in the south: Athens, Oxford, Savannah, Charleston, Hilton Head……..

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:18 am

“the word “Tuscaloosa” comes from the Choctaw language.”

I bet George Wallace would have hosed them down as well.

Don4654

October 27th, 2010
11:18 am

Trisha,very funny but in reality Tuscaloosa is a Creek indian word meaning”Black Warrior”.

bamafan

October 27th, 2010
11:19 am

Common – what is your point?

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
11:20 am

“Tuscaloosa is a Creek indian word meaning”Black Warrior”.”

Talk about an oxymoron.