Alabama can jump over Boise, but can it jump over Michigan State, Missouri?

Here are some of the BCS questions I’ve gotten since the new standings came out on Sunday. Included are my best answers after talking to a bunch of people smarter than me:

1. If No.1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon win out, will they play in the BCS title game regardless of what everyone else does?  The answer appears to be yes. Oregon is a solid No. 1 in the human polls and that doesn’t figure to change as long as the Ducks keep winning and winning impressively. Oregon is No. 8 in the computer polls but its numbers should improve with games against USC, Cal, and Oregon State down the stretch. Auburn’s a lock to stay No. 1 in the BCS Standings as long as the Tigers win.  They are already No. 1 in the computers and that won’t change with a date looming against No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 26.

2. We have seven undefeated teams left. What are the odds that we will still have four or more when the season is over? It would say the odds are pretty long. First of all, two of the undefeated teams—TCU and Utah—face each other in Salt Lake on Nov. 6. Every team in the top eight has a meaningful road game or two where they could stumble. Here is the list:

1. AUBURN (8-0): at Ole Miss, Oct. 30; at Alabama, Nov. 26

2. OREGON (7-0): at USC, Oct. 30; at California, Nov. 13; at Oregon State, Dec. 4

3. BOISE STATE (6-0): at Nevada, Nov. 26

4. TCU (8-0):  at Utah, Nov. 6

5. MICHIGAN STATE (8-0): at Iowa, Oct. 30; at Penn State, Nov. 27

6. MISSOURI (7-0): at Nebraska, Oct. 30.; at Texas Tech, Nov. 6; at Iowa State, Nov. 20

7. ALABAMA (6-1): at LSU, Nov. 6.

8. UTAH (7-0): at Air Force, Oct. 30.

 

3. If we end the season with only two undefeated teams—Boise State and TCU—will they play for the BCS championship? I doubt it. It’s not impossible for two non-AQ’s (automatic qualifiers) to play for the national title but I have to believe that a one-loss team from one of the power conferences could slip in there and jump either TCU or Boise, especially if that team has played 13 games (instead of 12) and won its conference championship. For example: No. 7 Alabama has the perfect schedule to move up the rankings if a bunch of teams in front of them lose. The Crimson Tide plays No. 12 LSU, No. 21 Mississippi State, and No. 1 Auburn in the month of November. Should Alabama win all those games and then win the SEC championship to finish 12-1, I would expect Alabama to jump over an undefeated Boise or an undefeated TCU for a spot in the BCS title game.

4. So you’re saying that it’s possible that if No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon lose down the stretch, then either No. 3 Boise State or No. 4 TCU could get left out of the  BCS championship game even if they go undefeated? Won’t that make a lot of people mad and create a whole bunch of criticism for the BCS yet again? Won’t that bring about cries for Congressional investigations and speeches from politicians (in Idaho and Texas) about how awful the BCS is?

You betcha.

Won’t that FINALLY blow up the BCS?

Nope. Got three years left on the contract.

5. Okay, so a 12-1 Alabama can jump over an undefeated Boise or TCU. Could a 12-1 Alabama jump over an undefeated Michigan State or an undefeated Missouri into the BCS championship game?

Okay, now you’re getting greedy. The answer is probably not. According to Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com, a one-loss team from one of the six original BCS conferences has never jumped over an undefeated team from another BCS conference to play in the championship game. The SEC folks may argue that their one-loss team is more deserving, given the fact that their conference has won four straight national championships. But an undefeated Big Ten champion or an undefeated Big 12 champion is going to get an edge over a one-loss SEC champion when it comes down to the final human polls.

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652 comments Add your comment

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
10:03 am

Bama fans are out in full force this morning trying to defend their one loss record by putting an undefeated team down.

Face it jammers, Bama is not going to play for the national title game. There is no way they will jump over 6 unbeaten teams.

Have fun at the Outback Bowl.

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
10:05 am

“I’d say Missy State did a pretty good job. LSU is very small up front this year by their standards. Bama’s LBs weigh more than their DEs.’

Ah, so fat defensive ends will track down Cam Newton?

blaze

October 27th, 2010
10:05 am

Sorry Roger, but I don’t want to waste an entire year’s worth of football just to convince idiots like you that Boise State is the same Boise State that has been prisonraped by every SEC team they’ve played in the past 10 years. Why waste an entire year just to show morons how stupid they are?

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
10:05 am

“The BCS Championship means nothing if all teams do not have access.”

We learned that a long long time ago.

Trey

October 27th, 2010
10:06 am

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
10:08 am

“The ACC”

Ok, we got that one out of the way.

Nicole

October 27th, 2010
10:09 am

@Jay. Bama irrelevant? Really now? With 13 National Championships under their belts? You really shouldn’t comment unless its note-worthy.

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
10:10 am

“With 13 National Championships under their belts? ”

8, according to ESPN.

Palladin

October 27th, 2010
10:15 am

1. Obviously. Auburn and Oregon truly control their own destiny. Oregon has not played a quality opponent and could easily fall to an inferior opponent before the season ends. One can only hope that the Auburn players are not as consumed with the Crimson Tide as is the Auburn fan-base. Looking ahead at this point in the season in the SEC can be deadly.

2. The odds are very low that most of these teams will remain undefeated. Boise State probably will, but that is about as relevant as whether Hoover High School has a perfect season.

3. No. Neither team deserves to be ranked in the Top Ten with the schedules that they play.

4. See 3. Your buddy Timmy might have an aneurysm, but he only plays this “BCS Buster” game because his beloved Corndogs aren’t in the title hunt.

5. Depends. Voters have played this silly game of pretending that Boise and TCU are contenders for so long, they are confused now that two other non-contenders (from actual BCS Conferences) have a shot at going undefeated as well. If Alabama finishes strong and defeats #1 Auburn, then wins a rematch against South Carolina in the SECCG, their only loss of the season will have been rendered null. If this scenario played out, then Alabama would contend for the title. Alabama needs help (mostly from Auburn and South Carolina) to make it to the BCSCG, but it is certainly possible. If Auburn loses prior to playing Alabama, and if South Carolina doesn’t make it to the SECCG, then Bama would need a meltdown among the remaining undefeated teams to make it in.

Everything is speculation at this point, but that’s what we’re here for, isn’t it?

Tony

October 27th, 2010
10:19 am

I just love all the SEC fans thinking it is their God given right to rule the BCS and all the BCS games, particularly the NC game. You guys sure love bashing BSU. First, give Oregon equal time here…there schedule of alleged creampuffs this year is worse than BSU. Second, how come it is when one of your high and might SEC teams stuggles agaunst a cream puff…Alamba,a comes to mind and San Jose State (the worst of the WAC…all is forgiven and gorgotten, yet Boise doesn’t play a flawless game, but still wins by 3 TD’s and it is a beatdown city? Third…how many times do people have to say this…Virtually any BCS AQ team has a huge financial edge. SEC teams in particular have budgets that dwarf non AQ teams. You don’t think that if BSU, TCU, Nevada etc had the millions they have, they couldn’t field competitive teams like you are always hollering about? 4, SEC fans think it is so easy for BSU to just switch conferences…are you kidding me? Has any BCS AQ conference ever extended an offer to BSU to join it? NO!

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
10:19 am

Anyone who thinks that Boise St should be even considered for the National Championship game should be removed from this website. Last night was a perfect example of what a mediocre team they are. They turned the ball over to La Tech two maybe three times. La Tech would have scored at least 3 TD’s but made some really stupid mistakes in the red zone. It had absolutely nothing to do with Boise’s defence. SEC and Big 12 teams would not make those mistakes. La Tech is a typical opponent for Boise St. Hey anyone could go undefeated with that schedule.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:22 am

Enter your comments here

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
10:22 am

I for one am NOT overlooking Ole Miss, I am sure coach Chizik has shown the team the UF Ole Miss video and a text of the tebow speech, I just can’t help laughing at the ole miss black bear. Col. Reb was so much cooler. Like Col. Sanders but with a walking stick/weapon instead of chicken.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
10:22 am

Trey: The ACC? Are you kidding? No seriously. C’mon tell us what’s a better conference than the SEC.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:23 am

Auburn is not overlooking Ole Miss like some folks here seem to think. In fact, from watching every Auburn game this season, it doesn’t look like Auburn has overlooked any opponent. Yes, they’ve looked shaky in games like Clemson and KY but so what, all that matters is having a W after the game. Chizek has his team grounded and focused. Cam is focused and watches tapes with Malzahn everyday.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:24 am

“I just love all the SEC fans thinking it is their God given right to rule the BCS and all the BCS games, particularly the NC game. ”

Name ONE conference that has won back to back to back to back title games with three different teams.

ONE!

Your Medications

October 27th, 2010
10:25 am

We are here for you Patty. Please let us help you.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:25 am

PC Easy

Boise also had to use a trick play to beat them.

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
10:29 am

Auburn controls their own destiny, period. There are some very gracious Bama fans, a couple that post here come to mind. My question to the rest is “why” can’t you give Auburn their due? Thing with you Bammers is your program is storied, with a lot of history, and for a long time that’s all most of the people of Alabama had to hang their hat on. That means, it’s all you could identify with, being from Alabama, that’s where you got your self esteem.

That’s changing rapidly now. Alabama has become a land of opportunity, jobs, schools are improving, race relations are improving. Alabama is attracting International Business. In other words, Alabama is moving out of the dark ages. You can start being proud of your state for other reasons than just having a “great football history”. Grow up, mature a bit, you will look better to the rest of the nation.

This isn’t aimed at “Alabama Alumni” and good fans. This is for you ignorant, arrogant, souls, that have nothing else to live for except “Alabama Football”. If this identifies “YOU” feel free to comment.

Cooler Heads

October 27th, 2010
10:29 am

@Common sense prevails

You’re right. Auburn has played lights-out in every game. That said, they have not done it while carrying the No.1 ranking on their backs. It can be a very heavy burden — especially for a program that is not accustomed to the limelight.

WAR TO THE EAGLE

October 27th, 2010
10:31 am

Auburn fans obsessed with Bam fans? You’ve got to be kidding. All Auburn fans are doing is trying to enjoy this season with a very special player, but we find ourselves having to defend an undefeated season at the moment, and having to listen to Bama fans try and justify how wrong they were. When Saban was hired, they said we wouldn’t be abl to recruit….FAIL. Then they said we wouldn’t win another Iron Bowl….FAIL. Then they said we couldn’t get any in state talent…FAIL…Now we sit at #1 in the BCS in year 2….What’s next?…If any of you would not like Cam Newton on your team please raise your hand. That’s what I thought. Keep thinking we are a one man team….that’s right when Mccalebb takes the corner or Dyer goes up the middle. Shut Cam down a little? Maybe. But the guy has 1400 passing yards in a limited role. He can throw.

I am a realist. I understand it is a tall order for Auburn to go undefeated this year. Some tough games are ahead. But no matter what happens…Auburn is proving Alabama wrong in every category you can think of…and they can’t stand how wrong they were.

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
10:33 am

The BCS championship is most likely going to be Oregon vs Missouri or Mich St. Which is a shame, because Boise would probably beat all three. Oh well, the corrupt and incompetent BCS sham continues. Ruining college football for another season.

Cooler Heads

October 27th, 2010
10:36 am

@Mobile Dawg

A Georgian is going to lecture Alabamians about having pride in their home state?

That’s rich! ;-)

Georgia is an okay place to do business, but I certainly wouldn’t want to live there. Judging by your screen name, you didn’t either. If Tech wasn’t such a disappointment, then Georgia fans would understand the intensity of an historic, in-state rivalry.

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
10:36 am

War To The Eagle, Auburn doesn’t have to defend anything, except the “goal line”. I’m so tired of hearing the “negative” part of Bama Nation run down Auburn and the good that’s going on down there it’s sickening. May not happen but I hope the “War Eagle” lays a golden egg this year and wins a National Title. Not sure if a lot of the Bama fans could handle it.

Enjoy your great season, and good luck the rest of the way….

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
10:38 am

Tony, some BCS conference will take Boise if their success proves somewhat sustainable. You can’t go from the WAC straight to a big conference. If they expand the stadium and dominate the MWC for a few years as Utah did then they’ll probably get an invite. Painting that hideous field wouldn’t hurt either.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
10:41 am

Tech actually has more NCs than UGA, and their last one is 11 years newer than UGAs

I grew up a Tech fan, but when i visited AU, I fel in love with the campus, and when I drove by tech all the time, I just saw..homeless people drinking from a paper bag….

WAR DAMN EAGLE!!!!!!

RTR!!!

October 27th, 2010
10:41 am

@WAR TO THE EAGLE

You prove the point. Bama fans couldn’t care less what Auburn fans think of their program. Even with an undefeated season and a #1 BCS ranking, Auburn fans are still obsessed with what Bama fans think of them. Here’s a clue — Bama fans DON’T really care what you guys do until November 26. Until then, we would just like for you to keep winning all of your games.

Boise Dawg

October 27th, 2010
10:42 am

The Boise bashing is getting a little carried away. Did they look like a top 5 team last night? No, I would agree with that… but name me one team in any season that hasn’t had an off week. I realize it was La Tech, but they still won by 29pts and would have won by even more had La Tech not scored a meaningless touchdown with a minute to go.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
10:43 am

I am so glad when I was looking for schools, I picked BAMA over Auburn. You Tiger fans have a real chip on your shoulder huh?

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
10:43 am

BAMA dude, Boise St is never getting an invite to a BCS conference. All that the major conferences care about is money and Boise St doesn’t bring in enough to justify splitting it with them. Thats why Boise St wasn’t even mentioned in the expansion craziness from this summer. Success means nothing when choosing new members for a conference.

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
10:45 am

Made it to Mobile via a long road that did begin way back when in Georgia. That road wound through Oklahoma, Florida, and now Alabama. I consider Alabama home and will live out my life here. I didn’t intend lecture Alabamians, there are a lot of “fine” “Americans” here. Just a slice of the culture that a lecture won’t really do anything to change. I just vented a bit.

I have a lot of respect for what Nick Saban has built and wish we could do the same in Athens. Maybe one day it will happen. Still a fan, and supporter of UGA, always will be. I’m not the jealous type fan, when I see something successful, I acknowledge it.

Alphare

October 27th, 2010
10:45 am

If Auburn plays Oregon in the NC game, I expect a score of 55-54 on Auburn’s favor.

BTW, Newton scores the last touchdown by stomping 3 little Oregon defenders.

Cooler Heads

October 27th, 2010
10:45 am

Boise Dawg

October 27th, 2010
10:42 am
The Boise bashing is getting a little carried away. Did they look like a top 5 team last night? No,

You could have just stopped right there. They’re never going to look like a Top 5 team until they start playing some Top 10 competition.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
10:46 am

no AP Poll until week 6 would help eleviate some of this mess..boise is there because they were ranked high because of last year..the polls should only be about present year..

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:46 am

“You prove the point. Bama fans couldn’t care less what Auburn fans think of their program. Even with an undefeated season and a #1 BCS ranking, Auburn fans are still obsessed with what Bama fans think of them. Here’s a clue — Bama fans DON’T really care what you guys do until November 26. Until then, we would just like for you to keep winning all of your games.”

Try reading some of the Bama fans comments on this blog.

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
10:47 am

Exactly Boise Dawg, Boise St plays a bad game and wins by 29 and people criticize them. LSU played McNeese St, struggled with them and ended up winning by 22 and they are a great team for doing so. They even moved up in the rankings. You gotta love the irony.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:47 am

Cooler Heads

Yeah I understand that which is why preseason polls are garbage. Auburn never acted like it was a number one team. They are just having fun and winning along the way.

Cooler Heads

October 27th, 2010
10:49 am

@Common sense prevails

Most of that garbage is just Trisha Disha refusing to take her medications. That troll makes over half of the posts on this blog every day.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
10:49 am

Mobile Dawg, you obviously don’t understand but you should. UGA has a little brother in the state too. How many times have I read 45-42 on here? When one program is clearly dominant over another within a state, the little brother program tends to get overly loud and obnoxious at the first sign of success. Annoying to say the least. As RTR said, I could care less what they do. I just think Bama has the better overall roster. In fact, I’d submit that Bama is better at every position on the field except Newton’s and perhaps Fairley’s (if Dareus is healthy after the bye that will be neutralized). If I’m correct about that then the game should go as I expect it to, Bama by 7-10 points.

WashingtonDCduck

October 27th, 2010
10:50 am

***BLAZE*** “”He also didn’t get it that Oregon is deliberately running up the score against weak opponents.”"

Can you tell me how many Oregon games you have watched this year, say… halftime through the end of the game? I’ve seen every snap Oregon has taken this year, and if there is one thing I am damn sure of this year it’s that the Ducks are not running it up on people. Sorry pal, you are dead wrong on this one. We have not lined it up, 5 WRs and chucked the ball down the field, going for it on fourth down, blah blah blah. Simply running the spread option, with one of two things happening – either the QB is taking it or the RB, the latter more likely. LaMichael James and Darron Thomas, amongst other offensive starters, have only played a few full games all year- because they are sitting out fourth quarters.

I saw that comment and I had to respond. I’m sure you are up to speed whoever your horse in the race is, but this is one that I had to jump on.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:50 am

“I am so glad when I was looking for schools, I picked BAMA over Auburn. You Tiger fans have a real chip on your shoulder huh?”

And there we go again. Auburn and Alabama rank side by side in the list of best universities in the country. The ONLY SEC school that can talk about great academic programs is Vandy. Not ONE school in the SEC ranks anywhere near where Vandy ranks.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
10:50 am

Anybody notice those empty seats in Boise last night? Nobody is fooled by their weak schedule. Not even the residents of Idaho. Nobody will consider BSU for a major conference, they’ll never bring in any money.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
10:51 am

Boise is 3rd, what else do they want? maybe they did stomp La Tech, Auburn beat LSU…of those two wins this week, which was more impressive? thus Boise should not jump ahead..

Plus, I would penalize them for the smurf turf…that is very hard on the eyes in 1080p

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:51 am

“Most of that garbage is just Trisha Disha refusing to take her medications. That troll makes over half of the posts on this blog every day.”

You should check out some of the other fans who call Auburn folks, barners etc…

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:51 am

“If I’m correct about that then the game should go as I expect it to, Bama by 7-10 points.”

Of course you would, Biased Bama dude.

bamafan

October 27th, 2010
10:51 am

Hey Bama Logic – Bama claims 13 NC’s. ESPN says 8. Those 8 are the 6 AP (61,64,65,78,79, and 92) 1 – UPI (73) and 1 – BCS (2009). The other FIVE BAMA claims are from the 1925 undefeated Rose Bowl Champs, the 1926 undefeated Rose Bowl Champs, the 1930 Undefeated Rose Bowl Champs, and the 1934 Undefeated Rose Bowl Champs. Those FOUR occurred before the Polls were established. Bama also claims 1941 – awarded by Houlgate. This totals 13.

Bama has FIVE more that we DO NOT claim as they were awarded by lesser organizations and were awarded in years where there was a consensus or near consensus champion. These years are 1945, 1962, 1966, 1975, and 1977.

Read the earlier post again – the point was that Bama’s linebackers are larger than LSU’s – not that our defensive ends are fat. Still don’t know if they can stop Cam Newton. Please try posting constructive comments instead of picking fights. By the way, your posts confirm the truth of my original post: get the chip off your shoulder.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
10:51 am

GTBob, sustained success brings money into the program. Again, you think Utah would have been invited to join the PAC-10 even a few years ago? No way.

Cooler Heads

October 27th, 2010
10:52 am

@PC Easy

Good point. It’s hard to argue to the nation that you’re #1 when your own fans don’t even believe it.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:52 am

WashingtonDCduck

Beat four top ranked schools and then we’ll talk. So far, Auburn and Bama have both beaten multiple ranked teams.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
10:53 am

bamafan is the perfect example of an obnoxious bama fan.