Alabama can jump over Boise, but can it jump over Michigan State, Missouri?

Here are some of the BCS questions I’ve gotten since the new standings came out on Sunday. Included are my best answers after talking to a bunch of people smarter than me:

1. If No.1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon win out, will they play in the BCS title game regardless of what everyone else does?  The answer appears to be yes. Oregon is a solid No. 1 in the human polls and that doesn’t figure to change as long as the Ducks keep winning and winning impressively. Oregon is No. 8 in the computer polls but its numbers should improve with games against USC, Cal, and Oregon State down the stretch. Auburn’s a lock to stay No. 1 in the BCS Standings as long as the Tigers win.  They are already No. 1 in the computers and that won’t change with a date looming against No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 26.

2. We have seven undefeated teams left. What are the odds that we will still have four or more when the season is over? It would say the odds are pretty long. First of all, two of the undefeated teams—TCU and Utah—face each other in Salt Lake on Nov. 6. Every team in the top eight has a meaningful road game or two where they could stumble. Here is the list:

1. AUBURN (8-0): at Ole Miss, Oct. 30; at Alabama, Nov. 26

2. OREGON (7-0): at USC, Oct. 30; at California, Nov. 13; at Oregon State, Dec. 4

3. BOISE STATE (6-0): at Nevada, Nov. 26

4. TCU (8-0):  at Utah, Nov. 6

5. MICHIGAN STATE (8-0): at Iowa, Oct. 30; at Penn State, Nov. 27

6. MISSOURI (7-0): at Nebraska, Oct. 30.; at Texas Tech, Nov. 6; at Iowa State, Nov. 20

7. ALABAMA (6-1): at LSU, Nov. 6.

8. UTAH (7-0): at Air Force, Oct. 30.

 

3. If we end the season with only two undefeated teams—Boise State and TCU—will they play for the BCS championship? I doubt it. It’s not impossible for two non-AQ’s (automatic qualifiers) to play for the national title but I have to believe that a one-loss team from one of the power conferences could slip in there and jump either TCU or Boise, especially if that team has played 13 games (instead of 12) and won its conference championship. For example: No. 7 Alabama has the perfect schedule to move up the rankings if a bunch of teams in front of them lose. The Crimson Tide plays No. 12 LSU, No. 21 Mississippi State, and No. 1 Auburn in the month of November. Should Alabama win all those games and then win the SEC championship to finish 12-1, I would expect Alabama to jump over an undefeated Boise or an undefeated TCU for a spot in the BCS title game.

4. So you’re saying that it’s possible that if No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon lose down the stretch, then either No. 3 Boise State or No. 4 TCU could get left out of the  BCS championship game even if they go undefeated? Won’t that make a lot of people mad and create a whole bunch of criticism for the BCS yet again? Won’t that bring about cries for Congressional investigations and speeches from politicians (in Idaho and Texas) about how awful the BCS is?

You betcha.

Won’t that FINALLY blow up the BCS?

Nope. Got three years left on the contract.

5. Okay, so a 12-1 Alabama can jump over an undefeated Boise or TCU. Could a 12-1 Alabama jump over an undefeated Michigan State or an undefeated Missouri into the BCS championship game?

Okay, now you’re getting greedy. The answer is probably not. According to Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com, a one-loss team from one of the six original BCS conferences has never jumped over an undefeated team from another BCS conference to play in the championship game. The SEC folks may argue that their one-loss team is more deserving, given the fact that their conference has won four straight national championships. But an undefeated Big Ten champion or an undefeated Big 12 champion is going to get an edge over a one-loss SEC champion when it comes down to the final human polls.

Please follow me on Twitter:

www.twitter.com/MrCFB

Barnhart and Durham: Charles Davis of SEC Gridiron Live on Fox Sports South will be among our guests on today’s “Barnhart and Durham”  Join us live at 10 a.m. www.790thezone.com.

652 comments Add your comment

Boodawg

October 27th, 2010
9:28 am

I’m just thrilled my Dawgs can beat FL and then AUB (42-0) + the GTlarvae, and the human voters will have them play for the title!

Driving Ms Dooley

October 27th, 2010
9:28 am

Good call Bama dude on Petrino. Except Hitler never quit so maybe we go back to Kiffen on that one. I don’t know. It’s complicated. I’m calling my history professor. Professor Dooley. I heard he’s getting a late night talk show on ESPN after SportCenter. The guy is hilarious.
Germans…

J Clay

October 27th, 2010
9:29 am

My UGA wish list for this weekend (in order):
1. No trick uniforms
2. No dancing in the end zone or sidelines or anywhere else on the field
3. Victory over the Gators
4. No late hits/taunting penalties
5. Victory over the Gators by more than 20 points

ATL is TigerTown

October 27th, 2010
9:29 am

When will you bammers stop living in the past? Mr Bryant is dead. He died after a crushing defeat at the hands of Auburn and Pat Dye. And last year is history. Get it, J-ack T-urkey? Until UAT wins out, they are irrelevant. Live with it.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
9:30 am

Bama dude, I do think we match up better with you guys on D than Auburn. You are right about our offense. my biggest worry is your DL. It will be a problem for us as our O line is at best average.

To win they will have to find yards and points through the air, that’s for sure. Ridley is tough and will probably have some success but not enough to score many points.

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:31 am

Driving Ms Dooley

Saban doesn’t get to be Churchill. Churchill had a sense of humor.

Saban gets to play Douglas MacArthur……come to think of it, it would be uplifting to see 100,000 corn cob pipes in BDS.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
9:33 am

When will you bammers stop living in the past? Mr Bryant is dead. He died after a crushing defeat at the hands of Auburn and Pat Dye. And last year is history. Get it, J-ack T-urkey? Until UAT wins out, they are irrelevant. Live with it.

2004. Auburn’s last SEC Championship and only one in the last 20 years. I guess you are an authority on irrelevance, huh?

You Ain't-Know Gaily Whacker

October 27th, 2010
9:33 am

The Reporter: Mr. McGarity, did you really lose a top prospect to Tennessee ?

Greg: It’s sad but true. He would have been our first Royal Player Here is a picture.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,336667,00.html

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
9:34 am

Driving Ms Dooley

October 27th, 2010
9:28 am
Good call Bama dude on Petrino. Except Hitler never quit so maybe we go back to Kiffen on that one.

Hitler quit life.

Driving Ms Dooley

October 27th, 2010
9:35 am

I’m liking Saban as MacArthur. That’s a good call. Throw away all your houndstooth hats Bama fans. It’s time to pull out the corn cobbs.

Hey I’m going to the Vols-SC game this Saturday. Anybody know where I can get an authentic German Helmet? Maybe some WWII binoculars?

Miles

October 27th, 2010
9:35 am

Bama and Boise in the BCS National Championship…you better get on Pat Forde’s bus…it’s gonna happen!

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
9:39 am

Miles, I hope Boise doesn’t get in there. Of course, if that finally motivates the big boys to look seriously at a playoff then maybe it’s a good thing.

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:42 am

BAMA dude = angry, bitter, little person.

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:43 am

Driving Ms Dooley

to get an authentic German helmet, just contact your local Hell’s Angels field office….of course you’ll have a National Security van in your driveway for the next six years, but you’ll be a big hit at the game

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:43 am

make that Homeland Security

Ehhh......

October 27th, 2010
9:44 am

Am I the only one that thinks Boise didn’t look like the #3 team in the nation last night? Sure they won, but since we’re subjected to treat college football like a beauty pageant, they didn’t necessarily look like the prettiest girl on the stage last night.

Sam

October 27th, 2010
9:45 am

Bama Dude,

You cannot have a job. Seriously, stop sponging off your poor elderly parents and get off your butt and out of their basement!!

killcasualfan

October 27th, 2010
9:46 am

J Clay
Current odds to win BCS title as of this morning from site I use:
Bama +225
Boise St +225
Oregon +180
Auburn +350
Mizzou +2000
Mich St +2000
TCU +700
Utah +7500
Nebraska +3000
FSU +7500
Oklahoma +10000
Ohio St +5000

—————-

So Mizz has better odds of reaching the NC game than Nebraska. Then why do they have Nebraska favored by almost a TD over Mizz this Saturday?

blaze

October 27th, 2010
9:47 am

Why is it every other team can wear retro jerseys, change their color scheme, what have you, and no one bats an eye. UGA wears jerseys/helmets that are apart of their color scheme, and everyone sh*ts bricks????

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
9:48 am

Ehhh……

October 27th, 2010
9:44 am
Am I the only one that thinks Boise didn’t look like the #3 team in the nation last night?

No you aren’t. They are by far the most overrated team in the nation.

gomdawg

October 27th, 2010
9:48 am

Ehhh , I didn’t see the game and I agree they are not # 3 in nation my 12th

SEC Least

October 27th, 2010
9:49 am

Could Colorado win the SEC Least? Since they cancelled the SEC championship, will my ticket get me into the Monster Truck show that night at the Georgia Dome?

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:49 am

“No you aren’t. They are by far the most overrated team in the nation.”

And Auburn is next, right Bama dude?

JASon

October 27th, 2010
9:51 am

“Should Alabama win all those games and then win the SEC championship”

This is hard to watch. Mr. college football is breaking down right before our very eyes. Poor guy.

classical jazz

October 27th, 2010
9:53 am

Tony -

What are Nesbitt’s chances to pull out the Heisman? Is he still one of their front runners?

SEC Least = jealous Tech fan

October 27th, 2010
9:54 am

How is that Nesbitt Heisman campaign going for ya, winner?

You Ain't-Know Gaily Whacker

October 27th, 2010
9:54 am

Driving Ms Dooley

October 27th, 2010
9:55 am

JAYson I agree. Bama won’t win out. The only person to stop Cam Newton this year is Gene Chizik(sp) when he pulled him from the game against a week team.

bamafan

October 27th, 2010
9:55 am

I love it. Bama fans on the blog providing complimentary assessment of Auburn. Auburn fans on the blog are incapable of the art of gracious acceptance. Yes, Bama lives in the past. The football past at Alabama dates from the first Southern Conference title in the 20’s thru last year. Next year, this year will be in the past as well.

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:56 am

since I can’t stay around very long this morning, I wanted to leave a little poem for Trish (or as we think of her “Her Highness”)

It’s called “It doesn’t matter”

Trish, it doesn’t matter
if your matted pubes stretch from
four inches above your navel
down your tree-trunked sized thighs to your knees.
It doesn’t matter.

It doesn’t matter if your overbite is so severe
that any man desperate enough
to ask you out
would have his zipper welded shut
It doesn’t matter

It doesn’t matter
that the sum-total of your football knowledge
is limited to one raging argument
“Is it blown up with air, or stuffed with chicken feathers?”
It doesn”t matter

What matters is. You’re here, and the mere fact that you “are”, let’s us “be”.

So lay some insight on us…..Trish……babe

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:57 am

“I love it. Bama fans on the blog providing complimentary assessment of Auburn. Auburn fans on the blog are incapable of the art of gracious acceptance. ”

Bama logic.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
9:57 am

blaze

October 27th, 2010
9:47 am
Why is it every other team can wear retro jerseys, change their color scheme, what have you, and no one bats an eye. UGA wears jerseys/helmets that are apart of their color scheme, and everyone sh*ts bricks????

Most fans of any program would be OK with retro “tribute” unis I’d think. For whatever reason the “gimmick” unis have been worn in games where the Dawgs laid an egg. The unis just end up being the scapegoat.

Coach Dooley

October 27th, 2010
9:57 am

Well the Germans would have run it up the middle with the Panzer divisions and then punted only as a last resort.

STEVE

October 27th, 2010
9:58 am

Auburn pulled it out of their b*!!s against Mississippi State 17-14, Clemson 27-24 OT, and Kentucky 37-34. And where was the defense when they played Arkansas?? 65-43! 108 points in a football game.

Auburn has been lucky (aka LSU). One person cannot carry an entire football team (see Michigan or Ohio State). They will lose at least one maybe two games.

BOB

October 27th, 2010
9:59 am

Who has Oregon played to date? Division II Portland State with a 2-5 record. New Mexico who hasn’t won a game in two years (0-7). Tennessee (2-5). Arizona State (3-4). Washington State who is 1-7 with that ONE win coming against Montana State! The DUCKS ONLY quality win thus far was against Stanford. Period. The DUCKS defense is suspect.

TOM

October 27th, 2010
9:59 am

Who has Oregon played to date? Division II Portland State with a 2-5 record. New Mexico who hasn’t won a game in two years (0-7). Tennessee (2-5). Arizona State (3-4). Washington State who is 1-7 with that ONE win coming against Montana State! The DUCKS ONLY quality win thus far was against Stanford. Period. The DUCKS defense is suspect.

Auburn pulled it out of their b*!!s against Mississippi State 17-14, Clemson 27-24 OT, and Kentucky 37-34. And where was the defense when they played Arkansas?? 65-43! 108 points in a football game.

The Ducks haven’t been tested. They will lose at least one maybe two games.

Auburn has been lucky (aka LSU). One person cannot carry an entire football team (see Michigan or Ohio State). They will lose at least one maybe two games.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
9:59 am

All these GA fans who LOST 4 straight without a certain player say 1 player can;t carry a team? funny..

And cam doesnt carry the team, he is by far the best player on the team, but scheming to stop him opens up everyone else..plus the added advantage that you still can;t stop cam when you scheme for him..when any of YOUR teams have 4 straight 300 yrd rushing games against SEC opponents, I’ll listen to the luck argument. Rushing for 300 yrds wears a defense the hell out..thats why we pile on points in the 2nd half of games.

blaze

October 27th, 2010
10:00 am

Exactly dude. The media idiots latch onto to the uniforms as a way to bash Richt and accuse him of a being a lazy coach by implying he just throws the team “cool, new jerseys and helmets” as though that’s all he thinks he has to do to prepare a team.

Coach Dooley

October 27th, 2010
10:00 am

killcasualfan Yes but what about the odds for those ferocious Dawgs???

Trey

October 27th, 2010
10:00 am

No it can’t you dumba$$ because the sec is not the best conf this year and bama will lose again you moron.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
10:00 am

Hey ATL Tigers fan – I guess there is much of a past for Tiger fans to look back on huh? So let’s look to your future: disappointment on the faces of Auburn fans when BAMA ends the Tigers’ perfect season in Tuscaloosa next month. Tiger fans, please don’t get your hopes up too high. This is not your season. Neither is next season. Or the season after that. Etc etc etc.

Old School

October 27th, 2010
10:00 am

Boise State is every bit as good as Texas A&M — and they proved it last night.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
10:02 am

And cam doesnt carry the team, he is by far the best player on the team, but scheming to stop him opens up everyone else..plus the added advantage that you still can;t stop cam when you scheme for him

I’d say Missy State did a pretty good job. LSU is very small up front this year by their standards. Bama’s LBs weigh more than their DEs.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

October 27th, 2010
10:02 am

Also, we may not have a great secondary, but we have Nick Fairely, who already concussed two SEC QB’s this year …

blaze

October 27th, 2010
10:02 am

Bingo Tom. I was at a bar last night talking to a typical idiot Tech fan and he was just amazed at how “great” Oregon looks. I tried to explain to him we’ve seen this same Oregon team at least 4 different times the past decade but he didn’t understand. He also didn’t get it that Oregon is deliberately running up the score against weak opponents.

PC Squeezy

October 27th, 2010
10:02 am

PC Easy

Speaking of PC’s, why don’t you buy one of your own instead of using the public library’s.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
10:03 am

Trey, if the SEC is not the best conference then what is?

susan Brown

October 27th, 2010
10:03 am

to the SSIgator person. How many arrest has Florida football players have since Urban Myer was head and how many Georgia arrest has there been since August?

Roger Mattison

October 27th, 2010
10:03 am

If Boise State goes undefeated this year, I consider them the best team in college football.
The only way I can be proven wrong is on the field. Polls are strictly opinions. Strength of schedule is relative. The BCS Championship means nothing if all teams do not have access.

blaze

October 27th, 2010
10:03 am

@ trey,

How is the SEC not the best this year? Because UK, SC, Miss St. and Auburn are up, and UGA, UT, UF and Bama are down? Looks about the same to me, just different players this year, but they are from the same conference, you tard.