Alabama can jump over Boise, but can it jump over Michigan State, Missouri?

Here are some of the BCS questions I’ve gotten since the new standings came out on Sunday. Included are my best answers after talking to a bunch of people smarter than me:

1. If No.1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon win out, will they play in the BCS title game regardless of what everyone else does?  The answer appears to be yes. Oregon is a solid No. 1 in the human polls and that doesn’t figure to change as long as the Ducks keep winning and winning impressively. Oregon is No. 8 in the computer polls but its numbers should improve with games against USC, Cal, and Oregon State down the stretch. Auburn’s a lock to stay No. 1 in the BCS Standings as long as the Tigers win.  They are already No. 1 in the computers and that won’t change with a date looming against No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 26.

2. We have seven undefeated teams left. What are the odds that we will still have four or more when the season is over? It would say the odds are pretty long. First of all, two of the undefeated teams—TCU and Utah—face each other in Salt Lake on Nov. 6. Every team in the top eight has a meaningful road game or two where they could stumble. Here is the list:

1. AUBURN (8-0): at Ole Miss, Oct. 30; at Alabama, Nov. 26

2. OREGON (7-0): at USC, Oct. 30; at California, Nov. 13; at Oregon State, Dec. 4

3. BOISE STATE (6-0): at Nevada, Nov. 26

4. TCU (8-0):  at Utah, Nov. 6

5. MICHIGAN STATE (8-0): at Iowa, Oct. 30; at Penn State, Nov. 27

6. MISSOURI (7-0): at Nebraska, Oct. 30.; at Texas Tech, Nov. 6; at Iowa State, Nov. 20

7. ALABAMA (6-1): at LSU, Nov. 6.

8. UTAH (7-0): at Air Force, Oct. 30.

 

3. If we end the season with only two undefeated teams—Boise State and TCU—will they play for the BCS championship? I doubt it. It’s not impossible for two non-AQ’s (automatic qualifiers) to play for the national title but I have to believe that a one-loss team from one of the power conferences could slip in there and jump either TCU or Boise, especially if that team has played 13 games (instead of 12) and won its conference championship. For example: No. 7 Alabama has the perfect schedule to move up the rankings if a bunch of teams in front of them lose. The Crimson Tide plays No. 12 LSU, No. 21 Mississippi State, and No. 1 Auburn in the month of November. Should Alabama win all those games and then win the SEC championship to finish 12-1, I would expect Alabama to jump over an undefeated Boise or an undefeated TCU for a spot in the BCS title game.

4. So you’re saying that it’s possible that if No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon lose down the stretch, then either No. 3 Boise State or No. 4 TCU could get left out of the  BCS championship game even if they go undefeated? Won’t that make a lot of people mad and create a whole bunch of criticism for the BCS yet again? Won’t that bring about cries for Congressional investigations and speeches from politicians (in Idaho and Texas) about how awful the BCS is?

You betcha.

Won’t that FINALLY blow up the BCS?

Nope. Got three years left on the contract.

5. Okay, so a 12-1 Alabama can jump over an undefeated Boise or TCU. Could a 12-1 Alabama jump over an undefeated Michigan State or an undefeated Missouri into the BCS championship game?

Okay, now you’re getting greedy. The answer is probably not. According to Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com, a one-loss team from one of the six original BCS conferences has never jumped over an undefeated team from another BCS conference to play in the championship game. The SEC folks may argue that their one-loss team is more deserving, given the fact that their conference has won four straight national championships. But an undefeated Big Ten champion or an undefeated Big 12 champion is going to get an edge over a one-loss SEC champion when it comes down to the final human polls.

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652 comments Add your comment

Ramma Bama

October 27th, 2010
8:46 am

No need to worry about auburn—Bama’s going to beat them like a rented mule on Nov 26—-AU’s overrated and the Tide D will shut down Cam Newton—mark it down. Bama 29 AU 16

jumbeauxtiger

October 27th, 2010
8:47 am

The same can be said for the PAC 10.

J Clay

October 27th, 2010
8:47 am

SSIgator – the Gators have so much class they have let Chris Rainey, confirmed “death threater” back on the team…Brilliant!

shane

October 27th, 2010
8:49 am

Thanks Realistic for reminding me why I hate Auburn. Your team is having a great year. But you can’t enjoy it without bringing up your Bama Envy. Sad really.

Jim

October 27th, 2010
8:49 am

“bama is irrelevant”…jealous much? Defending national champion, best Vegas odds (current) to play in the BCS title game, 33-3 over the last 36 games….two time defending SEC West champion, defending SEC champion….yeah, irrelevant is what I would say to…if I were from AU….good one.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
8:50 am

My answers:

1) Obviously yes, but that won’t happen
2) I’ll be surprised if one of Mizzou or MSU win out, let alone both. I say BSU, TCU, and Oregon will stay unbeaten.
3) No way.
4) Yes they will get left out and should.
5) No way. Luckily there’s a decent chance that both lose.

SimpleDawg

October 27th, 2010
8:50 am

If Bama runs the table and wins the SEC Championship, then they will be regarded as the best team in the country…..no matter what the polls say.

TCU and Boise State have the easiest path to remaining undefeated.

Missouri and Michigan State really only have 1 team each that should threaten their unbeaten string.

Auburn and Oregon have the most difficult path to an undefeated regular season.

Auburn has the most difficult path of all of the undefeated teams…..if they win out, including the SEC championship game, then we should crown them Champ and offer up the next best team for slaughter. I don’t think they will win out, but if they do……

Boise State has a good team, no doubt, but without being challenged more than once or twice per season, they don’t suffer the injuries and mental stress as do other top teams in major conferences. It’s just a fact.

Oh, and how I hate that fugly blue field.

Roll Dawgs

October 27th, 2010
8:51 am

Ogilvey

October 27th, 2010
8:51 am

Some how, some way, Alabama will make it into the BCS championship game.

MURPHY

October 27th, 2010
8:52 am

jumbeauxtiger,

Nothing personal,or trying to discredit LSU,I just see the signs of Bama geeting back on a roll.I see them really getting it together with a week off. They will get back to the fearsome physical play from last year towards the end of the season.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
8:52 am

If Aubie goes into BDS and wins then yes, they can reasonably be called number one. I really don’t see that happening though.

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
8:52 am

jumbeauxtiger

Not sure what we’ll see in Baton Rouge. Bama’s passing game is looking better. Of course they haven’t played Peterson and friends yet. The P Peterson and J Jones knife fight will be one of the best matchups of the season.

Also not sure that it matters what offense Cam Newton runs. Jim Donnan said that Newton would make any OC look good….whether they’re running the Spread, the Wishbone, the Winged-T, or the Model T

RxDawg

October 27th, 2010
8:52 am

“3. BOISE STATE (6-0): at Nevada, Nov. 26″

LAUGH AT LOUD

It’s a joke and a tavesty Boise St is ranked that high.

Zero Tolerance

October 27th, 2010
8:53 am

For non starters. Auburn has been lucky, but they have also gotten better with each game. I have never seen anyone dominate a football game like Newton. Walker and Jackson would be close, but they didn’t throw the ball, and Newton seems as fresh at the end of a game as he was at the beginning. I think that Auburn will blow UGA off the field, but Bama will be a coin toss. Auburn’s defense has some holes, but it seems to rise to the occasion.

RxDawg

October 27th, 2010
8:53 am

Dawgs4Lyfe!

October 27th, 2010
8:53 am

I don’t see where my Dawgs fit into this?? If we win the SEC East like we should, then we should be playing for the NC as well. No doubt about it.

Not a Tech or UGA Fan.....

October 27th, 2010
8:56 am

Of all the teams Oregon is the one I feel has the most to still prove. Yes they have scored a lot of points but look at not just their strength of schedule so far but look at their non-conf opponent’s record, 4 and 17. I know this won’t be taken very well by the kool-aid drinkers here but a one loss SEC team is no more deserving than a one loss team from the Big 12 or Big 10 and probably the Pac 10 this year. This is a down year in the SEC and you can call it parity or mediocrity in the SEC east or whatever but they are just not head and shoulders above the rest of college football like they were the last 2 years. Should a undefeated Boise St or TCU go to the Championship game ahead of a one loss SEC team, you betcha ya. And while I’m at it, all the SEC west teams that schedule pansy cream puff teams in November (Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU) you should have BCS points taken away from them just for that. At least the Big 3 in the SEC east have ACC rivalry teams scheduled for the last game of the year.

J Clay

October 27th, 2010
8:56 am

Current odds to win BCS title as of this morning from site I use:

Bama +225
Boise St +225
Oregon +180
Auburn +350
Mizzou +2000
Mich St +2000
TCU +700
Utah +7500
Nebraska +3000
FSU +7500
Oklahoma +10000
Ohio St +5000

If you’re looking for value – Michigan St and Utah look to be the value picks – granted I don’t think either will make it or win if they do but interesting to look at

canwesail

October 27th, 2010
8:56 am

I am not suggesting at all it will happen, as stated earlier a lot of football left to be played. Should Missouri win out they will play for a National Championship

1stString

October 27th, 2010
8:58 am

dooleytheVol – Auburn’s defense may be average but if they met the Ducks the final score won’t be “ugly.” It will be 65 – 64 one way or the other.

RxDawg

October 27th, 2010
8:58 am

Also, just so you know, our current system is made to be corrupted. Do you think the SEC and every single other major conference don’t realize what kind of money they miss out on if they don’t have a couple of realy high ranked teams for the BCS bowls? One for the championship, and one for an at large. If a conference only gets one team in, that’s a lot of missed out on money. What I’m getting at is it actualy creates motivation for the SEC to want to keep it’s top few teams undefeated. I hope it’s not the case, but the lay out is there. Look at some of the referee calls some undefeated teams got last year. Conspiracy? I’d like to think not, but I’m not naive.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
8:59 am

If we don’t play better on D and don’t have some balance on offense, both big ifs, it could get ugly. jumbotiger

Actually I think LSU matches up better with Bama’s offense than Aubie’s. Cam would rather run than throw, which limits the impact of Peterson, who is easily LSU’s best player. We need to be able to throw to set up the run. If Peterson can take away Julio for the most part (I’m sure Julio will get some catches) one-on-one then LSU will be able to concentrate on the run game and force Marquis Maze, Dareus Hanks, Preston Dial, and the screen game to beat them. That should limit Bama’s points. Now LSU’s offense vs. Bama’s D is another story. As you said, it will be tough to get points if they’re one dimensional, especially since Bama’s main weakness has been passing D and LSU is ranked 110th in passing yards. I’ll say Bama gets one TD and five FGs to win 22-10.

J Clay

October 27th, 2010
9:04 am

“Games of Year” lines – these go down every Saturday and are updated based on happenings…But currently, from same site:

Alabama -7 over LSU
Gators -3 over South Carolina
South Caroline -3 over Arkansas
Alabama -8 over Auburn
Georgia -9 over Georgia Tech
FSU -4 over Florida
Arkansas -6 over LSU

So if you feel as confident as some of the comments and not worried about injuries you can make a play on these now

jerry

October 27th, 2010
9:05 am

ole miss can beat auburn. houston nutt has a knack for beating top 10 teams and getting his teams ready to play. 2003: 38-28 win over #5 Texas, 2006: 27-10 win over #2 Auburn, 2007: 50-48 win over #1 LSU. All games were played on the road. Ole Miss has them at home and the right reverend houston nutt needs this win to save his butt.

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:07 am

@ Not a Tech or UGA Fan…..

agree with most of your points…..except one If you look at each team in the SEC, their strength-of-schedules are pretty close. I’d hazard a guess that over a five, or six season span they’d be virtually identical. So if you accept that premise then why should the sequence of scheduling penalize some teams, and not others. That is; if two teams play two cream-puffs each, and if team A plays them at the beginning of the year, and team B plays them at the end, then who has the edge? I’m not sure there is an edge.

MURPHY

October 27th, 2010
9:09 am

I say Tenn upsets S.Carolina. Dooley gets his first SEC win

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:09 am

canwesail

I think an undefeated Mizzou should play for the NC.

Driving Ms Dooley

October 27th, 2010
9:12 am

I think Alabama is like the Germans. Cam Newton is Rommel. The reason Alabama won’t win out is because Cam, I mean Rommel, won’t answer when Bama calls…..
Now Boise State…They’re like Holland. Nobody really cares about them except when its time to each chocolate.
USC is like the Japenese….they just won’t go away evern after we’ve dropped …..

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:13 am

Auburn sucks.

Alabama is awesome.

Cam Newton sucks.

Mark Ingram is awesome.

8-0 is not good.

7-1 is better.

See what I mean, folks?

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:14 am

Auburn has been the underdog in 5 games this year. LSU, Arkansas, Miss State, USC and Clemson were all picked to beat Auburn.

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:15 am

And here is the hypocracy of the last BCS poll.

If everyone agrees that some teams having to play conference championship games, while others do not, is not fair. And it really isn’t.

The solution is: cutoff the BCS voting after the regular season

That won’t happen (this is the hyporacy part) because of money. Upsets in the conference championship games could hugely change the attractiveness of the BSC bowl matchups, and the power brokers are not willing to roll those dice

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:16 am

“Auburn has been lucky”

Another fine example of Bama logic. Auburn is never good, only lucky. Alabama, even though they’ve gotten lucky quite a few times over this season and last, are just amazingly awesome.

What a joke some bama fans are.

Zebra

October 27th, 2010
9:16 am

Spurrier showed how to beat the overranked Tide. Shut down the run and let that Swiss Cheese Oline try to keep Average boy upright at qb. People talk about how he was undefeated for so long but he only started 1 year in hs and 1 year in college.

Big whoop

Alabama loses 2 more and goes to the Outback.

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:17 am

Did anyone watch the Boise game last night? I mean man, they are super awesome! No one in the country could beat up on Louisiana Tech as badly as Boise. That trick play to run up the scoreboard was an instant classic. (SARCASM)

Tomsjeep88

October 27th, 2010
9:18 am

Not a chance Auburn wins out with the 101st-ranked passing defense. No way.

Aiken Chicken

October 27th, 2010
9:18 am

They should just take the winner of the SEC and let them play the next best team for the national title. Until someone beats them, the SEC champ should be the natl champ. In fact, maybe the SEC championship game should decide the natl championship

MURPHY

October 27th, 2010
9:19 am

Luck plays into every game on any given Sat. Every team is lucky at one point during the season.

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:19 am

Driving Ms Dooley

those are all good points. I especailly liked the chocolate analogy.

If you read a lot of these posts over the course of a season, you’d think Mark Richt is a lot like George Patton – paralyzed from the neck down.

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:20 am

“In fact, maybe the SEC championship game should decide the natl championship

That would look really bad if a 4 or 5 loss Georgia team beat an Alabama or Auburn team.

Sean

October 27th, 2010
9:21 am

What happens when Auburn loses this Saturday? Alabama doesn’t automatically get to jump teams because Mr. SEC said so.

Who has Alabama beaten, anyway? Was it the 4-3 Penn State victory that was so impressive? Or the 4-3 Florida team? Give me a break.

http://thebubblescreen.blogspot.com/2010/10/big-xii-north-iowas-pasadena-dreams-and.html

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
9:22 am

J Clay, I love college football but I don’t bet on it (or anything else for that matter). It’s fun to debate but I ain’t risking money on the performance of 20 -year-olds.

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:22 am

@ Bama Logic

not only would it look bad, it would feel worse

Driving Ms Dooley

October 27th, 2010
9:24 am

I agree with you 3rdn8. He also got fired (almost) and end up in the Pacific theater for kind of a rebirth.

I just don’t know who Churchhill is….Maybe Saban? And we all know who Hitler is….Gotta be the Golden Boy from USC….so that makes USC the germans….ok now its making sense because they will have that dumb look in their eyes when Oregon is running it up on them this Saturday.

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:25 am

“What happens when Auburn loses this Saturday?”

Wasn’t Auburn supposed to lose weeks and weeks ago?

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
9:25 am

As a Falcon fan I have to nominate Bobby Petrino for the Hitler role.

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:26 am

“As a Falcon fan I have to nominate Bobby Petrino for the Hitler role.”

How many Jews did he kill?

3rdn8

October 27th, 2010
9:27 am

Sean

you’re correct about Bama’s schedule. It turned out to be much softer than it looked on paper in the pre-season. I don’t know how you plan for PSU, UF, and UT having bad seasons (schedules are made about 5 years in advance) but that is what happened. I aslo think it will play a big factor if Bama is unable to jump some of the undefeated teams in front of them.

Bama Logic

October 27th, 2010
9:27 am

BAMA dude

I would nominate you for the role of Pol Pot.

jumbeauxtiger

October 27th, 2010
9:27 am

Bama dude, I do think we match up better with you guys on D than Auburn. You are right about our offense. my biggest worry is your DL. It will be a problem for us as our O line is at best average.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
9:27 am

Sean, Bama beating Florida the way they did was impressive. And I look for Aubie to be undefeated until the day after Thanksgiving.