Alabama can jump over Boise, but can it jump over Michigan State, Missouri?

Here are some of the BCS questions I’ve gotten since the new standings came out on Sunday. Included are my best answers after talking to a bunch of people smarter than me:

1. If No.1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon win out, will they play in the BCS title game regardless of what everyone else does?  The answer appears to be yes. Oregon is a solid No. 1 in the human polls and that doesn’t figure to change as long as the Ducks keep winning and winning impressively. Oregon is No. 8 in the computer polls but its numbers should improve with games against USC, Cal, and Oregon State down the stretch. Auburn’s a lock to stay No. 1 in the BCS Standings as long as the Tigers win.  They are already No. 1 in the computers and that won’t change with a date looming against No. 7 Alabama on Nov. 26.

2. We have seven undefeated teams left. What are the odds that we will still have four or more when the season is over? It would say the odds are pretty long. First of all, two of the undefeated teams—TCU and Utah—face each other in Salt Lake on Nov. 6. Every team in the top eight has a meaningful road game or two where they could stumble. Here is the list:

1. AUBURN (8-0): at Ole Miss, Oct. 30; at Alabama, Nov. 26

2. OREGON (7-0): at USC, Oct. 30; at California, Nov. 13; at Oregon State, Dec. 4

3. BOISE STATE (6-0): at Nevada, Nov. 26

4. TCU (8-0):  at Utah, Nov. 6

5. MICHIGAN STATE (8-0): at Iowa, Oct. 30; at Penn State, Nov. 27

6. MISSOURI (7-0): at Nebraska, Oct. 30.; at Texas Tech, Nov. 6; at Iowa State, Nov. 20

7. ALABAMA (6-1): at LSU, Nov. 6.

8. UTAH (7-0): at Air Force, Oct. 30.

 

3. If we end the season with only two undefeated teams—Boise State and TCU—will they play for the BCS championship? I doubt it. It’s not impossible for two non-AQ’s (automatic qualifiers) to play for the national title but I have to believe that a one-loss team from one of the power conferences could slip in there and jump either TCU or Boise, especially if that team has played 13 games (instead of 12) and won its conference championship. For example: No. 7 Alabama has the perfect schedule to move up the rankings if a bunch of teams in front of them lose. The Crimson Tide plays No. 12 LSU, No. 21 Mississippi State, and No. 1 Auburn in the month of November. Should Alabama win all those games and then win the SEC championship to finish 12-1, I would expect Alabama to jump over an undefeated Boise or an undefeated TCU for a spot in the BCS title game.

4. So you’re saying that it’s possible that if No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon lose down the stretch, then either No. 3 Boise State or No. 4 TCU could get left out of the  BCS championship game even if they go undefeated? Won’t that make a lot of people mad and create a whole bunch of criticism for the BCS yet again? Won’t that bring about cries for Congressional investigations and speeches from politicians (in Idaho and Texas) about how awful the BCS is?

You betcha.

Won’t that FINALLY blow up the BCS?

Nope. Got three years left on the contract.

5. Okay, so a 12-1 Alabama can jump over an undefeated Boise or TCU. Could a 12-1 Alabama jump over an undefeated Michigan State or an undefeated Missouri into the BCS championship game?

Okay, now you’re getting greedy. The answer is probably not. According to Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com, a one-loss team from one of the six original BCS conferences has never jumped over an undefeated team from another BCS conference to play in the championship game. The SEC folks may argue that their one-loss team is more deserving, given the fact that their conference has won four straight national championships. But an undefeated Big Ten champion or an undefeated Big 12 champion is going to get an edge over a one-loss SEC champion when it comes down to the final human polls.

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652 comments Add your comment

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
3:20 pm

the deal, of course i’m not saying that. I’m actually one who thinks recruiting ratings are a bit of a sham. Boise St has 5-6 players expected to go in the next NFL draft, none of which were highly recruited. Boise St has great players and great coaches and they play very well as a team. Thats why they do so well. If recruiting rankings were all that mattered then Florida would play USC for the title every year. I’m guessing they probably wont this year though.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
3:20 pm

“When is the last time we actually lost a game at home?”

Louisiana Monroe 2007

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
3:20 pm

FYI: Auburn is in Alabama. Just trying to educate the people who have no idea where Auburn is.

Bama Rules

October 27th, 2010
3:21 pm

Florida also took your clowns to your outhouse for a beat down

When has Auburn beat Florida? Its been years since you guys been to atlanta. 2003 was a long time ago loser

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
3:21 pm

“When has Auburn beat Florida?”

2006 and 2007, dumb @ss.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
3:22 pm

“Its been years since you guys been to atlanta. 2003 was a long time ago loser”

2004, moron.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
3:22 pm

Bama Rules

October 27th, 2010
3:21 pm
Florida also took your clowns to your outhouse for a beat down

When has Auburn beat Florida? Its been years since you guys been to atlanta. 2003 was a long time ago loser

Why do this? Leave it alone. It’ll get tired of talking to itself eventually.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
3:23 pm

“Why do this? Leave it alone. It’ll get tired of talking to itself eventually.”

Pot meet kettle

Bama Rules

October 27th, 2010
3:24 pm

2004, moron

That shows you I don’t care about auburn loser, Bama rules, the tigers will always be second best in the state

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
3:25 pm

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
3:20 pm
the deal, of course i’m not saying that. I’m actually one who thinks recruiting ratings are a bit of a sham. Boise St has 5-6 players expected to go in the next NFL draft, none of which were highly recruited.

Recruiting rankings are silly because most of the people doing the ranking know nothing about scouting. That said, Boise will never be able to recruit the depth needed to sustain success until they get into a bigger conference.

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
3:26 pm

“That shows you I don’t care about auburn loser’

No, it shows just how completely and utterly stupid you really are.

Bama Rules

October 27th, 2010
3:27 pm

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
3:29 pm

“wow”

Is about all you can come up. Sucks to be you, Forrest.

Get Real

October 27th, 2010
3:29 pm

@ChaneyJM

I would argue that Michigan State should be ranked above Boise, TCU and Utah. At least they play a legitimate schedule.

Bama Rules

October 27th, 2010
3:30 pm

Common sense prevails has the IQ of an empty beer can. His head is nothing but air

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
3:31 pm

“Common sense prevails has the IQ of an empty beer can. His head is nothing but air”

Comeback fail, Forrest. Trying to use my insults only makes you look even more pathetic. Please quit while you’re behind.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
3:31 pm

Bama Rules Common Sense has proved he doesn’t have seen at all so leave the dumb moron to argue wit himself

the deal

October 27th, 2010
3:32 pm

You really do not get it, do you GTBob? Or do you really get it and that’s why you ignored my Dan Hawkins question? At Boise Hawkins was 53-11 in 5 seasons. At Colorado (not including this season) he is 16-35. Now what on EARTH could be the reason for the complete 180???

Common sense prevails

October 27th, 2010
3:33 pm

“Bama Rules Common Sense has proved he doesn’t have seen at all so leave the dumb moron to argue wit himself”

Talk about poor grammar. PC Easy must have fallen off the short bus.

Roll Tide, Roll!!!!

October 27th, 2010
3:34 pm

I wish I cud stay on hear and make fun of you aburners all day, but sum of us got more inportent things to do. We are getting us our first family toilet so I got to go pick it up. Have fun, losers

Dan Mullen and the #21 ranked bulldogs

October 27th, 2010
3:34 pm

Hopefully we can have a good game with bama and move up the polls and have a good bowl game

hahahahaha!!!!

October 27th, 2010
3:36 pm

@ the deal,

Gee….that’s a toughie. What could possibly cause a 53-11 coach to suddenly be 16-35 in a difference conference with better players. Hmmm…..this is hard…..hmm…….

The truth

October 27th, 2010
3:38 pm

Auburn Sucks!! and get off our blog losers

5IML

October 27th, 2010
3:42 pm

BAMA dude,

I’ve been in meetings all day and, from a glance at the posts, that’s a good thing.

Get Real

October 27th, 2010
3:46 pm

Hard to discuss football while a red-headed stepchild with ADD and 100 names is throwing a tantrum here. Maybe it will wind down and take a nap later. I’ll check back.

dman

October 27th, 2010
3:47 pm

Oregon going down to USC, TCU going down to Utah,Mich St. going down to Iowa, Bama wins out defeats Auburn gets revenge againt South Car. Bama then wips Boisie State like the JV they really are or is it Pop Warner.
Alabama back to back BCS Champs Bama 42 Boise 16

George Wallace was a Bama fan

October 27th, 2010
3:47 pm

BAMA SUCKS!!!!! Get off our blog Bama losers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nurse Rachet

October 27th, 2010
3:53 pm

“I can’t believe I gave my panties to a geek.”

It's a Tech Nation

October 27th, 2010
3:53 pm

GT runs the table and backs into the national title game!!!

Tom

October 27th, 2010
3:54 pm

16 Candles rocks!!!

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
3:56 pm

the deal, I know exactly how you are twisting it around, and thats fine, twist it in whatever way you think makes you feel smarter. Colorado has never recruited well and very rarely has played well. There is no reason to think that the talent at Colorado is better then the talent at Boise St or that the teams are comparable. There is also no reason to think that Hawkins is a better coach then Peterson. How many undefeated seasons did Hawkins have? What was his record his final year? How many BCS games did he lead Boise St to?

Nurse Rachet

October 27th, 2010
3:57 pm

“When I first saw you, I thought you were handsome. Then, of course, you spoke.”

WTF??

October 27th, 2010
4:00 pm

It’s a Tech Nation

October 27th, 2010
3:53 pm
GT runs the table and backs into the national title game!!!

If you are not a true Tech fan then don’t talk about Tech nation

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
4:09 pm

5IML

October 27th, 2010
3:42 pm
BAMA dude,

I’ve been in meetings all day and, from a glance at the posts, that’s a good thing.

Yeah, the handle changer has been out in full force today. Somebody must have fed him too much sugar.

Nurse Rachet

October 27th, 2010
4:11 pm

“Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here. This is the War Room!”

George Wallace was a Bama fan

October 27th, 2010
4:15 pm

When Bama goes back on probation, I wonder what the bama fans will do besides get their sisters pregnant.

the deal

October 27th, 2010
4:16 pm

Twisting? What exactly am I “twisting?” I simply stated facts and asked you a question, twice now, that you are clearly not comfortable with answering. Why is that? Colorado has never played or recruited well? That’s funny, because most people thought they were the real national champion in 1990, which any sensible, non-koolaid drinking Tech fan would agree with. And I assure you, Colorado has put more players into the NFL going back to when Boise began their program to now. And just so you know, the better talent comment was in regard to his competition he is now facing on a weekly basis. Yet another point I am right about.

It's a Tech Nation

October 27th, 2010
4:16 pm

I am more of a Tech fan than you can every dream of!!!! On top of being an alumni, so sit on it and rotate!!!!!

Tech can go all the way!!!

scott

October 27th, 2010
4:21 pm

and also GTbob, Petersen is a Hawkins disciple. He came with Hawkins to Boise and was his OC for Hawkins entire tenure at Boise. Hawkins simply gave Petersen the keys to his car.

PC Easy

October 27th, 2010
4:27 pm

Hey Common Sense: I never said this. Obviously this from either an Auburn fan or a Boise St fan.

“Bama Rules Common Sense has proved he doesn’t have seen at all so leave the dumb moron to argue wit himself”

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
4:29 pm

PC Easy, it was probably him impersonating you so he could talk to himself some more. He blows up the blog with nonsense constantly- maybe they’ll ban him finally. I have reported several comments of his the past few days.

Bama Rules

October 27th, 2010
4:31 pm

Auburn Fans are immature morons

Vortex

October 27th, 2010
4:32 pm

yeah gtbob, pretty sure you lost this one. you are dodging the question that will obviously expose you for what you are. obviously hawkins is doing horrible at UC because he’s in a real conference now playing real opponents. End of story.

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
4:33 pm

Bama dude you still hanging around. Looks you got a supporter in Rules. He kinda reminds me of the more typical Bama fan I was talking about earlier today. He should learn to ignore the trolls and not let them get under his skin.

Vortex

October 27th, 2010
4:33 pm

scott – good points

curious Tech freshman

October 27th, 2010
4:33 pm

Hey guys, what’s up? Anything fun happening tonight?

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
4:34 pm

the deal, when you have to pull up records for old coaches that have been gone for 4 years, who have moved on to other struggling programs to try and discredit a team you are doing major twisting. Or spinning, or however you want to phrase it. Do you have anything to say about this years Boise St team? Can you give me a good reason why they are worse then Colorado this year which is what you are inferring?

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
4:35 pm

I already knew that scott, check Boise’s record and stats since Petersen took over.

BAMA dude

October 27th, 2010
4:35 pm

Mobile Dawg

October 27th, 2010
4:33 pm
Bama dude you still hanging around. Looks you got a supporter in Rules. He kinda reminds me of the more typical Bama fan I was talking about earlier today. He should learn to ignore the trolls and not let them get under his skin.

Unfortunately my ignoring the troll seems to be what got him riled up the most. He must have referenced me 30 times today and called me several names. I ignored him every time.

GTBob

October 27th, 2010
4:35 pm

Really Vortex, so you are saying that Boise is worse then Colorado?