Georgia can beat Gators, lose to Auburn, and still win SEC East

 I  put this list together yesterday as sort of a sanity check of what could happen in the whacky SEC East as we move into the stretch drive. It doesn’t include every scenario, such as Kentucky winning its last three conference games with Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee to finish 4-4. If that happens, I will gladly stand corrected.

Here are SOME possibilities, not all, of what could happen to determine a champion in the SEC East race.  The most fascinating one is that if Georgia beats Florida, the Bulldogs could still lose to Auburn and go to the SEC championship game in Atlanta. In that respect, the game in Jacksonville is huge to both teams.

Have fun.

First, the teams:

SOUTH CAROLINA (3-2 SEC)

Wins: Georgia, Alabama, Vanderbilt

Losses: Auburn, Kentucky

Games left: vs. Tennessee (Saturday), vs. Arkansas (Nov. 6), at Florida (Nov. 13)

 

FLORIDA (2-3)

Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky

Losses: Alabama, LSU, Miss. State

Games left: Georgia (Jacksonville, Saturday), at Vanderbilt (Nov. 6), vs. South Carolina Nov. 13.

 

GEORGIA (3-3)

Wins: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Losses: South Carolina, Arkansas, Miss. State

Games left: Florida (Jacksonville, Saturday), at Auburn (Nov. 13).

 

THE SCENARIOS

1. South Carolina controls its own destiny. If the Gamecocks beat Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida they win the SEC East at 6-2.

2. Florida controls its own destiny. If the Gators beat Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina they will be 5-3 in the conference. Florida would win the tiebreaker with South Carolina if both are 5-3 and Georgia would be 4-4 at best.

3. Georgia doesn’t control its destiny because it lost to South Carolina on Sept. 11. But if it beats Florida and Auburn, and South Carolina loses two of its last three conference games, Georgia will win the Division. Georgia will be 5-3 while South Carolina and Florida will be 4-4 at best.

4. If Georgia beats Florida and South Carolina loses two of its last three conference games, Georgia will win the division whether or not it beats Auburn on Nov. 13. Here’s how:

If Georgia beats Florida but loses to Auburn, Georgia will be 4-4 in the SEC but 4-1 in the Eastern Division (loss to South Carolina).

If Florida loses to Georgia but beats Vanderbilt and South Carolina, it will be 4-4 in the conference but also 4-1 in the Division (Loss to Georgia).

If South Carolina drops two of its last three conference games and one of those losses is to Florida it will be 4-4 in the conference but no better than 3-2 in the division (Losses to Kentucky and Florida).

South Carolina is thus eliminated from the three-way tie at 4-4. Georgia wins the division on the head to head win over Florida.

 That should keep us all busy for a while.

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649 comments Add your comment

jtdawg

October 26th, 2010
12:47 pm

STOP!

Just win the next game…. worry about Saturday and Saturday only… the rest will take care of itself regardless of the outcome.

JB

October 26th, 2010
12:47 pm

that’s funny 3rdn8

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
12:47 pm

To no one in particular, Alabama is 11th nationally in yards gained, 31st in yards allowed for a 21 average ranking. As a point of reference Auburn is 4th and 77th respectively, for a 40.5 average ranking. Auburn has gained 46 yards per game more but allowed 61 more per game. In terms of point differential Bama is at +174(274-100) overall, +59(140-81) in SEC play. Aubie is +121(309-188) overall, +43(178-135) in SEC play. Both teams have played 8 games (5 SEC)and, even with a loss, Bama has been better overall with an average SEC score of 28-16 vs. 36-27 for Aubie. Considering that Aubie has played its three toughest SEC foes to date at home, these stats are the reason many folks believe Bama to be the better squad. Will be fun to see.

JB

October 26th, 2010
12:49 pm

Meyer has flopped with this team of 5 star all americans…….. Big Gator talk, three defeats, wow.

5150 P.O.A.D

October 26th, 2010
12:50 pm

the SEC west has 5 teams that are 5-2 or better and the SEC east has 1 team at 5-2. Yes, USC beat Bama, but as we all know anything can happen on any given Saturday. Bama has lost 1 game since Jan. 3 2009. Bama is 21-1 since that Date. Bama is a top 4 team this year even with a loss. It is highly unlikely for a team to go Undefeated 2 years in a row in the SEC. If BAMA wins the SEC they Sould Play fo the MNC No Matter how many teams are Undefeated.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
12:51 pm

5150 P.O.A.D., that’s exactly why I consider the 18 consecutive regular season SEC wins to be the greatest accomplishment. Doesn’t happen.

Mobile Dawg

October 26th, 2010
12:51 pm

how2fish, I missed you at the FloraBama during Bama/Gator week. The late game time got me. Going fishing Saturday, then to the FloraBama and catch some of the game. Come on down, I need some help cheering on those Dawgs.

Mobile Dawg

October 26th, 2010
12:53 pm

So you’re a Bama fan? Don’t forget about the other team in the state, they gave you all you could handle last year. This year they’re better.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
12:53 pm

Alphare, GMac didn’t play very well until Tennesee. The USCe stats look great for him but the sacks were largely due to him holding on too long. He needs to show up like he did against Florida last year.

edumacated

October 26th, 2010
12:53 pm

I don’t know if I buy into Florida having a psychological edge, even though Richt has even alluded to that ( hence the endzone dance). No one pays attention to that crap once they are on the field and get into some contact. I just think that over the last 20 years those Gayturds have out played and outcoached the Dawgs. Oh well…. no use crying about it. It’s time to turn it around. No more excuses. Go Dogs!

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
12:57 pm

edumacated

October 26th, 2010
12:53 pm
I don’t know if I buy into Florida having a psychological edge, even though Richt has even alluded to that ( hence the endzone dance).

Having two weeks to rest and prepare for UGA certainly gives them an edge.

JB

October 26th, 2010
12:58 pm

Headline in the Gainesville Sun paper ought to read: MEYER EXPOSED !

GTJeff

October 26th, 2010
12:58 pm

SEC West > ACC > SEC (L)East

Alphare

October 26th, 2010
1:01 pm

Yeah, GMac has mid-season crisis (2 years in a row now?) like some of my friends having mid-age crisis.

Hopefully he can get thru this.

how2fish

October 26th, 2010
1:01 pm

Mobile Dawg I’d love to but have to be in town this weekend..sorry I missed you we got into the fish and didn’t get to the dock till dark by the time we had cleaned boat and fish the game had started. Good luck to you and the Dawgs!

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
1:01 pm

GTJeff

October 26th, 2010
12:58 pm
SEC West > ACC > SEC (L)East

Since I know this is really what you were referencing,

UGA >>>>>>> GT

That game is gonna get ugly imo.

edumacated

October 26th, 2010
1:03 pm

BAMA dude,

Having a week off does give them an edge, I just don’t agree with this “they are in our heads” crap. This isn’t golf, and these guys aren’t Tiger Woods. It’s 11 on 11 football, and there isn’t a whole lot of cerebral activity going on during the game. It’s all read and reaction, due to coaching.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
1:04 pm

edumacated, I agree with that. Both teams’ coaching looks suspect this year, I think.

Spurrier

October 26th, 2010
1:06 pm

The Pups are back to their usual chest thumping delusions. Most arrogant fanbase in the country. I hate the dawgs with a passion, and that makes my relationship very hard with my girlfriend. The only title the dawgs get this year is for the most fans getting their asses kicked at opposing teams stadiums. They are always a national title contender there. This is just the beginning for South Carolina. You think we are dangerous this year, it is only gonna get better. We beat UT, Arky, and UF game ovah. Maybe Murray can be a model or something. Marcus Lattimore was real impressed with the 12th ranked rushing defense in the land.

JB

October 26th, 2010
1:06 pm

Where is the Columnist in the Gainesville paper writing a story about Meyer under achieving.
Last 5 years, top 5 or better recruiting classes, 2 national titles to losing three in a row. Scoring 7 points on Miss St, At home, with that highly productive, all world spread offense ! Who’s asking questions…….?????? Did he forget how to coach? Was the Summer too hot this year? Has his health and ” new approach to life” taken a toll on the team? Did Rainey getting in trouble with the law mess the team up…..You can’t tell me 15-18 five star starters got beat at home by Miss St because of the MOON ????? Who looking into to this…..Schultz, go get’em !!!!!!

5150 P.O.A.D

October 26th, 2010
1:07 pm

Mobile Dawg
I am a Tech fan. I just know what BAMA has accomplished over the last 2 years.
Since Jan 3 2009
Auburn…….16-5
Oregon…….17-3
Boise St….20-0
TCU……….20-1
Missouri….14-7
Utah………17-3
Bama…….21-1
Bama’s schedule is so much harder than Boise St and TCU for damn sure.

Mobile Dawg

October 26th, 2010
1:07 pm

Bama’s young on defense but they have great atheletes. What’s missing is one dominating player with intelligence, and Leadership skills. A.K.A. Rolondo….Will someone step up. Auburn’s defense really stepped up IMO against LSU. Field position was a huge LSU advantage….Herbstreet missed that point totally. He really bungled his view of Auburn I thought.

I think if Boise or TCU go to the BCSCG over a one loss SEC Champion the game will suffer from a ratings problem. It would be disastrous for the network and advertisers. I can’t defend a two or more loss Champion though.

SEC Reality

October 26th, 2010
1:07 pm

Florida 42, Georgia 27. That’s reality.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
1:09 pm

Alphare, I think it’s a mindset change for GMac that hopefully happened already. Our defense is not good enough for the offense to just protect the ball like it was last year. We need explosive plays. We don’t want him to be completely careless with the ball but if there’s some risk/reward involved in then so be it. In the USCe game he refused to take a shot downfield even down by a bunch.

It's_been_a_while

October 26th, 2010
1:09 pm

Hey, GatorMan! Get it right! JIMMY CARTER was still in office the last time UGA won a NT. Get your facts together! ha ha ha ha

And will some of you PLEASE stop with the whole …”all you have to do is stop Newton and that’s how you beat Auburn” …. thing. Don’t you think LSU knew that coming in? For that matter, it is not a secret. Everyone knows that. However, SAYING it and DOING it are two different things.

[...] can beat Florida, lose to Auburn, but still win the Eastern Division, writes Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta [...]

Uncle Jesse

October 26th, 2010
1:10 pm

Unlike a lot of you pikers I attended Uga in 1986. So we haven’t beat a ranked team this year! I guess it will have to be Auburn! So, the barners have Cam,the notebook,Newton .So what! It wont be the first time one team or the other knocked the other off. It is almost a SEC tradition!

JB

October 26th, 2010
1:10 pm

Florida sucks this year……………..I know, I know, but it’s just fun typing it………..

how2fish

October 26th, 2010
1:10 pm

Spurrier don’t pull your annual disappearing act and you might be able to talk cr%$ till then screw your visor down tight and coach…you can still win the East but it will take more than pointing to the NC ring and telling us how you did it at UF.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
1:11 pm

Mobile Dawg, good analysis of the Bama defense. Aubie’s D is OK against the run but highly torchable through the air. This is why I can see UGA and AJ being a tough matchup for them, though I expect Aubie to win.

Primanti

October 26th, 2010
1:12 pm

The only title the dawgs get this year is for the most fans getting their asses kicked at opposing teams stadiums.

Don’t forget the Fulmer/Richt Cup.

And the most red panties falling from the sky. ;-)

JB

October 26th, 2010
1:13 pm

Meyer is overrated……Put him at South Carolina and he’s just like Spurrier, a little over a .500 coach…
Hell, Gailey could win with all that talent in Florida……Maybe ya’ll need to fire Meyer and Hire Tebow…………LOL

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
1:13 pm

“Considering that Aubie has played its three toughest SEC foes to date at home, these stats are the reason many folks believe Bama to be the better squad.”

A mediocre Auburn squad, minus Cameron, Dyer, Mccalleb etc, gave Alabama a really hard game last year. If you think it’s going to be a 36-0 blowout you are in for a serious wakeup call.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
1:13 pm

Hell, Gailey could win with all that talent in Florida……Maybe ya’ll need to fire Meyer and Hire Tebow…………LOL

Zook couldn’t.

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
1:14 pm

“Aubie’s D is OK against the run but highly torchable through the air.”

Yeah true enough but Alabama hasn’t played an offense like Auburn.

JB

October 26th, 2010
1:14 pm

Zook NEVER lost three in a row….LOL……………

how2fish

October 26th, 2010
1:15 pm

Primanti really let me know where you saw the Dog fans getting the crap kicked out of them? Stick to football son you’ll last longer. Of course your more than likely a Bug and cowering in your dorm room is the norm..so sad.

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
1:15 pm

Uncle Jesse

Beat Florida and then talk about beating Auburn.

JB

October 26th, 2010
1:16 pm

Florida, fear the index finger……….ok ok….. Next to thumb when you hold up 4 fingers…..Get it, four loses in a row…….

how2fish

October 26th, 2010
1:16 pm

JB

October 26th, 2010
1:14 pm

Zook NEVER lost three in a row….LOL………JB now that had to hurt !!

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
1:17 pm

Yeah true enough but Alabama hasn’t played an offense like Auburn.

The opposite is true as well, save Arky for both.

edumacated

October 26th, 2010
1:18 pm

Spurrier,

Are you seriously on a Dawg forum thumping YOUR chest about your stupid chickens that everyone takes turns beating up on? Yeah, you finally managed to field a decent team for the first time since like what? 1969? Ha Ha. How many winless seasons do you guys have in your history anyway?Heck, most of us SEC fans are still pissed that we ended up with your pitiful excuse for a program in our conference instead of FSU.
I can take some ribbing from Florida, Tenn, Auburn or even GT fans, but SC, forget about it. You guys have a stupid chicken for a mascot, and a stupid theme song ripped off from a sci fi movie. Get real. Win the SEC before you come back on here.

JB

October 26th, 2010
1:18 pm

When does Foley come out with a vote of Confidence? Just asking…..

Spurrier

October 26th, 2010
1:18 pm

How2fish – Beating a dawg fans ass is a tradition here in Columbia. I pick one lucky pup every other year to teach some manners too. Maybe you can be my next victim in 2012.

SadDawg

October 26th, 2010
1:18 pm

Alphare, the best alligator meat is the tail, and is best prepared by slicing strips from the tail, then using a cookie cutter to cut scallop-sized pieces, which are then deep fried.

Delicious.

I hope the Dawgs feast on some gator ass as well Saturday . . .

5150 P.O.A.D

October 26th, 2010
1:19 pm

JB fear the THUMB… You know 5 losses for the Dawgs. LOL

Spurrier

October 26th, 2010
1:19 pm

Edumacated – Your mascot has a life cycle of a fly. I am not concerned about our history. We beat your ass, now move on.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
1:20 pm

Spurrier

October 26th, 2010
1:18 pm
How2fish – Beating a dawg fans ass is a tradition here in Columbia. I pick one lucky pup every other year to teach some manners too. Maybe you can be my next victim in 2012.

Seriously? Take this garbage and go away. Nothing like in internet bad-arse.

JB

October 26th, 2010
1:20 pm

South Carolina: A HUNDRED YEARS OF FOOTBALL MEDIOCRITY…………

JB

October 26th, 2010
1:21 pm

Good one POAD