Georgia can beat Gators, lose to Auburn, and still win SEC East

 I  put this list together yesterday as sort of a sanity check of what could happen in the whacky SEC East as we move into the stretch drive. It doesn’t include every scenario, such as Kentucky winning its last three conference games with Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee to finish 4-4. If that happens, I will gladly stand corrected.

Here are SOME possibilities, not all, of what could happen to determine a champion in the SEC East race.  The most fascinating one is that if Georgia beats Florida, the Bulldogs could still lose to Auburn and go to the SEC championship game in Atlanta. In that respect, the game in Jacksonville is huge to both teams.

Have fun.

First, the teams:

SOUTH CAROLINA (3-2 SEC)

Wins: Georgia, Alabama, Vanderbilt

Losses: Auburn, Kentucky

Games left: vs. Tennessee (Saturday), vs. Arkansas (Nov. 6), at Florida (Nov. 13)

 

FLORIDA (2-3)

Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky

Losses: Alabama, LSU, Miss. State

Games left: Georgia (Jacksonville, Saturday), at Vanderbilt (Nov. 6), vs. South Carolina Nov. 13.

 

GEORGIA (3-3)

Wins: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Losses: South Carolina, Arkansas, Miss. State

Games left: Florida (Jacksonville, Saturday), at Auburn (Nov. 13).

 

THE SCENARIOS

1. South Carolina controls its own destiny. If the Gamecocks beat Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida they win the SEC East at 6-2.

2. Florida controls its own destiny. If the Gators beat Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina they will be 5-3 in the conference. Florida would win the tiebreaker with South Carolina if both are 5-3 and Georgia would be 4-4 at best.

3. Georgia doesn’t control its destiny because it lost to South Carolina on Sept. 11. But if it beats Florida and Auburn, and South Carolina loses two of its last three conference games, Georgia will win the Division. Georgia will be 5-3 while South Carolina and Florida will be 4-4 at best.

4. If Georgia beats Florida and South Carolina loses two of its last three conference games, Georgia will win the division whether or not it beats Auburn on Nov. 13. Here’s how:

If Georgia beats Florida but loses to Auburn, Georgia will be 4-4 in the SEC but 4-1 in the Eastern Division (loss to South Carolina).

If Florida loses to Georgia but beats Vanderbilt and South Carolina, it will be 4-4 in the conference but also 4-1 in the Division (Loss to Georgia).

If South Carolina drops two of its last three conference games and one of those losses is to Florida it will be 4-4 in the conference but no better than 3-2 in the division (Losses to Kentucky and Florida).

South Carolina is thus eliminated from the three-way tie at 4-4. Georgia wins the division on the head to head win over Florida.

 That should keep us all busy for a while.

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649 comments Add your comment

Alphare

October 26th, 2010
11:53 am

Kinda remember somewhere in Louisiana people like to eat gator meat.

Seriously, is grilling gator meat a bulldawg tradition during GA-FL game?

SECWasteManagement

October 26th, 2010
11:53 am

Florida fans and Georgia haters are all the same. 10 Ibs. of s*** in a 5 Ib. bag.

Uncle Jesse

October 26th, 2010
11:54 am

Georgew Wallace was a Tide fan, Wasn”t Forrest Gump also a fan?

MikeP

October 26th, 2010
11:54 am

Quote: by JB “October 26th, 2010
8:45 am

Even if we don’t beat AU, I don’t think they can beat Bama…Control Newton, Beat Auburn, And Bama has a good of chance as anyone. They are weak at passing, and Saban will game plan to shut the big guy down. IMO”

Newton is weak at passing? I suppose that’s why he is the third rated passer in the entire NCAA this week.

As for Saban having a plan: Ellis Johnson, South Carolina’s defensive guru was going to have a plan to shut Newton down. Auburn racked up 485 yards. John Chavis, LSU’s defensive guru was going to shut Newton down. Auburn racked up over 500 yards. Each of those teams was leading the SEC in total defense before they played Auburn. Saban can plan all he wants to, it won’t help.

Here’s a thought about plans: When some writer told Mike Tyson that such-and-such a boxer “had a plan to beat him”, Tyson replied: “They all have as plan until I hit ‘em”. Everybody has a plan to stop Auburn. The plans look great until Auburn hits ‘em.

UGA VII

October 26th, 2010
11:55 am

Dawgs lose to Florida, Auburn.

Should beat Tech and Idaho State.

5-7 with all 5 star players.

Another great year.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
11:55 am

Alphare

October 26th, 2010
11:53 am
Kinda remember somewhere in Louisiana people like to eat gator meat.

Seriously, is grilling gator meat a bulldawg tradition during GA-FL game?

I don’t even live in the south any more and there are a couple of bar-restaurants around me that offer breaded “gator bites”. Don’t know if it’s tradition or not but I haven’t found them to be all that tasty.

Athens, Georgia

October 26th, 2010
11:58 am

Tony,
As far as teams tied up with the same SEC record.
I always thought the head to head games were the first tie-breaker instead of division record.
Thanks for clearing that up, that’s a new one to me.

Hit A Single

October 26th, 2010
11:58 am

UGA VII is an imposter!

hahhahahahahaha!!!!!

October 26th, 2010
12:01 pm

Nerd fans still trying to convince themselves that all UGA has is 5 star players, when truth be told Richt has only had 9 5-star recruits in 10 years. Face it nerds, UGA is beating your 3 and 4 star guys with their own 3 and 4 star guys.

GTMustang

October 26th, 2010
12:02 pm

ACC Coastal > SEC East

Takes at least 9 wins to win the ACC, it only takes 7 or 8 to win SEC East….that’s weak sauce.

Tech runs this state!!!!!

October 26th, 2010
12:02 pm

Face it mutts!!! Your masters in Atlanta are calling!!!

..

October 26th, 2010
12:03 pm

hahahahahahahahaha!!! . . . . . is a high school drop-out.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
12:04 pm

Newton is weak at passing? I suppose that’s why he is the third rated passer in the entire NCAA this week.

There are times when statistics don’t tell the whole story. Cam has rackd up massive stats on plays where safeties cheat up to stop the run and he lofts the ball over everyone. I saw some of the ULM game and this happened multiple times. LSU’s plan was fairly solid overall except they kept crashing the ends trying to light him up. The team that will shut Cam down (somewhat anyway) is a team that has D-linemen big and strong enough to hold linemen at the point of attack so the linebackers can roam free and pursue. You want your linemen to be disciplined, not getting too far upfield. This will obviously give Cam enough time in the pocket to make a sandwich before throwing if he so chooses, but from what I’ve seen of him he ain’t gonna beat you throwing short and intermediate passes through zones. He just doesn’t read well enough to do it imo. If you focus on catching and tackling him for a short gain instead of trying to blow him up every play you’ll have a chance at slowing him down enough to beat them. With (a hopefully healthy) Dareus, Chapman, and Murphy all over 300 lbs. I think Bama has the D-line to execute such a plan.

GTpinto

October 26th, 2010
12:04 pm

“Weak Sauce” is that the ACC champ is going to be a team that was handled by James Madison at home. Now go sit on it, nerd.

dawgfacedboy

October 26th, 2010
12:05 pm

Would anyone be surprised if the mediocre Brantley pulls a Jonathan Crompton and has the game of his life, looking like a freaking Heisman candidate!?!?!?

Other than the mental factor there is absolutely no reason UGA shouldn’t win this game easily. That’s a big SHOULDN’T. Given the history over the last 20 years the only thing I’ll be surprised with is a win.

hahahahahaha!!!!!!!

October 26th, 2010
12:05 pm

I love delusional, lying, bitter, miserable Yech fans!!!!!

JMac12203

October 26th, 2010
12:05 pm

I will admit that I over estimated GT this season. I thought the replacements would roll, and Tech would finish maybe 10-2. It looks like when they play the pups it will be to go 6-6 or 7-5. As far as the pups go, I have been pretty much spot on. I said 8-4 would be a “GREAT” season, but that will never happen. I fould my picks from the spring, and had them losing to SC, Ark., Missy St., with Colorado as a toss-up. The reso of the way, I have them losing to the Gators and Auburn with GT as a toss-up. I have been astounded at the delusional puppy bloggers who actually thought they could win 10-11 games with their creampuff schedule. I knew the scheduls was not that easy, but you cannot tell a puppy dog fan anything, because they already know it all.

George Wallace was a Tide fan

October 26th, 2010
12:06 pm

“Georgew Wallace was a Tide fan, Wasn”t Forrest Gump also a fan?”

Gump went to Alabama on a Hollywood athletic scholarship and then became a shrimp boat captain all while investing money into Apple Computers(TM).

Chars

October 26th, 2010
12:06 pm

dawgfacedboy,

You said it, the mental factor is what is at play. Until UGA corrects this psychological edge that UF has before the game is ever played, the results will remain the same.

George Wallace was a Tide fan

October 26th, 2010
12:08 pm

BAMA dude

How much does Saban pay you to write that crap? LSU has a better defense than Bama and they were shredded for 400 yards.

Chars

October 26th, 2010
12:08 pm

Tech fans ALWAYS “over estimate” their seasons.

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
12:09 pm

We’ll all be watching Boise State and Missouri in the title game.

Chars

October 26th, 2010
12:09 pm

You think a bama fan needs to be paid to type delusional, insane, fiction on a blog? Really?

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
12:09 pm

“Tech fans ALWAYS “over estimate” their seasons.”

As do UGA fans.

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
12:11 pm

“Until UGA corrects this psychological edge that UF has before the game is ever played, the results will remain the same.”

Maybe you could call in a priest to exorcise the demons out of UGA.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
12:11 pm

dawgfacedboy, I expect Meyer to have adjusted his offense during the bye week to better suit Brantley. Look for more four and five wide sets and less zone read. Brantley can beat you with his arm, not so much with his feet.

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
12:12 pm

BAMA dude

Since you are good at predicting, how did you predict the South Carolina game?

haters are skaters

October 26th, 2010
12:12 pm

for the fl fans that say ‘10 is a down year for them………..what do they call a 4-4 ga team? no one knows the outcome of this saturday’s game…..but no one can deny that one program has improved as the season has gone on, while the other has regressed

Alphare

October 26th, 2010
12:12 pm

During BAMA-TN game, commentators mentioned BAMA linemen are 30LB bigger by average than TN linemen.

How do they compare to LSU’s?

From Where I Sit

October 26th, 2010
12:13 pm

I wouldn’t bet on it Tony!

GA is not that good and FL is better across the board.

Enough Said!

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
12:15 pm

“How do they compare to LSU’s?”

According to the stats, they don’t.

haters are skaters

October 26th, 2010
12:15 pm

bama dude, brantly may have an arm…..but is there a fl wr that should strike any fear in anyone? maybe, just maybe the fl coaches are aware that they are lacking star talent and don’t have much to work w/, let alone even the option of 4-5 wr on the field at the same time.

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
12:16 pm

“but no one can deny that one program has improved as the season has gone on, while the other has regressed”

If 4-4 is an improvement………..whatever makes you feel good I guess.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
12:20 pm

LSU plays a four man front. LSU fans, feel free to correct me if this is wrong, but one piece I read lists the starters as: Adams(255), Montgomery(245), Nevis(285), and Levingston(280). Bama plays a three man front and has been starting Dareus(306), Chapman(310), and Murphy(319). Damion Square(284) and Luther Davis(279) have also started at DE in place of Murphy who is a soph. It seems that he has won the job now though.

BAMA dude

October 26th, 2010
12:22 pm

haters are skaters,

Could be. No question that UF has more talent on the defensive side than they do on offense. Of course, Rainey will be back so who knows?

haters are skaters

October 26th, 2010
12:22 pm

4-4 is an improvement from 1-4. same as 4-0 to 4-3 is an example of regressing.

i’ll grant you though that maybe fl hasn’t regressed……they just finally played some competition

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
12:27 pm

haters are skaters

FL has only lost games to top 25 teams. UGA has lost to a non-ranked opponent. UGA and FL are about even, in my opinion. The top two teams in the conference are from the state of Alabama which should make the people in that state very proud.

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
12:28 pm

BAMA dude

I’m not sure about the stats but where is Alabama ranked in defense and offense? Thanks

5150 P.O.A.D

October 26th, 2010
12:29 pm

Can the 2 best in the SZEC west Play in the Dome for the SEC Championship? No Team from the SEC east deserves a trip to the DOME.

SEC lunch links | SportsTalk South

October 26th, 2010
12:33 pm

[...] can beat Florida, lose to Auburn, but still win the Eastern Division, writes Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta [...]

With that said.......

October 26th, 2010
12:34 pm

5150 P.O.A.D

The Iron Bowl will be the SECCG and possibly the national title game as well. The east is as bad as the ACC this year.

Mobile Dawg

October 26th, 2010
12:34 pm

Dawgs look to be more athletic at this point, Gators have the psychological edge. For some reason I think that defense will dominate this game. Of course I will be 100% wrong, but I like CTG motivating this D to play it’s most physical game of the year being it’s his first GA/FL event.

Alphare, gator meat is served in a lot of resturants across the South, we had some with Gumbo Saturday. Taste a little like fried chicken if you ask me. It’s not a tradition to grill it while tailgateing by any means. Maybe it should be Dawgs….

Mobile Dawg

October 26th, 2010
12:36 pm

5150, not sure who you’re a fan of, I’ve never paid much attention to your posts. If memory serves me correctly it was an SECE team that put a hurting on what was the pride of the West wasn’t it?

how2fish

October 26th, 2010
12:36 pm

Beat the Gators! Beat the Gators…nothing should matter to a member of the Bull Dog Nation as far as football goes other than..Beat the Gators…,the rest will take care of itself…there is blood in the water at UF….let the Big Dog EAT!

Ray Goof

October 26th, 2010
12:36 pm

Wouldn’t it throw a monkey wrench in the system for a SEC east team to win the SEC championship…..Gators are terrible, now…UGA was terrible in the beginning of the season…..This is a who the heck knows game…….UGA looks better right now, but they could revert to their Colorado performance? anything’s possible

Alphare

October 26th, 2010
12:38 pm

Mobile Dawg,

If you guys ever start grilling gator meat during GA-FL game, don’t forget to give me some credit. I may start going to that game.

3rdn8

October 26th, 2010
12:39 pm

Alabama synopsis.

This is Saban’s fourth season, and things have not gone entirely to plan. i.e…..we didn’t plan to tank it Columbia.

This (in my estimation) is the weakest defense he had fielded in those four years. Players consistenly miss assignments, are out of position, the pass rush has been weak, and the tackling suspect. However, there is visible imrpvement in all of those areas. Two weeks of rest, and a healthy Darius and Upshaw should work wonders.

The offense is burdened by inconsistent run blocking, and confusion (in the OL) on blitz assignments. McElroy has been down more often than Linda Lovelace. I do not see any improvement on those two issues. UT planted McElroy several times last Saturday night. Those types of hits….when delivered by LSU, or Nick Fairley of AU will result in the insertion of backup AJ McCarron.

Special Teams (a major worry because of the attrition from graduation has been a pleasant surprise. Bama may be better on Special Teams than any time during Saban’s tenure.

Assuning the two weeks to get ready for LSU pays dividends, and the OL issues are at least mitigated, this team should finish strong.

Can they beat AU, and Cam Newton? Good question, and I don’t have the answer, but I like Bama’s chances.

3rdn8

October 26th, 2010
12:41 pm

apparently, I can’t tipe

Hell Rooster Ra

October 26th, 2010
12:46 pm

Sounds like a South Carolina fan of old…

Alphare

October 26th, 2010
12:47 pm

AJ McCarron looks better than McElroy, if you ask me.

McElroy’s throws just don’t look right to me and more than often receivers don’t run the right routes either. Receivers have to turn back or run sideways to have to good chance. But more than often, receivers run forward when the balls reach them.