Georgia can beat Gators, lose to Auburn, and still win SEC East

 I  put this list together yesterday as sort of a sanity check of what could happen in the whacky SEC East as we move into the stretch drive. It doesn’t include every scenario, such as Kentucky winning its last three conference games with Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee to finish 4-4. If that happens, I will gladly stand corrected.

Here are SOME possibilities, not all, of what could happen to determine a champion in the SEC East race.  The most fascinating one is that if Georgia beats Florida, the Bulldogs could still lose to Auburn and go to the SEC championship game in Atlanta. In that respect, the game in Jacksonville is huge to both teams.

Have fun.

First, the teams:

SOUTH CAROLINA (3-2 SEC)

Wins: Georgia, Alabama, Vanderbilt

Losses: Auburn, Kentucky

Games left: vs. Tennessee (Saturday), vs. Arkansas (Nov. 6), at Florida (Nov. 13)

 

FLORIDA (2-3)

Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky

Losses: Alabama, LSU, Miss. State

Games left: Georgia (Jacksonville, Saturday), at Vanderbilt (Nov. 6), vs. South Carolina Nov. 13.

 

GEORGIA (3-3)

Wins: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Losses: South Carolina, Arkansas, Miss. State

Games left: Florida (Jacksonville, Saturday), at Auburn (Nov. 13).

 

THE SCENARIOS

1. South Carolina controls its own destiny. If the Gamecocks beat Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida they win the SEC East at 6-2.

2. Florida controls its own destiny. If the Gators beat Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina they will be 5-3 in the conference. Florida would win the tiebreaker with South Carolina if both are 5-3 and Georgia would be 4-4 at best.

3. Georgia doesn’t control its destiny because it lost to South Carolina on Sept. 11. But if it beats Florida and Auburn, and South Carolina loses two of its last three conference games, Georgia will win the Division. Georgia will be 5-3 while South Carolina and Florida will be 4-4 at best.

4. If Georgia beats Florida and South Carolina loses two of its last three conference games, Georgia will win the division whether or not it beats Auburn on Nov. 13. Here’s how:

If Georgia beats Florida but loses to Auburn, Georgia will be 4-4 in the SEC but 4-1 in the Eastern Division (loss to South Carolina).

If Florida loses to Georgia but beats Vanderbilt and South Carolina, it will be 4-4 in the conference but also 4-1 in the Division (Loss to Georgia).

If South Carolina drops two of its last three conference games and one of those losses is to Florida it will be 4-4 in the conference but no better than 3-2 in the division (Losses to Kentucky and Florida).

South Carolina is thus eliminated from the three-way tie at 4-4. Georgia wins the division on the head to head win over Florida.

 That should keep us all busy for a while.

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649 comments Add your comment

Realistic Fan

October 26th, 2010
7:30 am

This is the problem...

October 26th, 2010
7:33 am

…with playoff schemes. Arcane rules determine that a team with a 50% W/L ratio from the East division enters the playoff over a one loss team from the West division. That’s okay, so long as the two best teams in the conference aren’t in the same division.

Realistic Fan

October 26th, 2010
7:40 am

Nothing about the “allbarn” (”awbrin” “awulbarn”) plainsmen, tigers, war eagles or whatever they think they are so all of you clowns (bama) has to bring up laptops today.

Everyone is on the pups this weekend after their 3 game streak through “murderers row”.

They could cetrtainly win but this feels like one of those games where UF +3 will look like a christmas present by the half.

Moonpie

October 26th, 2010
7:42 am

Not really buying the fact we will win the SEC East,I do however think we are good enough to beat Florida. Just beat Florida-not squeak by them-we need to dominate just like our last 3 games.Bobo will be the deciding factor on Sat.He must call an aggressive game and not sit on a lead.Keep the pressure on the Gator offense to score.

ATL is TigerTown

October 26th, 2010
7:45 am

What we think we are is Number 1 in the BCS, looking down our noses at morons who think they’re being realistic.

shane

October 26th, 2010
7:45 am

After reading all that I need a Goody’s Powder. Bottom line, win and your in.

Charlie Bama

October 26th, 2010
7:50 am

A whole lot of moving parts there, Mr. Tony. Reminds me of of a elementary school play–something ain’t gonna happen like it’s suppose to. The SEC East is a mess, and the SEC West is still murky. Good Luck, BullDawgs! Beat Gators (it’s probably now or never), and beat (down) the Barners. Bama’s got your back.

Tater Train

October 26th, 2010
7:51 am

Be sure to watch tonight as the giant killers in blue demolish yet another of the very best teams in college football. If the SEC was any good, then Boise State would be in the SEC. BSU is so dominant that they are the only team in the nation with a 96% chance of going undefeated.

Moonpie

October 26th, 2010
7:51 am

Shane,

I got a box loaded up for the trip to Jax. I dont know if I will need it more from the stress of the game or from all the beer drinking.

Crazy

October 26th, 2010
7:52 am

But where are the scenario’s for South Carolina losing only one game? That is a far more likely outcome…yet it is not mentioned above. Does that mean they win the SEC East? Looks like they are in the drivers seat!!!

Florida will finish 3-5 in SEC. Uga will finish 4-4. South Carolina will finish 5-3. But clearly the SEC West is SUPREME this year. Likely five of those teams would have won the SEC East this year. Yes…even Mississippi State looks like they would have won the SEC East. Down year for us Dawg fans and everyone else in the East.

Gen Neyland

October 26th, 2010
7:52 am

A team that loses 4 in the conference, winning the SEC East is what I’d call bitter-sweet. Puts a twist on the saying, ‘Only the strong survive.’ Make that read, ‘Only the strongest of the weak survive.’ All in all, whoever walks away from the East with the title, let me be the first to offer them my congrats.

Moonpie

October 26th, 2010
7:53 am

Charlie B,

Its now or never-Man we have heard that every year for 20 years.We must not just win this year but get back to beating UF more consistently

shane

October 26th, 2010
7:57 am

Moonpie,

The best hangover medicine there is. Alka Seltzer for the stress and Goody’s for the pounding head.

Moonpie

October 26th, 2010
7:58 am

Thanks Shane,Im sure I will need both.

ss

October 26th, 2010
7:59 am

After watching the tide and auburn play against other conference teams, I would assume UGA, or whomever wins the east wont compete in the title game at the dome.

Those are some strong teams and the Iron Bowl looks really interesting this year.

Moonpie

October 26th, 2010
8:00 am

BoBo is the key on Sat. Would like to see him in the booth on Sat.I perfer him away from the other coaches,I think he calls a better game upstairs.

shane

October 26th, 2010
8:02 am

ss

I wouldn’t be so sure. I think the one thing this season has taught everyone is that no-one is unbeatable. Been a crazy year.

Gen Neyland

October 26th, 2010
8:05 am

This is the problem… : There’s nothing arcane about winning your division and playing for the title. In fact, that IS playoff football. At this point, the SECCG doesn’t look too glamorous on the national stage but may inpact whether the SEC has a player in the BCSNCG. For those involved, it’s starting to be white-knuckle time.

ss

October 26th, 2010
8:12 am

shane,

your right about that, Im just going to have a tough time watching a bcs title game with teams like bosie who dont play anyone good.

Why not put them up against a stronger team in the country at the chick fil a classic one year against a team from the sec.

It only makes sense.

Moonpie

October 26th, 2010
8:14 am

Word is Tebow is addressing the Gator team on Thursday.

Beast from the East

October 26th, 2010
8:17 am

Bottom line is this. USC and UF control their own destiny. UGA can only win with some help from the other two. This weekend will decide whether UF or UGA is eliminated and relegated to playing the role of spoiler.
While neither team is ranked, it’s still one of the most important games they have played against each other in a while.
Hopefully, the Gators have worked out a few things on offense and will be able to score some points. If not, then the season is a wash.
Go Gators!

T-Bone

October 26th, 2010
8:19 am

Here’s what will happen. SC will beat Tenn & FL, but lose to Ark. FL will beat Ga & Vandy, but lose to SC. Ga will lose to both FL & Auburn. SC will win the suck-egg East.

Beast from the East

October 26th, 2010
8:19 am

Moonpie,
He can address them all he wants. If they don’t played inspired, assignement footbal for 4 quarters then they’ll notch their 4th loss in a row. Tebow can’t make plays for them. That’s THEIR job!

SadDawg

October 26th, 2010
8:20 am

I just hope he doesn’t play, Moonpie . . .

Beast from the East

October 26th, 2010
8:20 am

Several typos in my last post, but I’m sure you get the point.

Jake

October 26th, 2010
8:21 am

Iron Bowl,, will be an Iron Bowl this year.

SadDawg

October 26th, 2010
8:23 am

All of this championship talk is just so much BS. Champions don’t lose 4 games in a row. Let’s see the Dawgs beat the Gators, for a change.

gomdawg

October 26th, 2010
8:23 am

Why is everybody saying this is the only year we got a chance, THUUUUUUUU. WITH A. Murray at QB the next three year and the talent coming back 2011 recruiting class I SEE A STRING OF WINS FOR GEORGIA.

Richard

October 26th, 2010
8:24 am

Great post Tony! I was wondering how the tie-breakers were set up. Go Dawgs!

gomdawg

October 26th, 2010
8:25 am

SadDawg , you have to set goal and at this point this is a possiable goal, GET OVER IT SAD SACK

jasont13

October 26th, 2010
8:25 am

In 2006 Auburn was a top 10 team and UGA went down on the plains and beat probably one of Auburn’s best teams this decade. UGA has a good chance just like any team of beating Auburn. Their luck has to run out on them someday. You can’t squeak by teams every week in the SEC, it will eventually catch up with you.

Moonpie

October 26th, 2010
8:26 am

Glad to hear Branden Smith is back.Would like to see him alot on offense-we could use his speed.

Jake

October 26th, 2010
8:27 am

Dawgs will beat Fla.

jasont13

October 26th, 2010
8:27 am

If you go on history alone, UGA losses to Florida but beats Auburn. Unfortunately you can’t go off history this year.

Gator Man

October 26th, 2010
8:28 am

Once again, these jerks sports writers at the ajc, are making Georgia some kind of power house, they have loss 4 games, in Florida the sports writers are giving it to Meyers and this team, they are not talking about wining no East with 3 losses.

Mark Richt is still being praise here after losing to Colorodo, Urban has 2 Nat and he is under pressure, this is why UGA still has not won a championship since Ronald Reagan was in office, and why they are still showing 1980 film, these sports writers are to puppy in love with the Dogs to tell them the hard truth, their season sucked for the last few years.

JB

October 26th, 2010
8:28 am

Tebow can address the team, but he can’t play. I think just the opposite. We lose to Gators in a close one……….and upset Auburn, playing loose with nothing to lose. Knocking them off would make our year,and I think we can.

jasont13

October 26th, 2010
8:29 am

The game that really hurts in the Arkansas game. If Bobo calls the right plays with a minute and change left UGA could have been in position to kick a game winning field goal.

SadDawg

October 26th, 2010
8:29 am

I know political correctness keeps Jax and the two schools from calling it the World’s Largest Coctail Party anymore, but in truth the party down there has been raging since about Friday. I live about 40 miles north on US-1 and the motorhomes and campers with the UGA flags have been rolling through town since last week.

jasont13

October 26th, 2010
8:32 am

Gator Man, were you reading the AJC about a month ago? I doubt it. If you were you would have read Mark Bradley and Jeff Schultz’s articles as to why Mark Richt should be fired. Urban Meyer should be catching some heat. You have a protypical QB but he (Urban Meyer) still wants to run an offense like he has a 250# fullback still playing QB. Maybe its karma for him since he is a jerk to most of the press down in Florida.

You Ain't-Know Gaily Whacker

October 26th, 2010
8:34 am

The Reporter: Mr McGarity, do you know what is happening at Tennessee ?

Greg: Maybe D. Dooley is losing it. Earlier this year they had a cootie problem and he had to show them how to bathe.

Now this German talk is just–weird.

I heard they are replacing Rocky Top with this tune.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkajXeVLpk4&feature=related

JB

October 26th, 2010
8:35 am

Only Gator Man can make the worst UF team in 20 years sound good. Meyer has been exposed. HE lost 4 great assit . coach’s, and IF he’s SO GREAT, WHY WHY WHY are these Gators losing to inferior teams EVERY WEEK. What happen to ” WE JUST RELOAD CRAP”.
Shooting blanks is what it looks like….. A roster FULL Of 5 STAR players and lose 3 in a row.
Springing Rainey out of the pen this week to try jump start a powerhouse offense that scored 7 points against Miss St. LMAO…….7 points….really ? I like our chances this week, and you want find a Gator Anywhere next week if lose #4 rolls around……….I’d love to hear Tebows talk…….. It’ll start off, Ya’ll really suck dudes…….LOL

Jehro Bodeen

October 26th, 2010
8:35 am

Georgia win out!

Gen Neyland

October 26th, 2010
8:35 am

SadDawg : Must be a sight down yonder. Personally, I’m glad this game has more meaning than the rivalry. As far as PC goes, screw ‘em. They’ll only take away from us the things we allow them to.

Dawg_Mike

October 26th, 2010
8:35 am

Tebow addressing the team?
Good- maybe he can tell them how his team just gave up 59 points to one of the worst franchises in the NFL.

SadDawg

October 26th, 2010
8:36 am

gomdawg, I wasn’t sad, until I read your sentences. That’s sad.

Mike

October 26th, 2010
8:38 am

Who cares about the East, whoever wins the west is winning the CCG in a rout.

Blue

October 26th, 2010
8:40 am

SS; for the most part, SEC teams are NOT going to schedule anyone tough out of conference, with rare exceptions. You saw what GA did this year? They added Charleston and another FCS school to future schedule, and their AD said “we are NOT doing that anymore” (scheduling significant BCS schools). I don’t think, for all of the SEC bravado on these blogs, that anyone wants Boise on their REGULAR SEASON schedule. Teams want to go undefeated so they can play in the BCSCG, and they are not going to add a Boise to their schedule…period.

JB

October 26th, 2010
8:42 am

McGarity learned that from Foley…..Go back at look at Florida’s first three games last year….They ought to refund some of the money to their fans. Weak.

RxDawg

October 26th, 2010
8:42 am

Playoffs? PLAYOFFS!?

Nah, really the East isn’t even on my wish list right now as a Dawg. Beating Florida is, and Auburn 5 in a row certainly is. Them being ranked #1 is just a perk.

SEC Least

October 26th, 2010
8:43 am

http://pricezack.wordpress.com/ who is going to win it? who knows, but this site has a great georgia-florida game preview. pretty interesting read