In 2003 USC finished No. 1 in the two human polls used in the BCS Standings (AP and Coaches). But when the final numbers were crunched, LSU and Oklahoma were the top two teams in the BCS standings and played for the national championship in the Sugar Bowl. USC won the Rose Bowl and finished No. 1 in the AP poll and was decared national champs by that news service.
Not wanting to have split national champions again, the BCS changed its formula so that the human polls would count two thirds while the computers only accounted for one third. The thinking was that if the human polls agreed on the top two teams, the computers would not override the will of the voters. The powers that be talked about making it a rule where the computers would only be used if the human polls did not agree. They ultimately decided not to put that language in the rules.
But right now Boise State is No. 2 in the human polls but No. 3 in the BCS Standings. And Boise’s computer rankings (No. 7 average right now) are only going to get worse as the season goes along.
Here are a couple of charts that show you what Boise is up against. The Broncos may have won the hearts and minds of enough voters, but the computers, as we all know, don’t have a heart.
Here is a chart of the Top 10 teams in the BCS Standings and the teams in the Top 25 that they have played or are scheduled to play:
OKLAHOMA (4) : Florida State (17), Texas (19), Missouri (11), Oklahoma State (14)
BOISE STATE (1): Virginia Tech (25)
OREGON (2): Stanford (12), Arizona (18)
AUBURN (5): LSU (6), Alabama (8), Miss. State (24), Arkansas (23), South Carolina (21)
TCU (1): Utah (9)
LSU (5): Miss. State (24), West Virginia (20), Auburn (4), Alabama (8), Arkansas (23)
MICHIGAN STATE: (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)
ALABAMA (5): Arkansas (23), S. Carolina (21), LSU (6), Miss. State (24), Auburn (4)
UTAH (1): TCU (5)
OHIO STATE (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)
You’ll note that Boise State has played or will play only one team in the Top 25: No. 25 Virginia Tech.
Just for fun, here are the rankings of the rest of Boise State’s opponents according to the CBSSports.com Top 120:
Fresno State (4-2)..…63
La. Tech (3-4)…………77
Utah State (2-5)………86
The point is that as the season goes along Boise’s computer numbers are only going to drop. But chances are the voters won’t move them from No. 2 as as long the Broncos keep winning impresssively. The exception I could see to that is if Auburn or LSU stays undefeated. One of those teams could eventually jump Boise.
So we could be in a situation where Boise stays No. 2 in the human polls but does not play in the Big Game.
Won’t that be a fun argument? Would you have a problem with that? Woud it/Shoud it blow up the BCS?
And if it happens, could we have split national champions again? Could the AP decide to make Boise its national champ?
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