The Humans Love Boise; the computers don’t

In 2003 USC finished No. 1 in the two human polls used in the BCS Standings (AP and Coaches). But when the final numbers were crunched, LSU and Oklahoma were the top two teams in the BCS standings and played for the national championship in the Sugar Bowl. USC won the Rose Bowl and finished No. 1 in the AP poll and was decared national champs by that news service.

Not wanting to have split national champions again,  the BCS changed its formula so that the human polls would count two thirds while the computers only accounted for one third. The thinking was that if the human polls agreed on the top two teams, the computers  would not override the will of the voters. The powers that be talked about making it a rule where the computers would only be used if the human polls did not agree. They ultimately decided not to put that language in the rules.

But right now  Boise State is No. 2 in the human polls but No. 3 in the BCS Standings. And Boise’s computer rankings (No. 7 average right now)  are only going to get worse as the season goes along.

Here are a couple of charts that show you what Boise is up against. The Broncos  may have won the hearts and minds of enough voters, but the computers, as we all know, don’t have a heart.

Here is a chart of the Top 10 teams in the BCS Standings and the teams in the Top 25 that they have played or are scheduled to play:

OKLAHOMA (4) : Florida State (17), Texas (19), Missouri (11), Oklahoma State (14)

BOISE STATE (1): Virginia Tech (25)

OREGON (2): Stanford (12), Arizona (18)

AUBURN (5): LSU (6), Alabama (8), Miss. State (24), Arkansas (23), South Carolina (21)

TCU (1): Utah (9)

LSU (5): Miss. State (24),  West Virginia (20), Auburn (4), Alabama (8), Arkansas (23)

MICHIGAN STATE: (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)

ALABAMA (5): Arkansas (23), S. Carolina (21), LSU (6), Miss. State (24), Auburn (4)

UTAH (1): TCU (5)

OHIO STATE (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)

You’ll note that Boise State has played or will play only one team in the Top 25: No. 25 Virginia Tech.

 Just for fun, here are the rankings of the rest of Boise State’s opponents according to the CBSSports.com Top 120:

Nevada (6-1)………….29

Hawaii (5-2)…………..38

Fresno State (4-2)..…63

La. Tech (3-4)…………77

Idaho (3-3)…………….82

Utah State (2-5)………86

The point is that as the season goes along Boise’s computer numbers are only going to drop. But chances are the voters won’t move them from No. 2 as as long the Broncos keep winning impresssively. The  exception I could see to that is if Auburn or LSU stays undefeated. One of those teams could eventually jump Boise.

So we could be in a situation where Boise stays No. 2 in the human polls but does not play in the Big Game.

Won’t that be a fun argument?  Would you have a problem with that? Woud it/Shoud it blow up the BCS?

And if it happens, could we have split national champions again? Could the AP decide to make Boise its national champ?

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338 comments Add your comment

Tide Rising

October 19th, 2010
6:04 pm

Boise Dawg,

So Bama was a crap program in 2005. I’m sorry. I thought we spent most of the season in the top 5 after beating UF 31-3 earlier in the season and spent 4 weeks ranked 3rd. I also thought we won 10 games that year and beat Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Since when did a 10 win season constitute a crap season moron?

Better that you should keep your mouth shut and let everyone think you are a fool rather than open it and confirm that you are indeed a fool.

Peteybuck

October 19th, 2010
6:07 pm

And by the way… If Boise State played in the SEC they would have all of the finacial and recruitment benefits as such. You guys have no idea (nor do I, but I don’t claim they would be 8-4 at best)) as to how Boise State would do in the SEC.

Tide Rising

October 19th, 2010
6:09 pm

Boise Dawg,

So now you’re playing that they beat so and so in 06 which beat your team in 08 so they must be better than you. Man that is the weakest logic on here. I seriously doubt the Utah team in 06 was as good as the undefeated Utah team in 08 that finished no. 2 in the country.

Boise Dawg

October 19th, 2010
6:09 pm

Tide.. of course teams lose great players… not every team is dominant every year. Is Alabama as good this year as last year? Florida might was well pack it in as a program… gee they can’t overcome the loss of some talent. We are talking about 2010. Not 2000, 2001 or even 2009.

You are criticizing Boise for going 10-2 in the regular season and losing to a BCS team on the road and a team that played in a BCS bowl game on the road. What a terrible program they must have.

Boise Dawg

October 19th, 2010
6:11 pm

No Tide I am really not… I am merely flipping your argument around to how how idiotic it is. We can’t compare prior years to this year.. that is my point.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
6:18 pm

They’re still playing the same loser schedule. A high school team would have a great defensive ranking if they never encountered any decent offenses.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
6:21 pm

@Peteybuck

Your argument is that Boise State would be great — if only they weren’t Boise State.

Boise Dawg

October 19th, 2010
6:24 pm

You guys act like they can control their schedule. Look I am not going to argue that Boise State deserves to play for a BCS title.. they probably don’t. However that doesn’t change the fact that I think they could beat anyone in the country right now.

All the BSU haters act like they can control what conference they play in. It has taken them years to even get invited to the Mountain West. The Pac 10 wants nothing to do with them. They can’t play all of the non-conference games as away games… and it is very difficult to schedule good out of conference opponents.

Peteybuck

October 19th, 2010
6:27 pm

Dave, you sure are one pompus individual. You choose to look at Boise State’s schedule from 2000-2005. We had been a BCS school for all of 3-7 years. Why don’t you post how we have done from the Fiesta Bowl (Jan 2007) on. You really should get up-to-date!!!!!!

Peteybuck

October 19th, 2010
6:29 pm

Bona fide, my argument is that you are an idiot—nothing else.

Beast from the East

October 19th, 2010
6:33 pm

Boise Dawg,
I see your point in your post @ 6:24pm. They cannot control those things and can only hope they are given an opportunity. Whether they deserve that opportunity or not is certainly a hot topic nationally. The one thing I do know for sure is this…..my Gators wouldn’t want any part of them this year! We’ve been stinking it up and continue to do so week after week after week.
Oh well, it’s still great to be a Gator!

Boise Dawg

October 19th, 2010
6:39 pm

Beast you never know. It has been a crazy year in the East, maybe they get it figured out on offense. I just hope it happens after October 30. At least Florida still controls their own destiny. Run the table and you get to play in the Sugar Bowl.

Beast from the East

October 19th, 2010
6:47 pm

Boise Dawg,
I can’t see us beating a solid South Carolina or FSU this year. Not the way we’ve been playing. As bad as we looked last week, I would not be surprised if we end up being 6-6. That hurt just to type that! I’m afraid a lot of the rival fans were correct in their pre-season predictions about us. The massive amount of turnover on the coaching staff the last two years has really taken it’s toll this year. Especially without the on-the-field leadership we had from Tebow, Spikes, Cooper, etc. Tons of talent, but no chemistry and coaches still trying to figure out what works while teaching young players how to play their assignments. Add that up and it makes for a painful season. I’d just like to see them show improvement week to week instead of back-peddling. Not much room for error in the SEC.

Boise Dawg

October 19th, 2010
6:53 pm

Beast.. it’s amazing how just 1 or 2 guys make so much difference. All this talent that teams like Texas, Florida, Alabama, and yes even Georgia get every year… and yet it all doesn’t matter much if you don’t have leaders and chemistry.

Boise had amazing team chemistry last year and I was hopefull they would have it again this year. That is what makes them so dangerous… yes they are playing cupcakes, but the focus they are able to keep and the beatdowns they are delivering are impressive none the less.

Silent Observer

October 19th, 2010
7:13 pm

I’m impressed with Boise State’s play as well. I also understand that they can’t easily change their circumstances. Still, they don’t deserve consideration for the National Championship. I don’t really care if they’ve won a big game here and there, nor am I impressed with the regular beat-downs that they hand their cream-puff opponents week in and week out. They are better than their regular competition, but their regular competition is inadequate to justify putting them in the same category as a Top Ten team in a BCS conference. They should not be ranked as high as they are. It is a joke and the joke is getting old and stale.

Delbert D.

October 19th, 2010
7:29 pm

By the end of the regular season, it is entirely possible that Alabama and Auburn will have played only 2 teams in the BCS top 25, each other and LSU. Miss. St., Arkansas and S.C. may drop out with another loss.

Boise Dawg

October 19th, 2010
7:35 pm

Silent.. valid points, but I am not sure how you can be impressed by Boise, but then say they aren’t worthy of a top 10 ranking. Not many schools can claim to have beaten two ranked teams out of conference.

I am also of the opinion that their schedule (while it is weak) isn’t quite as bad as most make it out to be and that most of the BCS conferences can be pretty weak outside the top 2 or 3 teams. For example.. this year Toledo beat Purdue which isn’t the worst team in the Big 10. Did you see what Boise did to Toledo? Nevada destroyed Cal… Cal is far from the worst team in the Pac 10. Cal beat UCLA btw, who happened to beat Texas.

brokeback jacket

October 19th, 2010
7:42 pm

If one empty sports venue wasn’t enough, now tech virgins can fail to sell-out the new Sleeperdome, just like that tiny “stadium” they already don’t go to. Next, a new baseball field and sorority houses.

Just kidding, there are no girls at tech, unless you include the butt-ugly cheerleaders.

Silent Observer

October 19th, 2010
7:47 pm

@Boise Dawg

Simple. I’m also impressed by the play of Jacksonville State and Appalachian State.

Hoover High School is pretty good as well, but I wouldn’t rank them in the FBS Top Ten.

Silent Observer

October 19th, 2010
7:48 pm

As for your second paragraph: See LSU vs. Tennessee.

Tide4u2c

October 19th, 2010
7:52 pm

Boise St should be behind all of the BCS schools in the polls who remain undefeated and behind one loss BCS teams too. It is people who prop up Boise St over BCS schools that are not being fair at all.Stop with all of this sympathy for Boise.

Hit A Single

October 19th, 2010
9:13 pm

Boise St. would be five hundred in the SEC!

Cam Newton stole my laptop

October 19th, 2010
9:31 pm

Look for LSU to WORK the barn this weekend.

Cam Newton = overrated felon

Silent Observer

October 19th, 2010
10:03 pm

Cam Newton is a great player, yet even great players who make great speeches about never losing again get shut down sometimes. That’s just football…

Silent Observer

October 19th, 2010
10:11 pm

@Tide4u2c

I suspect that many of the voters figured that they would set Boise up by ranking them high in the pre-season polls and then dump them when they lost to VA Tech. They should have known better. Frank Beamer has become notorious in the past few years for failing to prepare his teams in the off-season. They have to get a loss or two under their belts before they get in gear — then they tend to be the best team in the conference… Not that that’s saying so much.

are you kidding me?

October 19th, 2010
10:53 pm

Regardless of the BCS outcome this year I am definitely going to pull for a Boise State -SEC team matchup in some bowl game. I so hope that happens this year.

are you kidding me?

October 19th, 2010
10:54 pm

And then I hope we can all meet here again for some huge plates of crow to be served!!!

Why u Scared?

October 20th, 2010
12:16 am

it would appear to an observer that there are two types of people in this fight.

Type one: is the Boise fans or people who would like to see them play in the NC game.

Type 2: Fans of the SEC.

It is also very clear that the SEC fans are whining just as much as the Boise fans. So you are all whiners. My team is better because of this or my team is better because of that. It sounds really silly and childish…if Boise is really that terrible of a team then play them in the NC game SEC.

gcs

October 20th, 2010
12:52 am

Computers = smart.
People = stupid.

.

ajc pariah

October 20th, 2010
2:55 am

Ya know, Boise obviously does not play enough Goliaths,but,I’d wager they’d meet you anytime,anywhere.And beat most BCS bada##’s.The intangible,Heart.

Silent Observer

October 20th, 2010
7:57 am

Sure. Just like the Bad News Bears.

Silent Observer

October 20th, 2010
7:58 am

You kids grew up watching too much television.

Dave

October 20th, 2010
10:19 am

Wrong as usual GTbob. Boise was preseason #24 when they played UGA. And as I previously stated, which you coincidentally overlooked, they were coming off a two year run of going 24-2. As I said to begin our conversation, it’s time for you to sit down and shut up.

Bravesfan79

October 20th, 2010
6:43 pm

How can anyone that’s not a TRUE sports fan not root for Boise? Everyone loves a good Rocky/ underdog story. Thats right, most of yall arent TRUE sports fans, and were probably never athletes.
You selfishly only care about your 1 team, and when your team goes undefeated, you are justly rewarded with a trip to some meaningless whogivesacrap.com bowl Yall are fake sports fans, cheering for a fake sport. Perhaps you crappy fans and your crappy sport deserve each other.
Go Braves, Go Falcons!
Oyea… and u better believe if the NFL “voted” on who went to the superbowl, you better believe the fans would protest in mass and not attend games!
But what do College football fans do? They listen to the BCS presidents and buy into their bs. I guess they are just 2 young and dumb to organize themselves enough to force change!
College Football… a drunken frat social event? Yes. A Real Sport? NO!

Bravesfan79

October 20th, 2010
6:46 pm

Boise State would be .500 in the SEC?? Hmmm…a great offense and little defense, hows that working out for Auburn?

'94 UGA Grad

October 21st, 2010
9:58 am

Bravesfan79 you are a moron! If you want to be the best, then you have to play the best. UGA as bad as there are would be 11-1 or 10-2 with Boise’s schedule. And Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Arkansas, and LSU would all be 12-0.

RC Cola and a Moon Pie

October 22nd, 2010
11:52 am

tony – you left Penn State off of Alabamas schedule as your article stated “played or left to play”. Joe Pa’s team was #14(?) when they played?

Old School

October 26th, 2010
8:57 am

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