The Humans Love Boise; the computers don’t

In 2003 USC finished No. 1 in the two human polls used in the BCS Standings (AP and Coaches). But when the final numbers were crunched, LSU and Oklahoma were the top two teams in the BCS standings and played for the national championship in the Sugar Bowl. USC won the Rose Bowl and finished No. 1 in the AP poll and was decared national champs by that news service.

Not wanting to have split national champions again,  the BCS changed its formula so that the human polls would count two thirds while the computers only accounted for one third. The thinking was that if the human polls agreed on the top two teams, the computers  would not override the will of the voters. The powers that be talked about making it a rule where the computers would only be used if the human polls did not agree. They ultimately decided not to put that language in the rules.

But right now  Boise State is No. 2 in the human polls but No. 3 in the BCS Standings. And Boise’s computer rankings (No. 7 average right now)  are only going to get worse as the season goes along.

Here are a couple of charts that show you what Boise is up against. The Broncos  may have won the hearts and minds of enough voters, but the computers, as we all know, don’t have a heart.

Here is a chart of the Top 10 teams in the BCS Standings and the teams in the Top 25 that they have played or are scheduled to play:

OKLAHOMA (4) : Florida State (17), Texas (19), Missouri (11), Oklahoma State (14)

BOISE STATE (1): Virginia Tech (25)

OREGON (2): Stanford (12), Arizona (18)

AUBURN (5): LSU (6), Alabama (8), Miss. State (24), Arkansas (23), South Carolina (21)

TCU (1): Utah (9)

LSU (5): Miss. State (24),  West Virginia (20), Auburn (4), Alabama (8), Arkansas (23)

MICHIGAN STATE: (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)

ALABAMA (5): Arkansas (23), S. Carolina (21), LSU (6), Miss. State (24), Auburn (4)

UTAH (1): TCU (5)

OHIO STATE (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)

You’ll note that Boise State has played or will play only one team in the Top 25: No. 25 Virginia Tech.

 Just for fun, here are the rankings of the rest of Boise State’s opponents according to the CBSSports.com Top 120:

Nevada (6-1)………….29

Hawaii (5-2)…………..38

Fresno State (4-2)..…63

La. Tech (3-4)…………77

Idaho (3-3)…………….82

Utah State (2-5)………86

The point is that as the season goes along Boise’s computer numbers are only going to drop. But chances are the voters won’t move them from No. 2 as as long the Broncos keep winning impresssively. The  exception I could see to that is if Auburn or LSU stays undefeated. One of those teams could eventually jump Boise.

So we could be in a situation where Boise stays No. 2 in the human polls but does not play in the Big Game.

Won’t that be a fun argument?  Would you have a problem with that? Woud it/Shoud it blow up the BCS?

And if it happens, could we have split national champions again? Could the AP decide to make Boise its national champ?

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338 comments Add your comment

Freddie

October 19th, 2010
4:24 pm

There are only 3 SEC teams I can say with certainty that Boise could beat any day of the week. However, there are 12 ACC teams they could beat without even showing up.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
4:25 pm

@wxwax

WTH do “proper statisticians” (or the NYT) know about football?

GTBob = douchness

October 19th, 2010
4:26 pm

You are a troll. If UGA played Parkview’s freshman team you’d claim to go with the 9th graders. Ignorant bug fans are all the same.

rex

October 19th, 2010
4:27 pm

Just like I believe Ga. Southern would beat the Trade School and this is exactly why Yech has refused their challenged year after year.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
4:28 pm

Barbara Dooley says that LSU had 12 men on the field when Tennessee was penalized for having 13. I don’t doubt it.

Buck

October 19th, 2010
4:33 pm

When you accuse a team of playing a “Boise schedule” it’s not meant as a compliment. This phrase was coined for a reason.

Not a chance in Haitis should Boise get a crack at the national title.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
4:35 pm

Im a troll because I think Boise St would beat UGA? Because I think a 7-0 team who hasn’t lost since 2008, while playing 4 top 15 teams, would beat a 3-4 UGA team who couldn’t beat Colorado and whose best win is against Tennessee? You really think i’m the only one who would Boise St in that game? Boise was favored to beat Va Tech when Va Tech was a top 5 team, in a game that was in Maryland. But yeah, I must be a troll.

curious

October 19th, 2010
4:35 pm

Which WAC team will Tech get hammered by this year in the Smurf Bowl?

Dave

October 19th, 2010
4:40 pm

Looks like GTBob needs a little history lesson. When Boise played and LOST to Arkansas in 2000 they were coming off a 10-3 season. When Boise played and LOST to South Carolina in 2001 they were coming off a 10-2 season. In 2002 when Boise played and LOST to Arkansas they finished that year 12-1. When Boise played and LOST to UGA in 2005 they were coming off consecutive seasons with a combined record of 24-2.

Now sit down and shut up and go troll somewhere else. You sound more stupid with each moronic post.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
4:41 pm

wxwax, thanks for the heads up on that article. It was pretty informative. Here is a link if anyone else wants to read it: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/sports/ncaafootball/17score.html?_r=1&scp=4&sq=BCS&st=cse.

wft!!?!?!

October 19th, 2010
4:42 pm

Where are these “4 top 15 teams” at?? Boise has only played two teams so far that are above .500, and none of which appear in the top 25?

come on guys

October 19th, 2010
4:42 pm

humans do not vote “correct” all the time…The SC coach most of the time votes for Duke…

hahahahahaha!!!!!

October 19th, 2010
4:43 pm

Dave just biooootched slapped GTbob back into the wh0re house!!! LOL!!!!!

jack bull

October 19th, 2010
4:45 pm

i think it would be safe to say, if Boise St had to play Oregon, USC, Stanford, and then Arizona, and heck, throw in UCLA in the middle of them, they’d come out 3-2(at best)…and that’s just the PAC-10…nuff said..

bingo

October 19th, 2010
4:45 pm

Exactly ‘come on guys.’ Pity that some on here still believe that it’s actually the head coaches that are doing the voting, while wasting hours of time watching random games of opponents they will never face and all the while not holding any grudges or resentments towards any other programs whatsoever.

I could probably sell ocean front property in Oklahoma to most of the buffoons that post on here.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
4:45 pm

Dave, what does that have to do with anything? Are you saying because Boise lost to Arkansas in 2000 that they would have no chance against UGA this year?

bingo

October 19th, 2010
4:46 pm

Jack bull,

Finally some commonsense!!!

turner stage

October 19th, 2010
4:47 pm

Ouch!!! I have to agree with the hahahaha guy. GTbob just got owned.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
4:47 pm

wft, did you even read my post? Since the last time they lost they have beaten 4 top 15 teams. Try to keep up.

cooper

October 19th, 2010
4:50 pm

GTbob –

Dude, I don’t think I would post for awhile. But if you do I think I’d change names. You just got pantsed dude

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
4:50 pm

@GTBob

You then argued that past games have no relevance with regard to future games.

You were correct when you said that. Best to just quit while you’re ahead.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
4:53 pm

Nah, ill stick around, i’m bored. How did I get pantsed excatly? No one here has even made an argument against my argument. They just try to write something funny, a few other people on his side write owned. I’m still waiting for a relevant reason why UGA would kill Boise St this year.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
4:54 pm

Why wouldn’t they?

Dave

October 19th, 2010
4:58 pm

It has everything to do with it since you specifically cited Boise’s undefeated streak and record as being your reasoning as to why you believe Boise would beat UGA. Overlooking the fact that Boise plays one of the weakest schedules in the country annually. I thought I would take the liberty of showing you Boise’s other records in regard to their previous contests against SEC teams. The notion that Boise has just arrived is nonsense. ESPN has been cramming Boise down our throats for a decade now. They are only pretending they are new to the scene so they don’t have to eat crow and relive all the previous years they were blindly touting the Broncos.

I am a fan of the program actually, but I choose to be rational and logical when I discuss them.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
4:59 pm

Bona Fide,

I say that based on the trend of their offense. Look at what u posted.Thier offense is getting stronger each week.Im not an AUBURN fan but it appears to me if your defense isnt solid your offense will need at least 35-40 points to match them.

wow

October 19th, 2010
4:59 pm

Bob is apparently oblivious to the fact he is a blog punching bag. Not sure if I should laugh or feel pity….

camel

October 19th, 2010
5:02 pm

But who were those top 4 teams? The always overrated Pac 10 teams and “Blow Big Game” Stoops? Give me a break. I’d go as far as saying had Boise beaten even an ACC team during this same stretch that would be more respectable than the 4 top 15 teams you are talking about.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
5:05 pm

Dave, I wouldn’t say they just arrived, but they are much better then they were then. They have 5 players on their team projected to go in the NFL draft, including two of the best wide receivers in football. Kellen Moore isn’t included in those 5 and I think most would say he is an above average QB. They also have a completely different coaching staff then back then. When I cite games they have played in their winning streak its because they still have most of the players they had last year. These players have played together and have played tough games.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
5:06 pm

wow, im enjoying it, don’t pity me. :)

hahahahahaha!!!!!

October 19th, 2010
5:09 pm

Bam!!!! Boom!!!!! Dave drops GTboobie again!!! This is hilarious!!!!!!!! It’s like a little kid trying to fight his dad or something!!! LOL!!!!!

Gbal

October 19th, 2010
5:13 pm

There is no way that the BCS system can guarantee that the top two teams in the nation meet in the final game. Too many variables … Strength of schedule being the biggest, and then there is also the media influence on the voters…

But I do feel 100% confident that the current BCS poll system would capture the top 6-8 … maybe 10-12 teams in their final 16 teams if we had a playoff system. There would also be some Boises, TCU’s… in that top 16 and they would have a chance to prove themselve on the field in the end of season tournament.

Take the top 16 period . The top 8 seeds have home field (on campus) for the first round of 8 games. Then the last 7 games go to the 7 top bowls. You get excitement from fans wanting to finish #1….Excitement surrounding making the top 8 and a home field first round playoff game at your campus… you get excitement around making that top 16 cut to get a chance for the BCS tourney….

Currently we just talk about who is going to be 1 & 2…

The added interest and excitment means additional $$$ for all in the NCAAFB food chain …. and a 16 game playoff definately does not dilute the regular season …Just the opposite… you have more teams fighting to make the cut to the tourney…

BUT it can not be the confrence champs get an auto IN…. we want the top 16 to fight it out to determing the true champ.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
5:15 pm

@MURPHY

There is no trend. Auburn scored over 50 in their first game, but I only listed their legitimate games. They have been up and down offensively and they had one blowout win over Arkansas. They have never had an impressive game on defense. Let’s see what they do next Saturday before we crown them the “New Boise State”.

Dave

October 19th, 2010
5:18 pm

Boise had put several guys over the years into the NFL. More so than most people are aware of. Would I say they are better now they were back then? Sure. But would I say they are heads and shoulders better? Absolutely not. Reason being is that they still have not played enough worthy opponents consistently to make an honest assessment. 80% of Boise’s status comes from their performances against the two Oregon schools over the years. Two of the most overhyped programs in the country. Oklahoma has laid more eggs than I can count and even Boise would admit that they were not expecting for every single one of their trick plays to go off flawlessly in that game. And I’m still not entirely sold on TCU. Clemson should have beat them for crying out loud.

It all goes back to the schedule and the teams they have beat. If Boise would do this in one year in any BCS conference I will then concede they are awesome, but until then, they are paper champions taking advantage of a media that is thirty for a David vs. Goliath plot-line.

tell me again

October 19th, 2010
5:23 pm

I will say it again : The last time Boise had the “offense of the century” they came to Athens with their impressive winning streak and got a mud hole stomped in their face. Then the flavor of the week was Hawaii – played the Dawgs in the bowl game and were thoroughly pounded into hamburger meat. If these teams played in the SEC they would have to deal with the week in and week out pounding of teams that are their equal – not the glorified high school teams they play now. They should not be in the duscussion…period. They are a big fish in a little itty bitty pond.

Tide Rising

October 19th, 2010
5:26 pm

Dave’s stats regarding Boise tell me all I need to know.

I had no idea that Boise had played Ark twice in the early 2000s- a 12-1 Boise team got walloped 41-14 by Ark. The rematch 2 years later was a little more respectable 38-31 with Ark probably not taking Boise as seriously due to the beating they gave Boise 2 years earlier.

And S. Carolina blew out Boise 32-13 in 2001.

I just remember the brutal asskicking session the dawgs inflicted on them in 2005.

That’s 4 losses to SEC teams with 3 of them being blowouts 41-14, 48-13, and 32-13.

You can say those games are irrelevant because they were in the early 2000s. Not true. Boise was running through the WAC for the last decade and in the first season that Ark walloped them 41-14 in 2000 that was their only loss that year. Nuff said.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
5:26 pm

Bona Fide,

Im not crowning them anything. Their Defense is horrible and LSU will calm Cam down. I dont think LSU offense can score enough to win.That is the point I was making.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
5:31 pm

tell me again, when UGA played Boise, Boise wasn’t on a winning streak, they lost their last game the season before. And it was a top 15 UGA team (eventually top 10) vs an unranked Boise team who had their worst season in the past 10 years. Kudos to UGA for playing well and stomping them but I don’t think it has much relevance today.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
5:31 pm

@MURPHY

Based on their Arkansas game only, I would tend to agree. After watching the ups and downs in the SEC so far this season, I am not willing to hazard a guess as to the outcome of the Auburn vs. LSU game. It could be a typical, low-scoring affair, or it could be a blowout by either team. I will definitely watch it, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
5:32 pm

Boise State, on the other hand, has never had any relevance.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
5:34 pm

Bona Fide,

I agree,I dont know who to pick. Crazy season in the SEC

Tide Rising

October 19th, 2010
5:35 pm

I just noticed that only 3 short years ago Boise was 10-3 playing in the WAC. How in the hell do you lose 3 games playing in the WAC? Fresno State is the only other team that is decent from time to time and Hawaii was ok but not great under June Jones. The other teams are horrendous- Utah State, New Mexico state, San Jose, Nevada, Idaho, and La. Tech. I could see a loss to one other team or an upset loss but how the hell do you lose 3 in one year playing in this conference?

WHO CARES?

October 19th, 2010
5:39 pm

GTBob,

who cares about Boise St? Im sure they would kick Tech’s a..! Why dont yall put them in the Almost Collegiate Conference!!!!

WHO CARES?

October 19th, 2010
5:41 pm

All Boise St is-Window dressing for ESPN!!

Tide Rising

October 19th, 2010
5:42 pm

GTBob,

I agree that Boise is a good team and I would not bet any crazy money on Georgia beating them but I certainly wouldn’t bet any crazy money on Boise beating Georgia either. But judging from Boise’s games against the sec in the 2000s its pretty obvious this team would be an 8-4 team at best playing a week in and week out slate in the SEC. 3 blowouts in 4 games against the sec in the 2000s and 3 of those sec teams were average to mediocre.

Ark 41 Boise 14 Ark went 6-6 in the sec this year
South Carolina 32 Boise 13 Carolina went 8-4 in the sec this year
Ark 38 Boise 31 Ark went 9-4 in the sec this year
Georgia 48 Boise 13 Georgia did go 13-1 this year

If Boise could at least make more than one out of 4 of these games remotely close I would respect them a little more but they didn’t.

Boise Dawg

October 19th, 2010
5:49 pm

Tide are you serious? That has to take the top prize of what has been a blog full of stupid posts.

The year in question was the year that Hawaii went undefeated and played in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. It was a rebuilding year for BSU and they lost a 1st round offensive linemen and had no quarterback. They redshirted Kellen Moore that year and played a senior back up. The only WAC team they lost to was Hawaii. Their other loss was at Washington and then they lost their bowl game to East Carolina 41-38. Boise State has only had 1 loss since that game and that was to TCU in their 2008 bowl game.

What is really funny about your argument… I seem to recall Alabama going 7-6 that same year and losing to Louisiana-Monroe. I can’t believe the BCS let Alabama play for the championship last year… they lost to La-Monroe in 2007. They should be kicked out of the SEC…. see the stupidity?

Boise Dawg

October 19th, 2010
5:58 pm

Tide why does 2000, 2001 or even 2005 even matter? Do you realize in the 1990s BSU was still a Division II school? Their progression has been amazing. Alabama was a crap program in 2000, 2001 and 2005 so what is your point?

Do you realize they have dominated a weak WAC… that they have never lost a WAC game at home? That they haven’t lost a regular season game to anyone in 2.5 years? That they beat Utah 36-3 in 2006.. the same Utah program that kicked the crap out of Alabama.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
5:59 pm

La-Monroe = Boise State

Neither qualifies as a National Championship contender — I don’t care who they beat way back when.

Tide Rising

October 19th, 2010
6:00 pm

Boise dawg,

I guess I have to impolitely point out that utter stupidity of your points. So what if Boise’s losses were to East Carolina- not a bcs conference, and to Washington which wasn’t very good then and only illustrates my point that they can’t compete on a regular basis with a bcs type conference. As for your assinine point that Boise was in a rebuilding year, redshirted Moore, had lost an NFL caliber lineman- for God’s sake what in the hell does that have to do with anything you blithering idiot? Doesn’t everybody lose great players and have to redshirt other players. And before you kick us out for the indignity of losing to La Monroe you might as well kick your own arse out. Why? Because La Monroe beat us by 7 that year and Georgia beat us by 3 in an OT game. Apparently they were better than the dogs in regulation. And btw LA Monroe is the last team to beat us at home. No sec team has beaten us at home since that game. Now STFU IDIOT.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
6:00 pm

Tide Rising, my main reason for betting lots of money on Boise St would be simple. If I am given even odds on a team that should be favored by probably a touchdown or more then i’m going to bet a lot on them. The expected value increase alone makes the bet a good bet. If I lose, oh well, it happens.

As for the previous losses to SEC opponents, like I said, I don’t think they are relevant today. I think their team is significantly better on both sides of the ball. They are currently ranked number 1 in the country in total defense. In 2005 they were ranked 51st. They are currently number 4 in total offense. In 2005 they were 29th. Its not the same team as it was back then.

Peteybuck

October 19th, 2010
6:02 pm

To address the comment that Boise state would get CHOMPED & ROMPED by Alabama, Auburn and Oklahoma–we already CHOMPED & ROMPED Oklahoma. Their was also a comment about Boise State not being able to beat Oregon or Oklahoma—HELLO, we beat Oregon the last two years and Oklahoma the year before that—so it is not an accuate statement. Also, we can’t just “JOIN” a conference and we acknowledge we are in our infancy compared to most BCS schools. Whether you like it or not Boise State IS A VERY GOOD TEAM and be careful what you ask for……..