The Humans Love Boise; the computers don’t

In 2003 USC finished No. 1 in the two human polls used in the BCS Standings (AP and Coaches). But when the final numbers were crunched, LSU and Oklahoma were the top two teams in the BCS standings and played for the national championship in the Sugar Bowl. USC won the Rose Bowl and finished No. 1 in the AP poll and was decared national champs by that news service.

Not wanting to have split national champions again,  the BCS changed its formula so that the human polls would count two thirds while the computers only accounted for one third. The thinking was that if the human polls agreed on the top two teams, the computers  would not override the will of the voters. The powers that be talked about making it a rule where the computers would only be used if the human polls did not agree. They ultimately decided not to put that language in the rules.

But right now  Boise State is No. 2 in the human polls but No. 3 in the BCS Standings. And Boise’s computer rankings (No. 7 average right now)  are only going to get worse as the season goes along.

Here are a couple of charts that show you what Boise is up against. The Broncos  may have won the hearts and minds of enough voters, but the computers, as we all know, don’t have a heart.

Here is a chart of the Top 10 teams in the BCS Standings and the teams in the Top 25 that they have played or are scheduled to play:

OKLAHOMA (4) : Florida State (17), Texas (19), Missouri (11), Oklahoma State (14)

BOISE STATE (1): Virginia Tech (25)

OREGON (2): Stanford (12), Arizona (18)

AUBURN (5): LSU (6), Alabama (8), Miss. State (24), Arkansas (23), South Carolina (21)

TCU (1): Utah (9)

LSU (5): Miss. State (24),  West Virginia (20), Auburn (4), Alabama (8), Arkansas (23)

MICHIGAN STATE: (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)

ALABAMA (5): Arkansas (23), S. Carolina (21), LSU (6), Miss. State (24), Auburn (4)

UTAH (1): TCU (5)

OHIO STATE (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)

You’ll note that Boise State has played or will play only one team in the Top 25: No. 25 Virginia Tech.

 Just for fun, here are the rankings of the rest of Boise State’s opponents according to the CBSSports.com Top 120:

Nevada (6-1)………….29

Hawaii (5-2)…………..38

Fresno State (4-2)..…63

La. Tech (3-4)…………77

Idaho (3-3)…………….82

Utah State (2-5)………86

The point is that as the season goes along Boise’s computer numbers are only going to drop. But chances are the voters won’t move them from No. 2 as as long the Broncos keep winning impresssively. The  exception I could see to that is if Auburn or LSU stays undefeated. One of those teams could eventually jump Boise.

So we could be in a situation where Boise stays No. 2 in the human polls but does not play in the Big Game.

Won’t that be a fun argument?  Would you have a problem with that? Woud it/Shoud it blow up the BCS?

And if it happens, could we have split national champions again? Could the AP decide to make Boise its national champ?

Please follow me on Twitter:

www.twitter.com/MrCFB

338 comments Add your comment

Ghostballer

October 19th, 2010
1:31 pm

Boise doesn’t deserve jack squat.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
1:34 pm

jumbeauxtiger,

That week off scares me to death.I would be shocked if we see the same team that played Miss St. Urban is feeling the heat and I wouldnt bet against him in this situation. If they perform againg UGA like they did Miss St I say that program is in much worse shape than ours. Done see UF not getting this fixed.

Soy un perdedor

October 19th, 2010
1:36 pm

Florida won’t need to fix much to compete with Georgia. Defeating Vandy and Tennessee doesn’t wash away the rest of the season for the Dawgs.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
1:37 pm

jumbeauxtiger,

I cant wait to watch yall play AU. Should be another SEC Classic.

Driving Ms Dooley

October 19th, 2010
1:39 pm

Tony,
If the first polls were voted on today, who would you vote higher, Auburn of Boise State? And based on what criteria?

Atticus

October 19th, 2010
1:39 pm

Boise DID play a big game on the road…after they beat Ok in the Fiesta Bowl. They got run out ofthe stadium by a decent UGA. No comparison. They play no schedule.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
1:40 pm

Soy un peredor,

Thanks for your constructive comments.

Blue

October 19th, 2010
1:41 pm

You people that put “end of story” and “nuff said” DO realize that this does not necessarily make you the victor in the discussion/debate…right? Nuff said…

Gen Neyland

October 19th, 2010
1:41 pm

We can be-yatch and moan till the cows come home about the current BCS system in D-I but until TV, the NCAA, Bowl BOD’s and all bowl sponsers devise a plan to hammer out a system that pays all for revising the current system, we’re stuck with what we have with more crappy bowls on the gridiron horizen. We, the fan, don’t have a vote in the world of high finance and commerce. All we have is the off/on switch on our remotes which can be our torch as we march to the castle.

Soy un perdedor

October 19th, 2010
1:41 pm

The truth often hurts.

Dog in TN

October 19th, 2010
1:45 pm

My trust is with the computers. Most journalist vote with their feelings, not their heads. Don’t let facts get in the way of feeling good about your vote. Boise has no business in the top 24. They may be ok at 25.

LLoyd Christmas

October 19th, 2010
1:46 pm

I’ve got the dogs going all the way………..to the crapper where they belong!

Soy un perdedor

October 19th, 2010
1:46 pm

@Gen Neyland

You nailed it. The current system prevails because it generates revenue. If you don’t like the current system, then stop attending or watching games and stop purchasing team merchandise.

Otherwise, just cheer for your team and enjoy the ride.

Are you kidding

October 19th, 2010
1:47 pm

Auburn has replaced Florida with the SEC ref teams. All of the apparent predetermined calls that went to Florida over the past 4 years now suddenly are going to Auburn. The Clemson QB was speared in the back. Both td calls that went Auburn’s way against Arkansas were simply bogus. And which ref called the first td- did the SEC ever fess up?

are you kidding me?

October 19th, 2010
1:50 pm

Auburn has replaced Florida as the darling of the SEC ref teams. All of the calls that Florida received over the past 4 years have suddenly shifted to Awburn. The Clemson QB was speared in the back.
Both of the 2 td calls that Awburn was given were bogus. Did the SEC ever announce the mystery official that called td on the first fumble at the 1?

Referee Hee

October 19th, 2010
1:54 pm

What we say is GOLD! We can ruin your life, so watch it prople!

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
1:55 pm

Atticus, Boise St beat Oklahoma the year after they lost to UGA. Not the year before.

Driving Ms Dooley

October 19th, 2010
2:20 pm

No polls till November. There’s your answer–if you won’t give us a playoff.

And voters must take a football IQ test. Questions:

1. what is the weight of an average offensive lineman in the SEC? The PAC 10? The Boise State group of D-1 wannabes?

2. What is the average coaches salary in these leagues?

3. What is the average attendance at games in these leagues?

4. How many NFL players have come from these leagues in the past 5 years?

You get the idea.

PapaDawg

October 19th, 2010
2:28 pm

Cmon Half the teams in the SEC could whip Boise easily. No way they are in the top 5

Will

October 19th, 2010
2:43 pm

I want everyone to really think about this one…even UGA haters…. Let’s say University of GA were playing Boise State in a game at a neutral site. If your life depended on picking the correct winner, how many of you would actually pick a team like Boise State to beat UGA? I would venture to say if you were honest with yourselves not many of you would pick Boise State. Deep down inside you know UGA has the athletes to beat anyone in the nation and BSU does not. This is why the computers hate BSU.

Jeff

October 19th, 2010
2:51 pm

Who get’s the penn st. job when it opens? and will it be open soon? is this still considered an elite job by people in the business? just wondering

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
2:55 pm

Jeff,

The question is not who gets the job,but who would want to follow that legacy?

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
3:02 pm

The Penn State job will be open soon, and I think that it is considered an elite position.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
3:03 pm

@Will

Even this year’s Georgia squad would have a very good shot at winning that game.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
3:05 pm

BTW: I’m not a “UGA Hater”, but I don’t consider Georgia to be a very good football team this year. Still, they’re probably better than BS University.

are you kidding me?

October 19th, 2010
3:12 pm

Ga is better than Boise State??? Surely you are joking. Do the numbers 60 and 65 and 74 for Ga vs 2-5 for Boise State mean anything to you.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
3:13 pm

You guys are completely insane if you would bet your lives that UGA would beat Boise St. The notion that Boise doesn’t have any talent is a very false one also. Boise has plenty of talent.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
3:15 pm

Bona Fide,

Agree,Penn St is an elite job. Dont they have a staff thats been togeather a very long time? Isnt one of the assistance in line for that job? Just curious. Isnt an X-UGA q.b on that staff. Brian Smith?

PapaDawg

October 19th, 2010
3:17 pm

This Boise St team reminds me of the Hawaii team who alot of people thought should be #1 and we saw what the Dawgs did to them in the Sugar Bowl.

are you kidding me?

October 19th, 2010
3:17 pm

And Ga has the athletes to beat any team in the nation??? What are you drinking over there??
do the numbers 3-4 ring a bell with you? And you can tell us all on here that you would bet the house on Ga vs Boise State on a neutral field???/ Man alive. It’s worse than I thought.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
3:18 pm

GTBob,

Im a UGA fan and I would have to agree with you. I dont know if we could beat Boise this year. I wouldnt bet my life on it but I do think we would sure enough play them tough.

are you kidding me?

October 19th, 2010
3:19 pm

Boise State does not remind me of Hawaii at all- BS has talent on both sides of the ball and plays good defense. Just my opinion.

Will

October 19th, 2010
3:29 pm

Many of you are not being honest with yourselves at all……You know you would pick UGA if you had to. Trust me, I know what I’m talking about with regards to college football, if you don’t believe me go to my post last Friday at 1:10pm on this same blog you will see my weekend predictions- truly amazing!

are you kidding me?

October 19th, 2010
3:32 pm

You would bet large sums of money on Ga vs BS?

are you kidding me?

October 19th, 2010
3:33 pm

How could you possibly think that Ga could beat any team in college football because of the athletes that they have?

are you kidding me?

October 19th, 2010
3:34 pm

And no I don’t trust your judgment after that statement.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
3:36 pm

Will, if my life was on the line and I had to pick either Boise or UGA I would pick Boise without even considering it. And yes, i’m being completely honest with myself. The fact that you wouldn’t really makes me question if you have seen both teams play this season.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
3:39 pm

I’m not kidding you. Boise State football is a joke.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
3:40 pm

Then again, so is Georgia Tech football.

PapaDawg

October 19th, 2010
3:45 pm

Would you bet large sums of money on Boise State against Georgia

jumbeauxtiger

October 19th, 2010
3:50 pm

Murphy,

I agree that the Florida team that plays Georgia will not be the same team that played Miss St. The Dawgs are playing better so I expect it to be a very good game. If the game was played this week my guess would be that the Gators would be favored by 1-2.

I’m looking forward to the Auburn game this weekend too. It’s going to be interesting if we can slow down Cam. He looks awesome right now.

PapaDawg

October 19th, 2010
3:52 pm

GT you need to stay out of this,you LOST TO KANSAS

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
3:52 pm

If Vegas gave me an even spread on the game then yes, I would bet very large sums of money on Boise St against UGA. Too bad there is no way Boise St would not be favored.

The Taxman Cometh

October 19th, 2010
3:52 pm

Let’s vote on who should be there. Been there done that. Bring on the playoff….

Gator Hater

October 19th, 2010
3:53 pm

Jeremy Foley just announced that for 2011 he is replacing Agnes Scott with the University of Phoenix Online.

PapaDawg

October 19th, 2010
3:55 pm

I like Auburn but I think if you take away Cams running you’ll shut them down. He’s not a very good passer and their defense is really suspect.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
4:03 pm

PaPaDawg,

Auburn defense isnt suspect it’s horrible! Ted Roof will not have a job next year.Did you see Chizik up his rear during the Ark game? He was pissed!

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
4:05 pm

To beat Auburn,it appears you will have to get in a scoring match with them. Thats a tall order to complete.

wxwax

October 19th, 2010
4:06 pm

Read the New York Times opinion piece this weekend to find out what a sham the BCS computer rankings are.

The process used to create them is ridiculed by proper statisticians.

Bona Fide

October 19th, 2010
4:23 pm

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
4:05 pm

To beat Auburn,it appears you will have to get in a scoring match with them. Thats a tall order to complete.

Auburn vs. MSU – 17 Points

Auburn vs. Clemson – 27 Points

Auburn vs. SC – 35 Points

Auburn vs. KY – 37 Points

You make a very broad statement based upon a single game.