The Humans Love Boise; the computers don’t

In 2003 USC finished No. 1 in the two human polls used in the BCS Standings (AP and Coaches). But when the final numbers were crunched, LSU and Oklahoma were the top two teams in the BCS standings and played for the national championship in the Sugar Bowl. USC won the Rose Bowl and finished No. 1 in the AP poll and was decared national champs by that news service.

Not wanting to have split national champions again,  the BCS changed its formula so that the human polls would count two thirds while the computers only accounted for one third. The thinking was that if the human polls agreed on the top two teams, the computers  would not override the will of the voters. The powers that be talked about making it a rule where the computers would only be used if the human polls did not agree. They ultimately decided not to put that language in the rules.

But right now  Boise State is No. 2 in the human polls but No. 3 in the BCS Standings. And Boise’s computer rankings (No. 7 average right now)  are only going to get worse as the season goes along.

Here are a couple of charts that show you what Boise is up against. The Broncos  may have won the hearts and minds of enough voters, but the computers, as we all know, don’t have a heart.

Here is a chart of the Top 10 teams in the BCS Standings and the teams in the Top 25 that they have played or are scheduled to play:

OKLAHOMA (4) : Florida State (17), Texas (19), Missouri (11), Oklahoma State (14)

BOISE STATE (1): Virginia Tech (25)

OREGON (2): Stanford (12), Arizona (18)

AUBURN (5): LSU (6), Alabama (8), Miss. State (24), Arkansas (23), South Carolina (21)

TCU (1): Utah (9)

LSU (5): Miss. State (24),  West Virginia (20), Auburn (4), Alabama (8), Arkansas (23)

MICHIGAN STATE: (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)

ALABAMA (5): Arkansas (23), S. Carolina (21), LSU (6), Miss. State (24), Auburn (4)

UTAH (1): TCU (5)

OHIO STATE (2): Wisconsin (13), Iowa (15)

You’ll note that Boise State has played or will play only one team in the Top 25: No. 25 Virginia Tech.

 Just for fun, here are the rankings of the rest of Boise State’s opponents according to the CBSSports.com Top 120:

Nevada (6-1)………….29

Hawaii (5-2)…………..38

Fresno State (4-2)..…63

La. Tech (3-4)…………77

Idaho (3-3)…………….82

Utah State (2-5)………86

The point is that as the season goes along Boise’s computer numbers are only going to drop. But chances are the voters won’t move them from No. 2 as as long the Broncos keep winning impresssively. The  exception I could see to that is if Auburn or LSU stays undefeated. One of those teams could eventually jump Boise.

So we could be in a situation where Boise stays No. 2 in the human polls but does not play in the Big Game.

Won’t that be a fun argument?  Would you have a problem with that? Woud it/Shoud it blow up the BCS?

And if it happens, could we have split national champions again? Could the AP decide to make Boise its national champ?

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338 comments Add your comment

Pork Rhinds

October 19th, 2010
11:46 am

If OK stays undefeated and at #1, and Auburn, Alabama, or LSU comes out of the SEC with one loss, there is NO WAY Boise should play for the National Championship. Boise has played well in big games, but when you play only ONE top #25 team, a team that got manhandled at home by an FCS team no doubt, you haven’t earned a shot. If that upsets you, lobby for a playoff – but if the BCS is supposed to give us the two BEST teams in college FB, Boise is out.

Boise Me

October 19th, 2010
11:49 am

Play in a real conference–in the SEC, boise loses 3-4 games.

3rdn8

October 19th, 2010
11:49 am

5IML

you’ve just described the biggest issue. Bama (McElroy) has become too predictable. DCs in the league see this as well. I thought the Ole Miss defense played a super game, and their only real strength is the DL.

I compare McElroy with Jay Barker. The biggest difference is: Jay Barker only got to throw the ball 35+ times in his dreams. I do hope you’re right about McElroy fighting through this slump. I for one am pulling for him….if that helps.

dawgfacedboy

October 19th, 2010
11:51 am

Not a tech/uga fan- I read it correctly A hole. My question is why you believe that conference to be good just because UTah and BYU play in it?? They are in the same boat as TCU and BOise. They play MAYBE 1 tough game a year (that is if you consider Notre Dame to be good, I don’t). So basically you want to put 4 teams who play nobody in a conference with eachother and call it good????

That doesn’t even remotely make sense. I’ll get my head out of the waterbowl when you get yours out of your a$$!!

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
11:51 am

Micah, there is no proof at all that Boise St can’t beat anybody in the country this year. Its annoying to hear people say that Boise St could never hang with the big boys in a big game when in recent seasons they have proven the exact opposite. They beat Oregon the past two seasons, Oregon is number one this season. Should we believe that Oregon is that much better and that Boise St is that much worse this season without any proof of either being true? Can you say for sure that Boise St couldn’t beat Oregon right now?

Soy un perdedor

October 19th, 2010
11:52 am

@Look for CPJ to be Clemson’s next head coach..

The Boise State nonsense has become a rather boring pounding of a long dead horse, but your post takes the cake for absurdity.

Clemson might well be in the market for a new Head Coach, but I doubt that they’re looking to trade down.

Soy un perdedor

October 19th, 2010
11:54 am

@Micah

You misunderstand. GTBob’s argument is that Lousiana-Monroe should be ranked in the Top Ten.

3rdn8

October 19th, 2010
11:56 am

Ever wonder how these discussions would go if we weren’t all cloaked in anonymity? Can’t imagine this type of name calling in your local pub. Seems a bit……………..cowardly.

Soy un perdedor

October 19th, 2010
11:58 am

@GTBob

Oregon did beat Tennessee. They must be a real powerhouse, eh?

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:01 pm

3rdn8,

This name caling thing in a pub would cause a riot.Would be plenty of fights over this. There is no room left in the Atens-Clarke Count Jail so make sure the pub isnt in Athens. lol

slaughdog

October 19th, 2010
12:02 pm

SECisFOOTBALL—-

typical DELUSIONAL DUMB A$$ BAMA MORON—you think the world rotates around your football program. You just refuse to give credit where credit is due. Too much inbreeding, I guess.

War CAM Eagle

T3

October 19th, 2010
12:05 pm

Only one thing seems liek a GUARANTEE this year.

If there are more than 2 undefeated teams, there will be LAWSUITS.

Just consider for example, how these teams & THEIR Presdients
will respond if they all end the season undefeated and dont get an invite to the BCS-CG:

OK
Boise State
Michigan State
Oregon
Auburn

The point here is the BCS is a fraudulent CARTEL.

The BCS has re-created the problems is was supposed to solve.

Only a playoff system will fix most or all of this charade.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
12:08 pm

Soy un perdedor, Oregon might be the worst team in the country, who knows. The coaches, and writers of America seem to think they are the best right now though.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
12:08 pm

Soy un perdedor, Oregon might be the worst team in the country, who knows. The coaches, and writers of America seem to think they are the best right now though.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:09 pm

3rdn8 & 5IML,

Whats your take on the Dawgs over the last 2 weeks? Do we beat Kentucky and Florida?

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:10 pm

GTBob,

Oregon is very talented. I think they will struggle with UCLA on thurs nite. Just a feeling I have.

NCAA Critic

October 19th, 2010
12:11 pm

It will never make sense that a team can be in an athletic organization, have an undefeated season, and then be told that it has not met the criteria for a chance to win the organization’s championship. Can you imagine the outrage that will be unleashed if Auburn finishes undefeated and is again left out of the championship game. The folks in Eugene and Norman will be nearly as angry if their undefeated teams draw the short straw, and the fans from the “lesser schools” would not be happy, either.

Nor is it appropriate that a team can have one loss while playing several difficult opponents and fall in line behind an undefeated team that clearly plays against lesser competition. The NCAA must get rid of this system, or stop call “the game” a championship.

SECfan

October 19th, 2010
12:13 pm

auburn runs the table

LSU’s defense is not as good as AU’s offense
LSU’s offense is worse than AU’s defense (secondary)
AU’s o line will give newton time to pass or run before the d line shows up in the backfield

even if auburn’s d stops a couple TD’s and the other team settles for field goals, it is a win. the AU offense is too fast scoring for the opposing team to catch up. so it is almost a moot point that AU’s defense is weaker than others. since their offense is so potent it wont matter. not to mention the D picks it up in the 4th quarter. when they need a crucial play, they have always delivered.

strength,resiliency, and a little bit of luck

3rdn8

October 19th, 2010
12:16 pm

Murph

I like UGAs chances. UK is inconsistent, and Meyer hasn’t found ANY answers yet.

In the meanwhile, Richt has weathered a real @#$% storm, and is quietly getting better play from his team. The same can be said for Mr. Miles.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:17 pm

SECfan,

If Auburn’s defense was even close to being able to stop a passing game I would agree with you,but no-way they win out with Ted Roof calling the defensive plays. Chizik just about strangled him on the sidelines during the Ark game. Chizik needs to be more involved with that defense to keep yall winning

SECfan

October 19th, 2010
12:18 pm

yall? im not even an auburn fan lol i went to south carolina
im just calling it like i see it

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:19 pm

3rdn8,

Im real worried about Fla more so than Kentucky. I dont like Urban being behind the eight ball along with having 2 weeks to fix his offensive issue’s. If we beat the Cats we will carry alot of momentum to Jacksonville. We must win these 2 upcomming games to say we have turned the corner this year.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:22 pm

SECfan,

Thats ok-Just blogging on your comments. Its a shame yall lost last week.I really wanted Spurrier to go to the dome!

3rdn8

October 19th, 2010
12:23 pm

Murph

you have to worry about UF. They simply have too many good athletes to be playing this poorly. But nothing Meyer has tried has worked to date. I don’t know if two weeks is enough time for him to fix the problems at Gainesville.

3rdn8

October 19th, 2010
12:24 pm

Enjoyed talking football. Hope each of you has a good day.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
12:24 pm

NCAA Critic, I 100% agree with your thoughts on the BCS system. It’s not technically the NCAA’s fault though. They do not sanction the BCS or recognize its champions. There has never been a Division 1 (FBS) college football NCAA champion. They only recognize FCS and Division 3 championships. They do not recognize any champions in any sports that are not determined by a playoff.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:25 pm

3rdn8,

I live down here. One of my good friends is a ga there and another friend has a kid on the team.They both tell me Urban is on a mission.

BJohnDawg

October 19th, 2010
12:27 pm

The reason no teams call Boise State has nothing to do with fear. It has to do with Boise wants a home and home senario,,,,and the bigger schools are not going to give up the money when they can pay a non BCS conference school to come it for a one and done payday. If Boise is willing to schedule that arrangement, they would see more BCS conference schools ringing their phones.

Boise is a good team. But in the SEC they would be a middle of the road team. Even in the East. You think they are going to beat Fla, Ga, Tn, KY, and SC , and play vandy and 3 west teams and win the East. I think they would end up like Carolina with 2 losses and struggling to stay in the Top 25. Or Georgia just trying to find out what kind of team they really have. They looked unimpressive against VA Tech. TCU impresses me more than Boise State.

Soy un perdedor

October 19th, 2010
12:30 pm

NCAA Critic

October 19th, 2010
12:11 pm

It will never make sense that a team can be in an athletic organization, have an undefeated season, and then be told that it has not met the criteria for a chance to win the organization’s championship.

Sure it does — whenever there are multiple undefeated teams. This situation will always create arguments, since the lesser undefeated team(s) will desire equal credit for their undefeated season(s), although they may be obviously less credit-worthy. These arguments would not be eliminated by a playoff scheme.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:30 pm

The Boise thing is like out growing a pair of shoes. The shoes get to small you have to move on to bigger ones. Boise has outgrown their conference and their schedule. Time for them to move to a bigger conference and tougher schedule. Boise has done a great job being succesful but its time to get in with the bigger boys now.

CollegeFan

October 19th, 2010
12:32 pm

If the computers have no heart, the humans don’t have brains. The human votes predictably follow win-loss records and only take into account strength of schedule on the last week, when they vote teams or out of the championship game. I think that Boise is a great team and deserve a lot of credit for what they have accomplished. But, with that schedule, they just don’t deserve to play for a national championship. I doubt that many people who vote them so highly would bet that they would make it through a playoff.

Old Dawg

October 19th, 2010
12:34 pm

If Boise wants to be considered for BCS championship games, it should have joined the PAC 10 or another major conference when all the shuffling was going on, get rid of that blue carpet and get some uniforms that don’t look like something out of a 1960’s rollerball game. The Broncos have played well in bowls and in out-of-conference games in the last few years, but going undefeated in little league is like saying Iraq had a chance during Desert Storm … it ain’t gonna happen.

I know the school’s fans are excited etc. But this is a week in-week out competition issue and bringing something to the table other than beating Southwest Outer Idaho School for Deaf-Mutes and Polio Victims (no disrespect to those affected) for conference championships doesn’t make the cut!

Soy un perdedor

October 19th, 2010
12:35 pm

Tony is only guessing that the human voters will continue to rank BSU highly. Humans are also capable of recognizing variations in strength of schedule. There may be a few voters whose only desire is to create controversy with their votes, but the majority of the voters will not likely “love” Boise quite so much as we reach the end of the season.

BAMA dude

October 19th, 2010
12:46 pm

Again, UT vs. Bama will NOT be close if Dooley follows through on starting a true freshman at QB in his first game. The one area our defense excels is forcing TOs, specifically INTs. The only two teams to put up any kind of points had NFL caliber wideouts and a QB that could get them the ball. I see this game looking a lot like the UF game with Bama winning the TO battle by 3 or more. Think the UT-UGA game, that’s exactly what happened there.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:48 pm

Bama dude,

Be careful with Rocky Top. You might be surprised a little bit.

BAMA dude

October 19th, 2010
12:49 pm

Old Dawg, word is that no one would take them. The Southern California and Arizona schools apparently have no desire to travel to Idaho in October and Novenmber so they can play on a blue turf in front of 35k people. Imagine that? Some schools were built for big time athletics, some weren’t.

BAMA dude

October 19th, 2010
12:50 pm

Murphy, I can’t see it being close if they start a noob at QB. Saban’s schemes will eat him alive. Tough to play D for four quarters when you’re always in bad field position.

FLA DAWG

October 19th, 2010
12:51 pm

The BCS should give Boise a shot if they run the table.
If they win they will be justifiably happy. If they lose they will have been given their shot and we won’t hear anymore about it.

Can you say, “Playoffs”?

bamalovestowin

October 19th, 2010
12:54 pm

I look for the NCAA to take away our grayshirt medical program which is going to make things harder

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
12:59 pm

FLA DAWG,

I agree. Let them play in the big one and see what happens.

JMac12203

October 19th, 2010
12:59 pm

Auburn has a great offense, and Cam is the main reason. However LSU has the best “D” he has seen so far this season, so let’s see what happens. Remember that Clemson held Auburn to 17 points, and their D is not as good as the one he will face this weekend. Look for a final of something like 24-20, just not sure who will be the 24 and who will be the 20. Usually the team with the best D will beat the team with the best O, but in this game I feel like the determining factor will be turnovers. If LSU plays a clean game, they win, and jump over Boise in the BCS.

LCDawg

October 19th, 2010
1:01 pm

Sorry folks…Boise State gets no respect from me because they only play 1-2 REAL teams a year and schedule them very favorably for success i.e. the first game of the season (VT) which they were able to prepare for the entire off season and then a bowl game when they have 5-6 weeks to game plan for that game. Blah, blah to the fans who say they can’t control their opponents because of the conference they are in. Switch conferences (PAC 10?) or schedule more IN SEASON big games then come talk to me about your Cinderella story. It’s not fair to the other conferences that beat the hell out of each other week in and week out.

Tick

October 19th, 2010
1:05 pm

Is Boise St. one of the two best teams in the country? I don’t know, but I know probably no one on here would have thought Butler could do what they did in the NCAA Basketball Tournament. To just write off a team because their from a small conference is just wrong. They’ve proven in past bowl games (BCS bowl games, see Oklahoma), they can play with the big boys. They returned 22 starters from an outstanding team last year, and they haven’t laid an egg yet this year, like many others have. I personally hope they make and win the National Championship, and I hope it puts a monkey wrench in the wallets of these power conferences who don’t want any change, and maybe it’ll bring about a much needed playoff format for college Football.

Scott

October 19th, 2010
1:10 pm

Why don’t we let Boise play TCU for the national championship of teams who don’t play anybody and let Oklahoma play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl for the national championship of those teams who do?

Silver Britches, Red Panties

October 19th, 2010
1:14 pm

Thank goodnes Coach Richt hasn’t allowed Our Beloved Dawgs to play Boise State. Their hideous blue field would clash horribly with our dashing black jerseys.

Soy un perdedor

October 19th, 2010
1:15 pm

@Tick

So put them in the basketball playoffs and shut up with the whining.

GTBob

October 19th, 2010
1:20 pm

Old Dawg, which major conferences were inviting Boise to join during the recent conference expansion wave? The PAC 10 never invited them. SEC never invited them. No one else did either except the MWC which they accepted. Do you expect Boise to force their way into a major conference? That doesn’t seem likely.

Bama Dave

October 19th, 2010
1:30 pm

Anybody else notice that ‘Beast from the East’ has been non-existent lately. He’s usually pretty vocal, but something has quietened him. Hmmmmmm.

jumbeauxtiger

October 19th, 2010
1:30 pm

Murph,

Right now I think the Dawgs will beat UK and are playing better than Florida. However, the Gators catch a break with the off week as they have a chance to regroup and rest. Florida has alot of talent and it would not surprise me to see them play much better after having some time off.

MURPHY

October 19th, 2010
1:31 pm

GTBob,

Wonder why the Big 12 doesnt invite Boise? Bet Big game Stoops would love that!