I had Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com on my radio show Monday. I believe that Jerry and Brad Edwards of ESPN.com are the best two numbers crunchers out there when it comes to the BCS.
The first BCS Standings will be released on Sunday and if everybody at the top of the polls wins, Jerry says he believes the first set of standings will look something like this:
1. Boise State
5. Ohio State
It will be fun having Boise State at No. 1 for the entertainment value alone. But Palm pointed out that if the big boys keep winning, Boise State will not stay there.
“You have to understand that the bigger conferences are just now getting into the meat of their schedules,” he said. “Their schedules will get better as the season goes on but Boise’s is only going to get worse.”
I wondered aloud yesterday if Alabama’s loss to South Carolina would cost the SEC a chance at a fifth straight national championship. I still believe that if an SEC team (Auburn or LSU) goes undefeated, the voters in the polls will move them into the top two in the final BCS standings on Dec. 5. I could be wrong about that but I don’t see a repeat of Auburn in 2004 given the success the SEC has had.
But here is the most intriguing question on the eve of the first BCS standings: My CBS buddy Tim Brando says he believes that when the season is over there will be no undefeated teams in the Big Six conferences. I think there will be at least one.
But what if an undefeated Ohio State, undefeated Oregon, or undefeated Big 12 champ (Oklahoma or Nebraska) finishes No.1 and the only other undefeated team is Boise State? Then, what if Alabama runs the table and avenges its only loss by beating South Carolina in the SEC championship game?
For that matter what if the SEC champion, whoever it is, finishes 12-1 and Boise State is 12-0? Who would/should the voters put in the No. 2 spot? Would they give the SEC champion the benefit of the doubt because it has won four straight national championships? Or would the voters decide they wanted to see somebody else in the BCS championship game? Would the voters decide that they wanted to give one of the little guys a chance?
Palm believes that because of the hit Boise will take in the computer polls, the Broncos actually need to finish No. 1 in the human polls to have a shot at in the final top two.
Tell me how you would vote and why.
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