First round of “playoffs” begins on Saturday

The first BCS Standings will be released two weeks from this Sunday. And right now it’s pretty clear that if they keep winning, Alabama and Ohio State are going to be 1-2.

But after that I’m not so sure. Will Boise State, the Cinderella, be No. 3?

And for all of you folks who want a playoff (and for the record, I want a four-team playoff),  just consider that a whole lot can happen between now and Oct. 17. Before the first BCS Standings are released:

No. 1 Alabama, which just escaped with a close win at Arkansas, will play No. 7 Florida (4-0) at home and No. 22 South Carolina (3-1) on the road.

No. 2 Ohio State will play No. 9 Wisconsin (4-0) on the road and at night.

No. 3 Boise State will play New Mexico State (0-3), Toledo (3-1), and San Jose State (1-3). The computers won’t like that.

No. 4 Oregon will play No. 13 Stanford (4-0) on Saturday  in a monster game.

No. 5 TCU willl play Colorado State (1-3), Wyoming (1-3), and BYU (1-3). Speaking of  BYU, the Cougars sure picked an interesting time in their football history to go independent.

No. 6 Nebraksa will play at Kansas State (4-0) and at home against No. 16 Texas (3-1).

No. 7 Florida will play at No. 1 Alabama (4-0) and at home against No. 10 LSU (4-0).

No. 8 Oklahoma will play No. 16 Texas in Dallas.

No. 9 Wisconsin will play at No. 21 Michigan State (4-0) and at home against No. 2 Ohio State (4-0).

No. 10 LSU will play Tennessee at home and at No. 7 Florida (4-0).

Given what you see on that schedule, how many upsets will there be and what will be the Top 5 in the first BCS Standings?

Here are mine:

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Oregon

4. Boise State

5. Nebraska

Your thoughts, please.

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408 comments Add your comment

BAMA dude

September 28th, 2010
8:59 am

The Tide SHOULD win this weekend. Without McElroy’s mistakes in the first half at Arky the game is tied or better at the half. The second half was a 17-3 whipping that would have turned the final score into something reaching blowout status without the mistakes. This ain’t Kentucky’s defense- I see UF struggling mightily on the offensive side, especially missing Demps. Look for Bama to win, somewhere around 27-20.

ga gator

September 28th, 2010
9:00 am

not patrick or whoever you are. You are correct Bama looks like a heavy weight contender. UF started off terrible but have gotten progressively better with a very young team, but not ready yet for Bama.

3rdn8

September 28th, 2010
9:00 am

Not Pat Sulley

Point taken, but PSU looked like anything but a ranked team, and have yet to play as one.

Arkansas is a different matter. I think they are pretty solid, and Bama’s win is big for the Tide.

That being said, Bama (my team btw) is a long way from being a world beater. So far, I think the coaching staff has done a remarkable job in bringing the defense along. But, they’ll have to be much improved to beat the Gators.

ga gator

September 28th, 2010
9:01 am

Bama dude, pretty good post. I predicted the same score at 7:50.

poopdawg

September 28th, 2010
9:05 am

ga gator not having 2 a days is not a reason for the Dawgs poor play. They practiced more days rather than having 2 a days. Same hours either way just spread out more.

Bama Slamma

September 28th, 2010
9:07 am

Not Pat Sulley

September 28th, 2010
9:09 am

3rdn8

Penn State was a cupcake team for Bama. The Big Ten would argue differently but we SEC people know that the Big Ten is a light weight football conference. But still, Penn State was ranked 18th when Bama played them. Ohio State does play a few ranked teams as well but they are all in the Big Ten, except for the Miami game.

Yes, Arkansas is a very tough team and hung in well against Bama until the second half. Too many mistakes on their end.

Not Pat Sulley

September 28th, 2010
9:09 am

Bama Slamma

Harsh dude. I like your style.

5IML

September 28th, 2010
9:09 am

3rd,

Actually, BAMA does not have to play better to beat Florida. UF has no passing game–shaky QB and mediocre receivers–and subpar rushing attach (without Demps). Our defense (which gained confidence and improved greatly in the second half) should have a lot easier time than we did in Arkansas. With that said, if the players take the attitude that I have, we will struggle.

Not Pat Sulley

September 28th, 2010
9:10 am

ga gator

No worries, UF is rebuilding and for a team that is rebuilding, it’s great for them to be ranked high. Most teams who are in rebuilding mode don’t even rank.

Miles

September 28th, 2010
9:10 am

Roll Tide…

Football Fan

September 28th, 2010
9:12 am

Hey Tony, is there any word on whether or not Ben Jones will be suspended this Saturday? The Dawgs are gonna need him in Boulder.

Paul in RDU

September 28th, 2010
9:12 am

Tony’s top 5 look coorect right now, but there is a great deal of football to be played. Heck Utah and Southern Cal (both unbeaten) could be the best teams in the nation – not that either of them will be playing in the BCS Championship Game.

Dostoyevskiy

September 28th, 2010
9:13 am

Like to see UGa lose its next 2, then win the rest. UGa would not know whether to fire CMR or give him a contract extension. UGa fans would be running in circles as usual, just faster.

3rdn8

September 28th, 2010
9:18 am

51ML

The thing that bothered me the most against Arkansas was the substitute pattern. Starting mid-way in the 3rd quarter, Bama quit substituting on defense. They played with the same LBs, and DBs the rest of the game. Darius played on one leg. That tells me a lot. The coaches aren’t finding many play makers on defense. If Mallet doesn’t have two brain-farts, Arkansas wins.

I do think that the Alabama offense is much better than it looked, and will score more points against UF. I look for both teams to post five or more TDs next Saturday.

SadDawg (formerly WonderDawg)

September 28th, 2010
9:20 am

“Tony if you read these comments, I have a question. Were there any other top programs in the country who shelved 2-a-days during training camp as Mark Richt did?”
*************************************
ga gator, what does it matter if a “top program” shelved 2-a-days. Being that UGA is currently ranked 55th, I think it would be a more pertinent question if you asked it this way, “Tony, were there any other programs ranked in the lower 50 in the country who shelved 2-a-days?”

T3

September 28th, 2010
9:20 am

Once again we have to tolerate Barnhart’s shameless, baseless and unethical defense of the BCS (Bowl Cartel System).

Tony would like you to believe that the regular season
is THE playoff sytem. It aint. No more than it is for ANY college sport.

The REALLY damning part is what Tony WONT TELL YOU.

Just last week, PLAOFFPAC (www.playoffpac.com) took the legal steps to file a lawsuit in Federal Court alleging that the Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, and Sugar Bowl ALL violated their strict Federal Non-Profit tax rules. PlayoffPac will win this suit as the evidence to tax cheating by these BCS bowls is overwhelming.

If PlayOffPAC wins this case, then that will be THE END of the Bowl system in its current “Cartel” format. As a result, it will all but force College Football into a national playoff system.

Here’s a snippet from the AP story:

Playoff PAC, a political action committee that wants the bowls replaced with a…championship playoff system…,plans to file a complaint with the Internal Revenue Service on Thursday against the operators of the Fiesta, Sugar and Orange Bowls, three of the five games that constitute the Bowl Championship Series (the others are the Rose Bowl and the BCS title game).

PlayoffPac has clearly outlined the way Bowls can continue to play an important part of collge football without all the BCS crap.

What Tony also wont tell you is that a study was done 3 years ago by a combined panel from the Pac10 and the Big12 that PROVED beyond any doubt that a playoff system would bring in almost 3 times MORE MONEY than the BCS.

Tony’s defense of the BCS continues to make him sound like a founding member of the “Flat Earth” Society.

Gator Mike

September 28th, 2010
9:21 am

The month of October should be interesting and fun to watch for all SEC Teams. The GATORS are young and improving, but BAMA is more experienced. As long as the GATORS continue to improve each week, they have a chance to reach Atlanta even if they loose to BAMA on Saturday provided they do not implode.
A lot of teams are still in the SEC Hunt!

Not Pat Sulley

September 28th, 2010
9:22 am

“reach Atlanta even if they loose ”

How does one “loose” something?

WDE

September 28th, 2010
9:23 am

Where do you think Auburn ends up in the next 2 weeks? They have a couple of what seem to be gimmes (ULM & UK), so with all the turnover in the top 10 due to matchups, will they crack the top-7 just by taking care of business?

3rdn8

September 28th, 2010
9:25 am

WDE

If AU beats ULM, and UK (and they should), I think they’ll be in the top 5. Several of these Top 10 teams will lose in the next two weeks.

Palladin

September 28th, 2010
9:28 am

Brilliant!!!

Just have Coach Richt reinstate two-a-days next year and you’ll win the National Championship.

Problem solved…

SadDawg (formerly WonderDawg)

September 28th, 2010
9:31 am

Great, shysters getting involved in football. That ought to make it better. Jeez . . .

T3

September 28th, 2010
9:32 am

http://playoffpac.com/news/Read.aspx?ID=287

Bye Bye BCS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Palladin

September 28th, 2010
9:33 am

@WDE

“Where do you think Auburn ends up in the next 2 weeks?”

I’d say that all depends upon the outcome of those two games. There is no “grand conspiracy” in the CFB polls. Win and you will ascend in the polls — lose and you can complain that the BCS is “unfair”.

5IML

September 28th, 2010
9:35 am

3rd,

It appears some of the substitutes just weren’t up to the task (first big road game in the SEC). That’s understandable when you consider the number of guys getting significant playing time for the first tiem this year. There’s not explanation for McElroy’s mistakes but hey. After the game, Dre admitted that he scared to death in the first half. Florida, one of FBS’s youngest teams, will be in that position on Saturday. On a neutral field, I think we’re the better team. At BDS, there should be no question.

Palladin

September 28th, 2010
9:35 am

Old School

September 28th, 2010
9:37 am

Texas rebounds and surprises an up and down OU.

Jim Mora, Sr.

September 28th, 2010
9:39 am

“Playoffs?!”

“You wanna talk about playoffs?!”

“Are you kidding me?!”

“Playoffs?!”

3rdn8

September 28th, 2010
9:42 am

51ML

I think you’re right, and hope you’re right, but I’m already nervous.

Looking over the past two seasons, Bama and UF have only played one really bad (losing) game each: UF vs Ole Miss in 2008, and Bama vs Utah that same year.

Both coaching staffs seem to get their teams ready to play regardless of the circumstances. I look for UF to be ready to face the gentle people in BDS, and to give Bama a game for sixty minutes.

LLoyd Christmas

September 28th, 2010
9:42 am

Big Dawg – there is a fine line between reality and fantasy. You have crossed over.

chilidawg

September 28th, 2010
9:43 am

What, no “UGA sneaks in the back door of the SECCG scenario” this week?

Richard

September 28th, 2010
9:44 am

It doesn’t matter at this point. Only ranking that matters will be at the end of the year. The better question Tony is why haven’t the votors that have said they wont rank Boise State higher than #3 been permenantly banned from voting?

Palladin

September 28th, 2010
9:49 am

@5IML

I don’t claim to know what Coach Saban was thinking, but leaving the defensive starters (even an injured Marcell Dareus) in the game accomplished two things. First, it built confidence in his players that they could persevere in adverse circumstances. Second, it demoralized the Arkansas offense. Don’t assume that Arky’s offense failed to notice that Alabama stopped subbing their defensive players. That was the final nail in the coffin of second half domination of the Razorbacks offense. Putting Mark Ingram in the Wildcat formation on every play and running the ball right down their throats accomplished the same thing for the Razorbacks defense.

3rdn8

September 28th, 2010
9:49 am

No one seems to be talking about LSU. Miles may be dumb (he only makes about $4.8 mil per year more than me), but LSU keeps winning. I think they may be the “decider” team in the SEC West this year. I can see them taking either AU, or Bama out of the hunt before the season is over.

Palladin

September 28th, 2010
9:54 am

@3rdn8

I agree regarding LSU. Even without a functional quarterback, one should never underestimate the luck of The Hat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bengals pull off a stunning upset — I just hope it doesn’t happen when they play Bama. ;-)

Not Pat Sulley

September 28th, 2010
9:54 am

“No one seems to be talking about LSU.”

Sure they are.

“I can see them taking either AU, or Bama out of the hunt before the season is over.”

Auburn/LSU game will be great this year. The two teams seem to be about even except for qb’s.

Old School

September 28th, 2010
9:55 am

3rdn8

I agree 100% about LSU. Seems their offense has at least found a RB and their D is playing lights out. If there is a better defensive player than Peterson I have not seen him.

wheelz007

September 28th, 2010
9:56 am

Florida will lose back-to-back games vs Alabama and LSU.

Crimson Truth

September 28th, 2010
9:57 am

I think the Bama coaching staff learned a lot about the defense in the Arkansas game. They came out playing a lot of zone to protect the youngsters, but once they decided to apply more pressure and let them play more man, Mallet crumbled. Brantley has a lot of potential, but the Bama defense is just starting to gell. Tide 34-13.

Not Pat Sulley

September 28th, 2010
9:57 am

“If there is a better defensive player than Peterson I have not seen him.”

Auburn has a couple of guys who’ve made SEC defensive players of the week.

3rdn8

September 28th, 2010
9:57 am

Palladin

Night game, Baton Rouge, bad mix.

Bama’s edge is that LSU doesn’t have a passing game. Hope it stays that way.

And I agree – LSU will upset someone this year.

3rdn8

September 28th, 2010
9:59 am

Not Pat Sulley

Peterson is a great player, but Josh Bynes is no slouch. If there is someone playing better at LB, I’d like to see him.

Palladin

September 28th, 2010
9:59 am

@Not Pat Sulley

From what I’ve see so far, quarterback is the ONLY advantage that Auburn has over LSU. That said, if he remains healthy, that might be the only advantage that Auburn needs.

wheelz007

September 28th, 2010
10:00 am

Alabama and LSU will BOTH be undefeated (an ugly undefeated for LSU) when they meet in Tiger Stadium on Nov 6th.

Joe Bob Thibodaux

September 28th, 2010
10:03 am

Tony, did you forget, LSU plays No. 1 Alabama? That is a far cry from what you reported: that LSU will play Tennessee.

5IML

September 28th, 2010
10:05 am

@Pallain and 3rd,

Regarding BAMA’s second substitution pattern, we must realize that each of our players has certain strengths. For example, Upshaw is a premium pass rusher. I think the coaching staff found a formula (scheme + players) that worked and decided to stick with it.

3rdn8

September 28th, 2010
10:06 am

Joe Bob Thibodaux

I think Barnhart’s article was addressing how the BCS standings would shake out over the next two weeks.

Iknow how2fish

September 28th, 2010
10:09 am

Wonder if CSS is happy he abandoned the run and then changed QB….

Not Pat Sulley

September 28th, 2010
10:10 am

“From what I’ve see so far, quarterback is the ONLY advantage that Auburn has over LSU. ”

Auburn has a few weapons other than Newton. Fortunately they are all freshmen and will be around a few years.

If you look at Florida, Tim Tebow was their biggest weapon.